(Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports)
Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson is probably the most polarizing fantasy football player in 2015 drafts. He’s being taken in the first round often this year in mock drafts, with a Fantasy Football Calculator Average Draft Position of 9.9 in standard 12-teamers and around 12th overall per FantasyPros.
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Does he deserve this praise?
2014 recap
His performance last year is fueling the hype.
In the Broncos’ injury-riddled backfield last year, he stepped up. In Denver’s final eight games, Anderson ran for 767 yards (4.7 per carry), caught 30 passes for 289 yards, and scored all of his 10 touchdowns (eight rushing). A pair of three-touchdown games helped pad the TD column.
What’s in store for this year?
Pros
Elusive for his size, Anderson (5-8, 224 pounds) is built to be The Man in any backfield, including a one-cut, zone-blocking scheme. Heading into his third season, Anderson has fresh legs, the momentum from his standout stint last year, and, seemingly, Peyton Manning’s trust.
Any running back (and his fantasy owners) should be excited to have Gary Kubiak running the offense. He boasts an illustrious history — much of it with this club — of enhancing whatever running game he’s directing and extracting brilliance from unlikely sources. Look at what Kubiak did for Justin Forsett in his breakthrough with the Baltimore Ravens last year. Denver ranked 17th in run percentage (42.19%) in 2014; that should move closer to a 50-50 split with Kubiak in town.
Regardless of who’s calling the plays, Anderson has earned the first shot at majority work, at minimum. Those three-TD games skewed his production, but he was consistently involved. Anderson compiled at least 90 offensive yards in all but one of those eight outings, and 20 touches in all but two.
With the departure of tight end Julius Thomas, Denver will look for new consistency in the red zone. That could come from Owen Daniels and Virgil Green, but why not elevate Anderson? In 2014, he converted 31.8% of his red zone carries into touchdowns, per FFToday.com’s Doug Orth. While that’s a wildly high percentage that’ll probably come down, the bruiser deserves similar chances, and Kubiak’s running game typically succeeds close to the goal line.
As last season wore down, Denver made sure to ease the burden on Manning, who had begun to wear down a little as he fought through a torn right quadriceps. Expect a similar effort for the 39-year-old, who’s gladly handed it off to tailbacks who excel in stretch plays. Remember Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai?
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Cons
Blindly extrapolating partial-season numbers as baseline expectations is extremely dangerous. And in this case, Denver had to lean heavily on Anderson because of its dwindled tailback crew and Manning’s poor health.
Can we say with 100% certainty that Anderson won’t surrender a decent amount of work if Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman are active? Kubiak, in fact, is known for riding the hot hand, even if it isn’t the planned starter. (And handcuffing is a waste of time.)
Ball, one of last year’s biggest fake-football busts, has ZBS experience from his college days. Hillman also has savvy in the setup and is probably the best pass-blocker in this backfield. Both options could cost Anderson more carries than many expect.
Those who think Kubiak all of a sudden is going to take the keys out of a healthy Manning’s hand need to rethink their approach. Sure, it’ll be more balanced, but he’s not going to neuter No. 18.
For all of Forsett’s brilliance, he ceded plenty of red-zone work to other backs. Anderson could leave the field sometimes in place of the 5-10, 215-pound Ball. And Hillman offers the best pass protection for the 39-year-old Manning.
Fantasy football value
Does Anderson belong in the first half of the first round?
All things equal, the upside exists for Anderson to become one of the best fantasy backs. He has a huge opportunity to gobble up touches in one of the best ground systems in the NFL.
But Kubiak’s established history of volatility with featured backs should create pause. Ball’s potential to steal TDs and Hillman’s to swipe receptions jeopardizes Anderson keeping his pace of touches from last year.
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The combination of this big opportunity and the decreased risk that occurs at the end of a first round eases the pressure on selecting him as you get closer to the first turn.
Still, blindly expecting him to make the leap and passing on running backs and (more pertinently) wide receivers with longer resumes to get him in the first half of your first round is precarious.
Do not underestimate the value gap between the top and bottom halves of Round 1. If Anderson falls to the back end of the first or anywhere in the second, he’s a fine buy.
Place among RBs
Anderson comes in ranked 10th among RBs in our early fantasy football rankings, which default to point-per-reception scoring. In non-PPR, touchdown-heavy leagues, he’s more concretely a top-10 option.
The consensus top four running backs, in some order, have widely been identified as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy (more here) and Le’Veon Bell.
For this writer, Marshawn Lynch ranks fifth, LeSean McCoy sixth … and from there, it depends on the scoring format. Anderson comes in at a respectable spot:
PPR
7. Matt Forte (with ample risk — more on this another day)
8. Lamar Miller (I believe, Cory Bonini.)
9. C.J. Anderson
10. DeMarco Murray
11. C.J. Spiller
Non-PPR
7. Jeremy Hill
8. Lamar Miller (I believe, Cory Bonini.)
9. C.J. Anderson
10. DeMarco Murray
11. Matt Forte
These 11 are the only running backs to consider taking in the first two rounds of any fantasy draft.