Welcome to November. This last month of the hurricane season is typically very quiet in terms of overall development and of potential impact to the U.S. Water temps are on their way down and cool to cold dry air is settling in across the Lower 48 on a more frequent basis now. The clock is indeed winding down on a very unimpressive season for the Atlantic Basin. I will have a full write up on the 2013 season and the significance of its lack-luster performance within the next couple of weeks. I’m still looking over some things that may help to explain what went wrong with the forecasts. At least in this situation, the busted forecasts meant no hurricane impacts along the U.S. coast this season. Too bad coastal residents don’t get even a partial refund or at least a credit on their insurance premiums when a season is as quiet as this one. That would be nice, right?
Looking out across the Atlantic today and for the week ahead, there is nothing that stands out as being a threat for development. There is a poorly organized area of low pressure tangled up among portions of the Greater Antilles. This low will continue to produce periods of heavy rain for the region but none of the global models develop this feature so the threat of it becoming a tropical cyclone is very low.
Beyond that, the rest of the tropics are nice and quiet as they should be this time of year. It is interesting to note that water temps across most of the tropical Atlantic are still running above the long term average. With no hurricane activity to stir the surface up and mix the ocean, this is not surprising. We’ll have to see how the off-season goes and how much cooling there is over the next six to eight months. Perhaps we begin the 2014 hurricane season with considerably warmer sea surface temps than we normally would. Time will tell, just something to monitor in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, out in the west Pacific, another powerful typhoon is taking shape that will likely plow right through the Philippines later this week. This marks the 31st named storm in the west Pacific season, something not seen out that way in almost 20 years. So while the Atlantic really never got going, the west Pacific is seeing a typhoon burst that could keep going on in to the heart of November. Crazy weather, that is for sure.
So with the hurricane season nearing its end, I thought it would be exciting to announce something new that I will be doing this off-season. It’s something that I have contemplated over the last several years but never really pulled the trigger on- until now. What is it? Winter storms! That’s right, I am going to cover major winter storms this year the same way I cover hurricane landfalls. With the technology that I have at my disposal, there’s no sense in letting it just collect dust from December through May. Plus, we have our app (for iOS and Android devices) which is a great way to post video blogs and live weather data from a fierce winter storm. So why not?
The plan is to post blog updates here on a weekly basis, each Monday before Noon ET, about any potential upcoming East Coast winter storm events. I would love to be able to travel to the Midwest for some of that action but for this season, I need to focus on East Coast storms to see if this will even be a viable option for the future.
We all know that it is just a matter of time before the cold meets the warm and we get a big snow, wind and coastal flooding event for some portion of the East Coast. Like hurricanes, these storms can cause massive disruption and have a substantial impact on the beaches. Often called Nor’easters, these “winter hurricanes” produce storm surge, large waves and beach erosion. Obviously, the bigger interest from most people is the snow. It seems the more snow that is predicted, the more people get fired up about the event.
One thing that I can bring to the table is weather data. With the exception of NWS reports and a few home weather station readings, there is very little wind and pressure data purposefully collected during a Nor’easter. I want to change that and provide live wind and pressure data, along with a cam image from the site, during future winter storms. The data will feed right in to our app, just like during a hurricane event. Like I said, might as well use the hurricane tech to work in winter storms.
I can also place our unmanned cams, our Surge Cams for hurricanes, in strategic locations to show the snowfall accumulating from well before it begins to fall until the storm passes (our cams run on average of 40 hours now). Plus, along the coast, I can post a cam or two for monitoring storm surge and beach erosion. This was especially helpful during my excursion to the NC Outer Banks during what became known as Nor’Ida – a powerful Nor’easter that entrained the remnants of hurricane Ida after it passed through the Southeast and in to the Atlantic in November of 2009. I believe the unmanned cams will be very interesting to watch during a major winter storm.
As far as driving around and streaming live from the Tahoe? Not gonna happen. I would rather hole myself up at a hotel somewhere in the highest snow bulls eye area and stream live from our new “everywhere” cam as I walk around out in the storm. I think it would be far more interesting to travel on foot for a few miles around the hotel to show viewers the wind and snow as the storm rages in.
As the buzzards circle the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I am already thinking snow. I know several of our followers have encouraged me to do this for quite some time. It looks like that time has come and I believe the coverage I could provide, along with the help from big time snow lover Jesse Bass, would be exceptional. There’s only one way to find out. We’ll be ready!
Check this blog each Monday for a new update from here on out. If something is brewing, either in the tropics or a winter storm is in the works, then the blogs will be more frequent. Soon enough, it will be time to head out for the season’s first big East Coast winter storm. Never thought I would say it, but I can’t wait!
M. Sudduth 11:50 AM ET November 4
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