There are just 84 days to go until Election Day and Republicans are not only well positioned but favored by nearly every reputable forecaster to win the Senate majority. The reason? This class of GOP Senate candidates is the strongest in decades (if not ever). These candidates are capable of winning, not just in red states like Arkansas and Montana, but in purple states like Colorado and Iowa and in blue states like Oregon and Minnesota. It is entirely possible that Republicans can pick up between 10–14 seats this cycle if each campaign operates to its potential and capitalizes on a political environment that strongly favors them. Additionally, there is a very real possibility that four new Republican women will be sworn into the Senate in January.
The strongest class of GOP candidates in decades. Here are just a few:
Arkansas: Tom Cotton, a 36-year-old veteran and hero has been called “the Future of the GOP.” As Marin Cogan reported late last year, “He won the first endorsement from Marco Rubio’s PAC for the 2014 cycle. Cotton has been the subject of intensely positive coverage from National Review and The Weekly Standard—including one profile so glowing it prompted Slate’s Dave Weigel to remark that it was ‘best read while listening to John Philip Sousa and cooling an apple pie.’ The result is that Democrats are fumbling in their search for an angle of attack.” Cotton consistently leads in poll after poll this year, forcing the Pryor campaign to release internals (often conflicting with other Democratic polls) to assure donors that the campaign has life.
Alaska: The Republican primary in Alaska is on August 19 (the NRSC remains neutral), yet poll after poll shows Mark Begich stuck around 45% and in a statistical tie with several potential Republican opponents. If Democrats tell you that’s a good position for an incumbent Senator with a known name in his state, you might want to think twice about buying a bridge from them. Their lack of confidence in Begich is why they are trying to meddle in the Republican primary.
Colorado: Stu Rothenberg wrote of Cory Gardner, “Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is an excellent candidate, and his energy and sunny disposition will help make him broadly appealing.” The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza referred to him as a “rising star within the party.” Colorado is perhaps the closest race in the country, but Mark Udall is most certainly hampered by the lethal political combination of Gardner’s energy and his own team’s arrogance (including the DSCC) about their standing in the state.
Iowa: Months ago, Chuck Todd said that Joni Ernst is the candidate who Democrats fear. They have good reason. After her victory, Stu Rothenberg has called Iowa our best pickup opportunity. The combination of an “interesting Republican nominee in Ernst” plus missteps by Braley “has smart Democrats fretting about the contest,” Rothenberg said. Meanwhile, The Hill’s Cam Joseph wrote, “Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has run a strong race so far, and Democrats admit Braley’s lackluster campaign is cause for alarm. ‘Braley has shot himself in the foot again and again. We have a lot of work to do’ said one national Democrat.”
Louisiana: Bill Cassidy is the strongest candidate that Mary Landrieu has ever faced. Worse, the environment is unlike anything that Landrieu has ever faced. As Chuck Todd once noted, “Without the president on the ballot, I have to say, I don’t know if the numbers work for her any more, work for any Democrat anymore. This is a unique — she has not had to run with this few registered Democrats in a nonpresidential year, it’s going to be really tough for her.” Remember, Landrieu barely was reelected in 2008, a wave year for Democrats, against an opponent who ran a heavily criticized campaign.
Michigan: Michigan is a dead heat. The last several polls show a statistical tie. Think about that. If someone would have told you 14 months ago that Democrats would be spending millions to hold Carl Levin’s seat, you wouldn’t have believed it. The reason Republicans are performing so well is thanks to Terri Lynn Land, about whom Nate Silver wrote, “Republicans will have an excellent candidate in Terri Lynn Land, the former secretary of state. She comes from the old guard of moderate Michigan Republicans, instead of the tea party wing that might have preferred a candidate like Rep. Justin Amash.” Even Slate’s Dave Weigel admitted that, “Democrats are putting this pressure on Land because their candidate is still struggling to reclaim the usual Democratic advantage.” He’s right.
Minnesota: Larry Sabato recently called Minnesota the “Sleeper” race of 2014, noting that Mike McFadden “appears to be positioned to run a moderate-conservative campaign that could allow him to compete with Franken while not alienating his base.” Stu Rothenberg also recently upgraded McFadden’s chances, and the surging candidate also delivered the National Republican Address this week in response to President Obama.
Montana: The Democratic candidate ended his campaign in disgrace, but Steve Daines just keeps on going. Daines has run one of the strongest campaigns in the country which is one reason why Democrats have now given up on the state.
New Hampshire: As the Boston Globe reported, Scott Brown’s challenge of Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen “adds New Hampshire to a growing roster of up to 11 states where Republicans are increasingly on the offensive, forcing Democrats to spread their resources to defend their turf.” They’re right. WMUR’s James Pindell recently noted that New Hampshire is always a late breaking state. Don’t fool yourselves, Democrats know that as well.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis is the candidate that it seems Democrats actually hate the most. They talk about him with vitriol and personal disgust, but that’s likely because he’s favored to win and, as Politico characterized, “a top tier challenger.” The latest polls show the North Carolina Republican in the lead, and Stu Rothenberg has observed that Tillis, “has the style that many successful Senate candidates possess. If nominated, he should be a formidable general-election candidate.” Get to know the candidate that Democrats in Washington have an unhealthy hatred for here.
We’ll have more tomorrow, but Republicans also have top tier candidates in Oregon (Dr. Monica Wehby), West Virginia (Shelley Moore Capito), Virginia (Ed Gillespie), Georgia (David Perdue), South Dakota (Mike Rounds) Nebraska (Ben Sasse), and New Mexico (Allen Weh). In contrast, Democrats have been plagued by abysmal candidates who have struggled simply to stay afloat. September and October are primed to be tough months for them.
Seize the day,
Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring
Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H
2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR
(2014) Obama fund-raiser highlights Democrats’ political imperative
It was a jarring contrast. Minutes after President Obama solemnly spoke about American air strikes and the “difficult days ahead” in Iraq, he headed to a home perched atop a bluff in Martha’s Vineyard to charm wealthy donors at a fund-raiser. The appearance was a reminder that Obama, despite confronting some of the most tumultuous world events of his presidency in recent weeks, is also the leader of a Democratic Party that is increasingly worried about losing its grip on the US Senate. Tickets to Monday’s fund-raiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, held at the home of child-care magnates Roger Brown and Linda Mason, were priced from $15,000 to $32,400.
(IOWA) Braley does it again! Talks down to Iowans “in terms they can understand”
In a 2011 radio interview in Florida – apparently he still doesn’t have time to keep his promise to come on my show – Congressman Bruce Braley says he overcomes his elitist image by talking to Iowans “in terms they can understand”. Well that should go a long way to getting rid of that whole “elitist” thing!
(COLORADO) Gardner Hits Udall On Obamacare
Republican Senate candidate Cory Gardner is going after Democratic senator Mark Udall for voting for Obamacare in a new TV ad. The 30-second spot shows the GOP congressman holding up a cancellation letter he received from his health insurance provider. “When Mark Udall voted for Obamacare, he promised us if we liked our health care plan, we could keep it. Well, you know how that worked out,” Gardner says in the ad. “I got a letter saying that my family’s plan was canceled. 335,000 Coloradans had their plans canceled, too.”
(GEORGIA) New NRSC Ad: Respect
(WEST VIRGINIA) Romney to campaign in West Virginia on Aug. 19 for US Senate, House hopefuls
In two weeks, former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will campaign for West Virginia’s U.S. Senate and House hopefuls. The former Massachusetts governor will attend an Aug. 19 Charleston fundraiser and Beckley rally for Shelley Moore Capito, Alex Mooney and Evan Jenkins. The three races are key as Republicans look to tip traditionally Democratic West Virginia further right. Capito’s campaign announced the events Monday in a news release.
(OREGON) ‘You’re Not On the List.’
Maybe it’s just a routine scheduling snafu, or confusion about whether a campaign is having a “private event.” Perhaps the gentleman in the tie-dyed overalls is in the wrong, or perhaps the Merkley staffers are being a little too brusque in keeping people out of the event. But it probably doesn’t help Sen. Jeff Merkley, Oregon Democrat, if seniors are getting turned away from his events, and leaving pretty irked that they’ve been asked to leave:
Seniors Turned Away From Oregon Dem’s Event
WATCH “You’re not on the list”
(ALASKA) Pro-Begich group benefits from Senate Majority PAC
A political action committee founded by former aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid provided the sole funding for a super PAC supporting Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in July. Between July 1 and July 30, Put Alaska First reported nearly $670,000 in contributions from the Senate Majority PAC, according to a Federal Election Commission filing. It ended the period with a negative balance of nearly $40,000. Senate Majority PAC has been a major funder of Put Alaska First, which for months has run ads against the presumptive GOP front-runner, Dan Sullivan, and recently turned attention to another Republican in the race, Mead Treadwell.
(IOWA) Pro-Braley Group Trying to Hire Veterans at Iowa State Fair
Monday at the Iowa State Fair is set aside to honor Iowa Veterans, but Braley and his out-of-state political allies instead thought it was a good day to recruit Veterans and their immediate family members to help Braley with his struggling U.S. Senate campaign. Flyers were placed on fairgoers’ vehicles offering jobs that pay $12 to $14 an hour for full or part time work.
(KENTUCKY) Sen. Mitch McConnell Brings Campaign to Western Kentucky
Senator Mitch McConnell continues his campaign through the Bluegrass State. Today, he made an appearance at the grand opening of the Henderson County Republican Party headquarters. The senator is seeking his sixth term in one of the nation’s most watched races against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. Supporting the coal industry is a part McConnell’s platform.
McConnell Holds Town Hall Meeting; Receives Owensboro Health Award
(LOUISIANA) Caddo Parish GOP unites behind Cassidy
Though the big election’s not until November, the Caddo Parish Republican Party hosted what it called a victory party for Bill Cassidy. The Caddo GOP endorsed Cassidy over fellow Republican Rob Maness in the race to try to unseat Democrat Mary Landrieu in the U.S. Senate. Cassidy told the crowd in a downtown Shreveport cafe that the whole world will be watching the Louisiana vote because it could decide which party controls the Senate.
(MICHIGAN) Dems Spend Big to Hold Deep Blue Michigan
Peters, a three-term congressman, has received a $70,000 boost from national Democrats in coordinated expenditures through July. That’s about $55,000 more than the DSCC gave Sen. Debbie Stabenow when she beat incumbent Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham in 2000 and $25,000 more than it gave Stabenow in 2012. The DSCC spent no money in Michigan when retiring Sen. Carl Levin won re-election in 2008. The DSCC isn’t the only national Democratic group spending money in Michigan to defend a once-safe seat. Outside groups have spent more than $5 million in the state thus far, according to the Sunlight Foundation, with the vast majority of that money going to aid Peters. Liberal special interests accounted for $4.2 million in outside spending through July.
(NORTH CAROLINA) THOM TILLIS IS ON THE OFFENSIVE
Why did you decide to run for this seat, and what is the one message you’d like your constituents to hear? I was born into a working class family and learned from a young age that success depends on hard work. I couldn’t afford college when I graduated from high school, so I went to work, eventually becoming a partner at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, and earning my college degree at the age of 36. I’m running for the United States Senate because Kay Hagan has failed the people of North Carolina, giving our nation record spending and debt, and a failed healthcare law that resulted in nearly half a million North Carolinians receiving cancellation letters.
(MONTANA) NEW Steve Daines for Montana Ad: “Montana Jobs”
POLLING BRIEF
McClatchy-Marist Poll – August 4th – 7th, 2014
Just 39 percent approve of how President Obama is handling the economy. That’s down five percent from the McClatchy/Marist April poll.
Meanwhile only 33 percent approve of how President Obama is handling foreign policy, the lowest point of his Presidency on this measurement.
Overall, 43 percent have a favorable impression of Obama.
Only 27 percent of national registered voters feel the country is going in the right direction.
If the election were held today just 38 percent said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat candidate while 43 percent said Republican. This is a fairly significant drop for Democrats from April where 48 percent said they would vote for a Democrat compared to 42 percent for a Republican.
When asked whether their opinion of President Obama makes you more likely to vote for a Republican or Democrats for Congress this November, 42 percent said more likely Republican while 32 percent said Democrat.
ON THE TWITTERS
@anitakumar01 - More people said they plan to vote for a Republican than a Democrat for Congress, 43-38, new @McClatchyDC poll says http://bit.ly/1oET60K
@elliosch - “It was a jarring contrast.” http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/20=
@markknoller - By my count, Pres Obama attending his 400th political fundraiser this evening on Martha’s Vineyard.
@mjbeckel - Pro-Begich #superPAC @PutAlaskaFirst raised $667,500 in July, all of it from fellow Dem super PAC @MajorityPAC http://ow.ly/AcaMx #AKSEN
@jimgeraghty - “You’re not on the list.” http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/ … http://youtu.be/oAzY7NQq7-Y