2012-09-04

Let's turn our attention away from the GOI and instead towards the CBI. The news over the weekend speaking to their "strategic project" caught my eye.
Over the weekend a seminar [called a "Symposium" by them] was held in Baghdad that was a round-table discussion of sorts. Deputy Gov CBI Saleh delivered a long talk on the project to delete the 3 zeros and answered all questions posed to him. These articles all came out of this Symposium.

note: These article were [in places] very difficult to read. I have re-ordered as needed to make it read properly and made no attempt to highlight these changes as I felt confident in their placement. As always, any [added words are in brackets] and the reader can go back to the original posting from WS if they wish to attempt reading it in it's original form!
To illustrate, here is one example lifted from the 2nd article below. Note that the underlined word was IMO misplaced. In original form it read:
...was submitted magnificent deputy central bank governor the appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh historical overview of money and commitments as a prelude to clarify participants had enriched everyone of the importance of lifting of the zeroes and convincingly...
To conclude that the word "magnificent" here is to be attributed to the deputy governor personally is not reasonable. The text clearly indicates that the word is intended as a descriptor of the compelling speech that he delivered. Thus I chose to express it in THIS post with just this one (1) word moved as follows:
...was submitted [by] deputy central bank governor the appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh [a] magnificent historical overview of money and commitments as a prelude to clarify [for the] participants had enriched everyone of the importance of lifting of the zeroes and [he did so] convincingly...

OK, now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let's dig into the news from this weekend's "Symposium" on the lifting of the 3 zeros...
by walkingstick » September 1st, 2012, 7:28 pm • [Post 13]
[the] debate Heats up on the process of deletion of zeros from the currency

02/09/2012 2:02 am
During a seminar held by ((morning))
BAGHDAD - Haider Flaih Rubaie - Hussein Tgb Tamimi
Economists discussed [the] process of deletion of zeros from the Iraqi currency, and the order of the positives that can be reflected on the overall economic activity in Iraq or cons able to affect the business process The overall financial, and as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank that the disintegration of the monetary system in the country is a clear lack of overall political process, wave specialists others participated in the seminar that the process requires timelines testify [also] during the [session of the] economic reality of more stability, which otherwise Iraq is now witnessing according to specialists.
Rather than get too specific as to this 1st paragraph, suffice it to say that the journalist covering this symposium is attempting to give the highlights of the Saturday session. It is readily apparent that the expressed purpose for the symposium was to educate on the CBI's [soon coming] strategic project. Discussion revolved around it's pros and cons and Saleh was critical of the GOI pointing to their "clear lack" and some hint is given to the nature of questions raised [waved] by the specialists and their acknowledgement that economic stability has become more of a reality in todays Iraq.

this paragraph starts out good and finishes......really good....
[The] appearance of deputy central bank governor Dr. Mohammed Saleh [who spoke] yesterday morning during the seminar [being] a debate organized [for questions] on the process of deletion of zeros from the currency and with it, [Saleh] said: [in speaking to] it's positives or negatives regarding the economic process as a whole: that Iraq suffers from the influence of the mass cash enormous estimated at 35 0.3 trillion dinars [which] caused an increase [of] inflation to dangerous levels, which called for initiating [a] change [to our] currency and deleting three zeros [from] them in order to shrink [the money supply] as it believes the use of categories of small cash. pointing out that the deletion will be produced by issuing small classes of cash up to [as small as] 25 fils order filling a future need [for] small transactions, stressing that the Iraqi dinar [is] currently covered well [by the CBI's reserves] and cash value estimated at more than $ 60 billion, a cap [that] could keep the value of the dinar [protected] from [and stable against] all economic variables that could face the country.
was Saleh, who gave Mahazerh [appearance on this] first [day of the] Symposium has answered a number of questions that [helped to] guide the participants in the same order [line of thinking], [stated that] Despite [in addition to] what was said in favor of the positives [that] can be realized after the deletion, as explained during his answers to [a question concerning] the financial value of the dinar after the change [and his answer was that the IQD] will maintain its position fully, [and further] denying that you get some imbalances in the process transactional to banks and banks with customers who deposited their money before the deletion of zeros.
Some important points on this last part:
1) much speculation has been made on the value of the IQD AFTER the deletion of the zeros. Saleh's statement is clear that value of the dinar will maintain it's position fully. i.e. one IQD = one IQD = one IQD....
expressed as a ratio would be 1 IQD:1 IQD so that POST RV a 25K note will be worth the same as 250 100IQD notes. or even further that a 25K IQD note will be equal to 25,000 of the 1 IQD notes/coins.
2) The last part was REALLY interesting to me! Let me 1st repost it:

"...denying that you get some imbalances in the process transactional to banks and banks with customers who deposited their money before the deletion of zeros."

I have had discussions on this point with others [much smarter than I] and there is a line of thinking out there that the CBI might treat "electronic" funds differently and NOT give the same exchange post RV as they would offer to those who bring in physical currency to the bank window. Saleh took time to address this question and makes it clear that it matters not. Funds on deposit will be given equal treatment.
Now, this is all well and good but I got to wondering as to WHY he felt it necessary to state this? It seems apparent that it was posed to him as a question and that some in the Iraqi banking community have wondered the same thing! This then led me [in thinking of extremes] to consider: "What if this misconception were to gain traction in Iraq and become a widespread rumor/concern?" What might then happen? IF the CBI were about to RV and the citizens had such a real concern I propose that a big run on the banks would become a near certainty. The CBI would have a big mess on their hands as people demanded physical notes in lieu of their funds on deposit!
Though not a direct clue that the RV is right upon us, this is still very noteworthy! They are speaking of the "details" and the finer points IMO of the "mechanism" for the RV. We have never had any indications of such things being discussed openly....ever! I like it.....

Next we hear from an economic expert who was in attendance. She is also quoted in the following article where we will read in great detail that she had many questions for Saleh:
[We now] turn [to] economic expert Dr Akram Abdel Aziz during Mhazertha [made comments] on the sidelines of the seminar expressed an [a personal frustration] for [the CBI's] lack [in defining] its own absolute in times [terms] of [the anticipated] time to [begin the] process [of] the deletion of zeros from the currency, wondering about the impact of the operation in enhancing the value of the currency and whether it will contribute to the positive impact on indicators [such as] cash [reserves] as well as the guarantee that [the CBI] can protect against [the] process of corruption.

to be brief, the president of private banks asks some good questions here. It is noteworthy that even tho he asks some hard hitting, relevant questions, he makes no remarks that stand in opposition to the project. He just seems to be encouraging that the big picture not be lost:
but the president of the Association of private banks Abdul Aziz Hassoun wondered about the feasibility of the change in value of financial standing after the deletion, saying at the same time: what will result from the deletion of zeros, from the comfort of the use of the currency, Will will that rest economically successful.
Abdul Aziz said [further that he] believes the adoption of a strategy for managing and structuring currency require [needs to] surround all economic indicators, particularly the effectiveness of real sectors and services in the economy and what is the percentage of its contribution to the gross domestic product.
Abdul Aziz [concluded by] drew [expressing his considered opinion] that enhance[ment] [of] the value of the currency does not [come without cause as it is not a move that] can be achieved implicitly, pointing out that the reasons for this comes because the value of the dinar and the [resultant] strength [of it is] derived from the diversification of income sources and increase built sectoral [infrastructure] and [thereby] making them able to produce goods and services, criticizing a growing reliance on the oil sector in supplying the budgets of the country of Finance, which has affected the stability of cash income from foreign currency and balances enhanced the value of the currency, as well as that this matter can keep on unilateral content export and [the nation's becoming] content [with the] increasing [of] import[s] [as it also] expands external borrowing.

this symposium was apparently a who's who of Iraq's leading minds in the field of finance. The writer/reporter even makes a point to tell the reader that tomorrows news on the symposium will contain more details on the attendees. And as we will see in the next article, he kept his word!
participated in the seminar a number of experts and specialists in economic affairs representing many government and private agencies, and will be posted [in] the morning an extensive report on the symposium in numbers next to them.
Does this past weekends meeting seem to you as just another meeting? A chance for these thinkers to simply gather and bloviate? Or, is it rather more significant than that? Let's L@@K at the news from Sunday's session to see further...

http://www.alsabaah.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=34139

from Sunday's session of the "Symposium":
by walkingstick » September 2nd, 2012, 5:10 pm • [Post 263]
Delete the zeros and the fate of the currency .. In the hands of the experts at the [round]table [discussion] (morning)

03/09/2012 12:00 am

BAGHDAD - Yasser incumbent - Haider al-Rubaie Flaih - Hussein Tgb Tamimi
opened the round table organized by the Center for Strategic Studies in the morning newspaper in collaboration with the Economic Section Multi file deletion of zeros, which is the richest insights and analyzes the value and put points on the letters in decoding choking on a lack of understanding subject .
We start this article again with an introduction. And it is again clear that the express purpose of this discussion centered on the CBI's project. The language used here speaks to the brightest minds being gathered and that they got into the finer points of the project with the common goal of walking away with clear[er] understanding.

and reach a group of experts who participated in this [round] table to the fact that [implementation of this project is] such an important decision and dangerous [carries with it much weight in that it is] at the core of the economic problem needs to law and legislation to ensure not falling [down with] mistakes incurred country moral and material losses large in Iraq indispensable.

This next sentence makes a strong statement as to the significance of this Symposium! There is now an understanding among the people who truly need to know the mechanics of this!
What has been hidden [from their understanding] has now been brought into the light and I find that very significant!
For the first time in the [history of] most if not all previous economic seminars [in their attempt to] converge [the thinking on] policies have [seen] monetary and fiscal [questions brought to the round] table (morning) this sporting spirit of understanding in order to solve the problem and thus contributing to the distance from the potential risks [dispelled the concerns] that may accompany the process of change or raise zeros.

was submitted [by] deputy central bank governor the appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh [a] magnificent historical overview of money and commitments as a prelude to clarify [for the] participants had enriched everyone of the importance of lifting of the zeroes and [he did so] convincingly and striking [a sharp] contrast [to comments from the] representative of the Ministry of Finance d.
I need to step in here and point out that Saleh hit a "home run" with the crowd with his "speech" and this was in STRONG contrast to other comments made by the rep from the Finance Ministry. Sunday a small article made it to our forum and received considerable attention. What's important here is to recognize that this small article was a reference to this above quote here and the representative of the finance committee that we read about in this separate posting! Here is that small article [brought back] for review. I assure you that if you were on the forum Sunday, you will remember this one:

by DLR » September 2nd, 2012, 12:12 pm • [Post 196]

http://aknews.com/en/aknews/2/324333/

Zeros cannot be removed from Iraqi dinars during 2013, says Iraqi Finance Ministry
02/09/2012 17:36
ERBIL, September 2 (AKnews) – Iraq's deputy minister of finance said the zeros cannot be removed from Iraqi dinars during 2013 because no preparations have been made.

The Iraqi Central Bank and people have been saying for four years that the zeros in the Iraqi currency will be erased and the money will be changed. But the money cannot be changed because prior work for the process has not been executed. He sounds like some of us here with his frustrations in the wait...

Nabi said: "Reducing the zeros is the Central Bank's authority. As the Finance Ministry we are against the change and removal of the zeros, but the bank insists on removing the zeros.

"We cannot change the Iraqi money in 2013 because the Iraqi budget was estimated with current money."
He also said: “If Central Bank has any intention to change the money then it must do the process soon before calculating 2014's budget.”
Whether we recognize it or not, the guy's actually [in a round about way] our greatest advocate! Replace "2014" with "2013" and you have what I believe to be the current state of things and the deputy finance minister [tho against it officially and obviously off his meds] is calling for it to come.....soon......
By Rebin Hassan
HH/DM/AKnews

OK, now back to the article in progress. The following speaker begins by acknowledging the unity of views in their discussion and then speaks to the problem of dollarization in Iraq and the reality that this needs to be properly accounted for and removed in order for the new IQD to become widely used and the CBI's "project" successful:
Hilal Taan vision on the action and despite the emergence of intersection in the two views in the apparent but in sub converge policies have cash financial and in one pot, but a careful to keep the national economy from additional shocks. Taan focused on the obstruction, the only way to delete the zeros is [to address] the psychological aspect of a group of Iraqi businessmen who have devoted culture of the state and rely on the dollar, while noting the experiences of other countries reservations تجارهم to rely on is their currency and a way to force their economic activity.

This analysis led to the development of ideas [that] converged [became focused] on the timing of the deletion of zeros and receded in the availability of envelopes firstly cover legislative saves currency from acting qualitative and secondly create a culture of attention in the national currency and this is governed by a matter of time blaming devices media responsibility to adopt this role.
As expected, many questions arose about the timing of the CBI's implementation! This question apparently was not answered directly but rather deflected off into the lap of the legislature. Also, as part of the deflection, Saleh mentioned the need to bring the citizens up to speed "culture of attention" and shrugged his shoulders as he stated that the media is not fully engaged and thus the timing is an unknown variable.
nicely done Saleh....

Many of the participants all agreed on the [reality that the] need to provide a suitable environment for such a move is important, acknowledging its importance due to the fact that the currency represents infrastructure sober [a thing of importance] for the country's economy, and on the grounds that the country's economic strength stems from the power of her money.

note: At this point in the article, Saleh makes a VERY long speech. It is a dissertation of sorts on the CBI's project and is offered as support for it's need. I would need many hours to get into it in detail and have chosen to take it completely out of the discussion of this post. It is however included [inserted] at the bottom of this post and titled as: "Saleh's speech"

As we continue, note that the next quote is from Ms. Aziz who was also quoted in Saturday's session. I hesitated to high-light any of her statement as it is all good and worthy of study:
an economic expert Dr Akram Abdel Aziz began her several questions came action needs to review minutes either in the forefront of any mechanisms that depend upon the implementation of this approach and implement the replacement process and ensures that there is no manipulation during the switching process in the sense of protecting this step of fraud ?
And added that the economic situation need to follow all his joints [possible variables] which are needed to promote it, as the money spent on switching process must achieve the goal.
Continued its questions you were to stop at concerns and that this process may increase smuggling money abroad, especially that the process of deletion of zeros procedural difficult and complex and require statistics and accurate figures and must stand at the effects on the stock market. They pointed out that this issue if has not been studied extensively and the quality of community, the process of subtraction will of the Iraqi market to imbalance and jerks just because the citizen can imagine that the deletion of zeros will affect the real value of the currency,
stressing that the strategy proposed must correlate between the money market and the labor market, as she wondered whether that outlook be comprehensive nature of inflation in terms of it's not the high cost of production and a series elevations price of interest joints much-needed citizen. said that direct this trend needs to be a thorough review of the reality of the Iraqi economy and its institutions of public and private and the extent and effectiveness trends credit support for the work of the private sector . It showed that the basis of the success of any reform process and administrative needs radical treatment and serious fiscal imbalances, monetary and administrative constitute an obstacle to development cash development in Iraq. [The nation's] deficit financing [borrowing externally is among the] most prominent [of] reasons for the low value of the currency and despite the fact that the process of deletion of zeros from the currency [will correct this,] traces can be negative on counterfeiting operations that will accompany it,
I could say a lot to her statement but lack the time! She hints at stock issues and asks if that has been addressed. It has...long ago. For some reason the CBI leaves gaping holes even when they appear to be explaining things in great detail to the people that seem to have a need to know!

now we conclude by going back to Mr. Taan for more comments:
but the economic expert, Dr. Hilal Taan said during his speech at the symposium opposite when he pointed to the possibility of several gains from behind changing the currency, is to provide a strong cash flow and global Iraq, which is needed to large groups of cash in value and small in size perform functions of money, as well as the deletion of zeros will play a positive role in business dealings, according to Taan who said that other positive which will be produced by changing the currency is escorted to the stage of economic growth and prosperity growing for Iraq, therefore, [to] change the currency is essential [and] This is in line with this optimism in the national economy.
[next] Taan reviewed [in] some detail the chronology of the Iraqi dinar and [it's] witnessed volatility of price, explaining that in 1980 amounted to release cash in Iraq four billion dinars, and was then the highest denomination is 25 dinars, equivalent to then $ 75, and reached the bloc in 1992 about 25 billion dinars, and increased in 2003 to reach six trillion dinars, and rose this block to reach now 35 trillion dinars. Despite increasing the money supply in this way large compared with the year 1980, which was equal to the highest category of cash which is 25 dinars about $ 75, the Taan For comparison pointed out that the highest category of cash now stands at 25 thousand dinars is it not worth only $ 22. explaining that this shows the size of the collapse happening in the Iraqi currency
The wrought by a series of factors do not stand Pferdha deficit financing process in the forefront of those factors but also contributed to other causes in a collapse of the structural changes that have occurred on the size of the budget after 2003, which led to the increase of cash, and this increase resulted in the higher costs Additional transactions, so in the case of deletion of zeros, these costs will decrease inevitably.
Taan hinted that Iraq since the eighties resorted to the use of deficit financing policy, and that policy in developed countries achieved positive effects unlike in developing countries, where the States have developed a device productive flexible able to face demand and therefore increase investment, savings and get the economy moving, either in developing countries When Released new cash gets to meet a large amount of money goods are few and services is low, and a productive is flexible and a rise in prices and the flight of capital, stressing that all these negative factors took place in Iraq, and increased rates of inflation, and these negatives according [to] Taan can not be solved without deleting three zeros from the currency. Turning Taan to the importance of the availability of a number of things he said was [indicators of it being] necessary to initiate the process of deletion of zeros, pointing out that there are factors to concrete and other significant impact material,
let me break in here.... His arguement for the implementation of the project is amazingly strong thus far. But it gets better! Below he is going to detail two indicators that MUST be present before implementation of the currency change. He then proceeds to prove that both factors have been meet!
I love it.....
and [Taan] also said: that to change the currency prerequisites should be available before this, the first of the reserve strategic direct, any balance of gold and foreign currency, and I see that the dinar Iraqi [is] covered with good foreign currency is according to the Central Bank of 67 billion dollars. believes Taan he Furthermore, the second factor that must be made ​​available to initiate the process of deletion is in the size of the reserve strategic indirect, and intended to natural resources, and this is positive now, especially since Iraq has become the second country after Saudi Arabia in the volume of production and exports of oil to OPEC members, explaining that the third thing is the factor psychological, any behaviors and activities to some wholesalers, who became not like[ly] to deal in Iraqi dinars, and preferred the dollar, despite the fact that The currency is a commodity, the greater the demand for that commodity value rises, and vice versa.
As you see, he finished with a third factor, that of the use of USD in Iraq. Trust me when I say, they got that one covered! THAT topic has been studied and spoken to as much as any out there!

To finish, here are some of the notables that were in attendance:
has provided a number of experts and researchers interventions task enriched table ideas and solutions, including the Executive Director of the Association of private banks in Iraq Abdul Aziz Hassoun, and banking expert Abdul Hussein Mundhiri, and economic researcher Thamir Alheimus and economic analyst, Dr. Hussein Allawi, and a number of other businessmen, including investor Hadi Hndas, and investor Ibrahim Jaber Hussein, and Ibrahim Mohamed Ali investor.

http://www.alsabaah.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=34237

One thought on the following...
Saleh concludes his speech by extolling the virtues of their present situation. He is thus clearly making an argument to support the re-pricing of the IQD in the near term in contrast to it being a far flung event that is presently only "ink on paper" as he stated only days ago....
Saleh's speech:
[Speaking to the] need to reform the system of payments [the "project"] deputy central bank governor the appearance of Dr. Mohammed Saleh pointed out that under the price stability and optimism in Iraq Development, it became necessary radical reform on the system management of currency as well as the re-structure commensurate with the price structure new and different, stable and levels of wages and salaries, which differed significantly from the last thirty years, as well as handle the mass of large cash weak components so that it has become the largest category [of the] currency Atsawi [the 25K IQD note worth] only $ 21 U.S. at the present time. noting that the increase in gross domestic product of Iraq from $ 140 billion at year-end 2010 to more than $ 300 billion at the end of 2015, will raise the money supply exporting of 30 trillion dinars to about 70 trillion dinars. And weak structure in the currency structure as mentioned above may take adds cost called the cost of cash transactions in terms of trading, whether between individuals themselves, individuals and banks within the banking system itself. Saleh said that in Sweden, for example, having now one of the best systems of cash payments in the world and despite that, the cost of trading cash counting, transmission and storage of the coin costing the national economy accounted for 4 percent of the gross domestic product of Sweden. Wondering how to compare that in a country like Iraq shall be managed so huge amounts of cash weak structure, adds the cost of cash transactions may reach 8 percent or more of GDP, a burden borne by the individual in his dealings which took reduces the efficiency of cash as an institution social support to institutions economy different, including the market as evidenced by the decline in cash transactions because of falling efficiency and installation of the money supply current. and pointed out that the multiplicity of zeros raises the denominations with declining purchasing power has enormous difficulties, including the difficulty of expression for the cash value as well as the same difficulties of monetary operations and technical problems in the recording of statistical data in the accounting books and changing accounting systems and settlement systems, as well as prices figures show long difficult counters or digital devices read Asfarha in gas stations or other digital devices. and continued on this basis has become a need to reform the system of cash payments through several advantages, the first on the horizontal plane and is deleting three zeros any transfer 30 trillion dinars to 30 billion Dolaran by deleting three zeros from the current currency and replace it with a new currency making it easier to handle arithmetic with numbers are less numerous in terms of accounts the federal budget, the budgets of banks and companies as well as balancing family cash (individuals) without incurring any change or switch on the wealth of cash for natural persons and moral as well as non-depressing contracts and obligations between natural persons and all concerned. , which called generating function sports political debate or political debate of the world (1752) Effect of nominal price levels with a high amount of money, such as the transition from Roman numerals to Arabic numbers (the numbers in English now), that the transition to ايغير of the basic principles of science and math. High amounts of money leads to higher prices for the same without the impact's real economy results. The level vertical any restructuring of the currency and fitted it to the category large amount of 25,000 dinars are alone (two thirds of the amount of securities traded), the issuance of larger groups mean reductase four billion banknotes in circulation now and converted to a number equal to (1.180) billion paper cash. As Stakhtzel large groups of currency nearly 80 percent -90 percent of the total new categories exported to trading (such as 50, 100, 200 new dinars). Said based on the foregoing, the cost of cash transactions between individuals and banks and between individuals themselves or natural moral fall inevitably in terms of the costs of counting and checking. If Maalmana, that banknotes traded eroded the average over a period of five years, which means replacing enormous mass weak structure and consequent costs typographical specifications high security is another burden borne by the issuing authority cash is a relic Management System cash generated economic downturn former became not fit, stability and economic progress desired. said that money is anything agreed upon the community to become a medium of exchange and a store of value and unit account, the money (legal) issued by the monetary authority under the law and with the power of discharge of accounts receivable, seen as a social institution, where increasing the efficiency of the economy and its operations in moving efficiently exchange those social institution money, and vice versa. explaining that continuous inflation led to rising currency of 23 billion dinars in 1991 to about (30) trillion dinars over time. In this drawing new inflation figures for the currency traded add three zeros which increased the nominal amount of cash operations and consequent costs of producing large amounts of Maraafqatha, storage, and distribution operations, sorting and checking accompany her and doubling levels, the growing operational risks associated. And concluded by saying that the reasons for changing the currency current reflects the fruit of economic stability and the success of policies CBI in maintaining stability and of the stability of the dinar and falling inflation to the rank of one decimal [less than 10%] and build foreign reserves [as] support of the Iraqi dinar [to] levels never achieved during the thirty years, which is the cover of the Iraqi currency. In addition to improving the system of cash payments and make it leave actual adhesion combination for the past economic اختلالاته and rebuilt on the future of economic development and real and nominal givens."

Statistics: Posted by Memphis — September 4th, 2012, 1:49 pm

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