Chandler Jones and the Cardinals welcome the Patriots to Arizona on Sunday night. (Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports)
The NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a rematch of Super Bowl 50. Trevor Siemian is no Peyton Manning (well, maybe 2015 Peyton Manning) but when Brock Osweiler gave the finger to Broncos in the offseason, Denver was forced to settle. The last time we saw Cam Newton, it was a flurry of Crying Jordan faces on Twitter after he chose not to jump on a fumble, prompting America to question his compete level on the biggest stage. Super Bowl hangovers are real, but the Panthers are just too talented on both sides of the ball to suffer a letdown. Denver’s hangover will largely be the result of free agent departures.
The game of the week will be on Sunday night as the Cardinals, the team with the league’s best offense, host the Tom Brady-less Patriots in a matchup of championship game losers. Jimmy Garoppolo will throw his first pass to Rob Gronkowski — and Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola — in front of a national audience. Many Patriots fans expect Jimmy G. to go at least 3-1 in Brady’s absence, setting the stage for Brady’s Week 5 return that will be the most anticipated game involving the Browns since Earnest Byner gift-wrapped the 1987 AFC championship for the Broncos. Arizona, on the other hand, is expected to win early and often in 2016.
The Vikings’ playoff hopes were dashed before the season began when Teddy Bridgewater’s knee proclaimed “No mas” during a non-contact drill. So many people like the Raiders right now that it’s hard to imagine things going well for them. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper were great in their first year together, but when everyone agrees on an NFL prediction, it usually falls apart. The Giants were forced to fire their most successful coach after an up-and-down decade, and now Ben McAdoo will try to salvage the last few years of Eli Manning’s career. Holding up the rear are the usual suspects: the Browns, Rams, Chargers, 49ers and Titans. But a new member of the group includes America’s Team: the Dallas Cowboys. Usually Tony Romo waits until the team shows real promise before dashing the hopes and dreams in Dallas. Let the Dak Prescott era begin.
1. (1 last year) Cardinals (13-3) — Seven months after a humiliating loss in last year’s NFCCG, the Cards have had some time to figure out what went wrong. They added Chandler Jones via a trade from the Patriots to bolster the defense. Arizona led the league in offense and returns with its entire unit intact.
2. (2) Panthers (15-1) — At 27 years old, Cam Newton is coming off an MVP season just as he hits his prime. The curious decision to cut Josh Norman will affect the defense, but the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin from a torn ACL should counteract that. Carolina plays in one of the weakest divisions in football and will roll to another NFC South title.
3. (3) Patriots (12-4) — New England added Chris Hogan and Marcellus Bennett to an offense that scored the third-most points in the league last year. Jimmy Garoppolo will experience a learning curve as he faces real NFL competition for the first time in his career. Despite the loss of Chandler Jones, many think this defense could be Belichick’s best since 2004. Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Malcolm Butler, Chris Long, Rob Ninkovich, Barkevious Mingo, Duron Harmon, Alan Branch and Logan Ryan all are entering the final year of their contracts.
4. (6) Bengals (12-4) — Marvin Lewis enters his 14th season as the HC of the Bengals, despite a career playoff record of 0-7, highlighted by last year’s flag-filled meltdown vs. the Steelers. Andy Dalton returns from an injury that sidelined him for the end of the season and playoffs, ensuring that the team will play great in the regular season only to choke it away in another wild card loss.
5. (4) Broncos (12-4) — The reigning champs are a VERY different team in 2016. Two pillars of the defense, Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, signed lucrative contracts in Jacksonville and Chicago. The team let Brock Osweiler walk and is now banking on Trevor Siemian,a 7th round draft pick with ONE career snap (a kneel down) to lead the back to the Super Bowl.
6. (10) Steelers (10-6) — Suspensions to Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell mean that Pittsburgh will start the season shorthanded on offense, but not in a crippling fashion. Antonio Brown still is the best receiver in football, and Ben Roethlisberger is enjoying a bit of a renaissance in the twilight of his career. The big question with this team will be on the defensive side of the ball. In their first season without Dick LeBeau, the Steelers allowed 272 passing yards per game, third worst in the league.
7. (11) Seahawks (10-6) — After Seattle started last season 2-4, many thought the run of dominance was over. An 8-2 finish put the Seahawks into the playoffs, but the campaign ended with a loss to Carolina in the divisional round. Marshawn Lynch hung up the cleats in the middle of Super Bowl 51, handing “Beast Mode”duties to Thomas Rawls, who had an impressive 5.6 yards per carry in 2015 but is recovering from a broken ankle. Doug Baldwin emerged as Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target. The team couldn’t quite figure out how to use Jimmy Graham last year and likely will have to wait until he’s fully recovered from a torn patella to do so.
8. (8) Packers (10-6) — The Packers have been the trendy Super Bowl pick since Aaron Rodgers became the full-time starter in 2008. Since his Super Bowl win in 2010, Rodgers is 3-5 in the postseason. The team’s biggest offseason acquisition was the return of Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL 2 1/2 minutes into the 2015 season. Former Rams TE Jared Cook has a chance to catch 40-50 passes. General manager Ted Thompson decided not to extend RB Eddie Lacy, who likely realizes that he needs a strong performance this fall if he hopes to sign a major contract next offseason.
9. (5) Chiefs (11-5) — Kansas City was the hottest team entering the 2015 playoffs and rolled the Texans 30-0 in the AFC wild card game. A 27-20 loss to the Patriots in the next round derailed KC’s season and snapped an 11-game win streak. Linebacker Justin Houston will start the season on PUP as he recovers from ACL surgery. Alex Smith did little to change the notion that he is the NFL’s prototypical “game-manager.” In 2015, Smith ranked 20th in yards per game and touchdowns per game, despite the emergence of a legitimate wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin. Jamaal Charles has had a great career, but even when he was healthy the team was 1-4 to start the season, before losing him to a torn ACL.
10. (7) Jets (10-6) — After a contentious offseason, Jets fans now can breathe easy as their hero, Ryan Fitzpatrick, will lead the team into the 2016 campaign. Brandon Marshall seems to have a lot of good football left in him, as does Matt Forte, but Darrelle Revis regressed last year. Dee Milliner, who was drafted ninth overall in 2013, was cut last week. Antonio Cromartie, whose performance fell of a cliff in 2015, was released in February. Coach Todd Bowles has to hope that Fitzpatrick’s 2015 season wasn’t the statistic anomaly that everyone else thinks it was.
11. (13) Texans (9-7) — Brock Osweiler showed enough promise as a Bronco to justify a huge contract from Houston, including $37 million guaranteed. DeAndre Hopkins is the second-best receiver in the league, behind Antonio Brown, and could develop even further with a semi-proven QB at the helm. The defense has been the only reason this team has had success during the past five years, so if Osweiler pans out, the Texans could overtake the Colts for supremacy in the lowly AFC South.
12. (12) Redskins (9-7) — At 9-7, Washington coasted to an NFC East title in 2015. (For the record, the Redskins could have won it outright at 8-8. That’s how bad the NFC East was last year.) Kirk Cousins played well in his first season as an NFL starter, but he will have to improve greatly to overcome the team’s massive deficiencies on defense. The Redskins scooped up Josh Norman for big money in hopes that he would help improve an abysmal secondary.
13. (17) Raiders (7-9) — Derek Carr and Amari Cooper showed great chemistry in Cooper’s rookie season. They could be good for years to come if both stay healthy. Khalil Mack is this year’s trendy pick to usurp J.J. Watt as the Defensive Player of the Year.
14. (9) Vikings (11-5) — A popular pick to wrest the NFC North crown from the Packers, the Vikings fell to heaps on the practice field a week ago. Teddy Bridgewater was coming along nicely, and all signs pointed to 2016 being his breakout season, until he dislocated his knee and tore his ACL during a non-contact drill. The Vikings then chose to mortgage the future and send a first-rounder (and a conditional fourth) to the Eagles for NFL iron man Sam Bradford. Despite the trade, Minnesota will start the season with 36-year-old journeyman Shaun Hill under center for a Week 1 matchup with the Titans.
15. (14) Falcons (8-8) — Matt Ryan has another toy in Mohamed Sanu to complement Julio Jones. Devonta Freeman accounted for over 1,600 yards last season, while Jones flirted with 2,000 receiving. When coach Dan Quinn was lured from Seattle, he was expected to fix the terrible defense that Mike Smith left behind. While the team is slowly getting better on the defensive side of the ball, it’s still a quarterback league, and Matt Ryan needs to play like he did in his first five seasons in the NFL.
16. (18) Giants (6-10) — Ben McAdoo helped the Giants offense improve greatly in each of his two seasons as the offensive coordinator. As the new head coach, he’ll have to step away from the offense and spread his focus among all three phases of the game. He has a couple of new toys on defense in Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins. Eli Manning should benefit from the return of Victor Cruz, who hasn’t played since Week 6 of 2014.
17. (15) Bills (8-8) — Rex Ryan’s defense was average in 2015 (19th in yards allowed) and so was the Bills’ record. They’ll need to improve despite the loss of Mario Williams. Sammy Watkins is recovering from a foot injury and hopes to hit the ground running in Week 1, but there are no promises. Chris Hogan departed for New England, so if things don’t work out with Watkins, the Bills will have to rely heavily on the run, as they did last year. Tyrod Taylor played well in his first season as the starting QB, but he will have to learn to stay in the pocket and make plays with his arm.
18. (16) Colts (8-8) — Until the offensive line proves that it can protect the team’s $187 million QB, the Colts are doomed to fail. Andrew Luck suffered shoulder, spleen and abdominal muscle injuries in 2015. If Luck gets some time to throw, he has two talented receivers in T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. At 33, Frank Gore is one of the older RBs in the league and shouldn’t be expected to shoulder the ground game. Of course, none of this matters if the defense doesn’t improve. Indianapolis allowed nearly 380 yards per game last season.
19. (27) Ravens (5-11) — John Harbaugh has proven to be one of the better coaches in the league, but this year’s squad has virtually no playmakers on offense. Steve Smith Sr. has been pushing off Father Time for a few years now, but at 37, it’s safe to say he’ll have a significant decline in production. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil were hurt last season, so the Ravens pass rush might be slow to develop as those two players ease into the season.
20. (19) Bears (6-10) — The departures of Matt Forte and Marcellus Bennett will make life tough for Jay Cutler. The Bears started a massive roster overhaul midseason in 2015 and likely will have to wait at least one more season to start expecting results. Over the last three years, no defense has allowed more points.
21. (21) Buccaneers (6-10) — Jameis Winston threw for 22 TDs in his rookie campaign, but like many rookie QBs, he turned the ball over quite a bit (15 INTs and two lost fumbles.) His immaturity concerns seem like they’re in the distant past. Dirk Koetter has been promoted from OC to HC, which should help Winston’s development since he doesn’t have to learn a new system and can build on last year’s progress.
22. (22) Lions (7-9) — Shockingly, the Lions retained the services of coach Jim Caldwell, all but guaranteeing that Detroit will have to wait another year for a playoff win. Calvin Johnson retired with gas left in the tank, accepting his fate as the next Barry Sanders. Matthew Stafford is good, but not good enough to carry Detroit to a winning season.
23. (24) Jaguars (5-11) — Blake Bortles threw a lot of TDs last season (35) but he led the league in interceptions (18) and sacks (51.) He has two good, young WRs in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and two good TEs in Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis. The AFC South has become the “Young QBs” division, and Bortles has as good a chance as any to have a long and successful career.
24. (23) Eagles (7-9) — Eagles executive VP of football operations Howie Roseman is fervently trying to erase all remnants of the Chip Kelly era. The biggest trade of the offseason (Sam Bradford from Philly to the Vikings) means that rookie QB Carson Wentz will start in Week 1 vs. the Browns. Luckily for Wentz, of the first nine games the Eagles play, only three are against teams with a winning record.
25. (26) Saints (7-9) — Drew Brees still is one of the best passers in the NFL, but a dearth of weapons will doom New Orleans in 2016. Brandin Cooks is good, but not great. Mark Ingram could have a breakout season, but RBs rarely affect a team’s overall success. However, the other side of the ball has been the problem for quite some time. The Saints defense ranked 31st or worse in three of the last four seasons.
26. (25) Dolphins (6-10) — I’m sure you’re sick of hearing it over and over, but Miko Grimes has proven to be the voice of reason regarding the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill stinks and will never win in the NFL. New coach Adam Gase will attempt to install another offensive system that Tannehill won’t be able to grasp. Free agent addition Arian Foster will miss half the season due to injury.
27. (20) Rams (7-9) — Stan Kroenke strong-armed Dean Spanos (with the help of Jerry Jones) and won the relocation extravaganza. Unfortunately for him, with Jeff Fisher running the show on the field, the Rams are destined to go 8-8 with rookie Jared Goff under center. Aaron Donald has quietly become the most dominant defensive lineman in the game, and Todd Gurley is the next Adrian Peterson, but the NFC West still belongs to either Seattle or Arizona.
28. (30) Chargers (4-12) — San Diego said goodbye to its professional football team at the end of last season. Now the Chargers have to awkwardly return to Qualcomm stadium and play in front of a fan base that knows owner Dean Spanos tried to relocate. Expect another mediocre-to-bad season in a division that has some of the best defensive teams in the league.
29. (28) Cowboys (4-12) — A preseason blow to the spine might end Tony Romo’s career in Dallas, if rookie Dak Prescott plays well to start the season. Prescott has been spectacular in games that don’t count, against players who won’t play in the regular season. If he can learn to throw the ball to Dez Bryant 15-20 times per game, he’ll be off to a good start. Jerry Jones loves nothing more than a flashy draft pick, and Ezekiel Elliott fits the mold. Elliott could be 2016’s Todd Gurley.
30. (29) 49ers (5-11) — Chip Kelly was run out of Philly after gutting the team he inherited. Drastic changes in San Francisco won’t happen until Chip can prove that he can either run a pro-style offense or turn Blaine Gabbert into Marcus Mariota. Since that’s unlikely to happen, Colin Kaepernick will get his chance to make headlines for reasons related to football in just a few weeks, when he gets another shot at the starting job.
31. (32) Titans (3-13) — The addition of DeMarco Murray should help the development of Marcus Mariota. An odd pairing, Mariota is a product of Chip Kelly, and Murray was coveted by Chip Kelly. Now they play together in an offense that is unlike anything Kelly has ever run. The Titans removed the interim tag from Mike Mularkey’s title and have given the 18-39 career head coach the job. The team traded away its No. 1 overall pick this year to the Rams and could have two picks in the top 10 (possibly top five) next year, so the plan should involved keeping Mariota healthy for the entire season and preparing to be good by 2018.
32. (31) Browns (3-13) — The glow of a Cleveland Cavaliers NBA championship ends on Sunday, as Browns fans will be reminded that they’re the laughingstock of the NFL. Robert Griffin III will attempt to prove that a 135-pound QB can make it through an NFL season. He won’t. Johnny Manziel has re-enrolled at Texas A&M and could prove to be a top 10 QB draft bust. Worst of all, the starting RB for the Browns will be Isaiah Crowell, a deplorable human being who makes Colin Kaepernick seem tame.