Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:
85 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 76 Molokai AP
88 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 76 Kona AP
84 – 74 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday:
1.64 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.11 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.24 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
1.58 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.91 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday:
22 Poipu, Kauai
38 Kauokala, Oahu
26 Molokai
33 Lanai
33 Kahoolawe
31 Maalaea Bay, Maui
37 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Storm Darby continues to approach Hawaii…Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are active in the Eastern Pacific Ocean!
Tropical Storm Darby, on the current forecast track, the center of Darby is forecast to pass over or near the Big Island on Saturday…and Maui on Saturday night.
Tropical Storm Darby spinning in the direction of Hawaii, we need to take this as a serious threat…with stormy conditions this weekend
Tropical Storm Darby close-up view
Showers locally – Looping radar image
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES –
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai.
Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island. [A Tropical Storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.]
Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for Maui County and the Big Island.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island.
Tropical Storm Watch for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui. [A Tropical Storm watch is in effect for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe]
Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected over the Big Island starting late tonight, and are possible over portions of Maui County on Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Darby are expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines today and Saturday.
RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches with locally higher amounts…could cause life-threatening flash floods as well as landslides.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Gusty trades…with tropical storm force winds taking over during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1037 millibar high pressure system in the area far north-northwest of Hawaii. Gusty trade winds will blow today. We’ll see extensive tropical air arriving…as tropical storm Darby moves very close to the Hawaiian Islands. Our winds will increase markedly, with possible tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) buffeting the islands locally…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Major changes on the horizon…as tropical storm Darby moves into closer range. As the trade winds are still active now, we’ll see our showers focusing on the windward sides…for the most part at least. Meanwhile, as tropical storm Darby gets closer to Hawaii, we’ll see this storm bringing significant weather changes. As Tropical Storm Darby moves by close to, or just north of the islands, we’ll see tropical storm conditions locally, including high surf, strong and gusty winds, and flooding rainfall…stay tuned.
Effects of approaching Darby on the Hawaiian Islands: Tropical Storm Darby is approaching from the east, and will impact island weather through the weekend. Considerable uncertainty remains as to the extent of the impacts, but a tropical storm warning for the Big Island means tropical storm conditions are expected, and a tropical storm watch for Maui county means tropical storm conditions are possible.
Windy and wet weather is expected elsewhere across the island chain. Expect conditions to deteriorate over the Big Island and Maui later tonight, with increasing showers spreading to the other islands Saturday into Monday. After Darby moves away from the islands early next week, moderate trade winds are expected to deliver a few windward showers.
Based on the current forecast, Hawaii will experience the effects of Darby today into this weekend, in the form of increased rainfall and high surf. As Darby gets closer, the circulation of this storm will also bring stronger, potentially damaging winds. The probabilities of tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island and Maui now seem likely…based on the current CPHC forecast track. There will be locally heavy rainfall for some areas of the state through Sunday. The inclement weather conditions will arrive over the Big Island first, then moving over Maui County, Oahu, and probably Kauai too.
It should be pointed out that interactions with the main Hawaiian Islands may cause significant disruptions to Darby…and so the intensity forecast confidence is not high at this time.
Based on the 11am HST tropical storm wind probabilities for Darby, damaging tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of: Big Island from late tonight or Saturday until Sunday. Maui from Saturday until Sunday. Lanai from Saturday until Sunday night. Molokai from Saturday until Sunday night. Oahu from Saturday night until Sunday night. Kauai from Sunday night until Monday.
More significant bands of heavy showers and squalls associated with Darby may start to impact the windward side of the Big Island starting as early as late tonight. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate through early Saturday morning as the outer rain bands from the tropical storm will likely move across the Big Island.
Heavy rainfall associated with Darby will continue to spread northwest over the weekend. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for Maui County and the Big Island. It is possible that there may be an expansion of the Flash Flood Watch to include additional islands as we get get into the weekend.
It’s time to prepare for these inclement weather conditions. I would highly suggest keeping an eye on the latest updates on approaching tropical storm Darby.
Once Darby passes, expect muggy southeasterly flow to develop for a brief period early next week. After that, warm and slightly less humid trade wind weather eventually returns starting around Tuesday.
Animation of approaching Tropical Storm Darby…showing the Big Island and Maui
Marine environment details: Strong winds and building seas directly associated with approaching Tropical Storm Darby continue over the southeast Hawaiian offshore waters. Winds and seas are also increasing over the coastal waters adjacent to the windward and southeast Big Island today. These winds and elevated seas will then continue spreading from east to west through the remaining coastal waters, with Tropical Storm Warning/Watches adjacent to the Big Island and Maui over the weekend. Elsewhere, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the remainder of the Hawaiian waters…due to a combination of strong trade winds and elevated seas.
Swells associated with Tropical Storm Darby are already affecting the islands. The buoys at Hilo on the Big Island, Pauwela near Maui, and Mokapu Point near Oahu are showing significant wave heights. Since the swell produced by Darby will continue to build during the next 24 to 36 hours, a High Surf Warning is in effect for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for most east facing shores elsewhere across the state. There is a possibility that there will be an expanding of the High Surf Warning to include additional east facing shores west of Maui.
Trade wind weather pattern…breaking down as Darby gets closer
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle is dissipating in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1505 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area – Final Advisory
Tropical Storm Frank remains active offshore from Mexico…located about 235 west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
Tropical Storm Georgette remains active…located about 870 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
>>> Here’s a satellite image showing both TS Frank and TS Georgette
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
Darby continues to move westward…located about 240 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Birds on top of the world…with nowhere to go – Climate change could make much of the Arctic unsuitable for millions of migratory birds that travel north to breed each year, according to a new international study published in Global Change Biology.
The University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences’ researcher Hannah Wauchope said that suitable breeding conditions for Arctic shorebirds could collapse by 2070.
“This means that countries throughout the world will have fewer migratory birds reaching their shores,” Ms Wauchope said.
Arctic breeding shorebirds undertake some of the longest known migratory journeys in the animal kingdom, with many traveling more than 20,000 kilometers per year to escape the northern winter.
The bar-tailed godwit flies from Alaska to New Zealand in a single flight of 12,000 kilometers without landing.
The study predicts that, in a warming world, migratory birds will become increasingly restricted to small islands in the Arctic Ocean as they retreat north.
This could cause declines in hard-hit regions and some birds could even completely change migratory pathways to migrate closer to suitable habitat.
“Climate change is also opening up the Arctic to threats such as mining and tourism, and we must make sure we protect key places for all Arctic species, including these amazing migratory birds,” Ms Wauchope said.
UQ’s Associate Professor Richard Fuller from the ARC Center of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED) said most migratory populations followed well-defined migratory routes.
“This makes shorebirds an excellent group to investigate how climate change might impact breeding grounds and conservation actions that could address these impacts,” Associate Professor Fuller said.
The research modeled the suitable climate breeding conditions of 24 Arctic shorebirds and projected them to 2070.
The researchers also examined the impact on Arctic birds of the world’s last major warming event about 6000 to 8000 years ago.
“Climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift and contract over the next 70 years, with up to 83 per cent of Arctic bird species losing most of their currently suitable area,” Ms Wauchope said.
“This far exceeds the effects of the last major warming event on Earth, but genetic evidence suggests that even then the birds struggled to deal with the warming.”
She said that suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline fastest in the areas with most species (western Alaska and eastern Russia), where Arctic birds are already becoming vulnerable to the “shrubification” of the tundra, and predators such as red foxes moving north.