Good morning folks,
Either Dick Durbin is the greatest whip in recent political history or Democrats on the ballot in 2014 are automatic rubber stamps for the Obama agenda. Either way, it’s bad news politically for Democrats come November.
In the top fifteen battleground states in 2014, President Obama’s approval rating averages in the mid-thirties, yet the Democratic candidates running for Senate in those states have voted with President Obama an average 94% of the time. That’s a problem – especially for those who claim to be “independent voices” – like Mark Warner (97%), Mark Pryor (90%), Mark Udall (99%), Kay Hagan (96%), Mary Landrieu (97%), Mark Begich (97%) and Jeanne Shaheen (99%). Whether voting for ObamaCare despite the objection of voters in their states, or continually voting to raise spending despite promising not to, blind support for the Obama agenda is devastating to these Democrats’ reelection hopes.
Over the last four days, we’ve celebrated “rubber stamp week,” each day highlighting key areas where Democrats running for Senate prioritized their own partisan interests (aka, the Obama agenda) instead of listening to voters in their states, including:
Spending
Taxes
Health Care
Energy
Since January, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has promised that their data, targeting and turnout effort (aka, the Bannock Street Project) will be unprecedented and make up for the unpopularity of their candidates. They promised to hire more than 4,000 workers and spend $60,00,000 to transform a midterm election into a Presidential election (Since that announcement the map has expanded even further, meaning that Democrats will have to spend millions closer to $80,000,000 to keep true to their word).
If those numbers and reports are accurate (current FEC reports suggest they are not), Senate Democrats will have limited (or at least far fewer) resources to spend on their traditional activities – a clear sign that the Democratic National Committee is in shambles and plans on taking a financial pass on 2014 to handle their massive debt problems. Regardless, even IF Democrats find the voters they are looking for, the votes that their candidates have taken suggests that they won’t have a compelling message to turn them out.
As the New York Times reported, “a recent special House election underscored the Democrats’ turnout problem. The contested district, which includes much of St. Petersburg, has 2.4 percent more registered Republicans than Democrats. But Republicans outnumbered Democrats by eight percentage points among those who actually voted, early evidence that Republicans are more energized about November.”
That’s because these Democrats voted with President Obama 94% of the time in spite of his average 35% approval in their states.
Seize the day – enjoy the weekend,
Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring
Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H
2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR
(NORTH CAROLINA) A vote for Hagan is a vote for Harry Reid
Does Harry Reid (D-NV) reflect NC values, priorities, economic interests? This isn’t being said to be facetious, it’s because Dems facing tough reelection are being asked about that very thing…Sadly, NC Sen. Kay Hagan (NC) is all in! “Harry Reid is our leader, and I certainly do support Harry. And I have a huge race going on right now, and I will be victorious. And I will be back next year. And we can talk all about that then.”
(MICHIGAN) Land: Better schooling for skilled trades would boost state manufacturing
U.S. Senate hopeful Terri Lynn Land on Thursday released details of her plan to strengthen manufacturing in Michigan, which includes better education for skilled trades workers and reforming the federal tax code to make growing businesses easier. The Republican former two-time secretary of state toured Clinton Township-based LTC Roll & Engineering, a company that makes parts for General Motors Co., and talked with executives about their biggest concerns. She stressed the continued need for companies like LTC to open and do business in the Great Lakes State. “We need to create all manufacturing,” she said in an interview. “Small, large, in between; all of it is important.”
(LOUISIANA) Landrieu doubled down on her support of the Obama-Harry agenda, pledging her support to Reid
“We all share in success, we all share in the failures; we’re a team. But Harry Reid has tremendous respect of members of our caucus. … I don’t believe that he would be challenged in our party for leadership until he’s ready to step aside.”
(COLORADO) I’m for you, Cory Gardner!
Congressman Cory Gardner’s friends and fellow Republicans were thrilled when he got into the U.S. Senate race, but it’s the reaction of strangers he has found most encouraging. At Denver International Airport, a woman working the Frontier Airlines credit card kiosk came over to Gardner and grabbed his arm. When he told her he already had the card, she said, “No, thank you for getting in.”
(ALASKA) Member of Reid’s liberal leadership team panics when asked about support of Reid
“First up, my job is to get reelected,” Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) said when asked about Reid. Asked again what he would do if he wins reelection in the fall, Begich deadpanned: “I think I answered your question. … The decision by the caucus gets decided after the elections.”
(ARKANSAS) Pryor doubled down on her support of the Obama-Harry agenda, vowing to support to Reid
…“Yeah,” Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor, another Democrat facing a tough race, said when asked if he’d back Reid again. “It’s up to him on whether he wants to do it.”
(GEORGIA) New David Perdue for Senate Ad: Bring
New Jack Kingston Ad: Call Me Maybe
(IOWA) How angry farmers could help the GOP win back the Senate
This was not the coming out party Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) envisioned. After more than a year of running a textbook campaign for U.S. Senate with an emphasis on fundraising and a gradual introduction to voters, Braley was suddenly hamstrung by comments seen as insulting to farmers and Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa). The result of Braley’s gaffe is a sped-up campaign in which he has been thrust into the spotlight sooner than his team expected
(NEW HAMPSHIRE) Jeanne Shaheen Stands With ObamaCare, Against Granite Staters
The vulnerable Senator voted with Obama a staggering 99% of the time, while consistently deceiving voters on the devastating impact that ObamaCare has had on families, workers and businesses in New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen remains stubbornly out of touch with Granite Staters. In reality, a majority of Granite Staters oppose this disastrous law, revealing that Jeanne Shaheen is more in touch with the liberal Obama agenda then she is with what is in the best interests of New Hampshire.
(VIRGINIA) Warner made the case for putting a price on carbon
Democratic Sen. Mark Warner’s opposition to domestic energy development keeps the GOP’s hopes alive for the Virginia Senate seat. Warner’s opponent Ed Gillespie is out with a new ad: “As a Senator, Mark Warner made the case for putting a price on carbon, saying, ‘The most significant thing we can do is send the market signal that either directly through a carbon tax or indirectly through Cap and Trade, we are going to put a price on carbon.’ ” Watch more Republican challengers in energy-producing states make the same appeal.
(OREGON) Merkley lied to voters, can’t work across the aisle
Oregon’s U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) has a lot to answer for to Oregon voters – primarily around Obamacare. Beyond the disastrous roll out problems with Obamacare, which passed four years ago, there are the larger issues for Sen. Merkley of lying to voters and refusing to work across the aisle on health care reform.
(SOUTH DAKOTA) Rounds claims $730,000 quarter
Rounds’ campaign manager Rob Skjonsberg said in an email that Rounds expects to report around $730,000 in total fundraising receipts for January through March. That’s more than Rounds has raised in a three-month period since entering the race. His previous best was July through September of 2013, when Rounds took in $607,000. Skjonsberg said Rounds has no debt and “all bills paid,” an implicit contrast with Annette Bosworth, whose most recent fundraising report showed her with more debt than cash on hand.
(MONTANA) New Steve Daines for Montana Ad: PAYCHECK
(WEST VIRGINIA) Capito speaks at Randolph County Lincoln Day Dinner
U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., told Republicans attending Sunday’s Randolph County Republican Executive Community Lincoln Day Dinner that 2014 is going to be a good year. ”We have people who want to get in and run as Republicans in the state,” Capito said. “We have primaries. We have had domination at the state house by the Democrats since 1928 and this year, 2014, is going to be the year that West Virginia makes history by electing a Republican House of Delegates in Charleston.”
(MINNESOTA) BOOM: 40 Percent of Minnesota Likely Voters Think Al Franken Deserves Reelection
Also in today’s Jolt, the headline from a new poll of Minnesota likely voters commissioned by American Encore and conducted by Magellan Strategies: Only 41 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Sen. Franken, while 45 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Only 44 percent approve of the job he is doing. 54% of respondents disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, and only 38% approve. Only 40% of respondents think Al Franken deserves re-election.
(KENTUCKY) Humane Society official says Bevin should get out of Ky. Senate race after speaking at pro-cockfighting rally
The president of the national Humane Society Legislative Fund said Thursday Louisville businessman Matt Bevin should withdraw from the 2014 U.S. Senate race after discovering web ads that appear to undermine Bevin’s claims that he didn’t know he had spoken at an event for cockfighting. Bevin, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell in the May 20 primary, told the News Journal in Corbin that he was unaware of the purpose of the event on Saturday, March 29. Bevin said he was under the impression that it was a “state’s rights” rally. But the organizers of the event told the News Journal that there was never any “ambiguity” about the focus of the event.
POLLING BRIEF
Rasmussen Reports – March 28-29, 2014
Voters continue to think the Internal Revenue Service is not aggressive enough in going after tax cheats and believe strongly than the agency should focus on tax collection rather than taking on its new task of enforcing Obamacare.
Just 19% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is a good use of IRS resources for the agency to police public compliance with the new national health care law.
Sixty-five percent (65%) believe the IRS should remain focused on collecting taxes, up seven points from 58% in April of last year. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.
ON THE TWITTERS
@morningmoneyben - Jobless rate and number of unemployed mostly unchanged since December so yes this report is weak.
@ijreview - Top Four Things To Know About Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) https://www.americarisingpac.org/top-four-things-know-jeanne-shaheen-d-nh/ …
@RepShelley - #TBT for the start of baseball season: the 2001 Congressional Baseball Game @thehillbaseball. pic.twitter.com/TxUETS8kp4
@EdTibbetts - .@nrsc says @BruceBraley out of touch 4 comparing dining w people he’s represented in court to eating w families whose farms he’s worked at
@billmurphy - Coming to your mailbox soon. Get one at http://yourvoice.nrsc.org/landing/proud-to-be-a-farmer/ … #iasen pic.twitter.com/sCF0oPzrTG
@dgjackson - Proud of MS GOP Chair @joenosef for speaking up. This does not represent the modern day Mississippi Republican Party http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/white-pride-gop-challenger-faces-questions-n71086 …