I'm going to review every team in the league as I see them, going from worst to first.
#30 - Philadelphia 76ers
PG - Micheal Carter Williams, Justin Holiday
SG - Evan Turner, James Anderson
SF - Thad Young, Arsalan Kazemi
PF - Lavoy Allen, Arnette Moultrie
C - Spencer Hawes, Kwame Brown
D - Nerlens Noel (inj - Return uncertain, Early as December, maybe out for year), Jason Richadson (inj - I'd guess a return after All-Star break), Royce White, Tim Ohlbrecht
With the dump of young All-Star Jrue Holiday the 76ers have captured the Tank title for the year. Their course of action seems clear. I don't look for them to rush Noel back, in fact, I expect they'll ask him to sit out the year and come back strong next season rather than risk re-injury or more wins. J-Rich might not hit the floor for them this year either as I suspect they'll look to move him if he comes back healthy, and if not he might be asked to ride the pine for the most part. Royce White has never been anything other than a distraction.
I don't see much going right for this squad. MCW will struggle. Young, Hawes, and Turner may have nice fantasy production but, I don't think that it'll translate into wins. I could see them bringing in a SF either as a signing or via trade, even so I don't expect much change to overall picture.
Fun fact: Their best player may be Thad Young and their 6th man could be Kwame Brown. Let that sink in a bit.
Projected record: 12/70
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#29 - Phoenix Suns
PG - Goran Dragic, Archie Goodwin
SG - Eric Bledsoe, Shannon Brown
SF - P.J. Tucker, Caron Butler
PF - Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris
C - Alex Len, Miles Plumblee
D - Channing Frye (if healthy), Kendall Marshall, Micheal Beasley, Gerald Green
I left Gortat off the roster. I did it on purpose. I think he's getting moved sooner than later. There is just no reason to have him on the roster, he's only going to make the draft pick worse and hinder the development of Len. I have no idea if Frye comes back or not, I suspect that Suns are hoping for a medical waiver and will push hard in that direction. Beasley and Green are kinda interesting, I could see either or both getting significant run and I have no idea who P.J Tucker is and Butler might not suit this team as much as Green or Beasley.
Phoenix has a little more talent than Philly. At least they can boast a starting PG. But, I think this year will be about developing youth more than anything. I expect they'll try hard to win games and will be at least mediocre on their home floor, but, I don't expect much beyond that. P.J. Tucker might be a nice fantasy sleeper as there might be a lot of folks like myself who are completely in the dark about him (even as a starter in 29mpg his stats weren't much to write home about though). Len is another guy who might be a nice sleeper pick.
Projected record: 21-61
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#28 - Orlando Magic
PG - Jameer Nelson, E'Twaun Moore
CG - Victor Oladipo
SG - Arron Aflalo
SF - Mo Harkless
F - Tobias Harris
PF - Andrew Nicholson
PF/C - Glen Davis
C - Nikola Vucevic, Jason Maxiell
D - Doron Lamb, Ronnie Price, Kyle O'Quinn, Romero Osby
I had a lot of trouble breaking this roster down into 5 positions. Seems like a ton of folks here are going to be playing a couple positions as the coach tries to get minutes in for everyone that deserves minutes. I kind of see a rather short regular season rotation as such with 8-9 guys getting almost all the minutes. If Aflalo is traded it'll shake things up tremendously depending on what they get back.
There is a lot of talent on this squad. I'm just not sure who the alpha dog is. I guess folks are expecting Oladipo to step into that role. And he may well. It's just that there is quite a bit of depth at the swing position. But as I see a rather tight rotation I think these guys will all be fairly fantasy friendly. Seems like a team begging to run, I'm just not sure how fast big baby can drag his bulk up and down the floor. Seems like they might be stronger when they go a little smaller. Is Don Nelson available?
Projected record: 24/58
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#27 - Utah Jazz
PG - Trey Burke, John Lucas III
SG - Alec Burks, Brandon Rush
SF - Gordon Hayward, Richard Jefferson
PF - Enes Kanter, Jeremy Evans
C - Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert
D - Marvin Williams (injured I'm guessing back in January), Andris Biedrins, Ian Clark
Tough call for #27. I had Jazz, Celtics, Bobcats, and Sacramento all vying for the spot. I went with the Jazz for a couple reasons. #1 - They play in the West. As such they'll face a tougher schedule than Orlando, Celtics, or the Bobcats. And #2 - They just have some of the worst depth of the 4 teams in question, being most vulnerable to injury of any of the 4.
I believe the Jazz starters will actually be pretty good. I expect good things out of Kanter, Favors, Hayward and even Burke and Burks. But, when that 2nd unit comes in I expect pretty bad things. Couple that with being one of the youngest teams in the league and running with a rookie PG who frankly struggled in summer league and I think it's going to be a long, long year for Jazz fans. Kanter, Hayward, Favors, and Burke will likely all put up surprisingly good fantasy numbers, it's going to be a good year to be drafting Jazz players. I might avoid Burks and Rush as I just don't know how that battle is going to be decided.
Projected record: 25-57
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#26 - Boston Celtics
PG - Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford
SG - Courtney Lee, Marshon Brooks
SF - Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace
PF - Jared Sullinger, Brandon Bass
C - Kris Humphries, Kelly Olynyk
D - Rajon Rondo (injured, unsure of return, I'll say December), Various
Everything depends on Rondo. Whether this team is in the hunt for a playoff berth or lotto balls. I think it all comes down to one man and his knee. Without Rondo this team is too young. Bradley, sully, and Olynyk in a starting lineup spells growing pains. You put Rondo in there to run the show and suddenly everything looks much better. I'm going to be a bit pessimistic and assume that Boston is going to tank in one way or another. A lot of Boston fans are of this opinion. I'm going to assume they know what they are talking about for now. So, I'm expecting some future moves that help add lotto balls more than anything else.
I'm not sure I really like anyone on here for fantasy purposes that much. I think most of them are likely to go for full value.
Projected Record: 25/57
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#25 - Sacramento Kings
PG - Greivis Vasquez, Isaiah Thomas
SG - Ben McLemore, Marcus Thornton
SF - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, John Salmons
PF - Carl Landry, Patrick Patterson
C - Demarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson
D - Travis Outlaw, Chuck Hayes, Jimmer Fredette, Ray McCallum
What jumps out at me when looking at this squad is their 2nd unit. Isaiah Thomas started last year; Marcus Thornton started 2 years ago, Salmons started last year, and Jason Thompson has been a starter in about 281 games (out of 378). That's a ton of veteran experience on the bench. I don't expect much drop off when the subs come in for the starters. I'm just not sure the starters are that great to begin with.
I'm pretty high on McLemore. I think if he keeps his head on straight and doesn't sit next to Cousins on the... Well ever.. he might be a star in the making. But, we are talking about Sacramento. They haven't been a team that seems to bring the best out of their players for a while now. It'll take a lot of convincing for me to think that they've turned a corner, although getting out from under the use more appropriate word owners will certainly help.
Projected record: 26/526
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#24 - Charlotte Bobcats
PG - Kemba Walker, Ramon Sessions
SG - Gerald Henderson, Ben Gordon
SF - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeff Taylor
PF - Cody Zeller, Josh McRoberts
C - Al Jefferson, Bismack Biyombo
D - Brendan Haywood, Jeff Adrien, ?
The Bobcats brought in Al Jefferson to score some points. I've seen a ton of Al Jefferson, he can score. Problem is he can't do much else. And I have my doubts that a Jefferson/Zeller frontcourt is going to work that well. Add to that an extremely young team and I see some struggles. It'll be fun to watch fans argue for Jefferson for scoring or Biyombo for upside and defense. Should be some fun battles there.
I actually don't think the Bobcats will be terrible. They've amassed a ton of young guys who were drafted quite highly. With any luck those folks will start to develop internally and give the team a lift. I'm a little leery of this team for fantasy purposes, it looks to me like they are going to be running a lot of guys in and out of the lineup and you'll get a different player of the game from one night to the next. I don't see much consistency there except for Jefferson who will shoot when he gets the ball. I know a lot of folks are high on Zeller. I'm not that excited about him as a fantasy prospect this season myself. I'd probably let someone else have him.
Projected record: 27-55
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#23 - Toronto Raptors
PG - Kyle Lowry, DJ Augustin
SG - DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross
SF - Rudy Gay, Steve Novak
PF - Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough
C - Jonas Valanciunas, Aaron Grey
D - Landry Fields, Quentin Richadson, Quincy Acy, Dwight Buycks
I kinda like the starting 5 in Toronto. I think that's a starting unit that will hang with a lot of teams. I'm not so convinced about the bench though. I think it's going to be a situation a lot like Utah where the starters will hang tough but the reserves will dig a hole.
Toronto won 34 games last year. And I think they'll be a bit worse this season with the loss of Calderon and Bargs. I'm sure there will be some addition by subtraction there, but, depth will be impacted as well.
Amir Johnson has always looked like a nice hustle big, I think he could be a nice pickup in the late rounds as his minutes look to be up a bit. As a starting PF last year he put up 10-9-1-1.9 Pretty decent stats with good percentages to go along with it. Lowry should be a bit better this year as well. Then there is the 300lb gorilla in the room. Jonas Valanciunas. I'm glad he's a white guy so I can use that idiom. He really wow'd folks in Toronto during summer league and they are expecting a breakout season from him. If they get that then I'll have to adjust my win total up a few, but, I think it's a little early in Jonas' development to expect a breakout season. I expect something more incremental. Still a solid fantasy center for those that need one.
Projected record: 32/50
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#22 - Milwaukee Bucks
PG - Brandon Knight, Luke Ridnour
SG - OJ Mayo, Gary Neal
SF - Carlos Delfino, Giannis Antetokounmpo
PF - Ersan Ilyasova, John Hensen
C - Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia
D - Ekpe Udoh, Ishmael Smith, Nate Wolters
Milwaukee is a hard one. We're definitely moving into the range of teams with playoff hopes at this point. And I think the biggest knock I have on this roster is that I think most of the roster is built of specialists. Be it a defensive specialist or 3pt specialist or what have you, there seems to be little in the way of players that are just good across the board. I'm not sure if this is by design, some moneyball strategy, or was mostly by accident, but, it appears to be the direction Milwaukee has taken. I'm not anti-specialist by any means, I just don't know how well it's going to play out in practice.
At least everyone should have a defined role.
I think the Bucks could easily surpass this projection if things gel well. I'm just not ready to assume that it will.
Plenty of good fantasy players on here. I won't be surprised to see Larry Sanders go first round. Per/36 he was 13-12.5-1 and 3.7. Amazing production. And not only that, he passed the eye test. So, I see no real reason beyond foul trouble why he won't see those 36mpg. If he's still on the board in the 2nd round I would grab him up like that last hotcake off the griddle.
Edit: The Bucks made a pretty big move after I wrote this; trading Jennings for Knight. I think that hurt their wins a bit, but only a bit. I dropped them one game. I think the trade was more about retaining assets than getting better.
Projected record: 33/49
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#21 - Los Angeles Lakers
PG - Steve Nash, Steve Blake
SG - Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks
SF - Nick Young, Wesley Johnson
PF - Pau Gasol, Ryan Kelly
C - Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill
D - Jordan Farmar, Robert Sacre, ?
Steve Nash is 8 years older than the next oldest starting PG (Jameer Nelson).
Kobe Bryant is coming off Achilles surgery.
Nick Young has a career PER of 12.8.
Pau Gasol is coming off the worst year of his career.
and
Chris Kaman is Chris Kaman.
It's really hard for me to have a team sporting Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol winning only 36 games, but, that's what it's come to. The Lakers just barely squeeked into the playoffs last season, and this year they are minus one Dwight Howard and a year older with Kobe coming off a major injury. Still, Kobe be Kobe, I hate to count them out. If everything 'clicks' for them, they might be better than this. Might even challenge for a playoff spot, but, I consider them a long shot for the post season at this point.
Projected Record: 36/46
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#20 - New Orleans Pelicans
PG - Jrue Holiday, Brian Roberts
SG - Eric Gordon, Anthony Morrow
SF - Tyreke Evans, Al-Farouq Aminu
PF - Ryan Anderson, Jason Smith
C - Anthony Davis, Greg Stiemsma
D - Austin Rivers, ?, ?
This is the Monta Ellis of the NBA. The Pelicans have it all. They've got an All-Star PG. A top tier SG (when healthy and motivated), a multi-dimensional SF, a stretch 4, and a 2 way center. Then I think they've got a fantastic bench. But, also like Monta, they just dont' seem to be winners. This team only won 27 games last season.
But, I don't expect this to be a repeat of last season. I see one of those Cinderalla stories here. Like when the 8th seed Nuggets beat the Sonics back in '94. They just have that kind of lightning in a bottle feel to them. Could I see Greg Stiemsma rolling around on the floor holding the game ball after knocking off the Thunder in a game 7, yeah. I really could see that. But, first they'd have to make the playoffs and that's a very tall order in the deep and talented West. But, I'll be rooting for them to get there anyway.
Eric Gordon could be a nice sleeper pick. Folks will probably shy off after being burnt the last couple years, so he might drop down into a nice value situation.
Projected record: 38/44
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#19 - Washington Wizards
PG - John Wall, Eric Maynor
SG - Bradley Beal, Martel Webster
SF - Trevor Ariza, Otto Porter
PF - Nene Hilario, Trevor Booker
C - Emeka Okafor, Kevin Seraphin
D - Jan Vessely, Chris Singleton, Garrett Temple
Wizards upgraded their backcourt this offseason adding Maynor and Porter to the stable. I think those changes will help propel the Wiz up the standings a bit. But, it also looks like a team that 'should' be in the market to make another move. I'm guessing they are shopping for a 3rd big right now, perhaps trying to get someone to bite on Vessely and Singleton for a veteran stretch 4. I'm not sure they'll find someone, but, I wouldn't be surprised if some more win now moves were made before the trade deadline.
That's two of the reasons I'm boosting their win total from 29 last year to 38 this year. The other reason is John Wall. He had a bezerk end of the season going beast mode. If he can maintain anything close to that kind of production for 75 games he can almost add 10 games to the win column by himself. So, there is room for more upside beyond the 39 wins I'm giving them, but, I'm tempering my optimism of Wall playing more than 65 games until he proves me wrong.
Projected record: 38/44
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#18 - Detroit Pistons
PG - Brandon Jennings, Will Bynum
SG - Rodney Stuckey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF - Josh Smith, Kyle Singler
PF - Greg Monroe, Charlie Villanueva
C - Andre Drummond, Vyacheslav Kravtsov
D - Chauncey Billups, Tony Mitchell, ?
Next time I play hangman, I'm going with Vyacheslav Kravtsov. I'll go ahead and tell folks he's a center who plays for the Detroit Pistons. I'll even do eyeballs and a bellybutton. I'll still win every time.
I gotta say, I am excited to watch Detroit this year. That roster just looks like so much fun. Jennings and Stuckey running the ball down opposing defenses throats with Smith and Drummond blocking any shot that dares originate within 6 feet of the rim. It should be a good show. What I don't like so much is the depth. Especially at the 4/5. I don't have anything against Charlie Villanueva, excepting for his lack of being able to play basketball. Is that too harsh? Maybe. But, if Villanueva and Kravtsov is your 2nd line of defense for your frontcourt I think that's a problem. Especially when Drummond is likely to be in foul trouble a lot. Why this team didn't go out and sign someone boring and reliable as a backup is beyond me. Surely there must be guys like Nazr Mohammed looking for work right now.
Still. Other than the Jazz, Detroit is right up there with Minny in the teams I wanna watch play basketball.
I think they take a big leap forward this year on the back of one Andre Drummond and lock up the 7th seed.
I think it'd be nice to sign Bill Walton as your color guy. I can hear him now, "Make a free throw big fella!"
Projected record: 39/43
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#17 - Portland Trailblazers
PG - Damien Lillard, CJ McCollum
SG - Wesley Matthews, Allen Crabbe
SG - Nicolas Batum, Dorrell Wright
PF - Lemarcus Aldridge, Thomas Robinson
C - Robin Lopez, Meyers Leonard
D - Sasha Pavlovic, Joel Freeland, ??
Portland had a couple problems last year. No center and no bench. Both problems have been addressed this year. Robin Lopez comes in to hold down the center position and McCollum, Crabbe, Wright, and Robinson come in to shore up that terrible bench.
This is a team with a top PF, last years Rookie of the year, nice role players in Batum and Matthews and some decent depth. Would that they played in the East, because it's just not enough in the West. A lot hinges on just what they can get out of guys like McCollum and Robinson. Those are pretty big question marks. And is there a trade to be had? For instance I had Gortat leaving the Suns, could he end up in Portland and push Lopez to the bench giving them that much more power? Could happen. If the Trailblazers swing a deal like that for a guy that can oust an incumbent starter you have to move them up the rankings significantly. And they've got the goods on the roster to swing a deal, it just takes two to make it happen.
I like Lopez as a fantasy sleeper. Unless they bring in a player like Gortat I see no reason he won't get a ton of minutes and he's pretty productive at least in blocks when he does.
So, for now I have them as a very capable team, able to beat anyone on any given night and should be very strong at home. But, at 41 wins that's only good enough for 12th place in the West.
Projected record: 39/43
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#16 - Dallas Mavericks
PG - Jose Calderon, Devin Harris
SG - Monta Ellis, Wayne Ellington
SF - Shawn Marion, Vince Carter
PF - Dirk Nowitzki, DuJuan Blair
C - Samuel Dalembert, Brendan Wright
D - Jae Crowder, Shane Larkin, Bernard James
My house is 20 years old. Some of the shingles are starting to fall off. Every time I mow the laws I find another shingle somewhere around the property. It's starting to look a little shabby. We've gotten some bids to do some repair work, and the first one came in about 2500.00. Seems like an awful lot to me. But, a new roof is going to run 10 to 12k. And that's a real awful lot. A metric butt ton of cash. And we're trying to weigh the option of just patching the roof up for a few more years or just biting the bullet and getting it all done the right way.
The Mavericks have obviously decided that patching is the way to go.
I mean the whole roster just screams, "lets just surround Dirk with whatever vets we can get to come in here and see what happens" to me. The Mavericks have missed out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes for 2 years running now it seems like they've decided to just cobble a team together and try to weather another year or two while Dirk is still around. I think it was a missed opportunity, I'd have probably taken the Danny Ainge approach myself.
It's hard to see them missing the playoffs behind Minnesota with all those veterans, yet that's how I feel it'll happen.
Projected Record: 39/43
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#15 - Cleveland Cavaliers
PG - Kyrie Irving, Jarret Jack
SG - Dion Waters, CJ Miles
SF - Earl Clark, Alonzo Gee
PF - Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett
C - Andrew Bynum, Anderson Vareajo
D - Tyler Zeller, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix
I guess the thinking in Cleveland must be that with Irving, Thompson, Waters. and Bennett that there is enough young talent on the team to add a big free agent and compete for a top 4 seed. And while I think Bynum and Jack were excellent signings I just worry that they jumped the gun. I do have them making the playoffs, but as an 8th seed. And I doubt they'll give the #1 seed much of a scare.
That being said, if Bennett is an impact player consummate with his draft position they may indeed be looking at a top 4 seed. I just am betting against it. Still, Cav faithful should enjoy a return to post season relevance.
There is nobody here that excites me for fantasy. In fact, I'd stay away from Jack and Vareajo this year, too much uncertainty for minutes.
Projected record: 40/42