Credit: Todd Warshaw/NASCAR via Getty Images
One More MWR Win For Truex?
Well, this is it. If you’re fighting for you league championship this weekend, good luck, and I hope ifantasyrace helped you along the way. Homestead is the race where you can throw the “Hail Mary” roster out there or play it conservatively. A lot of teams use this race to experiment with setups and engines, and I’d definitely recommend avoiding the latter. This race can also get screwy because you don’t know which drivers have already packed it in for the season and aren’t even trying any more. Pretty much all you can do is pick the fastest cars and hope for the best. Here’s the practice results from Saturday: Practice #2 — Happy Hour as well as our in-depth notes from each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Matt “Too Little Too Late” Kenseth won the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Ford EcoBoost 400:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
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11. Greg Biffle – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Practice speeds mean nothing when it comes to the #16 team. They started dead last at Phoenix last weekend and still finished 13th–a mark they have ended up better or at in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races. They’re not wowing anybody by any means but they’re consistent. It’d just be nice if the #16 was able to challenge for top 5s more often (Biffle only has one top 5 finish in the last 20 Sprint Cup races). The Roush-Fenway cars are all in the same boat in my eyes. Personally I would rank them 16-99-17. Biffle gets a slight nod over Edwards because of the high starting position, and I don’t trust Stenhouse enough just yet–although his 9th-place qualifying effort was nice this week. Going back to Biffle, he has finished 14th or better in three of the last four events at Homestead and should be able to make it four in the last five come Sunday. This #16 team could end up challenging for a top 10 when the checkered flag waves but going into the race I have them pegged as just a top 15 car. One real positive note for The Biff is that he ranked 2nd in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, despite the fact that his crew chief didn’t seem to like his long run speed in Practice #2.
12. Ryan Newman – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Two of the six experts on FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com this week initially had Ryan Newman as the “Avoid” pick, and I’m not really sure why. Sure, he’s not the first guy you think of when we stop at an intermediate track, but he’s consistent and when you take out his Martinsville disappointment, he’s averaging 35.8 points per race over the last four. I’ll take that any day of the week out of a guy like Newman. On top of that, “The Rocketman” has finished 12th or better in each of the last three Homestead races and he qualified 15th on Friday for this year’s finale. The chassis that this #39 team brought to the track this weekend is no. 39-733, which has seen a whole bunch of action in 2013. Most recently, Newman finished 10th with it at Chicago, and this is the same car he won with at Indianapolis. Six of the nine Chase races this year have ended with Ryan Newman finishing inside the top 10 and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him add a seventh here at Homestead on Sunday. In terms of practice, Newman was his normal middle-of-the-road self on Saturday, and he ended up 19th on the speed chart in that final session.
13. Carl Edwards – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Cousin Carl actually had somewhat of an off year here at Homestead last season as he finished 12th with a driver rating of 105.9. In the two years prior, Edwards finished 1st and 2nd, posting a perfect driver rating of 150.0 in his win and a 141.3 with his 2nd. Before 2012, Carl was on a 7-race streak of finishes of 8th or better at Homestead. Obviously that came to an end last year but it should still be noted that he’s never finished worse than 14th at this track and has an insane career average finish of 6th here. Practice this weekend was normal for the #99 team: not very telling. He was 14th-quick in Practice #2 before posting the 11th-best lap in Happy Hour. Of course Edwards never made it to the ten-lap average charts so it’s hard to say what kind of car he has on the long runs. Hell, Carl only ran 23 laps in that final practice session. History alone says Edwards will be a good pick on Sunday but how much are you willing to rely on that? He starts mid-pack in 18th. It’s worth noting that this team hasn’t had a top 10 since Charlotte a month ago, although Carl’s near win at Phoenix last weekend has to be a positive in the minds of fantasy owners.
14. Kyle Busch – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I wasn’t even going to have Kyle Busch ranked this week but he went out in qualifying and put down the 5th-best ten-lap average and that is something that can’t be ignored. This #18 has fallen apart, in my opinion, and I think Rowdy is just done with this 2013 season. Even their 7th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend was due more to luck than how good the car was. Here at Homestead, Bush owns a career average finish of 23.1, but that is really brought down by his terrible runs that were due to wrecks or mechanical issues. He finished 4th here last season, and although I don’t see anything like that happening on Sunday, you can never count Kyle Busch out. In eight career starts here he has just two top 10 finishes, though. Because his teammate, Matt Kenseth, is so fast this weekend, you have to think that the #18 would have some of that speed, too, but Busch was in the teens in both practice sessions on Saturday. I guess it’s better to have long run speed, though, which Rowdy looks to have. In most leagues I wouldn’t take Kyle Busch this week simply because you probably have better options (Johnson, Kenseth, Harvick). But in some situations it may be worth a roll of the dice and starting the #18.
15. Paul Menard – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I decided to avoid putting a “big name” driver in this spot and instead chose Paul Menard for those of you looking for a deeper pick this last week. This #27 team has quietly been racking up points as of late, finishing 15th and 16th at Texas and Phoenix after their 7th-place run at Kansas and 4th-place effort at Talladega. I don’t think it’s crazy to expect another top 15 finish out of Menard here at Homestead on Sunday, and if everything goes right he may be able to challenge for a top 10. He ran 11th here in 2012, which is a career-best at this track, after finishing 16th in the 2011 finale. On Saturday, Menard regressed a little bit between the two practice sessions and ended up 12th on the speed chart in Happy Hour after posting the 6th-best lap in Practice #2. In terms of ten-lap average, the #27 Chevrolet was 11th in that final session. Paul is a pretty good intermediate track driver and has shown this season that he can usually be relied upon for a solid teens finish when the series stops at venues like Homestead.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Denny Hamlin showed last week at Phoenix just how untrustworthy he is and is once again on my avoid list. He has been fast all weekend long but I don’t care. He’ll start 5th on Sunday and had the 6th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour but I still wouldn’t touch the #11 with a ten foot pole. If you’re going with the Hail Mary approach this weekend, though, Hamlin might be your guy. Clint Bowyer sort of got overlooked when I was making my rankings but I’m still not expecting much out of him. He’s finished 6th and 2nd in the last two races here, but honestly it would surprise me if he even broke the top 10 on Sunday. He had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour but starts 25th. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. had a solid qualifying effort on Friday, winding up 9th, but never really impressed me during the practice sessions Saturday. A top 15 is within reach for this #17 team but not much more I’m afraid. Mark Martin was consistently fast during the practices Saturday and had a couple of decent runs here lately. In this event last season he finished 16th and could be good for another teens finish if he can stay out of trouble. He starts 22nd. Kyle Larson showed pretty good speed in both practice sessions Saturday (15th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour) but there are concerns in terms of his equipment and how long it will last. On a positive note, he finished 23rd at Texas earlier this month and could have a similar run here at Homestead if all goes well. I will say this: he will be fun to watch next year when he’s in decently reliable equipment. Elliott Sadler qualified 10th but I just see this team struggling to stay anywhere near there on Sunday. He might be able to squeak out a top 20, but even that’s pushing it, in my opinion. Trevor Bayne is usually good for a top 20 finish when he runs the Cup race, but if you’re going strictly off of practice speeds, the #21 is a mid-20s car. With wrecks and mechanical issues, though, Trevor might be able to sneak up into the teens. Finally, this is Juan Montoya‘s last race in the Sprint Cup series, and although he was 10th on the speed chart in Happy Hour, I just don’t see the #42 having long run speed this weekend. Also, his last top 20 finish at this track came back in 2008, and not to mention he’ll start 27th on Sunday.
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