New Delhi, March 9: The countdown to the counting day for the Assembly elections in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa – has begun. Before the results on March 11, exit polls of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur Assembly elections will be announced today. While the exit poll results were earlier scheduled for March 8, the Election Commission clarified that its ban on exit polls would continue till 5.30 pm on March 9. The numbers of the exit polls are expected to start pouring in at 5.31 pm. Meanwhile, predictions, guess-work and analysis have already begun with different picture emerging for different states as poll pundits, astrologers and experts get to task. With exit polls scheduled at 5.31 pm today, we take a look at whether the predictions this year can crack the code in all five states.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017: No clarity, no unanimity
Uttar Pradesh has been an high-voltage battle this year, more so with Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing a whopping 24 rallies in the state and the Samajwadi Party and the Congress joining hands. Many poll pundits, journalists and experts have argued that there is a clear Modi wave in the state and that the BJP may be sweeping the Uttar Pradesh elections. “Hindutva politics based on anti-Muslim propaganda and ‘hope’ embodied in the Modi persona offer a deadly combination: The UP voter may well be intoxicated by it this time,” India Today’s Rajdeep Sardesai has said. On the other hand, there are also those who seem to be placing their bets high on ‘UP ke ladke’ Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi. There is also a word that Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati may be the dark horse in the race for UP.
Uttar Pradesh is much more than the politics that plays on television channels. Caste-based votes, community sentiments still play a significant role in turning the results any which way in the state. Regional parties continue to have a loyal voter base. From what it seems, the fight in the state has left experts confused. It remains to be seen whether the exit polls are as mixed up as these predictions and analysis. A similar pattern played out in Bihar in 2015 and the exit polls went horribly wrong. While most exit polls gave BJP a clear mandate, it was the grand alliance that took away 178 seats in the Bihar elections 2015.
Punjab Assembly Elections 2017: New entrant, three-way fight – a tough one to crack
Punjab this year has been an interesting battle. Unlike the traditional two-way fight that has been there for years, the northern state saw a clear intense three-fold battle in 2017. The entry of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party into the mainstream politics of Punjab seems to have turned this elections into an eye-catcher. In fact, most poll pundits have even indicated at a possibility of the AAP sweeping to victory in Punjab. On the other hand, many are also arguing that with the return of Captain Amarinder Singh at the helm of affairs in the state Congress, the party could be doing well this election. The state is also looking at anti-incumbency with the Parkash Singh Badal government having completed two terms in Punjab. Many say that with the polling percentage high in the Malwa region, the AAP seems to be gaining. However, the 2007 election in Punjab had seen Congress emerge victorious in the Malwa region, yet go on lose the Punjab election.
There are also those placing their bets on the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party combine. As exit polls roll out this evening, it will be interesting to see if there is any unanimity on the state of Punjab. Such exit polls had failed even when it was a two-way battle in Punjab in 2012. While the exit polls had predicted a Congress victory, the SAD-BJP alliance retained power. Now, with a third party in the fray, a party that even won four seats of the state in the Lok Sabha Elections 2014, it could be anybody’s game in the state. This election is likely to be a tough one to crack for the exit polls.
Uttarakhand Assembly Elections 2017: Rebels at play
The Uttarakhand Assembly Election 2017 has been a fierce battle with rebels creating chaos within the Congress as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party. The state saw at least 1000 candidates switched loyalties in the state. What’s more interesting is that these rebels chose to contest against the party that they had quit or had been expelled from on the same seat. Uttarakhand has seen a political turmoil in the past one year with the BJP asking for a President Rule in the state while the Harish Rawat government proved its majority retaining power. The Congress government in the state has tried to use BJP’s ‘foul play’ as a poll plank this election. Meanwhile, the BJP is hoping that ‘Modi wave’ will prevail in Uttarakhand too.
Poll pundits have argued that this may be the case and that the Modi wave indeed may be prevalent as the results roll out on March 11. On the other hand, some opine that no clear mandate may be emerging out of Uttarakhand. It is indeed difficult to ascertain how the ‘rebels at play’ factor may have impacted the Uttarakhand elections. This, too, is a tricky game for the exit polls.
Manipur Assembly Elections 2017: Anti-incumbency glares
In 2012, the Bharatiya Janata Party didn’t get a single seat in Manipur even as it fought on only 19 out of 60. This year, the party has contested on all 60. In fact, poll pundits even argue that this may be the end of the Congress’s 15-year rule in the state. The BJP during its campaign has promised to pull Manipur out of turbulence and economic blockade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at his Imphal rally, promised to remove the economic blockade and BJP President Amit Shah even said that this will be done within 24 hours of the party coming to power. On the other hand, the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) remains a boiling issue in the state. Activist Irom Sharmila, who has been fighting against AFSPA for the past 16 years, has also entered the fray, even as she contested only on three seats. Meanwhile, Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh remains popular, especially is his own constituency of Thoubal.
Poll pundits have argued that the BJP may be taking this one away. Whether a party can go from zero to clear victory in the state is difficult to ascertain. However, the AAP has proven that notion wrong in Delhi. But then, Manipur’s issues are different from Delhi. There are also some experts that are analysing a neck and neck contest in Manipur. It will be interesting to see what the exit polls spell out and what emerges on March 11.
Goa Assembly Elections 2017: Can AAP play spoiler?
The Goa election this year saw a record voter turnout of 83 per cent. Like Punjab, Goa, too, has seen the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party in the state politics, making this election a four-cornered fight between the ruling BJP, Congress, the AAP and the grand alliance of Shiv Sena, Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM). A high voter turnout in Delhi favoured the AAP in 2015. However, in Goa, the picture is different. Even as former chief minister and now Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar is out of the state, in the Centre, he has campaigned tirelessly along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state. But, there is also a word that the Congress may be gaining popularity in the state and so is the AAP. This, therefore, is a mixed bag. Which way the high voter turnout goes is difficult to ascertain. It is usually seen that a high voter turnout indicates change of throne. However, the AAP can play spoiler.
Significantly, in 2012, the exit polls had indicated a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress. However, the BJP emerged clear winner then. It is likely to be similar this year, specially with the AAP making its way into the state.