MARCH 2016
French officials foil a terror plot by French national Reda Kriket on the outskirts of Paris (25 March). Kriket, who has been linked to the Paris attacks on 13 November, was arrested on Thursday. Police found Kalashnivovs and TATP, the preferred explosive of the Islamic State, during a raid on his home in the Paris suburb of Argenteuil. French interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the plan had been foiled “in its advanced stage”.
31 dead and 340 wounded in various terrorist attacks in Brussels (22 March). One of the explosions has been reported at the Zaventem airport causing 13 deaths shortly after 8 am which, according to Belgian officials, was caused by a suicide bomber. At the moment, the number of victims is still rising from the explosion at Maalbeek metro station, located near the European Institutions.
Salah Abdeslam, the sole-surviving suspect in the Paris terrorist attacks, has been taken into custody in Brussels (18 March). Abdeslam, who is a French national and grew up in Brussels, has been the most wanted man in Europe after eluding authorities for months. Immediately after the attacks in November, Abdeslam had escaped across the French-Belgian border, his ID being checked by authorities, but his name had yet to be released as a wanted man. His fingerprints were discovered in the subsequent months in two apartments in Brussels and, most recently, Abdeslam appeared on security footage leaving a petrol station. He was finally apprehended in the Molenbeek neighborhood on Friday, 18 March, reportedly brandishing a handgun. Abdeslam was shot in the knee before being taken into police custody.
An attack in Ankara leaves at least 37 dead and 125 wounded (13 March). The explosive was detonated inside a car by one or two suicide bombers as it pulled next to a city bus. It is yet to be determined who exactly is responsible for the attack, though some are claiming that initial findings point to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stated that “Turkey has become the target of terrorist attacks due to regional instability.”
European Council president Donald Tusk tells migrants to stay away from Europe’s borders (3 March). “I want to appeal to all illegal economic migrants wherever you are from: Do not come to Europe. Do not believe the smugglers. Do not risk your lives and your money. It is all for nothing,” said Tusk speaking in Greece alongside Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Nearly 30,000 refugees remain stranded in Greece after a string of border closings throughout the “Balkan corridor” have created a human traffic jam of migrants trying to reach wealthier central and northern European countries. This comes after Macedonian police unleashed tear gas on a group of migrants who attempted to cross its border with Greece. On Monday, EU leaders will meet in Brussels and Tsipras hopes that the “burden-sharing will be equitable among all countries in the bloc” and include sanctions for those countries who choose not to cooperate.
Fayçal Cheffou, thought to be the third bomber in the airport security footage from Brussels, has been taken into custody, Belgian authorities report (26 March). Cheffou, who describes himself as a freelance journalist, faces criminal charges including participating in a terrorist group, terrorist killings and attempted terrorist killings. He was followed in a car on Thursday night and arrested outside the federal prosecutor’s office. A subsequent police search of his apartment turned up no weapons or explosives, authorities said. Three other men were detained on Thursday, according to the prosecutor’s office.
The EU and Turkey have reached a deal to stem the flow of refugees coming to Europe (18 March). According to the agreement, Turkey will begin taking back refugees who cross illegally into Greece from 20 March onwards, with the return of many migrants to their place of origin commencing 4 April. In return, the EU will open chapter 33 on budget policy and accelerate negotiations in terms of Turkey’s long-stalled bid to gain EU membership. Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoğlu described the agreement as “balanced” and served as evidence that the EU and Turkey shared a common objective. The EU has pledged €3 billion to the effort and, according to Davutoğlu, would be spent on Syrian refugees living in Turkey with an additional €3 billion to be allocated to Turkey by the end of 2018 to improve Syrian refugees’ living conditions.
Anti-refugee party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) makes significant gains in Germany’s state elections, dealing serious setbacks to Chancellor Angela Merkel (13 March). Three states went to the polls on Sunday including Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt. The two former states, ruled by center-left coalitions, handed down victories to the Greens and the Social Democrats, respectively, who strongly supported Merkel’s refugee policy. However, in Saxony-Anhalt, AfD captured 24% of the vote after campaigning with slogans like “Stop the asylum chaos”, securing their presence in the regional parliament as the second-largest party behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats. The AfD also made substantial gains in the other two states as well winning 15% in Baden-Württemberg and 12.5% in Rhineland-Palatinate. This has been the strongest showing of a right-wing party in either of these states since the end of World War II.
The EU will deport to Turkey all refugees and economic immigrants who arrive at the Greek coasts (8 March). The heads of state and government of the EU and the Turkish prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, met yesterday, 7 March, and arrived to an agreement which will return all those migrants to Turkey who disembark in Greece. The measure has not taken long to stir up criticism and organizations like UNHCR have already questioned its legality. Amnesty International called it “inhumane”. The Geneva Conventions and international law establishesd that when someone arrives to a territory, they have the right to request asylum without being expelled or deported, until said country studies and decides each case. In fact, during the last months, even Juncker, who has now defended the measure, earlier announced that he was against this very option.
FEBRUARY 2016
Irish prime minister, Enda Kenny, admitted defeat in Saturday’s general election, acknowledging that the ruling coalition with Labour will not return (28 Feb). Although Kenny’s center-right party, Fine Gael, remains the largest in parliament, they were dealt a swift blow by voters weary of austerity measures. Fine Gael and Labour form the current ruling coalition government, but Labour failed miserably at the polls, securing only 6 seats. Fine Gael received 47 with the real success of the evening, center-right Fianna Fáil, regaining ground lost 5 years ago with 43 seats. Smaller parties, anti-austerity groups, independent politicians and left-wing Sinn Fein are all positioned to increase their representation in parliament as news commentators noted the “seismic change” happening in Irish politics.
The High Commissioner for UNHCR, Filippo Grandi, urges countries to not close their borders (26 Feb). In his meeting with the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, in Athens on 25 February, Grandi alerted that the recent closing of borders in the Balkans could create an “enormous and potentially critical human traffic jam in Greece.” Additionally, Grandi criticized the inability of European countries to confront the refugee crisis with generosity and unity.
UK in/out of EU referendum set for 23 June 2016; British cabinet split between those for and against, with Prime Minister Cameron vowing to campaign with heart and soul to keep Britain in a reformed EU (20 Feb).
The Berlinale’s main award ceremony took place on Saturday, 20 February, in Berlin. The festival‘s Golden Bear went to Fuocoammare (Fire at Sea), a documentary by Gianfranco Rosi about the Italian island of Lampedusa, which has become synonymous with the hardships and the hopes of refugees. The decision of the International Jury was a foreseeable response both to the circumstances and to the politically singular curatorial decision to include this film into the Berlinale’s competition section usually kept for feature films. The Silver Bears also found their way to well-deserved owners: Death in Sarajevo by Danis Tanović received the Grand Jury Prize; the eight-hours-long Philippines and Singapore coproduction A Lullaby to the Sorrowful Mystery directed by Lav Diaz received the Alfred Bauer Prize for a Feature Film That Opens New Perspectives; Mia Hansen-Løve received the Silver Bear for Best Director for her film L’ avenir (Things to Come); Trine Dyrholm received the Silver Bear for Best Actress for her role in Kollektivet (The Commune) directed by Thomas Vinterberg; the Silver Bear for Best Actor went to the Tunisian actor Majd Mastoura for his role in Inhebbek Hedi by Mohamed Ben Attia; the Pole Tomasz Wasilewski received the Silver Bear for Best Script for United States of Love, which he also directed; and finally the Silver Bear for Outstanding Artistic Contribution went to Mark Lee Ping-Bing for his camerawork in the Chinese production Crosscurrent directed by Yang Chao.
Russian prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, warns that the world is slipping into a “new cold war” during a security conference in Munich (14 Feb). His words reflect the lack of cooperation taking place between Russia and the rest of Europe at a time when many claim that Russian airstrikes in Syria are targeting civilians. “There is no evidence of us bombing civilians, even though everyone is accusing us of this,” said Medvedev, “Russia is not trying to achieve some secret goals in Syria. We are simply trying to protect our national interests.” Many are claiming Russia’s rhetoric and actions to be undermining the path to peace that many are seeking for the region as well as posing a threat to Europe, America and the rest of the world. Medvedev asked, “I sometimes wonder: are we in 2016 or 1962?”
Germany and Turkey reinforce their agreement to confront the refugee crisis (8 Feb). German chancellor Angela Merkel met with Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu to consolidate joint forces in order to reduce the influx of immigrants to Europe. The pact focuses on requesting help from NATO in order to patrol the Turkish coasts and the Aegean Sea as well as taking measures against human traffickers. There is no end in sight for the Syrian conflict and each day it is causing more and more immigrants to flee to European territory. The aerial attacks carried out by the Russian army in the city of Aleppo to help those troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad gain territory has done little more than augment the flee of refugees. “Aleppo finds itself in a state of siege. We are at the threshold of a new human tragedy,” alerted Davutoglu.
Belgium introduces controls at its border with France in order to confront the influx of immigrants and asylum seekers (26 Feb). After France announced its partial eviction of migrants in Calais, Belgian authorities fear an imminent and massive entry of immigrants and asylum seekers into the country. The measure announced by the Minister of Justice, Jean Jambon, reinforces strategic points for the deployment of police. Until now, more than 700 people have been detained trying to cross over into the United Kingdom. Jambon informed the European Commission that “we are going to temporarily revoke Schengen”.
Hungary will hold a referendum concerning the plan to relocate refugees proposed by the EU (25 Feb). The date has not been determined but the question has been. The Hungarian citizen will have to respond to the following: Do you agree that the EU should have the power to impose the obligatory relocation of non-Hungarian citizens without the consent of the Hungarian National Parliament? The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, made it clear that the Executive hopes the answer to this question will be ‘no’: “He or she who votes no will be voting for Hungarian independence.”
Macedonia closes its doors to Afghan refugees (22 Feb). The Macedonian government confirms having made the decision after Serbia announced that it would do the same and block Afghans from entering Serbian territory. Many fear that Afghans would be “stuck” in Macedonia en route to northern Europe. Serbia justified the decision blaming Austria and Slovenia for having taken similar actions. A domino effect combining with the incessant influx of refugees could provoke a human traffic jam which would only grow bigger. According to police sources, some 1,000 people have been stalled at the border and another 4,000 are waiting on buses nearby.
EU leaders, meeting within the European Council on 18-19 February in Brussels, reached a decision on a new settlement for the UK within the EU, with specific concessions in the areas of economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, social benefits and free movement. This decision shall take effect after the expected referendum in the UK, provided that the citizens vote for the UK remaining a member of the European Union.
A head-on deadly collision of two passenger trains in souther Germany kills 10 and injures dozens more (9 Feb). The crash is said to have been caused by human error when someone apparently turned off the anti-collision system. There was no apparent braking before the trains crashed with experts saying that the drivers “probably didn’t see the train ahead until collision”. Around 100 people were reportedly on board with 81 have reporting injuries and 18 still in serious condition. The scene of the accident, as the German transport minister said, was “horrifying”.
European Council President Donald Tusk issued a “proposal for a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union” (2 Feb), following negotiations with UK Prime Minister David Cameron. The proposal covers four “baskets” of issues, on EU economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, and social benefits and free movement respectively. It is responding to demands placed by the UK Prime Minister in order to support a yes vote in the UK referendum on remaining in or leaving the EU due to take place by 2017. The proposal will be discussed by the EU leaders, meeting as the European Council, on 18-19 February 2016 in Brussels.
JANUARY 2016
At its first formal meeting of 2016 (13 Jan), the College of Commissioners of the European Commission decided to initiate a structured dialogue with Poland under the Rule of Law Framework. This was triggered by concerns over recent Polish government decisions restricting the independence of the Constitutional Court and public service broadcasters.
In Cologne on New Year’s Eve, nearly 170 complaints were filed for robbery, sexual assault and rape after 31 male suspects, 18 of which are alleged to be North-African and Arab-looking, attacked women at the city’s main train station (7 Jan). Sources claim internal police reports show that some of the identified suspects came with the recent flow of refugees. However, high-ranking German officials warn about the danger of an outpour of hatred directed at newcomers, with Chancellor Merkel saying that the arrival of migrants should be seen as “an opportunity for tomorrow” and not a cause for division and dispute. Reports of similar events are coming from other European cities, with Helsinki police taking several asylum seekers into custody for allegedly sexually harassing well-wishers on New Year’s Eve. On the last day of the year, Zurich, Hamburg and Dusseldorf saw a similar rise in violence against women. New Year’s Eve harassment cases have cast a shadow over Ms. Merkle’s open-door approach to migration, with an ever increasing number of people questioning it.
David Cameron met German chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday, 6 January, during a visit aimed at garnering support for his proposed changes to the European Union. Soon after winning the 2015 general elections, the British prime minister introduced a bill into parliament that would permit the in-out referendum to be held in regrad to the UK’s EU membership. The move was followed by a whirlwind tour of Europe to summon support for his bid to reform Britain’s partnership with the European Union. Mr. Cameron hopes to enlist Germany’s support for his reform proposal ahead of EU leaders’ meeting next month in Brussels. In an article published in the German newspaper “Bild”, the UK Prime Minister argues that the changes proposed will benefit the EU at large and “Germany can help deliver them”. The UK government would like to see a shift of powers from Brussels to national capitals and less EU bureaucracy, but amongst its most controversial points is the proposal to rein in benefits for EU migrants during their first four years in the United Kingdom.
A video released by the Islamic State shows the killing of five men alleged to be spies for the UK (3 Jan). The “Jihadi John” style video features a man and a young boy, believed to be around 6 or 7, threatening the UK directly and claiming to be sending a direct message to Prime Minister David Cameron for “challenging the might” of IS. The five men who were executed were wearing jumpsuits and were taken to a desert location and shot in the back of the head after “confessing” to carrying out reconnaissance missions on behalf of British authorities. The man, speaking with a British accent, repeatedly points a gun at the camera as he makes claims to be preparing an invasion of ISIS fighters in Europe. The young boy concludes the video by saying, “We are going to go kill the kafir (non-believers) over there.”
The center-right leader, Rebelo de Sousa, claims victory in the Portuguese presidential elections (25 Jan.) Two months after a leftist coalition government was formed, the conservative de Sousa clinched the presidency with 52% of the vote and with the objective to “build bridges and heal wounds” after the severe economic and social crisis that the country has suffered throughout the past few years. De Sousa, the leader of the Social Democratic party (PSD), became the favorite and beat the independent candidate Sampaio da Nóvoa, who captured 22% of the vote. In third place was Marisa Matias, from the Bloco de Esperda, with 10% of the votes, an historic achievement for the party. The election results form a political puzzle of different colors but of equal importance—an executive branch lead by a leftist coalition and a center-right presidency. A panorama in which de Sousa, as the newly-elected president, has the capacity to dissolve Parliament, call general elections and name the prime minister as well as send legislation to the Constitutional Tribunal to be vetoed.
Ten dead and fifteen wounded in Istanbul suicide bombing (12 Jan). The perpetrator, identified as a Saudi-born, Syria-raised man, who had registered as refugee from Syria, detonated his explosives at the heart of the tourist district of Istanbul. The majority of the victims were German tourists. The Turkish and German governments stressed their determination to fight terrorism together, and Turkey proceeded to arrest several suspects. ISIS was suspected of masterminding the attack, although it had not claimed responsibility.
Amid growing concerns over reinstated border checks, the European Commission called on ministers from Denmark, Sweden and Germany to attend a round of talks in Brussels on Wednesday (6 Jan). The meeting comes after Sweden introduced ID checks on its border with Denmark, following a similar move by the Danish government which reinstated border controls with Germany to help curb the influx of migrants. Sweden has taken in more asylum seekers per capita than any other EU state and is looking at ways to curb the influx, as other member states are quarreling over refugee transfers and redistribution schemes. Earlier on Tuesday, 5 January, The European Commission announced that only 272 Syrians and Eritreans, just 0.17% of asylum seekers, have been transferred from Greece and Italy to other European countries.
The Polish government, led by the ulta-conservative PiS, passed a controversial law involving the reform of state media (4 Jan). An amendment to the law which pertains to Polish state media, which was approved the night of December 31st, hands over the power to directly appoint the heads of public broadcasters to the state. The reform puts an end to an independent tribunal which has traditionally been in charge of television and public radio and has decided who is vested with the responsibility of choosing employees. The reaction was immediate, with various resignations by state media executives and a wave of criticism from both the national and EU levels that has called into question the democratic standards of such a reform. The criticism has fallen on deaf ears within the PiS and the party has even ignored a letter sent by the vice president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, to the ministers of justice and foreign affairs. The OSCE, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which works on behalf of human rights and is involved in protecting associations of European journalists, has also voiced its concern.
DECEMBER 2015
The People’s Party (PP), which is currently the ruling party in Spain, has won the elections but faces a significant challenge in forming a new government (20 Dec). The general elections marked a historic milestone for PP and the Spain’s socialist party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español—PSOE), and opens up the new possible multiparty political scenario with four predominant formations. Podemos, a leftist party, burst onto scene capturing 69 seats while Ciudadanos, a center-right party, secured 40. Without an absolute majority, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy now faces an uphill struggle. Having secured 123 seats and PSOE winning 90, the possibility opens of forming governmental pacts that could even bring the left into power, or lead to new elections. A severely fragmented parliament reflects the uncertainty among the Spanish citizens in the weeks leading up to the elections.
World leaders in Paris call monumental climate deal a “major leap for mankind” (13 Dec). 195 countries have signed the pledge to hold global temperatures to a 1.5C rise above pre-industrial levels, in an effort to avoid the catastrophic effects of global warming. The formally-adopted deal sees all countries pledge to reduce emissions, help raise $100 billion per year by 2020 to help poor countries adapt their economies accordingly and accept a new goal of zero net emissions by the end of the 21st century. It also includes a phase-out of fossil fuels, increased use of renewable energies and new robust carbon markets facilitating the trading of emissions and the protection of the world’s forests. The deal is the result of more than 20 years of tumultuous climate talks conducted by the UN. British economist and academic Nicholas Stern said: “This is a historic moment, not just for us but for our children, our grandchildren and future generations. The Paris agreement is a turning point in the world’s fight against unmanaged climate change which threatens prosperity. It creates enormous opportunities as countries begin to accelerate along the path towards low-carbon economic growth.”
The EU has proposed reinforcing Frontex, the European border agency, and deploying 2,000 EU police to be sent to European borders in order to face the immigration crisis (11 Dec). In addition to doubling Frontex personnel, the project proposes the creation of an EU corps composed of 2,000 border guards who can act without prior consent from member states. These guards would be national police that must be prepared to mobilise in little time when tension arises at the EU border. It would bring into question whether national governments are willing to relinquish sovereignty to Brussels. If the various EU member states broadly support reinforcing Frontex, they could be reluctant to support a policy that implies the transfer of competencies to Brussels. The proposal is the result of pressure from Germany and France after the Paris attacks to slow down the entry of immigrants and refugees, among whom two terrorists responsible for said attacks filtered through European borders.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National (FN) garnered nearly one-third of the vote in France’s first round of regional elections (7 Dec). The anti-immigration party received 28% of the vote, winning six out of the country’s thirteen regions and beating out former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s centre-right Republicans, who secured just under 27%, and President François Hollande’s Socialist Party, who came in third with 23.5%. This was the first election after last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris where 130 people were killed, with a second round of voting to be held on December 13. Marine Le Pen said that French voters had rejected the “old political class” and catapulted her party to the top.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National is set to make large electoral gains after the November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris (2 Dec). With the first round of pivotal regional elections set to take place on Sunday, Le Pen’s party is poised to win two of France’s mainland regions for the first time ever—Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie in the north, the poorest region in mainland France, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur in the south, by contrast one of the country’s richest regions. Although Socialist president François Hollande has seen his popularity grow in the wake of 13 Nov, his hardline measures in reaction to the attacks—including border controls, more armed police and revoking the citizenship of convicted terrorists with dual nationality—are all echoes of what Le Pen has been championing for quite some time. Le Pen’s commentary and warnings, often called “racist” and “antisemitic”, now have many French citizens claiming that she is the only one who had predicted such attacks. “Marine Le Pen predicted this and it’s only her who can save us,” said a concerned mother of six, with others claiming that “the FN is our only alternative” after both the left and the right have “failed” the country.
Spain finds itself unable to form an executive government after its general elections last 20 December (31 Dec). Election results reflect a divided Spain in that no single party received a sufficient majority to govern the country. Eleven days later, no agreement has been achieved nor has a leftist coalition been formed between the Socialist Party (PSOE), who came in second, and Podemos. The conservative Popular Party (PP), which received the majority of parliamentary seats but not enough to govern single-handedly, has received the support of Ciudadanos. At this moment, the country appears unable to reach a consensus with the possibility of holding elections yet again very likely.
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde to face trial over allegations of wrongdoing in the payment of €400 million to French tycoon Bernie Tapie (17 Dec). An arbitration panel ordered the hefty payment after Tapie, former politician and businessman, claimed to have been defrauded by the bank Crédit Lyonnais when selling the popular sportswear company Adidas. Lagarde, who was serving as finance minister at the time, ordered the case to be heard by an arbitration panel instead of a regular court. Critics claim that this “preferential treatment” received by Tapie is rooted in his financial support for former president Nicolas Sarkozy, Lagarde’s former boss. Lagarde remains steadfast in declaring her innocence, saying she had the taxpayers’ interests in mind and that the arbitration panel was completely unbiased, and promised to appeal the decision.
Two Spanish police died in an attack perpetrated by Taliban fighters at the Spanish embassy in Kabul (12 Dec). According to various accounts by individuals who witnessed the siege, which took place Friday afternoon, 11 December, the terrorists attacked the Spanish diplomatic headquarters. First, they detonated a car bomb at the entrance and afterwards positioned themselves in strategic groups in order to engage in gunfire and gain access to the building. Survivors inside were trapped for 12 hours under enemy fire. According to local police sources, four Afghans also died with 9 more wounded. Four terrorists were killed. This version contradicts the official one, offered by President Mariano Rajoy, who claimed that the attack was directed towards a guesthouse located next to the embassy.
Cameron asks Poland and Romania for help in the realm of immigration reform (10 Dec). The British prime minister’s proposal includes restricting benefits for foreign workers during the first four years and would attempt to dissuade those immigrants from moving to Great Britain for work. The Polish prime minister, Beata Szydlo, declared that her government would not support any means to discriminate Poles in Great Britain, but said that Poland would be willing to “work together” in order to find a solution to put a stop to the immigration crisis and stressed that the country wants Great Britain to stay in the EU. Cameron, on his behalf, affirmed that “if we achieve reforms, we will remain within the EU. I want to Great Britain to be a part of a reformed EU”. Cameron also visited Romania.
Denmark rejects further integration into the EU (4 Dec). The tension generated by the refugee crisis, security fears and popular disappointment after years of economic standstill have provoked more than 53% of Danes to say ‘no’ to taking a further step towards integration into the bloc. This ‘no’ means that Denmark will remain exempt from taking part in the European penal justice system and domestic issues. It also risks being denied access to Europol, the agency whose services are frequently utilized by Denmark. In spite of not having defended the campaign to vote ‘yes’, Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said that he did not consider the result as a step backwards, “Danes have rejected taking a step forward, and the reason is probably because there is a sense of uncertainty rooted in all the problems that Europe is facing at the moment that have yet to be solved.”
The UK launched its first airstrikes in Syria, targeting the IS-controlled Omar oil fields in eastern Syrian (3 Dec). After 10 hours of debate, British MPs on Wednesday voted 397 votes in favour of military action against the terrorist group with 223 voting against such measures. British Defence Secretary Michael Fallon confirmed the airstrikes were successful against IS, or Daesh as they are also known, but have caused a wave of criticism in Damascus after this morning’s newspapers recapitulated the same disapproval of the West’s intervention. “Britain didn’t ask permission from Syria’s government,” said the state news agency. They insisted that if Britain and its allies do not follow Russia’s lead in coordinating with the Syrian government, no military campaign to defeat IS will succeed.
NOVEMBER 2015
The 21st International Climate Change Conference kicked off today in Paris (30 Nov). Representatives from all over the world have come together to draft a more efficient model to slow global warming and minimize greenhouse gas emissions in a show of solidarity among all countries rich and poor. The summit will bring together more than 150 world leaders over the next two weeks who will debate the best ways in which to implement dozens of environmental commitments made by countries all over the world. Evaluations of over 180 national plans presented by various countries suggest that, if these promises are not kept, there is a 66% possibility that emissions levels will provoke an increase in temperature of up to 3.5 degree centigrade by the year 2030.
Brussels continues to be on highest level of terror alert in the wake of Paris attacks (22 Nov). Belgium’s prime minister, Charles Michel, has extended the citywide shutdown due to a “serious and imminent” Paris-style terrorist threat. Security officials met today in order to discuss whether or not the state of emergency should be extended amid the worldwide manhunt for the Belgian national Salah Abdeslam, who is suspected among those who carried out the terrorist attack in Paris which killed 130 and seriously wounded hundreds more. He is expected to be hiding in the Brussels area equipped with an explosive device.
The Kremlin has confirmed that the Russian plane that crashed in Egypt more than two weeks ago was caused by the detonation of a bomb on board (18 Nov). Putin attributed the tragedy to the Islamic State and promised to seek revenge for the terrorist attack that claimed the lives of all 224 people aboard. As a response, Russia has begun coordination with the French army to increase attacks on Syrian territory, especially in areas controlled by the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Additionally, the Islamic State has forced the United States and Russia to strengthen their bond, showing an Obama open to cooperation with Russia in the campaign against IS, only if Russia is involved in the fight against the terrorist group.
The EU decided to offer economic support to Africa in exchange for help to control migratory flows from their countries of origin (11 Nov). The proposal, pushed forward by the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, involves grants of €3.6 bn. €1.8 bn will come from EC funds, while the other half will come from member states contributions. Juncker urged members to be generous, although he is not sure that they will be able to reach the proposed figure. The objective of this incentive is to encourage African countries to take migrants back, although the majority are opposed to losing billions of dollars in remittances those working abroad send back to family members. The funds will be directed towards alleviating the principal causes of migration, such as poverty and armed conflict.
British prime minister David Cameron has outlined his demands for reform in order for Britain to stay in the EU (10 Nov). The official outline of his approach to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the 28-member bloc comes before the UK votes on an historic referendum deciding Britain’s fate within the EU. Cameron’s demands include protections for non-euro members against economic discrimination from Eurozone members, a stronger role for national parliaments in EU decision-making, the abandonment of the pursuit of an “ever closer union” to which Britain is legally bound as a signatory state of the European Union treaties, and the right to restrict welfare entitlements for four years to those migrants arriving from other European countries. This last point flies wildly in the face of current EU law which declares equal treatment to all citizens of the EU in any and all member states. Britons will go to the polls by the end of 2017 in order to vote on Britain’s EU membership and Cameron made it clear that he does not take such a decision lightly. “You will hold this country’s destiny in your hands, this is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes,” said the prime minister, but commenting that Britons should “think again” if membership is the right thing for the UK if these demands fall upon “deaf ears.”
Conservatives claim victory in the Croatian parliamentary elections (9 Nov). After polls suggested that the two main coalitions, “Patriotic Coalition” and “Croatia grows”, were neck and neck, the conservative opposition inched ahead of the Social Democrats who were trying to revalidate their mandate. The result is now a parliament which boasts 151 seats, 59 of which belong to the HDZ and 56 to the SDP together with the new party Most (Bridge), the big success that has taken the political scene by storm with a more centrist identity and whose platform is more balanced. The elections, which are the first to take place since Croatia joined the European Union, have been characterised by a discussion of the refugee and immigration crisis and a more nationalist rhetoric being pushed by the HDZ. The conservative coalition has spread a message which claims the solution lies in the implementation of stricter controls. Nevertheless, political analysts confirm that the HDZ may run into difficulties when the time comes to forge political alliances because of its strong national identity and family values that it defends.
Turkey hands President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) an overwhelming win in Sunday’s parliamentary elections (1 Nov). With 97.4% of the vote counted, 49.4% has gone to the AKP, translating into at least 351 seats in the 550-seat parliament, undoubtedly enough to form a government on its own. In order to make constitutional changes in favour of the presidential system Erdogan has been pushing for, the AKP had to win 367 seats, although 330 is sufficient to bring the issue to a referendum. The AKP, which failed to hold on to a single majority in last June’s elections, was forced into negotiations to form a coalition government, ultimately proving unsuccessful. Security had quickly become the dominant issue in these elections after weeks of violence stemming from Kurdish militants and the Islamic State have wreaked havoc in Turkey. Opposition parties were dealt a swift blow in Sunday’s elections with the country’s main secularist party, CHP, seeing its share of the vote fall to 25.4% (about 134 seats). The nationalist party, MHP, saw its representation cut in half, receiving 12% of the vote, or about 40 seats compared to the 80 seats it won in June’s elections. President Erdogan promises a return to stability with an AKP majority, whereas opposition leaders warn of increasing authoritarianism threatening Turkish democracy with Erdogan’s outright win.
The EU and Turkey reached an agreement concerning migration in which the European Union will provide €3 billion and closer links to Ankara in exchange for help limit the flow of immigrants and refugees to Europe (29 Nov). For the bloc’s leaders, the agreement is a key step in substantially reducing the number of asylum seekers. The Turkish prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, assured that the pact marked a “new beginning” for the historically strained relations between Brussels and Ankara. In addition to the €3 billion that the EU will “initially” offer, Turkish citizens will be able to travel without a visa to the Schengen Area starting October 2016. “This is not money in exchange for refugees, that would be immoral; it is an attempt to improve the conditions for Syrian refugees,” said European Council president Donald Tusk. Additionally, the EU will carry out monthly checks to ensure that Turkey is upholding its part of the deal.
Turkey shot down a Russian plane on its border with Syria for violating Turkish airspace (24 Nov). The Russian foreign minister has confirmed that the downed plane was a combat Su-24 and rejects Turkish accusations. According to presidential sources, the pilots had been warned as many as 10 times in a 5-minute period before it was ultimately brought down.
A raid of a terrorist cell to the north of Paris ended with eight detained and two dead (18 Nov). The group of presumed terrorists had been barricaded in an apartment in Saint-Denis. Among the two dead is Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the mastermind behind the attacks this past Friday in Paris, who had escaped and fled to an unknown location. The police investigations showed that the dismantled terrorist cell planned to attack in La Défense and Charles de Gaulle Airport. The prosecutor’s office confirmed the death of a woman who blew herself up with a suicide vest upon the arrival of the police at the apartment.
Islamic State claims responsibility for 128 killed, 180 injured and 90 in critical condition after coordinated attacks hit Paris (13 Nov). French president François Hollande has declared attacks in Paris an “act of war” and vowed to respond “mercilessly”. The attacks were orchestrated by 8 different assailants, 7 of whom killed themselves with suicide belts, attacking 6 different venues: bars and restaurants, a football stadium, and the Bataclan concert hall where the most deaths were inflicted. President Hollande has closed France’s borders and declared a state of emergency. This is the worst terrorist attack on European soil since the Madrid train bombings in 2004 in which 191 people lost their lives.
Portugal’s left-wing parties join political forces to oust centre-right coalition only weeks after the general election (10 Nov). Prime minister Pedro Passos Coehlo has been forced out of office after the unprecedented alliance of the moderate centre-left Socialist party with the smaller Communist party and the radical Left Bloc, which is tied to Greece’s anti-austerity SYRIZA party. MPs from the left-wing alliance forced Passos Coehlo’s government to resign after a parliamentary vote was called on Tuesday. The Socialist leader, António Costa, is expected to become prime minister in the coming weeks with a plan to ease austerity while still adhering to EU rules. Passos Coehlo, who implemented harsh austerity measures like salary and pension cuts, public services cutbacks and the biggest tax hikes in recent memory, came in first in the country’s elections last month and planned to lead Portugal with a minority government. However, the unlikely alliance of the left put an end to his mandate, making Passos Coehlo’s administration the shortest ever since the country’s democratic transition in 1974.
Helmut Schmidt, who served as West German Chancellor from 1974 to 1982, died at age 96 (10 Nov). He is regarded as one of the most popular leaders in Germany since WWII. Chancellor Angela Merkel called the Social Democrat a “political institution” whose accomplishments, among them architecting the European Monetary System and paving the way for the single currency, will forever be remembered.
The Catalonian parliament has voted to formally begin the secession process from Spain (9 Nov). The vote, which split the parliament 72 to 63, went in favour of the separatist coalition formed by parties Junts pel Si (Together for Yes) and the smaller, far-left party CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy) and plans to formally declare independence as early as 2017. Separatist MPs vowed to use their majority to begin “the process toward an independent Catalan state in the form of a republic” with the resolution declaring that Catalonia is no longer bound by institutional decisions made by the Spanish state and calling for further laws to facilitate the creation of an independent social security system and tax authority within 30 days. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stated that his government is already set to appeal the legislation in court and block the secession process. Other opponents to Catalonian independence include Cuidadanos leader Inés Arrimadas, who claimed the resolution is “madness” and accused separatist MPs of choosing to ignore federal laws “at their will”.
The Romanian prime minister resigned after protests erupted stemming from the fire that claimed the lives of 41 people in a Bucharest nightclub (4 Nov). The massive protests demanded the resignation of the Social Democratic government after the tragic fire unveiled an epidemic of corruption in the country. The prime minister, Victor Ponta, is being accused of corruption, but the Romanian parliament has refused to strip him of his political immunity, thus impeding his possible detention. The protests resulted from inaction in the fight against government corruption in regards to this weekend’s tragedy and the lack of security on the part of authorities. As a consequence, the prime minister’s resignation translates to the resignation of the entire executive branch.
A jihadist terrorist cell has been dismantled in Madrid (3 Nov). The three detainees, of Moroccan origin and with legal residence in Spain, belong to a terrorist group with ties to the Islamic State (ISIS). According to sources from the investigation, the terrorists were ordered to “act now in Spain”. The leader was in charge of recruitment and indoctrination of those newly integrated members, who were ordered to carry out terrorist acts. Until now, Spain has detained 60 individuals related to Islamic terrorism and calculates that some 100 have traveled from Iraq and Syria to fight with Islamic State militants.
OCTOBER 2015
For the first time since the onset of the war in Syria, rival foreign powers are meeting in Vienna (30 Oct). The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has urged participants to show flexibility “and global leadership.” Yesterday, foreign ministers from the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Russia met in an effort to overcome their differences on the eve of the talks focusing on the war in Syria. Today they will be joined by representatives from countries such as Iran, Egypt, Qatar, Lebanon, France, Great Britain, and Germany as well as representatives from the United Nations. The noticeable absence of the Syrian government and the opposition forces remains stark. The war in Syria, which has raged on for four years after an uprising against Assad, has killed more than 250,000 people and has forced half of the country’s population to flee their homes.
Positive conclusions are reached in the EU over how to best stem the migration crisis (25 Oct). A mini-summit took place on Sunday characterized by an urgent undercurrent in Brussels to confront the sudden influx of thousands of refugees crossing into the EU through the Balkans, appearing to have produced some positive results. As the divisions and threats among the distinct countries affected by the massive inflow of migrants grow, European leaders from Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia met in the European capital and agreed to such measures as nominating contact points to allow daily exchanges and coordination, increasing the capacity to provide temporary shelter, food, health, water and sanitation, collaborating with UNHCR, among others. Since 17 October, more than 62,000 immigrants have arrived to Slovenia.
The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called an EU mini-summit on the refugee crisis (22 Oct). The leaders of Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia, along with their counterparts from the non-EU countries FYROM and Serbia, will meet in Brussels on Sunday, 25 October. Tensions have risen since Hungary closed its border diverting asylum seekers to Slovenia which, along with Croatia and Serbia, have become the most frequently-crossed countries by immigrants and refugees trying to reach Northern Europe. In an effort to control the situation, the Slovenian Parliament authorized the military to control the border. It has been estimated that, in the last five days, more than 20,000 refugees and immigrants have crossed the Slovenian border.
Slovenia is expecting thousands of migrants in the coming days after Hungary closes its border with Croatia (18 Oct), blaming the failure of European leaders to agree on a plan to stem the flow of asylum seekers. The refusal to let migrants enter Hungary from Croatia has resulted in a “domino effect”, with Croatia now diverting thousands of migrants to Slovenia instead. UNHCR has reported around 4,000 migrants have arrived in Slovenia so far as most make their way to Austria and Germany. Slovenia’s army has been placed on standby to aid police forces in controlling the influx. As long as Austria and Germany keep their borders open, claimed Slovenian prime minister Miro Cerar, Slovenia would continue to grant them entry. Prime Minister Cerar also commented that Slovenia is “not in a state of emergency” but expressed concern that the situation “will cause a lot of trouble for all countries.”
Flight MH17, which crashed while traveling to Kuala Lumpur, was brought down by a Russian missile, according to a Dutch report (14 Oct). The investigation, led by the Dutch Security Office, found that a Russian BUK missile caused the crash and was fired from an area controlled by pro-Russian separtists in eastern Ukraine. The rebel leader, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, emphatically denied that they were to blame for the catastrophe, pointing the finger at the Ukrainian army.
The Social Democrats in Austria have won the municipal elections en Vienna with 39.5% of the vote (12 Oct), resulting in a 5% decrease from the 2010 elections, while the far-right Freedom party finished with 30.9%, 5% more than in 2010. The results will permit the Social Democrats to continue ruling in a joint coalition with the Greens, who captured 12% of the vote. The electoral campaign was dominated by the Europe’s biggest refugee crisis in decades. The Freedom party called for a border fence and sent a clear message against migration which paved the way for record results in a city that has been governed by Social Democrats since the end of the Second World War.
Turkey and the European Commission have agreed upon an Action Plan to diminish the flow of migrants (7 Oct). Although the details have yet to be solidified, the program establishes economic funds, in addition to the billion euros of assistence already established, to improve conditions in existing refugee camps as a means to encourage refugees to stay put and not begin embark upon their journey to Europe. In addition, the EU will help Turkey by reinforcing its capacity to combat migrant smugglers, for example in the interception of these smugglers by the Turkish Coast Guard. The plan also proposes collaboration with Frontex, the EU’s border agency, in order to exchange ideas and break up trafficking networks.
Turkey warned that it would take action if Russia flies over the Turkish-Syrian border once again (5 Oct). After a Russian plane violated Turkish airspace and crossed the border during attacks in Syria, Erdogan made an express trip to Brussels to meet with the main representatives of the European Institutions and discuss the migratory crisis and the attacks in Syria. At the same moment, the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, received the Turkish Foreign Relations minister, Feridun Sinirlioglu, and declared that “Russian actions are not contributing to the security and stability of the region”. Russia responded by saying that the incident was not intentional but was due to an “navegation error”.
Russia intensifies its aerial attacks against the Islamic State in Syria (2 Oct). In the second round of attacks against terrorist targets, the Russian minister of defense assured Russian aims “against terrorist targets” in the provinces of Homs and Hama. Nevertheless, the United States has criticized the severity and the “inefficiency” of these manoeuvres for attacking regions at high-risk for civilian casualties. The Syrian Observatory, headquartered in Great Britain and which advocates for human rights, has shown that the last Russian aerial attacks targeted a training camp and secret command center near ISIS’s “capital”, Ragga, and that 12 of the combatants had died in the attack. In a statement, the US, UK, Turkey and other members of the coalition in the fight against ISIS urged Russia to halt the offensive.
The conservative and ultra-Catholic Law and Justice Party (PiS) has won the Polish parliamentary elections with 37.7% of the vote, translating into 232 of the 460 parliamentary seats (26 Oct). The exit polls suggest that they could govern alone, an important fact given that it would be the first time that a single party has secured a majority of seats in the Sejm (Polish Parliament) since the restauration of democracy in 1989. The current prime minister, Ewa Kopacz, from the party who garnered the second highest number, Civic Platform (PO), admitted defeat after having received 23.6%. Trailing the two main parties is the group Kukiz (Kukiz’15), led by the rock star who ran on a single issue platform: to implement a simple majority within the electoral system. He secured 8.7% of the vote (42 seats). Falling just shy of securing seats is the Eurosceptic and liberal Korwin-Mikke (Korwin) with 4.9% (the threshold being 5%) and a new party akin to the Spanish political party Podemos (Razem) which burst onto the Polish political scene capturing 3.9% of the vote.
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