Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:
82 – 78 Lihue, Kauai
89 – 78 Honolulu, Oahu
91 – 76 Molokai AP
91 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui – record 94…back in 1953
88 – 80 Kona AP
86 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday:
3.46 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.66 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.16 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
2.10 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.65 Ahumoa, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday:
20 Port Allen, Kauai
35 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
28 Molokai
35 Lanai
23 Kahoolawe
30 Maalaea Bay, Maui
30 Upolu AP, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Darby is approaching Hawaii, with Estelle further to the east…along with former Celia moving away northwest of Kauai
Tropical Storm Darby is expected to take a rather abrupt turn towards the northwest, just before reaching the Big Island, probably, nonetheless…parts of the Hawaiian Islands will be impacted
Tropical Storm Darby…in our central Pacific
What the models show for Darby
Estelle will steady weaken…not a threat for Hawaii
Estelle peaking in strength…slipping down into the tropical depression category Friday
What the models are showing for Estelle
We see former Celia, with associated thunderstorms moving away to our northwest…with Darby spinning in the direction of Hawaii
Showers locally…especially windward sections – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Refreshing trades through Friday…then some changes with our local winds during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1039 millibar high pressure system in the area far north of Hawaii. Gusty trade winds will return for a couple of days, with less humidity. We’ll then see more muggy air arriving…as tropical storm Darby moves closer, through the weekend into early next week. There’s a chance that Darby may not take such an abrupt turn towards the northwest, as expected, in which case our winds could increase markedly…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
We’re into a typical trade wind weather pattern for the time being…with windward showers for the most part. As the trade winds are active now, we’ll see our showers focusing on the windward sides…for the most part at least. The leeward beaches should be quite nice, with just a few showers here and there. Meanwhile, as tropical storm Darby gets closer to Hawaii, we could see this system bringing a weather change our way. There continues to be a spread in what the computer models are suggesting, so there’s still uncertainty about the eventual track for Darby, and associated weather conditions as it nears Hawaii. It should be pointed out that the islands, and especially the eastern islands in the chain, could see tropical storm conditions…stay tuned.
Effects of approaching Darby on the Hawaiian Islands: This tropical storm continues to spin in the direction of Hawaii, and thus, we will need to keep a very close eye on Mr. Darby. Beyond 72 hours, Darby is expected to turn sharply toward the northwest. This is a rather unusual track for a tropical cyclone in the central Pacific, so there is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty to the forecast. Since Darby continues to track toward the main Hawaiian Islands, we may see a Tropical Storm Watch being issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at some point later today.
Darby will be moving over slightly warmer water the next couple of days, while wind shear aloft is forecast to increase slightly. Darby is expected to remain surrounded by rather dry air as well. Little change in intensity is expected for the next few days, with gradual weakening beyond that…as Darby turns northwest over cooler water and wind shear increases.
Interests in the Hawaiian islands should monitor the progress of Darby. However, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts, because the average track error 72 hours out is near 100 miles, while the average intensity error is about 17 mph. In addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area…well away from the center.
A lot of the local Hawaiian forecast will depend on the track and intensity of Tropical Storm Darby. Friday will likely continue to bring trade wind weather with the current Darby forecast. Friday night throughout the weekend…Darby will become more of a concern.
Based on the current forecast, the east end of the state (the Big Island and Maui County) could experience the effects of Darby as early as Friday night, and continuing into the weekend, in the form of increased rainfall, and stronger winds. The probabilities of tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island and Maui have increased…based on the CPHC forecast track. There may be locally heavy rainfall for these areas Friday night through Sunday.
If, and how much these impacts would spread to the remaining islands is still heavily dependent on the future forecasts of Darby.
Animation of approaching Tropical Storm Darby
Marine environment details: A small craft advisory remains posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island, with strong high pressure to our north. Expect windy conditions for the next few days. Swells from Darby are beginning to reach the islands, and are expected to continue to build through the end of the week, along with locally generated wind waves. Depending on the track and intensity of Darby, winds and seas may increase over the eastern coastal waters this weekend.
Swells from Tropical Storm Darby will cause an increase in surf along east facing shores through the weekend. Advisory level surf is likely over the eastern islands later today or tonight, and expected to gradually spread up the island chain tonight and Friday. Depending on the strength and intensity of Darby, surf heights could approach warning levels during the peak of the swell. Otherwise there will be a series of small southerly swells through the rest of the week and on through the weekend.
Trade wind weather pattern
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Estelle remains active well offshore from Mexico…located about 1185 west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
1.) Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
2.) Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
Darby continues to move westward…located about 645 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Birds on top of the world, with nowhere to go – Climate change could make much of the Arctic unsuitable for millions of migratory birds that travel north to breed each year, according to a new international study published today in Global Change Biology.
The University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences’ researcher Hannah Wauchope said that suitable breeding conditions for Arctic shorebirds could collapse by 2070.
“This means that countries throughout the world will have fewer migratory birds reaching their shores,” Ms Wauchope said.
Arctic breeding shorebirds undertake some of the longest known migratory journeys in the animal kingdom, with many traveling more than 20,000 kilometers per year to escape the northern winter.
The bar-tailed godwit flies from Alaska to New Zealand in a single flight of 12,000 kilometers without landing.
The study predicts that, in a warming world, migratory birds will become increasingly restricted to small islands in the Arctic Ocean as they retreat north.
This could cause declines in hard-hit regions and some birds could even completely change migratory pathways to migrate closer to suitable habitat.
“Climate change is also opening up the Arctic to threats such as mining and tourism, and we must make sure we protect key places for all Arctic species, including these amazing migratory birds,” Ms Wauchope said.
UQ’s Associate Professor Richard Fuller from the ARC Center of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED) said most migratory populations followed well-defined migratory routes.
“This makes shorebirds an excellent group to investigate how climate change might impact breeding grounds and conservation actions that could address these impacts,” Associate Professor Fuller said.
The research modeled the suitable climate breeding conditions of 24 Arctic shorebirds and projected them to 2070.
The researchers also examined the impact on Arctic birds of the world’s last major warming event about 6000 to 8000 years ago.
“Climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift and contract over the next 70 years, with up to 83 per cent of Arctic bird species losing most of their currently suitable area,” Ms Wauchope said.
“This far exceeds the effects of the last major warming event on Earth, but genetic evidence suggests that even then the birds struggled to deal with the warming.”
She said that suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline fastest in the areas with most species (western Alaska and eastern Russia), where Arctic birds are already becoming vulnerable to the “shrubification” of the tundra, and predators such as red foxes moving north.