A blast of cold air combining with a passing upper level storm system Friday may combine to produce the necessary conditions for a few light snow flurries in Central Texas. No travel problems are currently expected.
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we constantly gather new data and fine-tune the predicted impacts.
The first cold front we are dealing with this week brought sub-freezing wind chills to much of the area early Wednesday. A weak atmospheric disturbance traversing the state is bringing gray skies and a few spots of sleet/snow “virga” on radar (falling precipitation that is evaporating before it hits the ground). Were this precipitation to reach the ground locally today, it would likely fall as sprinkles of cold rain.
A stronger cold front moves through late Thursday, dropping temperatures to sub-freezing values throughout the atmospheric column (from the ground up into the clouds). This means that any precipitation that falls from late Thursday night through the day Friday would fall as snow.
The atmospheric disturbance forecast to move into Texas on Friday appears stronger and more moist than today’s system. That means that there is a higher likelihood that precipitation falling from the clouds Friday might actually make it to the ground.
Another interesting aspect of winter weather forecasting is that evaporation is a cooling process, so as “virga” continues to try its hardest to reach the ground, surface temperatures often fall several degrees. In some scenarios, this can be the determining factor in dropping temperatures to the freezing mark.
Chances of precipitation begin late-morning and end after midnight Friday.
Question marks that remain in this forecast
Should the upper level disturbance trek farther north than we currently expect, any precipitation that does reach the ground will likely remain north of our area
Should the air at the surface remain too dry on Friday, falling “virga” may never reach the ground
On the other side of the coin, should temperatures trend colder and precipitation trend heavier, minor impacts to bridges and elevated roadways are not completely out of the question
Even with an El Niño pattern last winter which typically brings colder, wetter weather, Central Texas has not seen a notable icing/snow event in nearly two full years. Check out the most recent times we have seen wintry weather in Central Texas below, straight from the KXAN Weather Diary:
This winter
Dec. 8, 2016 — An isolated sleet/snow flurry report from the Hill Country. No roadway impacts.
Last winter
Dec. 28, 2015 — A few morning snow flurries in eastern Hill Country and Williamson County. No roadway impacts.
Two winters ago
March 4/5, 2015 — Winter Storm Warning for Austin and Hill Country. Thunder sleet reported. Only a trace of sleet/snow measured in Austin, with no significant roadway impacts.
Febuary 27/28, 2015 — More than 200 auto accidents and 1 fatality due to icing on roads. Winter Weather Advisories in Hill Country and localized Winter Storm Warning in Austin. Freezing rain causes icing across numerous roadways in Austin and the Hill Country, leading to road closures. Temperatures east of SH 130 in East Austin remained above freezing.
Behind the scenes forecaster’s view
Stay with the First Warning Weather Team as we constantly gather new data and fine-tune the predicted impacts.