Good morning folks,
Keeping things in perspective is important in politics and in Washington. Last night, hundreds of reporters, journalists, and pundits analyzed a shutdown – well, let’s be honest, a slowdown – of the Federal Government in real time. NBC News broke in live at 12:01 to discuss it (we’re going to guess the same didn’t happen when the government shut down 12 times while Democrat Tip O’Neill was Speaker). There was a pack countdown to shutdown, then a pack realization that nothing noticeable immediately happened at midnight, then a collective period of overtired people cracking jokes and making long-term political prognostications.
Keep things in perspective. For those making long-term political prognostications, realize that in politics, thirteen months is a lifetime. For all of the analysis of the 1995 & 1996 government shutdown, does anyone remember what happened in the Congressional Elections that year? Yes, we all know President Clinton was reelected. In the House, Republicans lost three seats after winning 54 in 1994, largely a status quo election. In the Senate, Republicans GAINED two seats despite President Clinton being on the top of the ticket.
Keep things in perspective. As Katrina Trinko noted, “Democrats shelved their distaste for violent terms in political discourse yet again Monday night, repeatedly blasting Republicans for putting a ‘gun to our head’ by not sending a clean continuing resolution to the Senate.” Harry Reid. Chuck Schumer. Patty Murray – the very same folks who repeatedly run to the television cameras to complain about Sarah Palin ad nauseam for using crosshairs language.
Keep things in perspective. The position that LINO Harry Reid (and Barack Obama) have taken is that the House of Representatives (who were elected in part because voters believes Democrats overreached with ObamaCare) should do exactly what the Senate wants and only what the Senate wants exactly when the Senate wants it. It’s a ridiculous position that disenfranchises millions of Americans in these congressional districts.
Keep things in perspective. According to NRO, of the 243 polls taken on ObamaCare since its passage, 95% (231 of 243) have shown that the American people oppose ObamaCare, while only 4%(10 of 243) have shown that they support it. (The other 2 polls — 1 percent — have shown a neutral result.) Of those nearly 250 polls, more than two-thirds (171 of 243) have shown double-digit opposition. Jeffrey Andersen asks, “If 95% of all polls across three and a half years, and 100% of polls in the past six months, had shown support for Obamacare — with a supermajority of polls showing double-digit support — do you think the mainstream press might mention that with some regularity?”
Keep things in perspective. Harry Reid refuses to negotiate. President Obama refuses to negotiate. They have chosen to shut down the government to protect ObamaCare, a law with a terrible 38% approval rating. Perhaps one or two of the hundreds of group thinkers might begin to wonder whether shutting down the government in defense of law with a sub-40 approval might be a liability for Democratic incumbents and candidates (especially those in states where President Obama is unpopular – like WV, MT, SD, LA, AR, AK, NC, MI, IA, NH, GA, and KY).
Keep things in perspective. As Politico reports, “Not a single Democrat crossed party lines Monday in a Senate vote to reject House-passed provisions that would have, among other things, delayed Obamacare for one year. The cohesion stands in contrast to other divisive issues such as gun control and spending cuts that have led red-state Democrats to split with their colleagues.” ObamaCare reaches 60% unfavorability in some of these states. Maybe… just maybe Democrats in these states who’ve staked their Senate seat on ObamaCare will end up losing their bet. Take Mark Pryor, for example. When asked about the impact that the shutdown or Obamacare would have on his reelection race, Pryor replied: “I don’t know yet.”
Keep things in perspective.
Seize the day,
Brad Dayspring
@BDayspring
Brook Hougesen
@Brook_H
2014 BATTLEGROUND SONAR
(2014) Obamacare Has Arrived And The People Are Afraid
From the NRSC, here is a very powerful message about how much good citizens are worried about the effects of Obamacare on their very real lives. And if you want to understand how bad the law really is, all you have to do is realize that the lawmakers have exempted themselves from its provisions.
(2014) Shutdown Reid: Harry Reid refuses to compromise: says no conference committee
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said late Monday night that he will not agree with House Republicans on sending the budget situation to a conference committee. “We like to resolve issues, but we will not go to conference with a gun to our heads,” Reid said. Reid added: ”We will not go to conference until we get a clean” bill.
Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Begich of Alaska have consistently voted with their party to reject repeated GOP attempts to chip away at the health care law — reflecting a remarkable level of Democratic unity on the issue.
(NORTH CAROLINA) National GOP tests attack lines against Kay Hagan
National Republicans are outlining their attack points against U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan as it seeks to oust her in 2014, labeling her as ineffective and out of step with North Carolina voters. In a political memo released Monday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is pushing their calculation of Hagan’s performance, saying she’s “the most ineffective senator in North Carolina’s history” by showing the number of bills she sponsored or cosponsored that became law. The organization did not explain how they calculated the numbers, which don’t take into account length of service, for one.
(WEST VIRGINIA) Tennant may have miscalculated
Natalie Tennant’s decision to run for the U.S. Senate may answer an interesting question about West Virginia voters: Are Democrats here upset with President Barack Obama solely because of his anti-coal agenda, or is it the whole package we don’t like? If it’s the latter, as I suspect is the case, Tennant is in for an old-fashioned clock cleaning in November 2014.
(ARKANSAS) Conservative organization ties vulnerable Democratic senator to Obama
Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) is trying to have his cake and eat it too as he runs for re-election. He’s been talking up his independence and working to distance himself from President Barack Obama. At the same time, however, he’s defending his vote for the most unpopular parts of the administration’s agenda — including ObamaCare, which is a big negative for the Arkansas senator. Of course, Pryor’s support for President Obama’s agenda doesn’t end with ObamaCare, though that may be the most prominent issue in the state as individuals looking to purchase health insurance on the federally-run exchange are looking at skyrocketing costs. He also backed the 2009 stimulus bill, burdensome financial regulations in Dodd-Frank, and wants to tax purchases from online retailers. And that’s only the top of the iceberg.
(LOUISIANA) CASSIDY: No congressional Obamacare exemptions
As Obamacare officially begins, Americans are becoming increasingly aware of its negative impacts on our lives. Ironically, the people who pushed this law the hardest have now exempted members of Congress and their staff from Obamacare. This is wrong. That’s why I am working alongside Sen. David Vitter (R-la.) and House colleagues to include an amendment to any government spending package (The James Madison Congressional Accountability Act) which would ensure that members of Congress don’t get taxpayer funded subsidies to pay for their health care. Louisiana families are not getting special breaks from this law and neither should Congress.
(MINNESOTA) Senators say they oppose medical device tax, vote against repeal
Minnesota Senate Democrats Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar, along with others from their party, will answer to their constituents and leaders in the medical device industry for voting against the repeal of ObamaCare’s medical device tax in the continuing resolution battle with the House. The Senate voted 54-46 along party lines to reject a funding bill approved by the House Sunday because it would delay ObamaCare’s individual mandate for one year and repeal the medical device tax.
(ILLINOIS) Truax points out Dick Durbin’s hypocrisy on debt ceiling
Over the weekend, U.S. Senator Dick Durbin urged Republicans not to be “irresponsible” by voting against lifting the debt ceiling once again, but when George W. Bush was president, Durbin opposed increasing America’s debt three times. Monday, Republican U.S. Senate candidate, West Point grad and Army vet Doug Truax, said Durbin was providing another example of hypocrisy and blatant political partisanship. “We need leaders in Washington who stand on principle to help the American people, not partisan insiders who feign sincerity in order to score cheap political points,” Truax said.
(WEST VIRGINIA) Capito calling for “mature voices” in spending bill talks
A partial government shutdown is underway with Congress’ failure to pass a crucial spending bill before the midnight deadline. Second District Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) said she does not think a shutdown should have happened. “We need to have mature voices in the room that are willing to give a little to get a little,” she said on Monday’s MetroNews “Talkline.”
(NEW JERSEY) Cory Booker’s lead shrinks new poll says
Cory Booker is seeing his lead in the special U.S. Senate race in New Jersey tighten slightly, and a plurality of voters believe his national profile is more important to the Newark mayor than serving the state, according to a new Monmouth University poll. Booker, a nationally prominent Democrat, still is maintaining a double-digit lead, the poll results show, but Republican Steve Lonegan has closed the gap a little since the last Monmouth University survey in August.
(MASSACHUSETTS) GOP files ethics complaint against Warren aide
The Massachusetts Republican Party has filed an ethics complaint against Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s chief of staff Mindy Myers. In a letter to the U.S. Senate Ethics committee, the GOP points to an email from Myers sent from Warren’s campaign account. In the email, Myers includes a campaign fundraising appeal from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat. In her appeal Shaheen points to speculation that former Republican Sen. Scott Brown may be considering challenging her.
POLLING BRIEF
CNN/ORC Poll – September 27-29
17% say their family will be better off under ObamaCare, 40% say worse off
37% Say ObamaCare will help no one in U.S.
45% say ObamaCare’s new health insurance system will eventually work, 52% say a disaster waiting to happen.
ON THE TWITTERS
@DonovanSlack - um, not so much. wont let me sign in MT @MoElleithee: it’s only 30 minutes old & already http://healthcare.gov works better than GOP Reps
@PhillyInquirer - Cory Booker’s lead over Steve Lonegan slips in new poll http://bit.ly/18KaAOp AccessCode: Z26D
@thehill - Reid rejects House Republicans’ offer to appoint funding conferees http://j.mp/19So3CG by @alexanderbolton
@StewSays - CNN poll: Less than one in five Americans say their families will be better off under #Obamacare http://yhoo.it/1fZtGFA
@marcuscarey - Obamacare Has Arrived And The People Are Afraid http://bit.ly/18JmTw9
@peterbakernyt - How America’s Jewish population is changing, according to comprehensive Pew study http://bit.ly/16IN5U6
NATIONAL RADAR
(CNN) CNN Poll: Will Obamacare help you?
Less than one in five Americans say their families will be better off under the new health care law, according to a new poll. But a CNN/ORC International survey released Tuesday morning also indicates a majority say the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, will help some people, with 37% saying the law, which is gradually starting to kick in, won’t help anyone. According to the poll, four in 10 say the new law will make their families worse off, while 41% believe it will have no effect.
Poll finds support for ObamaCare mandate delay
(BLOOMBERG) Obamacare Markets Debut as Early Hurdles May Slow Signups
The three-year effort to open the Obamacare health-insurance exchanges culminates today, beset by logistical delays and efforts by Republicans to shut down the U.S. government in protest. Even states that have cooperated with the rollout, designed to enroll the uninsured in health plans, are downplaying the debut of the marketplaces to avoid having the websites and call centers overwhelmed. “Our message is, ‘You are welcome to come on Oct. 1 if that’s what you want to do, but you might just want to wait,’” Jon Hager, the executive director of Nevada’s insurance exchange, said in a telephone interview.
(WALL STREET JOURNAL) Gottlieb and Astrue: ObamaCare’s Technology Mess
At least a half dozen state exchanges won’t offer full online enrollment thanks to unresolved software problems. President Obama is bracing Americans for inevitable problems as the Affordable Care Act rolls out this week, but what he calls “glitches” are hardly routine. Information technology is ObamaCare’s Achilles’ heel. The faulty IT will expose Americans to lost data, attempts to enroll online that fail and the risk of fraud.
(ROLL CALL) Senate Kills More House Obamacare Amendments in CR Ping Pong
Senate Democrats are sticking to their guns, turning back another proposed House amendment to their stopgap spending measure. Less than an hour after the House voted and fewer than three hours from a probably midnight government shutdown, the message from the Democrats remained the same: Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, must allow a “clean” continuing resolution to receive a vote on the House floor. The Senate tabled, and thus killed, the latest offering, 54-46, on a largely party-line vote.
(BREITBART) Republicans Declare Victory As CNN And NBC #Dropthedocs
Today Republicans won a major victory against the mainstream media. When NBC and CNN announced their plans for pro-Hillary productions, the RNC voted to ban them from presidential primary debates. Conservatives united in calling out their blatant liberal bias and support for Hillary Clinton’s all-but-announced candidacy. Even liberal commentators’ eyes were opened to the network’s partisan actions. After all that pressure and bad publicity, both CNN and NBC announced they were canceling their productions today.
