We’ve known for a year that Democrats would run the most negative campaigns we’ve ever seen. Like clockwork, candidates have pulled from the DSCC playbook across the map – from Colorado to New Hampshire, North Carolina to Iowa. Those false, nasty attacks and negative campaigns are coming back to haunt those candidates.
A CNN/ORC poll out this morning shows Cory Gardner leading Democrat Mark Udall in Colorado 50% to 46%. Clearly Udall and his liberal allies’ smear campaign has backfired. Udall’s fav/unfav is 45%-51% while Gardner is viewed favorably by 50%. In Iowa, Joni Ernst leads Bruce Braley despite the onslaught of negative ads from the left. In New Hampshire, Scott Brown is surging while Jeanne Shaheen does little but attack.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explains the dynamic in Colorado: “Udall is getting clobbered in the all-important suburbs, as well as in rural areas, and his lead in Colorado cities is not enough to overcome that…There is a gender gap, but in this case it appears to be working in favor of the Republican. Udall has a nine-point advantage among women, but that is dwarfed by the 20-point lead Gardner has among men.” The new poll comes on the heels of newspaper endorsements (five!) of Gardner across the state.
The widely circulated Denver Post endorsement of Gardner notably included a complete rebuke of Mark Udall’s negative campaign: “Udall’s campaign has devoted a shocking amount of energy and money trying to convince voters that Gardner seeks to outlaw birth control despite the congressman’s call for over-the-counter sales of contraceptives. Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision. His obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”
In addition to endorsing Gardner, the Colorado Springs Gazette also rebuked Udall’s ‘War on Women’ playbook. They wrote, “On the average day for the past several months, Udall’s campaign has produced multiple statements with each mentioning his support of “birth control,” “contraception” and/or “abortion” a dozen times or more. They did not come from 527s or other outside groups, but directly from the campaign. One might think Roe v. Wade hadn’t been decided 41 years ago. Or that women had no other pressing concerns. The single-issue campaign became downright embarrassing for Udall on Tuesday when the Denver Post’s Lynn Bartels, arguably the dean of Colorado’s political press corps, asked him during a debate whether he took the whole social issues thing a bit too far.”
This morning, Cory Gardner is out with a forward looking new ad that is a clear contrast with Senator Udall’s ongoing dour, negative campaign. Despite its failures, Democratic Senators and candidates in North Carolina, Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska, and New Hampshire continue to use the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee playbook, and in the process are losing undecided voters. Mom used to say, “If you can’t say anything nice, don’t say it all.” While politics ain’t beanbag, Democrats could learn a thing or two from mom.
Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring
Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H
2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR
(2014) ABC/Washington Post Poll: Among Likely Voters, GOP more trusted on:
Economy +13
Coping with problems of country +8
Immigration +11
Deficit +17
ISIS +22
Health care Tied
(KY, AR, IA, CO) Gaffe explosion: Democrats have the worst of the worst candidates
Oh. My. These maneuvers get Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) off the hook for the most tasteless attack. Pryor accused his opponent Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a combat veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, of harboring a sense of “entitlement” — while his own family works to preserve the family dynasty. Close behind in the awfulness department is Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa), who got caught sneering at the state’s revered Sen. Chuck Grassley and more generally at farmers.
(KANSAS) NEW U.S. Chamber of Commerce Ad: “Greg Orman Supports Obama Administration”
NEW American Commitment Ad: Fight for Free Speech (Thank You Pat Roberts)
(ARKANSAS) Pryor in debate: Middle class goes up to $200K
Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) said in Tuesday night’s debate that middle-class families make up to $200,000 a year, remarks that drew a strong rebuke from Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). “Under the law there’s a lot of different definitions of middle-class, but when I think of the middle class I think of most of Arkansas, and maybe that goes up to $150,000, $200,000, there’s different ways to judge it,” Pryor said when asked how he defined the middle class. “I’d say probably up to $200,000, there’s different definitions but that’s my working definition,” he said a minute later when asked to give a precise number.
(ALASKA) Poll: Alaska Senate: Sullivan (R) 48%, Begich (D) 45%
(LOUISIANA) Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu: Obama rates “a 6 to 7″ out of 10
Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu framed Louisiana’s Senate election as a referendum on her three terms in office, not the policies of unpopular President Obama, in the first TV debate featuring all three major contenders in the race. Landrieu showed her hand on the last question of the evening, when asked during a lightning-round session how she would rate Mr. Obama’s performance on a scale of 1-10. “A six to seven,” the endangered Democrat replied. It wasn’t the first time of the night she attempted to distance herself from the president. Boasting her support of fossil fuels, Landrieu told voters in her oil-rich state: “I do not agree with President Obama on his energy policies.”
SHOT: Mary Landrieu Says She Will Not Support A Balanced Budget Amendment
CHASER: Mary Landrieu Promised To Vote For A Balanced Budget Amendment in 1996
McCain, Vitter stump for Cassidy
(COLORADO) Momentum: Gardner leads Udall in Colorado Senate race
Republican Cory Gardner has opened up a four-point lead in a Colorado Senate race that’s key in determining whether Democrats can hold onto their majority, a new CNN/ORC poll shows. Gardner held a 50 percent to 46 percent edge on first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in the survey of 665 likely voters, conducted Oct. 9-13. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Cory Gardner to return to Washington for Ebola hearing
New Gardner Ad: Fix It
(NEW HAMPSHIRE) GOP candidate Brown takes first poll lead in New Hampshire Senate race
Republican candidate Scott Brown has taken his first lead in a poll against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, although the results are statistically a dead heat. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator, led Shaheen by 1 point in a New England College poll released Tuesday. However Dr. Wayne Lesperance, a professor at New England College, noted that the race was neck and neck. “This week Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 48 percent to 46.9 percent,” he said in a press release. “However, this is well within the 2.98 percent margin of error. So the Senate race is just too close to call.”
Portman to join Brown for stop at Hampstead coffee shop
WATCH: Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire Ad: “Jeanne Shaheen Has Gone Washington”
Romney returns to Hudson to stump with Brown
(KENTUCKY) Alison Lundergan Grimes and the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day
There are good days and bad days on the campaign trail. Then there’s the kind of day Alison Lundergan Grimes just experienced. A day after the Kentucky Democrat’s only debate against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) — seen as arguably her last, best chance to overtake him — came word that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is no longer on the air in Kentucky. Democratic and Republican spending decisions are increasingly important as the election draws near. The DSCC’s Kentucky decision telegraphed decreasing confidence in Grimes’s chances, at least relative to other spending priorities.
DSCC Goes Dark in Kentucky
Hollywood Maxes Out On Donations To Grimes’ Senate Campaign
NEW Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: “Abandoned”
(VIRGINIA) Puckettgate Engulfs Mark Warner
Richmond Times-Dispatch Editorial: The Puckett scandal just keeps growing. What started as a story about one retiring member of the Virginia Senate now reaches all the way to the United States Senate. Earlier this year Democratic lawmaker Phil Puckett announced he was retiring — a move that threw control of the chamber to the GOP, broke a legislative stalemate over the budget and doomed whatever chance Gov. Terry McAuliffe had to expand Medicaid, as he so desperately wanted to do.
Mark Warner’s debate from hell
Gillespie tours fishery
(IOWA) NEW Joni Ernst ad: Biscuit
Joni Ernst Calls on Congressman Bruce Braley to Update Congressional Website to Reflect True Numbers
(NORTH CAROLINA) CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Hagan Firm Received Second Federal Solar Grant
JDC Manufacturing, a company co-owned by Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s husband Charles “Chip” Hagan, received a $50,000 renewable energy grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture in July 2011, less than a year after it got a $250,444 stimulus grant for a related project. The two grants were used for the installation of rooftop solar panels on a 300,000-square-foot building in Reidsville owned by JDC, and leased to Plastic Revolutions, a recycling company also owned by the Hagan family. Both solar installations were done by Green State Power, a solar energy contractor owned and managed by Chip Hagan, his son Tilden, and son-in-law William Stewart.
ETHCIS LAPSE: More Stimulus Problems for Kay Hagan
NEW U.S. Chamber of Commerce Ad: “Rand Paul Supports Thom Tillis”
Hagan Husband Pocketed Stimulus Savings
(SOUTH DAKOTA) Rounds draws more national support
Former presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will campaign with Rounds on Friday in Sioux Falls. The noon event is open to the public at the Sioux Falls Ramkota Hotel. Rounds and Huckabee have a long connection, having served together as governors. Rounds was national chairman of Huckabee’s 2008 presidential run; Huckabee endorsed Rounds for Senate last May. Another former presidential candidate, Rick Santorum, is endorsing Rounds and traveling to South Dakota for some yet-unannounced purposes today. Tomorrow, the Tea Party Express is holding a news conference with Rounds in Rapid City, almost certainly to endorse and back Rounds.
Larry Pressler for D.C. Mayor?
Larry Pressler Changed His Address On His Website From D.C. To South Dakota
(MONTANA) NFIB Backs Daines for U.S. Senate
America and Montana’s voice of small business today endorsed Steve Daines for the U.S. Senate. “Steve Daines’ pro-small-business record in the U.S. House, combined with his three decades of entrepreneurial experience, would have made him our choice against almost anyone,” said Riley Johnson, Montana state director for the National Federation of Independent Business. His work ethic is a model for others. He’s always back in the state during Congressional breaks, rolling up his sleeves and serving the people, and his staff has been very accessible and attentive to small business’ needs.”
(MINNESOTA) McFadden releases ‘Contract with Minnesota’
With Election Day looming only a few weeks ahead, a GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, Mike McFadden, is working hard to distance himself from incumbent Al Franken. McFadden recently released his “Contract with Minnesota,” which is a list of actions he says he will take if he is elected. “I’ve not run for office before and I’m proud of that,” McFadden said on a stop in Fergus Falls Friday, saying that his real-life experience would be an invaluable asset in Washington D.C. With this contract, McFadden says that he will do several things that Franken has failed to do.“I will visit each of Minnesota’s 87 counties each year,” McFadden said, adding that Franken was unable to say whether or not he had been to each county during their last debate.
CURRENT NRSC ADS
Alaska – Hole
Arkansas – Time
Colorado – Show Up
Iowa – ISIS
Iowa – Proud
North Carolina – Admitted
South Dakota – Just Like
POLLING BRIEF
Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll – Oct. 8-12
Republicans remain in a favorable position heading into the midterm election
The share of voters who see the country on the wrong track has reached the highest level ever in a midterm-election year. And an election that once was thought to hinge on health care and other domestic issues is increasingly shadowed by international crises that weren’t on the radar just a few months ago.
Pollsters for both parties who conducted the survey predict Republican gains in the House and Senate, as the poll found that likely voters prefer a GOP-controlled Congress over a Democratic one, 46% to 44%.
Continued low job-approval ratings for President Barack Obama, including a record-low 31% approval for his handling of foreign policy among registered voters, with 61% disapproving.
One of the wild cards in the final weeks of the midterm campaign is the rise of foreign affairs as an issue on voters’ minds. The fight against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria ranked third among issues that voters said would be important in their vote for Congress, beyond job creation and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington.
The outbreak of Ebola also is making an impression on voters, as 98% have heard or read about the deadly virus, a record level of awareness of major news events tracked by Journal/NBC polling.
The poll comes as many Republicans are bullish about the prospects of gaining the net of six seats they need for a majority in the Senate, and of expanding their majority in the House. Fifty-two percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic about this election than past ones, compared with 40% of Democrats.
ON THE TWITTERS
@mikeallen – SIREN: FLORENCE, Ky. (AP) – The DSCC has stopped running TV ads in Kentucky’s Senate race, a troublesome sign for Alison Lundergan Grimes
@HotlineJosh – #wavewatch RT @SamFeistCNN: Breaking CNN-ORC #COSen poll: Cory Gardner (R) 50%, Mark Udall (D) 46%. +/- 4%. http://cnn.it/1vckJ3U
@JenniferJJacobs – “By a 47-41%margin, Iowa likely voters have a favorable opinion of Ernst. Braley gets a split score, with 42% favorable & 44% unfavorable.”
@JRubinBlogger – Mark Warner’s debate from hell http://wapo.st/1w67odx
@EvanMcSan – “Hey guys look at #SDSen!!” – Dems to everyone while they quietly prepared to pull of of the air war in #KYSen