LANRE ADEWOLE puts in perspective the inner crises in the two dominant parties over candidate nomination for National Assembly seats and allied matters.
FOR the two dominant political parties in Nigeria, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), candidate nomination challenges are different in proportion. While it is mainly presidential for the opposition, given the contending ambitions at that level within its fold, PDP is understandably bursting at the hems over senatorial tickets, considering the fact that out of its 21 incumbent governors, 15 are rounding off their second and final tenure and expectedly, almost all of them but one, Liyel Imoke (Cross River), have expressed the desire to go to the Senate, thereby continuing in this dispensation’s tradition of governors heading for the Senate after their tenure.
As leaders of the state chapters of their parties, the outgoing governors are expected to have a smooth sail but the decision of the national leadership of the PDP, headed by a former governor of Bauchi State, Adamu Mua’zu and backed by the national leader of the party, President Goodluck Jonathan, to throw the contest open for popular candidates to emerge across political offices is currently tugging at the soul of the party.
Abuja’s ban on hand-picked candidates for elective offices, including successors to the outgoing governors, has further heightened the tension in the party, with the outgoing governors said to be unhappy with Mua’zu, seen as the arrowhead of the opposition to their plan. The situation has reportedly widened the gulf between him and the governors who are said to have been having issues with him since his early days in office after he allegedly refused “goodwill” from them.
The schism over National Assembly seats is further widened by the reported resolve of the PDP national leadership to honour the promise made to the party’s senators and members of the House of Representatives in leadership positions in the two chambers, to give them automatic tickets back to the National Assembly in return for coordinating the endorsement of Jonathan as the sole presidential candidate of the party.
This decision is creating bubbles in states like Cross River where Senate leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba, is seeking a fourth term; Enugu where Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekeremadu, is seeking to return as Senate President David Mark’s loyal deputy; Kogi where influential Senate committee chairman on FCT, Smart Adeyemi, is seeking third term; Akwa-Ibom where governorship zoning and his senatorial ambition are pitching Governor Godswill Akpabio against old political war horses in the state, including his predecessor, Obong Victor Attah, among other states.
Enugu
The state is providing the biggest public spectacle over the colliding senatorial ambitions of both Governor Sullivan Chime and Ekweremadu, who are both from Enugu West Senatorial District. The Deputy Senate president was said to have initially decided to succeed Chime but the governor, who had reportedly said publicly that no federal lawmaker from the state would be given a return ticket, is said to have masterminded the zoning of the governorship ticket to Enugu North, thereby edging Ekweremadu out and subsequently picking Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi as the consensus governorship candidate. The senator’s resolve to return to where he is coming from is said to have been met with resistance from Chime, who reportedly had to replace his younger brother, Jide Chime who he had reportedly initially anointed for the Senate, with himself as a more formidable opponent to the senator.
The party in Chime’s Udi Local Government had openly endorsed Ekweremadu while PDP national leadership is unshaken in its resolve to bring Ekweremadu back. Chime’s visit to Wadata Plaza in Abuja on Tuesday and the alleged cold shoulder from Mua’zu were the climax of the crisis. The denouement would be hard to predict since the party’s structure in the state is also no longer in Chime’s pouch, with the rejection of his anointed chairman by the National Working Committee of the party.
Akwa-Ibom
While Chime allegedly had it rough at Wadata Plaza, Akwa-Ibom State governor, Goodswill Akpabio, got a major reprieve with the endorsement of his zoning arrangement that favoured his anointed candidate. But the victory may not count much because Chime was also not challenged over Ugwuanyi’s choice. Akpabio’s decision to retire to the Senate has brought him on collision path with Senator Aloysius Etok, representing their Akwa-Ibom North-West senatorial zone. There have been allegations of threat to life, among other things. Despite the party coming out for Akpabio on governorship ticket, Chime likely made more gains. The party leaders and elders in Enugu are not arrayed against Chime over his successor as Akpabio. Attah didn’t mince words in telling Jonathan to expect an exodus from the party which might be very costly if Akpabio is allowed to have his way. Twice, Akpabio had triumphed over Attah, Don Etiebet and others, will he be thrice lucky?
Cross River
The national leadership is committed to Ndoma-Egba’s fourth term project, but Imoke is not. The governor is fighting the war by proxy. He is not seeking a senatorial ticket, but has propped up the chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriation, Honourable John Owan Iloh. The Cross River Central senatorial seat has seen the governor and Senate leader firing broadside. The party’s structure is in Imoke’s grip. Abuja has the final say.
Benue
Senate President David Mark’s endorsement by all PDP stakeholders for a return to the Senate and possibly its headship was overwhelming but a former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Defence, Mike Onoja, is not flowing with the crowd. He can’t understand why Mark should be angling to spend 20 years representing Idoma in the Senate when there are even worthier Idoma sons and daughters. Mark who has been in the Senate since 1999 is the choice of Jonathan, Wadata Plaza and Governor Gabriel Suswam, but the battle for the Benue South Senatorial District is far from over. Onoja is popular among his people. Endorsement may not count for much when the chips are down. However, the real battle in Benue is between Suswam, who is angling to snatch Benue North-East ticket from a former national chairman of the PDP, Chief Barnabas Gemade. Since both declared their ambitions, the party has known no peace in the state. Jonathan is being forced to take sides. Wadata is reportedly minded to honour one of its own. Jonathan sending Vice President Namadi Sambo to represent him at the burial of Gemade’s mother was also read as moral support for the incumbent senator, despite the absence of the governor, who chose the period for his annual vacation abroad. Is another Jonathan’s friend about biting the dust here?
Osun
In Osun State, particularly Ife/Ijesa Senatorial District, it is a straight battle between former customs top brass, Ade Fadahunsi and former NEMA Director-General, Chief (Mrs) Oluremi Olowu.
Both are from Ijesaland, to which the ticket has been zoned, following the emergence of Ife-born Senator Iyiola Omisore as the party’s standard-bearer in the August 9 governorship election in the state.
Omisore, who obviously holds the ace, is reportedly backing Olowu, while Fadahunsi is relying on other party big-wigs in the state to turn the tide around. He is reportedly adopted by stakeholders in the zone.
As the governorship candidate, Omisore is the leader of the party in the state and the party’s structure is undeniably in his pouch. Will the candidate, who is still in court challenging Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s election, step in and do the needful? Will his intervention be acceptable to Wadata Plaza?
Kogi
In Kogi State, the third term ambition of Senator Smart Adeyemi is throwing the age-long zoning arrangement in Kogi West into disarray.
With a turn-by-turn arrangement mainly between Okunland and Lokoja/Kotonkarfe, and zoning within ethnic cleavages, Adeyemi will be making history if he succeeds with the third-term ambition.
Senator Tunde Ogbeha from Lokoja/Koto represented the senatorial district between 1999 and 2007, with Adeyemi taking over when zoned to Okunland from 2007 till date and expected to yield to Lokoja/Koto in 2015.
His decision, said to be predicated on an alleged promise of automatic tickets to all senators of PDP hue, is reportedly creating a spin in the state chapter of the party.
It took presidential intervention in 2011 for a former governor of the state, Ibrahim Idris, to let go of the senatorial ticket for Adeyemi, having raised an aspirant against him from the same Okunland.
Adeyemi has the backing of Abuja but his old nemesis, Idris, still holds the levers of the party in the state and his successor, Captain Idris Wada, is expected to line behind his benefactor. But Wada is also a close ally of Sambo, who may want to go with his boss on the matter. Adeyemi is a “Villa senator” through and through. His fate hangs in the balance.
Nasarawa
In Nasarawa State, governorship and senatorial ambitions are intertwined. Stakeholders would gladly support a return to the Senate for Solomon Ewuga to reduce the governorship tension in the state but the reality on ground is that the party’s ticket is a straight battle between the immediate past Minister of Information, Mr Labaran Maku and Ewuga, though there are seven other aspirants.
While Abuja is reportedly backing Maku, seen as Jonathan’s man, Ewuga is seen as the debatable leader of the single largest ethnic grouping in the state, the Eggons.
With over 42 per cent of voter population in the state, the Eggon tribe is sure to determine where the pendulum will swing in 2015 and the party is said to be squeaking under the pressure of making a choice between two prominent sons who are not ready to concede to each other. Maku resigned to pursue his governorship ambition while Ewuga has been gunning for the office since 1999.
Imo
Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, has an open cheque to return to the lower chamber as agreed by national party leadership but he opted for governorship. He joined forces with the “renegades” to spit in Jonathan’s face over Mulikat Akande-Adeola and emerged a major beneficiary of the “mutiny.” His co-conspirator, Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, has moved to APC to seek Sokoto governorship almost on a platter. But Ihedioha will surely not have a roller coaster with the party leadership said to be eyeing a major political force that could kick Governor Rochas Okorocha of APC out. All eyes are said to be on Ifeanyi Araraume who almost became governor in 2007 before the then President Olusegun Obasanjo scuttled it. The issue of trust and party loyalty will always be there for Ihedioha.
Lagos
Two names are dwarfing other nomination issues in Lagos PDP political space: Jimi Agbaje and Musiliu Obanikoro. The rumoured adoption of Agbaje by party leader, Chief Bode George and the presidency and Obanikoro’s insistence to take another shot at the Lagos top job is rumbling the party within. Jonathan, according to George, denied endorsing anyone though he kept hearing one particular name everywhere he went. Insiders knew that name was Agbaje’s, who is likely to be paired with an Igbo man, a ticket reportedly targeted at sweeping the said 23 per cent Igbo votes of the total votes in Lagos. Obanikoro is a dogged political fighter, who is surely not going down without a fight. But for a man that just left Jonathan’s job, he may find it difficult saying no to his former employer who could also be his future employer. Another Jonathanian is headed for a bruising here.
APC’s headache
In spite of the fact that all attention is on its presidential ticket, the APC is having nomination challenges at the level of governorship and particularly the National Assembly, though not as pronounced as PDP’s. With eight of its governors seeking re-election and six rounding off (four of them seeking either presidential or vice presidential ticket), its major nomination issue, apart from presidential, is how to handle contending agendas on National Assembly tickets, considering merger arrangement that must accommodate outside interest.
Oyo
With all the senators of the party already in other parties, it should be a free reign for Governor Abiola Ajimobi in picking their replacements. But there is a snag. His party is allegedly in talks with some other smaller parties. Having the re-election ticket will definitely require a lot of horse-trading, giving and taking and sacrifices. If he succeeds in locking his ticket down, he may be too battle-weary to insist on being the final authority on who gets what as regards the National Assembly.
Osun
Governor Rauf Aregbesola won re-election due largely to last-minute support from disgruntled PDP chieftains. One of such, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, was reportedly promised senatorial ticket of the party, which may see incumbent Senator Mudashiru Oyetunde Husain of Osun West being shoved aside. The largely amorphous senator and the other better-known one that are likely to be sacrificed may not want to go down without a fight. And what if Aregbesola reneges on his promise to the PDP gladiators? Interesting scenario here.
Ogun
If Governor Ibikunle Amosun wins re-election, it will prove his sagacity. Dumped by all senators, members of the House of Representatives and now his deputy, the governor is a loner, but the party’s structure is in his hands and fully backed by APC national leadership. If the Olusegun Osoba’s faction will succeed in teaching him a political lesson, it will have to be during the general election. Amosun is walking a tight-rope with a resurgent and cohesive PDP and a determined faction. He can’t be too careful in doling out National Assembly tickets.
Lagos
One major senatorial ticket creating ripples in Lagos APC is one currently held by Remi, wife of the party’s national leader, Senator Bola Tinubu. While the Lagos West currently held by Senator Ganiyu Solomon is now going to the deputy governor, Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, with the resolve of the incumbent senator to seek governorship ticket, Gbenga Ashafa is to return to the Senate with Lagos East ticket while the Lagos Central ticket held by Remi is what many thought should go to Governor Babatunde Fashola, also from Central. But Remi is not letting up and it will be sacrilegious to dump the leader’s wife. Fashola, however, is crucial to the well-being of the party in South-West, the expected presidential battle ground. This possibly accounted for factoring him into the presidential race. But his camp in Lagos is not buying the South-West endorsement for the VP ticket. His religion is overshadowing other considerations for the job at the national level. Tinubu is a master strategist. When the chips are down, he can sacrifice even himself to sustain the platform. He did it in 2011 with Solomon. Remi may end up being a casualty of class interest.