One week short of a year ago, the DSCC boasted in a memo that, “National Republicans have failed to put any blue or purple state into play,” and would need to sweep red states elections in order to win the majority. My how things have changed.
This morning, Stu Rothenberg moves a few senate races in the GOP’s direction and offers welcome news for those hoping to see Harry Reid banished to the minority. First, in perhaps the biggest news of all, Rothenberg writes, “In something of a surprise, the sixth best Republican opportunity is now Iowa. Barack Obama carried Iowa twice, so Democrats ought to have a narrow but clear advantage to hold retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin’s open seat. But the combination of an interesting Republican nominee, Joni Ernst, and Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley’s early missteps has smart Democrats fretting about the contest.” Time and again, Bruce Braley has made a fool of himself, looked like a jerk, and had to apologize for offending voters. Joni Ernst, on the other hand, has been a breath of fresh air, an independent leader who has cut spending, supported the 2nd amendment, and served her country in combat. She is running a campaign that has put Iowa first, in contrast to Braley who has time and again seemed beholden to the special interest trial lawyers that fund his campaign. Over the weekend, NRSC Chairman Jerry Moran made the case that Iowa was a tossup race, and Mr. Rothenberg seems to agree.
In another positive development for Republicans, Mr. Rothenberg has moved the race in Colorado from leans Democrats to Tossup/Tilts D. This is a great news for our efforts to take the majority. Rothenberg writes, “Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is an excellent candidate, and his energy and sunny disposition will help make him broadly appealing. He had a strong fundraising quarter, ending June with $3.4 million in the bank… …we continue to believe that Udall deserves to have the advantage, both because of fundamentals and recent polling. But Gardner may well be the best GOP challenger in the country, and we are moving the race to Tossup/Tilts Democrat, which better reflects the overall competitiveness of the contest.” Harming Udall is the fact that he was rated as the most liberal of the candidates running in a competitive Senate race this year by FiveThirtyEight and he is afraid of his own record. The embattled Senator abruptly pulled out of a scheduled appearance at his own fundraiser headlined by President Obama, and recently hired a third (or is it 4th?) press secretary to energize the tired and struggling campaign.
Which brings us to North Carolina, which Democrats will push hard and claim momentum, but it’s a rouse. Yes, Kay Hagan makes up for in fundraising what she lacks in legislating, but it’s worth noting that at this point Thom Tillis has more COH than Kay Hagan did in her successful 2008 bid against Elizabeth Dole. There is no amount of money that Hagan can spend that can erase the fact that she has done little (besides writing letters, say hello to Pen Pal Kay) and fails to excite her liberal base, and Thom Tillis is positioned to win in North Carolina.
These developments continue to show that Republicans are on offense in places that Democrats never saw coming. No wonder even loyal Democrats like Chris Matthews are betting on the GOP to take Harry Reid’s majority away.
Seize the day,
Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring
Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H
2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR
(IOWA) Bret Baier Discusses Bruce Braley’s Attempt To Sue His Neighbor Over Chickens
BRET BAIER: “Finally we will see in November if the chickens do in fact come home to roost for Iowa’s Democrat Senate nominee. Congressman Bruce Braley has upset some folks in his neighborhood over a dispute involving chickens next door. Yes chickens. But he says it’s really just political foul play. A member of Braley’s homeowners association tells Fox News Braley implied a lawsuit over the birds after one allegedly walked into his yard.”
Bruce Braley’s Chicken-Hearted Legal Threats
NEW American Crossroads Ad: “Better Choice”
Bruce Braley’s War on Chickens
(ALASAKA) Begich, Red-state Dems in hot seat
“Judicial nominees are certainly an issue for Mark Begich,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring, who pointed to Begich’s votes for Obama’s nominees to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals as another concern they intend to push. “The 9th Circuit has already proven to be a huge hurdle to energy development in Alaska,” he said, noting that Shell suspended plans to drill in the Arctic after an unfavorable ruling by the 9th Circuit. “But Begich has supported every single one of Obama’s nominees to the 9th Circuit, dragging a Court crucial to Alaska energy development further to the left,” Dayspring said. Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said the attacks on judicial votes could be dangerous if Republicans can tie them to local concerns. “You’ve got to make it relevant to the state, which I think they can do with the examples of the 9th Circuit. If you can make it relevant, then yes, it can make a difference,” she said. “It certainly fires up Republicans.”
Put Alaska First received $3.5 million from Reid’s Senate Majority PAC
(MONTANA) Daines out-raised Walsh again in Montana Senate race
Montana’s Republican U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Steve Daines brought in $1.4 million in campaign contributions from April 1 through June 30, according to a statement Monday from the Daines’ campaign. Daines is running against Democratic Sen. John Walsh and Libertarian Roger Roots in a closely watched election. Daines is reporting $1.7 million cash-on-hand to the Federal Election Commission. “Another strong fundraising quarter, combined with having resources available, we need to continue sharing Steve’s positive message of more jobs and less government with Montanans, sending a clear message that our campaign is well positioned as we move toward November,” said Daines spokesman Brock Lowrance.
Walsh will not receive vote
(OREGON) Nation’s Leading Small Business Advocate Endorses Wehby
Jan Meekcoms, Oregon State Director for NFIB, released this statement: “Dr. Wehby’s visits to 100 towns in a hundred days to hear first-hand about the economic plight of small businesses, especially those in our rural communities, speaks volumes about the type of U.S. Senator she would be. In six years, Jeff Merkley has done nothing but rubber-stamp the agenda of his party, failing to distinguish himself on much of anything. We cannot afford another six years of inaction.”
(WEST VIRGINIA) Capito will fight EPA, health-care law, Ryan says
Rep. Paul Ryan told a group of business leaders at a campaign event in Charleston Monday that West Virginia needs to elect Rep. Shelley Moore Capito to the U.S. Senate to help block environmental regulations on existing power plants and to help repeal the Affordable Care Act. Ryan, R-Wis., the 2012 Republican vice-presidential candidate, accused the Obama administration of overstepping its constitutional authority in having the Environmental Protection Agency write the regulations. “The best thing to do is send the administration back to the drawing board,” Ryan said. “You can only do that with both houses of Congress.”
Meet the anti-Elizabeth Warren
Natalie Tennant Calls Elizabeth Warren ‘Just Like West Virginians’
(VIRGINIA) Ed Gillespie Visits Radford
In a campaign stop in Radford today, Ed Gillespie visited the Radford Theatre, had lunch at River City Grill, stopped into Radford Pharmacy, and got cookies at Crumb and Get It. Sheriff Armentrout accompanied Ed on the tour. A reoccurring theme during the visit was the burdensome regulations holding down economic growth in Radford. From the way Obamacare contributes to the migration of patients to big chain pharmacies from small, independent pharmacies to rising utility costs threatening families and making it difficult on small businesses like the Radford Theatre, people were concerned about federal policies and regulations – like those supported by Mark Warner and President Obama – that are stifling economic growth.
O Warner, where art thou?
(GEORGIA) Uh Oh: Democratic Senate Candidate Attended Fundraiser Hosted By Felon
Last week, Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn attended a fundraiser hosted by an ex-convict. No, I’m dead serious. The $2,600 a head Capitol Hill fundraiser for Ms. Nunn was co-hosted by Virtual Murrell; an early leader of the Black Panther Party who served some prison time for extorting businesses when he worked as an aide in city government in the 1990s (via National Review): Murrell was indicted in 1994 by a federal grand jury on charges that he solicited and received over $37,000 in bribes from businesses in San Francisco while serving as an aide to an Oakland city councilman. The indictment found him guilty of violating the Hobbs Act, a federal statute that prohibits elected and appointed officials from using their public positions for personal gain. Murrell pleaded guilty and, in 1995, was sentenced to a year in prison.
Nunn on the run again…fundraising in Tennessee
POLLING BRIEF
Rasmussen Reports – July 11-12, 2014
Favorable views of the national health care law now tie their low for the year, but more voters than ever say the law has had no impact on them.
Just 39% of Likely U.S. Voters share a favorable opinion of the health care law, while 54% view it unfavorably.
This includes 13% with a Very Favorable opinion and 38% with a Very Unfavorable one.
ON THE TWITTERS
@bozchron - Daines out-raised Walsh again in Montana Senate race #bdcnews http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/politics/
@burgessev - DSCC back to the gloom and doom: “This is hard to stomach, but right now, Republicans are winning.”
@elliosch - Chris Matthews: “I Would Bet” Republicans Win The Senate http://youtu.be/uwTkI2kTyuE
@lachlan - NEW FEC FILING: Senate Majority PAC financing for front group Put Alaska First now nearly $4 million http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/dcdev…
@CapitoforWV - Senator Jerry Moran: “Natalie Tennant is simply too liberal for West Virginia” http://bit.ly/1sgagnw #wvsen
@GOPDataTrust - This AM in @nationaljournal – our effort to make data available to all, regardless of size or clout. http://goo.gl/SWJHji #AllHandsOnDeck
@ABC - A lightning bolt strikes the Library of Congress dome, behind the US Capitol – via @ABC News DC: