Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:
85 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74 Molokai AP
86 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 78 Kona AP
82 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Sunday afternoon:
3.86 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.43 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
2.18 Molokai
0.03 Lanai
0.02 Kahoolawe
3.79 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.86 Hilo AP, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Sunday afternoon:
27 Port Allen, Kauai
36 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25 Molokai
25 Lanai
27 Kahoolawe
35 Maalaea Bay, Maui
27 South Point, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester moving in our general direction
Tropical Storm Madeline east-southeast of Hawaii
Close-up view of Tropical Storm Madeline
Looping mode of TS Madeline
Partly to mostly cloudy
Showers generally windward…although not exclusively – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our trade winds will prevail through about Tuesday…with likely changes by mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1029 millibar high pressure system far north of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue into the first few days of the new week, with some probable changes in our local wind conditions thereafter for several days. This will depend upon how close tropical storm Madeline comes to the state…and the intensity of her winds then too. We may be looking at stronger winds for several days, as this storm potentially moves close to the state.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
We’ll find off and on showery conditions today, at least locally, then somewhat drier Monday and most of Tuesday…with potential inclement weather arriving by the middle of the new week. This generally alright weather will prevail through the first couple days of the new week ahead. Satellite imagery suggests that showers will fall at times today, with a partial break in the showers Monday and part of Tuesday. Thereafter, we’ll likely be in store for a more pronounced change, with possible deep tropical moisture arriving early Wednesday through Thursday or so. This would be in association with tropical storm Madeline moving by just south of our islands.
TS Madeline may move by…just to the south of the Big Island. Although, the models show this tropical storm still to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands through most of Wednesday, we’ll need to closely monitor this situation for any changes. Tropical Storm Madeline continues heading in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands. The way it looks now, we could see a change in our local weather beginning later Wednesday. There’s a chance for tropical storm conditions to impact parts of the state, which includes wind speeds of 39+ mph…with flooding rainfall locally. Looking even further ahead, we may see whatever is left of Hurricane Lester getting close to the islands, or moving by a bit to our north later in the Labor Day holiday weekend. There will be ongoing changes and adjustments to the outlooks on these two approaching systems, as we move forward…stay tuned.
Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island, due to locally breezy trade winds accelerating around the island terrain. These conditions are expected to continue for the next few days. Depending on the eventual track of Tropical Storm Madeline, a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for portions of the marine area within the next day or so.
No significant swells are expected through Monday, though surf along east facing shores will be slightly elevated due to the stronger trades. Winds and seas, as well as surf along east facing shores, will likely increase from east to west late Tuesday into the night, with the approach of TS Madeline. The east swell may peak Wednesday, and heights will depend on the eventual track and intensity of the system. We may also start to see a swell from Hurricane Lester as early as Wednesday or Thursday…with heights building into next weekend.
Friday Evening Film: I went to see one called Jason Bourne, starring Matt Damon, Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander, Vincent Cassel, Julia Stiles, and Riz Ahmed...among many others. The synopsis: It’s been 10 years since Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) walked away from the agency that trained him to become a deadly weapon. Hoping to draw him out of the shadows, CIA director Robert Dewey assigns hacker and counterinsurgency expert Heather Lee to find him. Lee suspects that former operative Nicky Parsons is also looking for him. As she begins tracking the duo, Bourne finds himself back in action battling a sinister network that utilizes terror and technology to maintain unchecked power.
This was a very good film, which I thoroughly enjoyed…and was surprised that the critics didn’t give it a higher grade. The long and short of it was that I was entertained, although there were a few moments that were a bit too slow. Far and away, Matt Damon carried the film, although I was quite taken by both Tommy Lee Jones and Alicia Vikander as well. You know, now that I’m going over the film in my memory, I wasn’t all that taken by the outlandish car chase scenes either. So, what kind of grade am I going to give it? I’m thinking a strong B+ probably gets at it pretty well, all things considered. Here’s the trailer, and oh by the way…this is a full-on action film!
Windward showers…extending over into the leeward sections locally
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 580 miles east of Bermuda…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Tropical Depression 08L is now active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 355 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Tropical Depression 09L is now active, and about to move into the Gulf of Mexico, located about 60 miles south of Key West, Florida…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
1.) A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Monday night or Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is producing disorganized shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the low moves slowly southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 1020 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model
1.) A broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward or west- northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
Tropical Storm 14E (Madeline) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 885 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
1.) A weak low approximately 500 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to produce periods disorganized convection. Development, if any, of the area would be slow to occur as this area slowly drifts northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:
Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 356 NM south of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image , and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice – This year’s melt season in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas started with a bang, with a record low maximum extent in March and relatively rapid ice loss through May. The melt slowed down in June, however, making it highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record.
Youtube video: Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016
“Even when it’s likely that we won’t have a record low, the sea ice is not showing any kind of recovery. It’s still in a continued decline over the long term,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’s just not going to be as extreme as other years because the weather conditions in the Arctic were not as extreme as in other years.”
“A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”
This year’s sea ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia opened up early, in April, exposing the surface ocean waters to the energy from the sun weeks ahead of schedule. By May 31, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover was comparable to end-of-June average levels. But the Arctic weather changed in June and slowed the sea ice loss. A persistent area of low atmospheric pressure, accompanied by cloudiness, winds that dispersed ice and lower-than-average temperatures, didn’t favor melt.
The rate of ice loss picked up again during the first two weeks of August, and is now greater than average for this time of the year. A strong cyclone is moving through the Arctic, similar to one that occurred in early August 2012. Four years ago, the storm caused an accelerated loss of ice during a period when the decline in sea ice is normally slowing because the sun is setting in the Arctic. However, the current storm doesn’t appear to be as strong as the 2012 cyclone and ice conditions are less vulnerable than four years ago, Meier said.
“This year is a great case study in showing how important the weather conditions are during the summer, especially in June and July, when you have 24 hours of sunlight and the sun is high in the sky in the Arctic,” Meier said. “If you get the right atmospheric conditions during those two months, they can really accelerate the ice loss. If you don’t, they can slow down any melting momentum you had. So our predictive ability in May of the September minimum is limited, because the sea ice cover is so sensitive to the early-to-mid-summer atmospheric conditions, and you can’t foresee summer weather.”
As scientists are keeping an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover, NASA is also preparing for a new method to measure the thickness of sea ice – a difficult but key characteristic to track from orbit.
“We have a good handle on the sea ice area change,” said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. “We have very limited knowledge how thick it is.”
Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.
The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.
In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.
To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.
“If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness,” he said. “It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”