Ben Gaddis posted a blog post
Drones: The Revolution Will Be Commoditized
A few months ago, Amazon surprised quite a few people with the announcement that they’re planning for a drone delivery service. Many were thrilled with the possibilities of a mindless alternative to the USPS, but just as many were leery. Are drones a business reality or just another flash in the pan technology, backed by some serious Amazon PR fuel?In particular, many marketers are asking what impact drones, aka unmanned aircraft system (UAS), will have on their business. To understand where drones are headed it’s often helpful to look at how similar disruptive technologies have evolved, and how companies have embraced them.Emerging technologies follow a path called the Disruptive Technology Cycle as they make their way from shiny object to business critical tool. There are multiple ways to graph the process of this disruption and our variant looks at technology a little more through the marketer’s lens.Whether you care about drones or not, understanding a disruptive technology cycle will help you to spot the next trend on the horizon, and understand its implications while there’s still time to gain a first-to-market advantage.The Disruptive Technology CycleAs drones evolve and become more commonplace and commoditized, they will follow a predictable path to commercialization. One that we’ve seen many emerging technologies follow. (see image below)Disruptive Technology: The Evolution CycleAs we look at each phase, keep in mind that this progression isn’t purely linear. The edges of each phase can blend and overlap, or even occur out of order. But for the most part, you can look at previous breakthrough technologies and see how they moved along the very same path, in the same sequence.Phase I, Operational Utility: Getting it done.In the operational utility phase, businesses first embrace a new technology to do things more efficiently. Led by early adopters, this phase is more rogue and people are often just trying to get their jobs done in the quickest and most effective way possible.The most visible example of drones in this phase is remote aerial photography.Over the past few years, professional drone videographers have hired themselves out to all sorts of businesses. Want to show a majestic view of that hilltop property your brokerage is listing? You can shoot a drone video for a tiny fraction of what it would cost to hire a real helicopter.Similar industries are also taking notice. A recent Wall Street Journal article featured Greek land surveyor George Papastamos, who has been able to reduce his workforce from 12 to 2, using drones to cover massive amount of land quickly.Filmmakers are quickly grasping the massive promise and cost-efficiencies of UASs and also, are skirting FAA regulations in the process. The filmmaker’s equally disruptive solution, as reported by NPR, is to take their aerial work underground.However, where the real work gets done is decidedly less sexy and largely hidden from public view.According to Bloomberg, Hurricane Sandy has spurred utility companies to consider using drones to identify damaged power grid infrastructure after major storms, when debris-strewn roads may not permit trucks and works from reaching affected areas. Day-to-day operations are where drones are likely to earn their keep.For instance, utility companies need to do inspections all the time, not just after disasters. Sending a work crew up to inspect thousands of utility poles, remote regions of power plants, or the tip of refinery flare towers is time consuming, dangerous and expensive. Outside the U.S., private companies already offer utility inspection and land surveying performed by a UAS. Once the regulatory hurdles in the U.S. are overcome—more about that later—major utility companies here will undoubtedly be purchasing and operating their own UAS inspection fleets.Remote photography and infrastructure inspection are just two examples of drones in the operational phase. Today drone usage in most organizations is in this phase of a technology’s evolution. But, drones are evolving quickly into the next phase.Phase II, the Gimmick: Hey, Look What We Can Do (Maybe, Some Day) For many marketers, the gimmick phase might also be thought of as the “why didn’t we think of that first,” phase. That’s because an immutable law of the gimmick phase is that by the time you notice a new technology being featured in publicity stunts, your opportunity to make a splash with it is already over.With drones, Amazon got lots of ink and pixels across quite a few news cycles by revealing that they were looking into using the machines as delivery vehicles. Not that they were actually doing it, just that they were thinking about doing it. (Actually doing it would be part of the service differentiation phase, to be discussed next.)Similarly, Lakemaid beer of Wisconsin got lots of press and social media play when the FAA put the kibosh on the brewery’s not-fully-baked plans to deliver beer to thirsty ice fishermen via UAS.Never mind that neither of these companies were currently using UAVs. They publicized their intentions. Flirting with the technology was enough to get people talking about their brands. That’s maximizing the power of the gimmick.Phase III, Service Differentiation: How May We Help You... Better?As brands take a new technology beyond operations and beyond gimmickry, the next stop is the customer-facing experience. How can that technology be used to improve, enhance and differentiate the customer experience?Take insurance companies. Fast claims response is something insurance companies use to differentiate their brands. Imagine that in the wake of a natural disaster a company’s claims adjusters could fly a UAS into areas they couldn’t otherwise reach. That brand could demonstrate greater responsiveness than its competitors in a more immediate and meaningful way.If and when Amazon and Lakemaid Beer get past talking about UASs (and around FAA restrictions) and actually deploy fleets of drone delivery vehicles, they will have moved from the gimmick phase to the service differentiation phase.With UASs, this is where the playing field gets a bit more level and where late arrivals may still be able to deploy the technology for commercial advantage. That’s because of those aforementioned FAA regulations.The FAA has published a fact sheet “busting myths” about the FAA and unmanned aircraft as they work toward “safe integration” of UAS by September 30, 2015. The agency stated that it expects to publish a proposed rule for “small UAS” (under 55 pounds) later this year. In the mean time, the FAA is addressing common myths and the “corresponding facts.” • You many not fly a UAS for commercial purposes by claiming that you’re operating according to the Model Aircraft guidelines (below 400 feet, 3 miles from an airport, away from populated areas. • Commercial operations are only authorized on a case-by-case basis. • A commercial flight requires a certified aircraft, a licensed pilot and operating approval.The applicability and demand to use UASs is so great, that the FAA is conducting tests that many hope will help it to figure out how to permit and regulate commercial usage sensibly.When that happens, the potential for brands to use UAS flights to deliver more value to customers will be limitless. This will make drones truly ubiquitous and drive down the cost of the technology, ushering in the next phase.Phase IV, Consumer Commodity: Papa’s Got a Brand New DroneWhen consumers grow accustomed to all sorts of brands using UAS flights to enhance the customer experience, it’s inevitable that the devices will be adapted and marketed for home use. Few dogs ever really fetched the newspaper, but some day someone’s UAS might. Or wash the windows, or paint hard-to-reach trim, or fetch an order from the pharmacy, or deliver a forgotten lunch to school.By the time this disruptive technology gets here, flight control will be largely autonomous. You won’t need to be a skilled joystick jockey to use one. Rather, you’ll tap commands into a smartphone app and your drone will take it from there. The devices will be so useful and commonplace, that it will be hard to remember they were once confined to industrial use and gimmickry. Brands will have to find a way to integrate into that new reality.Does this progression seem too simple? Too pat? If so, maybe it’s because you’ve seen it happen this way over and over again, without really realizing it.The computer, mobile phones, sound and video presentation technology, robots, the “cloud”—when you think about it, all of them, to varying degrees, have evolved through this same cycle. Wearables seem destined to be next. After that, well, just keep your eyes open. When the next big thing takes off, you’ll be ready to fly with it.Ben Gaddis is Vice President of Growth and Innovation at T3.See More