Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
80 – 68 Lihue, Kauai
83 – 65 Honolulu, Oahu
81 – 70 Molokai AP
83 – 70 Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 72 Kailua Kona
80 – 67 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
1.10 Wailua, Kauai
0.34 Luluku, Oahu
0.08 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.19 Ulupalakua, Maui
0.35 Keaumo, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:
16 Port Allen, Kauai
25 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
13 Molokai
16 Lanai
16 Kahoolawe
20 Maalaea Bay, Maui
20 Kealakomo, Big Island
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Troughs of low pressure in our area…are keeping our local weather at least somewhat unsettled for the time being at least
An upper level low pressure system…will linger well west of Kauai
A mix of clear and cloudy skies
Showers here and there…mostly offshore – Looping radar image
Winter Weather Advisory…Big Island Summits / snow and ice starting Wednesday 6pm
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our winds will remain generally quite light…through the rest of the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far northeast, north, and now another much weaker high pressure cell almost right over our islands. The winds remain on the light side, prompting daytime onshore sea breezes…along with offshore flowing land breezes during the nights. As we get deeper into the week, our winds will shift to the southeast, potentially bringing back volcanic haze to the smaller islands.
A trough of low pressure west of the state...will bring back wet weather later this week. For the time being, we’ll find generally pretty good weather, although with clouds and showers increasing during the afternoon hours. These showers will occur most often over the interior sections, leaving the surrounding beaches less cloudy and showery for the most part. The next bout of more widespread wet weather will likely arrive Thursday into the weekend.
Marine environment details: A weak surface trough of low pressure over the nearby waters will continue to impact the local area through midweek. A weak ridge of high pressure will build west over the area later in the week, as the trough lifts north and away from the waters. This pattern will result in a weak pressure gradient over the state, and a continuation of light winds each day over much of the region.
A new west-northwest swell, associated with a recent storm over the northwest Pacific, is forecast to fill in Tuesday night, peak Wednesday, then slowly lower through the remainder of the week. Surf heights will remain well below advisory levels from this source…along north and west facing shores.
A small lingering easterly swell, that was generated last week due to the strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands, will continue to steadily lower through the week. Surf along eastern facing shores will respond and likely drop to near flat levels by the weekend.
Surf along the southern shores rose yesterday at select spots, due to a recent Southern Hemisphere source. This will likely hold today, before lowering through the remainder of the week. Guidance supports a smaller southwest swell filling in Sunday night through next Tuesday.
For the long range, despite the differences between model guidance, all depict a sizable west-northwest swell approaching the state by the end of next week.
Generally ok weather…with localized upcountry afternoon showers
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Extreme downpours could increase fivefold across parts of the U.S. – At century’s end, the number of summertime storms that produce extreme downpours could increase by more than 400 percent across parts of the United States — including sections of the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, and the Southwest — according to a new study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, also finds that the intensity of individual extreme rainfall events could increase by as much as 70 percent in some areas. That would mean that a storm that drops about 2 inches of rainfall today would be likely to drop nearly 3.5 inches in the future.
“These are huge increases,” said NCAR scientist Andreas Prein, lead author of the study. “Imagine the most intense thunderstorm you typically experience in a single season. Our study finds that, in the future, parts of the U.S. could expect to experience five of those storms in a season, each with an intensity as strong or stronger than current storms.”
“Extreme precipitation events affect our infrastructure through flooding, landslides and debris flows,” said Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF’s Directorate for Geosciences, which funded the research. “We need to better understand how these extreme events are changing. By supporting this research, NSF is working to foster a safer environment for all of us.”
A year of supercomputing time
An increase in extreme precipitation is one of the expected impacts of climate change because scientists know that as the atmosphere warms, it can hold more water, and a wetter atmosphere can produce heavier rain. In fact, an increase in precipitation intensity has already been measured across all regions of the U.S. However, climate models are generally not able to simulate these downpours because of their coarse resolution, which has made it difficult for researchers to assess future changes in storm frequency and intensity.
For the new study, the research team used a new dataset that was created when NCAR scientists and study co-authors Roy Rasmussen, Changhai Liu, and Kyoko Ikeda ran the NCAR-based Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a resolution of 4 kilometers, fine enough to simulate individual storms. The simulations, which required a year to run, were performed on the Yellowstone system at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.
Prein and his co-authors used the new dataset to investigate changes in downpours over North America in detail. The researchers looked at how storms that occurred between 2000 and 2013 might change if they occurred instead in a climate that was 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer — the temperature increase expected by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
Prein cautioned that this approach is a simplified way of comparing present and future climate. It doesn’t reflect possible changes to storm tracks or weather systems associated with climate change. The advantage, however, is that scientists can more easily isolate the impact of additional heat and associated moisture on future storm formation.
“The ability to simulate realistic downpours is a quantum leap in climate modeling. This enables us to investigate changes in hourly rainfall extremes that are related to flash flooding for the very first time,” Prein said. “To do this took a tremendous amount of computational resources.”
Impacts vary across the U.S.
The study found that the number of summertime storms producing extreme precipitation is expected to increase across the entire country, though the amount varies by region. The Midwest, for example, sees an increase of zero to about 100 percent across swaths of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa. But the Gulf Coast, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Mexico all see increases ranging from 200 percent to more than 400 percent.
The study also found that the intensity of extreme rainfall events in the summer could increase across nearly the entire country, with some regions, including the Northeast and parts of the Southwest, seeing particularly large increases, in some cases of more than 70 percent.
A surprising result of the study is that extreme downpours will also increase in areas that are getting drier on average, especially in the Midwest. This is because moderate rainfall events that are the major source of moisture in this region during the summertime are expected to decrease significantly while extreme events increase in frequency and intensity. This shift from moderate to intense rainfall increases the potential for flash floods and mudslides, and can have negative impacts on agriculture.
The study also investigated how the environmental conditions that produce the most severe downpours might change in the future. In today’s climate, the storms with the highest hourly rainfall intensities form when the daily average temperature is somewhere between 68 to 77 degrees F and with high atmospheric moisture. When the temperature gets too hot, rainstorms become weaker or don’t occur at all because the increase in atmospheric moisture cannot keep pace with the increase in temperature. This relative drying of the air robs the atmosphere of one of the essential ingredients needed to form a storm.
“Understanding how climate change may affect the environments that produce the most intense storms is essential because of the significant impacts that these kinds of storms have on society,” Prein said.