2016-07-02

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

82 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 75  Molokai AP
87 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
87 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday morning:

0.10  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.00  Oahu
0.00  Puu Alii, Molokai

0.00  Lanai

0.00  Kahoolawe
0.12  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.27  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday morning:

25  Puu Lua, Kauai
53  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Molokai
28  Lanai
42  Kahoolawe
55  Kaupo Gap, Maui
42  Puu Mali, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs



High and middle level clouds riding across our skies at times…we can also see Tropical Storm Agatha far east of the state


Tropical Storm Agatha in the northeastern Pacific…not a problem for Hawaii


What the computer models are showing…keeping it safely away from Hawaii

Thunderstorms far offshore to the southeast and southwest of Hawaii

Diminishing higher level clouds this weekend…more coming though

A few showers – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…coastal and channel waters statewide

Gale Warning… windy coasts and channels around the Big Island and Maui County

Wind Advisory…all islands through today

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Solid trade wind flow across the state…strong and gusty this weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain robust today, and easing-up slightly through the holiday on Monday. We will see unusual gale force winds blowing across some marine zones…with wind advisories active over the state as well. I would expect winds to gust up over 40 mph, topping-out close to 50 mph in those most windy locations. These blustery conditions, coupled with the limited rainfall and low relatively humidity…will keep our local fire danger elevated. Gusty trade winds will continue right on into next week…although becoming lighter during the second half of the week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

There will be a few passing showers today…with a likely increase later Sunday into Monday. Distinctly dry conditions will remain over the islands through the first part of the holiday weekend. As we get into Sunday and the 4th of July holiday, we should see an increase in windward biased showers, although not exclusively…which could become numerous. This moisture will ride up over Hawaii on the gusty trade wind flow, bringing wet trade wind weather through the middle of the new week. Thereafter, the off and on wet trade wind pattern through Wednesday or so, should back-off during the later part of the week.

Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: We now see the first tropical storm of the season churning the waters of the eastern Pacific, named Agatha. The models show at least one new storm forming in the general area where Agatha spun up, which will be called Blas over the next several days. This storm is expected to follow in the general track that Agatha has taken, and may become a stronger system. We’ll need to keep an eye on Blas, although it appears to take a turn to the north, while still in the eastern Pacific. There may be a third storm spinning up thereafter, which will become tropical storm Celia. In sum, I don’t see any of these tropical cyclone’s causing problems for the Hawaiian Islands.

Marine environment details: Recent observations from the nearshore buoys have been running around 1 to 2 feet lower than predicted this morning, which indicates the current wind forecast over the waters could be running slightly too high. The overnight satellite pass however, did clip the Kauai waters, and showed wind magnitudes ranging from 20 to 25 knots. This,combined with the potential of the local winds slightly increasing further will support keeping the current advisory and gale warning in place through today. Although the winds will begin to ease Sunday through the upcoming week, the Small Craft Advisory will likely be extended in later forecast packages, mostly for the windier marine areas from the Pailolo Channel to the waters south of the Big Island.

Advisory-level surf will remain possible along the east facing beaches due to the strong trade winds, beginning as early as tonight. Elsewhere, no significant surf is anticipated through the weekend. Looking ahead through the upcoming week, the latest wave model guidance has begun to reflect a small to moderate south swell by the end of next week, in response to the recent gale located east of New Zealand. Although later observations at the buoys farther south across the Pacific will need to be monitored over the coming days, this southerly source will likely support near advisory- level surf along the south facing shores by next Friday.

Here on Maui – Early Saturday morning is dawning partly cloudy, with high cirrus clouds lighting up pink just before sunrise again today. The air temperature was 59.9F degrees at 538am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 77 degrees, while Hana was 77, as was Maalaea Bay…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 45 degrees.

Friday Evening Film: Svetlana, Jeff and I will be heading downtown to see a film in Kahului, which will be fun as usual. This time around we’re seeing one called Swiss Army Man, starring Paul Dano, Daniel Radcliffe, Mary Elizabeth Winstead...among many others. The synopsis, outrageously fun and deeply affecting, Swiss Army Man is a gonzo buddy comedy that is the feature film debut of acclaimed music video directors Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan.

Bursting with limitless creativity in both form and content, Swiss Army Man goes from the absurd to the emotional to the whimsical to the profound and back again. Hank (Paul Dano) is stranded on a deserted island, having given up all hope of ever making it home again. But one day everything changes when a corpse named Manny (Daniel Radcliffe) washes up on shore; the two become fast friends, and ultimately go on an epic adventure that will bring Hank back to the woman of his dreams.

Swiss Army Man creates a world like no other, a place of pure fantastical imagination, brimming with magical realism, yet featuring two characters whose dreams and fears are entirely relatable. Dano and Radcliffe both fully commit to their directors’ audacious vision, and their work is exceptional, finding the perfect balance of humor and heart that drives the whole film. A celebration of all the wonders cinema has to offer, Swiss Army Man is a cultural phenomenon in the making; a surreal and wholly original examination of human vulnerability and connection that must be experienced.

This was one of the stranger films that I’ve ever seen, and I enjoyed it quite a bit. I’m honestly not sure what to say more than that. As one critic said, Swiss Army Man is rude, crude, bizarre and oddly touching. The words that come to me are crazy, at times sort of magical, lets not forget absurd, funny, sad…and yes creepy. Jeff and Svetlana weren’t taken by the film, and Jeff gave it a C+ grade, while I came in at a solid B rating. It was definitely a film like no other! If you’re the slightest bit interested, here’s the trailer…which is quirky and unusual to say the least.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 02E (Agatha) continues spinning over the waters of the eastern Pacific this weekend…the first tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season in this part of the world. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 94E, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Floating Solar: A Win-Win for Drought-Stricken Lakes in U.S. – The Colorado River’s two great reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are in retreat. Multi-year droughts and chronic overuse have taken their toll, to be sure, but vast quantities of water are also lost to evaporation. What if the same scorching sun that causes so much of this water loss were harnessed for electric power?

Installing floating solar photovoltaic arrays, sometimes called “floatovoltaics,” on a portion of these two reservoirs in the southwestern United States could produce clean, renewable energy while shielding significant expanses of water from the hot desert sun.

The dual energy and environmental benefits of floating solar arrays are already beginning to earn the technology a place in the global clean energy marketplace, with floatovoltaic projects now being built in places as diverse as Australia, Brazil, China, England, India, Japan, South Korea, and California. And nowhere could they prove as effective as on lakes Mead and Powell, the two largest man-made reservoirs in the U.S.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimates that 800,000 acre-feet of water – nearly six percent of the Colorado River’s annual flow – is baked off Lake Mead’s surface by the searing desert sun during an average year. Lake Powell loses about 860,000 acre-feet annually to evaporation and bank seepage. Since floatovoltaics can reduce evaporation in dry climates by as much as 90 percent, covering portions of these two water bodies with solar panels could result in significant water savings.

Extrapolating from the spatial needs of floating solar farms already built or designed, the electricity gains from installing floatovoltaics on just a fraction of these man-made desert lakes could be momentous. If 6 percent of Lake Mead’s surface were devoted to solar power, the yield would be at least 3,400 megawatts of electric-generating capacity – substantially more than the Hoover Dam’s generating capacity of 2,074 megawatts.

This solar infusion could give the power-hungry Southwest a major boost in renewable electricity, and at least some of that power could piggyback on underused transmission lines built for the Hoover Dam.

A key selling point of floatovoltaics is the extra energy punch they deliver when compared to terrestrial photovoltaics in a similar climate. Hovering just above sun-shaded lake water, the floating photovoltaic panels would operate at cooler temperatures than solar arrays on desert land – a key factor in improving the productivity of semiconductors, including PV cells. One project proponent expects a 50 percent boost in electricity per watt of installed power from her company’s planned solar arrays at a sun-saturated sewage treatment pond in Jamestown, South Australia.

In Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, those who enjoy boating, fishing, snorkeling, and swimming on Lake Mead and Lake Powell may not immediately embrace the idea of solar arrays competing with their recreational activities. Yet with beaches retreating and marinas stranded on dry land, the benefits of curbing water loss are becoming increasingly clear. Moreover, at a time when some hydrology experts and conservationists are saying that Lake Powell should be partially drained to restore Glen Canyon and salvage Lake Mead, which is about 360 miles downriver, building solar power on a portion of these ailing artificial lakes may seem like a smarter alternative.

Japan has been a pioneer in floatovoltaics. It began modestly, floating enough panels on two reservoirs in Hyogo Prefecture to meet the electricity needs of roughly 920 households. Now it is scaling up. On a reservoir in Chiba Prefecture, a plant slated for completion in 2018 will generate power for nearly 5,000 households. In Japan’s relatively mild climate, preventing evaporation may be less critical than in the American Southwest. But the prospect of tapping solar power without taxing scarce land resources has its own merits in a small, densely populated country that is searching — post-Fukushima — for alternatives to nuclear power.

Floating solar arrays also are being installed on a reservoir in the Brazilian Amazon. About 910 square miles of rainforest were flooded several decades ago when Brazil’s reigning military regime built the Balbina Dam, submerging millions of trees and destroying indigenous homes and hunting grounds. Today, due to persistent droughts and the languid flow of the river that feeds the Balbina Reservoir, the dam operates at only a fifth of its rated power capacity.

Soon, though, an expanding network of floating solar modules may help redeem this failed hydroelectric venture. In its pilot phase, a five-megawatt solar installation will cover an area equal to about five football fields and will generate enough power for roughly 9,000 households. Later, if all goes well, planners hope to build a massive 300-megawatt project that would produce enough electricity for about 540,000 Brazilian homes.

The list of pending or completed floatovoltaic projects goes on. In India, a pilot-scale installation has been successfully tested on a lake on the outskirts of Kolkata, and developers are negotiating for much larger floating solar plants on lakes in the state of Kerala. In California’s Sonoma County, sewage treatment ponds are now being equipped with floating PV arrays. And in the United Kingdom, Europe’s largest floating solar installation is nearing completion on the Queen Elizabeth II Reservoir outside London. Another is being built on a reservoir near Manchester. There, as in Japan, efficient use of available land resources is a key driver.

Though the U.S. Southwest is far less land-constrained than the U.K., the open desert is coming under increasing stress as solar developers seek suitable lands for their utility-scale projects. Protecting the desert tortoise has been a major concern at some sites, including two photovoltaic plants on Moapa Paiute tribal land in southeastern Nevada, just a few dozen miles from Lake Mead. In California, renewable energy advocates and conservationists have been at serious odds over the prospect of developing large solar sites in desert areas and adjacent lands in seven counties.

Floating solar arrays on reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell won’t supplant the need for land-based solar in California and other parts of the Southwest, but they can ease some of the pressure on fragile desert ecosystems.

As we confront the mounting impacts of global warming, maintaining a viable balance between water supply and demand in warmer climates will be especially challenging. In the sunny Southwest, reducing water losses to evaporation should be part of a wide-ranging water conservation strategy. Floating solar farms have a role to play, curbing water waste as they produce carbon-neutral power.

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