Regular readers of my blog expect a certain style of writing when they read my stuff.
Grammatically strewn with errors and shite spelling. I left school in when The Specials were at Number 1 and I had a hair cut like a member of Def Leppard. If you like my writing, you come back. If you don’t then you read other stuff. No problem there.
Recently I was kindly invited by Betfair to write for them for the Betting.Betfair columns. LINK
I spent hours (literally) writing this piece, I thought it contained my usual style of humour and detailed explanations. Unfortunately there were too many words, so they took a few bits out.
Now the beauty of having your own blog, is that you can write as many words as you jolly well please. So that I do not get labelled as a boring c***. I have decided to give you the original. Spelling mistakes and bad grammar and all. I have no Degree in English Literature,as you can see I can hardly string a coherent sentence together.
Anyway, here it is. Obviously the bit at the bottom is promoting my Blog and Gruss.
The Premier League – Early Season Preview
The Premier League winners market is a happy place for me. Over the years I have managed to get my snout right into this trough. A couple of weeks ago I had a good look at it and hatched a cunning plan. I have a position in this market, which I took on 18th June. I backed Manchester United at 7.2 the following ramblings will detail why, and hopefully let you inside my twisted mind.
What I want to make clear from the start is I am trading this market. Who may actually win it next May is not in my mind. This type of trade for me is incredibly satisfying, the amount it makes doesn’t really matter. It’s an enormous and complex puzzle. It has many twists and turns along 9 Month journey. It will keep me constantly alert to what is happening in the League as I look for opportunities to add to the green column in my book along the way.
I thought it might be interesting to maybe give an insight into the thinking behind 1st trade that I have opened in the 2014/15 EPL Winners Market. You could and probably will argue that writing this after events have unfolded is pointless. But in fairness most of the factors used in the decision-making haven’t really changed.
Let me lay some foundation stones here and take you back to when I placed the trade. It was 18th June. The day the fixture list was published. This was the catalyst.
We all know there are few teams with any hope of shot of the big prize. Not many would have included Liverpool in that category this time last season. My list has 5 potential candidates. Lets look at the Transfer business they have concluded so far.
Arsenal
Have made a couple of interesting signings since the World Cup, which I didn’t see coming to be honest. Alexis Sanchez is a top quality player, but no by means world class. But I think the well touted, but yet to be confirmed addition of Sami Khedira will add some much needed steel to their midfield. On the negative side, the have lost Bacary Sagna to Manchester City on a free transfer. Although he has been replaced by Debuchy from Newcastle. Priced at an optimistic 7.6
Chelsea
Chelsea did their business early in the transfer window. Snapping up Cesc Fabregas was a great signing. Not so sure about Diego Costa though. He has plenty of fans. I am not one of them. The exits? Torres’ days have to be numbered, and love him or hate him. Ashley Cole was and is a top class left back. The best piece of business in the transfer markets this summer was by José. Offloading David Luis for £38M??? A blagging this size not seen this side of the Great Train Robbery. As you may have guessed, I am not a fan of the most over rated player ever to wear a football kit. The markets have reacted positively to Chelsea’s business so far, and are favourites at 3.
Liverpool
Brendan Rogers’ first bit of business just before the start of the World Cup caught many by surprise. He signed Andy Carroll. Sorry, I mean Ricky Lambert. Hmmmmm, Not sure about this. Lambert is an old fashioned number 9. Gets goals for sure, but not sure where he fits in the Liverpool team. Maybe it’s to add another dimension? Adam Lallana is an exciting talent however, and fits very nicely into the Liverpool style. The other signings look to be bit part players (like Lambert I suspect) but losing probably the best striker in the World at this time has to be a massive blow. Postal workers all over Liverpool will be relieved now that the rabid Suarez has departed to Barcalona. Rumour has it he has to stay in quarantine for 30 days! Outsiders of the “famous 5” at 11.5. They are claiming to have a £100M to spend.
Manchester City
The Champions are going to be quiet in the transfer market this year. Their punishment for falling foul of U.E.F.A financial regulations means they can “only” spend £49M this year. Sagna on a free, a fellla called Fernando ( I have an image in my head of a gorgeous Swedish blonde sitting around a camp fire and a playing a tune on a penny whistle – I always preferred the blonde in ABBA, but I think his beard put me off J). They also bought a Keeper called Willy from Malaga. This comes to £23M leaving £26M. The days where you got a decent player for £26M have long gone. Most disturbing are the persistent rumours that Yaya Toure is being pursued by Real Madrid. As these stories all involve his agent, the warning signs are there. Yaya leaving would be a huge blow to Man City. So with no major signings possible. The odds have settled at 3.55.
Manchester United
Like many of you, I have enjoyed Man Utd’s fall from their perch. But my own twisted view never gets in the way of the serious business of making money from Sport. So what do I make of United’s transfer dealings?
Luke Shaw is a good start. A bright young player with a big future. The other signing is Ander Herrera for £28M. According to Nicky Butt. They are struggling to get a World Class midfielder, so he was the best they could get. Doesn’t sound too good. But that was before LvG took over. I believe that there is more business to be done for sure. They have lost their 2 main central defenders. Vidic and Ferdinand. Johnny Evans is not an international quality defender. Phil Jones isn’t much better. There is no way they will go into the new season with those 2 in pole position surely? Any big signing will move their price. They are currently 6.4.
My thinking when looking for a “way in” is what events will move the prices on these teams pre season?
Transfers for sure. But there are lots of subtle little changes that will have an overall effect. I don’t believe the masses will be getting involved in this market properly until the final few days before the season begins. As this is a lively market throughout the season, another shift maybe the end of the transfer window. Which is bizarrely is 1st September.
This is my view so far:
Arsenal: Have done the majority of their business. I cannot see anything else moving their odds.
Chelsea: A great transfer window so far. But their business you feel has been done. No reason for their odds to move in any more.
Liverpool: They are giving it “large” about “big” signings coming. But I can’t get Ricky Lambert out of my head. I don’t think the public believes they can replace the human Jack Russell that wore that famous No 7 either. Their odds may move slightly if they sign Ronaldo or Messi. But Suarez is in that bracket of player. Their chance has passed.
Manchester City: I think the challenge for Man City is keeping what they have. They do not have enough of their £49M left to sign an impact player that will move their odds. I don’t believe they will move in either.
Manchester United: Just read that LvG sanctioned the new signings. Their non appearance in the Champions League may be a barrier to a big European signing. But the Are Manchester United. Something else to consider is what happened to Robin Van Persie last season. He was AWOL for large parts of the season. The real RvP will re-emerge now he has a friendly face backing him. When he scored that incredible diving header against Spain he had a right cuddle with Louis Van Gaal. As it stands without Giggs, Ferdinand and Vidic and the addition of the 2 new boys. They are in a worst position than when the season ended. It cannot stay that way, the Red Army will not stand for that. Will they?
I haven’t finished with Man Utd yet. There are some other details that swayed my position besides their lack of transfer activity. A new manager. This guy is a very impressive individual. He has a World wide reputation and has managed both Barcelona AND Bayern Munich to Championships, although it hasn’t always been plain sailing. The Dutch run in this year’s World Cup further enhanced his reputation.
But the clincher for me was the fixture list. Lets have a quick mosey thought it.
The first week sees the top 5 all having straightforward matches. The hardest being Liverpool v Southampton, but as most of the Southampton team now play for Liverpool it should be a home win. Man City are away to Newcastle.
Week 2 (23rd Aug) is more interesting as Arsenal have a tough away fixture at Everton. On the Monday night Man City entertain Liverpool. So points will be dropped somewhere there.
Week 3 (30th Aug) The stand out is Chelsea away to Everton Spurs also welcome Liverpool to “The Lane”
Week 4 (13th Sept) Arsenal v Man City…….nice! More dropped points
Week 5 (20th Sept) Man City play Chelsea. It gets better!
Week 6 (27th Sept) The Merseyside derby at Anfield and the North London derby at The Emirates. That’s Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Spurs to the uninitiated.
Week 7 (4th Oct) On the Sunday Chelsea play Arsenal and Man Utd at last get some opposition form the top half of the table in Everton at Old Trafford.
By this point with many of the top 5 having played each other, it’s not impossible that Man Utd could be 6 points clear. It’s also possible that Chelsea or Man City did well against their rivals and is clear. However, that’s not the point.
I believe that people really get active in these markets right at the death. The weekend when the season starts. When all those pull outs that every newspaper publish giving you the “guide to the season” Once Joe Public starts to actually look at the fixtures. Maybe some smart assed tipster will even point this out?
In my opinion, and I always back my opinion with real money. Manchester United were too big at 7.2. As advised to the guys in my Mentorship group. They are now 6.4/6.6 as I type. So I can be accused of blatant after timing. However I will be disappointed if I cannot see 6 or even lower pre season. I call this type of bet RvR. Or Risk v Reward. Was there any downside? Not really, the reasons well documented throughout the article. The reward is always much bigger. You could be aggressive with staking here too.
My exit is clear. Take out a lay bet equal to the stake at the best lay price I can get. I will almost certainly be asking for the back price for an extra tick. I’ll then keep all my profit on Manchester United and see how it goes. If the fixture list plays out as I hope, it may be possible to green up/cash out at around 4 or lower by the time Everton arrive at Old Trafford in October.
I can almost hearing you saying “big deal”. But bare in mind this type of trade is akin to free money. The risk is minimal; it’s a trade and not a bet. It’s very slow moving and has high liquidity. The Betfair matched volume is £756,000 and £736,000 of this matched on the top 5 at time of writing.
This is a market I will be very active in over the season. My positions will be more and more complex as it all unfolds. To help with Bet management I believe that using 3rd Party Software is a must. I recommend giving Betting Assistant form GRUSS Software a try. I 20 day FREE trial and £6 a month for this powerful, but easy to use bit of kit is a no brainer really. You can download it HERE