2014-03-01

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday:

82  Lihue, Kauai

80  Honolulu, Oahu

79  Molokai
84  Kahului, Maui
83  Kailua Kona

82  Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 543am Saturday morning:

 

Kailua Kona – 74

Poipu, Kauai - 64

Haleakala Summit –   39 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 36 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

 

Aloha Paragraphs





Our attention remains on the impressive cold front about to
enter the state – which will bring wet weather, and possible

localized flooding this weekend – first on Kauai and Oahu,

and then down the chain to Maui County and the Big Island…

where the best chance of the heaviest rains will occur during

the day Sunday

Winds southeast to southwest ahead of, and along the cold

front…then veering to the northwest and north, with a chill
in the wake of the front

Improved weather after this weekend…continuing through

most of the new week ahead

Extra Large to Giant high surf event… north and west shores of

Kauai and Oahu, expanding to Maui County and the Big Island -

starting later today through Sunday…dangerously high!

High Wind Warning…Big Island summits – through 6pm today -
50-60 mph with stronger gusts

Small Craft Wind Advisory…all coastal and channels waters

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Saturday morning:

07  Makaha Ridge, Kauai – SE
18  Kuaokala, Oahu – SE

17  Molokai – SW
13  Lanai – SW

13  Kahoolawe – NE

06  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SE
20  PTA West, Big Island – SE

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday morning (545am totals):

0.84  Waialae, Kauai
1.23  Palehua, Oahu

0.47  Molokai

0.36  Lanai

0.09  Kahoolawe

0.70  Kaupo Gap, Maui

0.08  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The weather outlook that’s been running all this past week, about this major change in weather…will actualize this weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We find low pressure systems far northwest and north of the state, with a cold front trailing to the south…which is close to impacting Kauai at the moment. Meanwhile, we see a high pressure system offshore well to the east of the state, which continues to move away. Winds will generally be light from the southeast, followed by south to southwest winds…ahead of this strong cold front. Our winds will veer around to the cooler northwest and northerly directions in the wake of the fronts passage, called a fropa in the weather business…gradually becoming more mild mannered trade winds as we move through the new week ahead.

Satellite imagery shows patches of low clouds over the state locally…along with the well advertised cold front on Kauai’s doorstep!  Some of these clouds out ahead of the frontal cloud band, are dropping light to moderately heavy showers…called prefrontal shower activity. Here’s the looping radar image, showing showers being drawn up over the central islands on the south to southwest Kona winds…generally from Oahu down through Maui County, and the northwest side of the Big Island at the time of this writing. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see this robust frontal cloud band, those bright whiter clouds, are steadily moving east and southeast towards our islands…which will impact Kauai and Oahu today.

This cold front is steadily approaching the state from the northwest, and will swoop down through the entire chain this weekend. The leading edge of this frontal boundary will reach Kauai and Oahu first today, although prefrontal showers will precede it locally over the islands. The front will then push down to Maui County late today into the night, as it slows its its forward progress…before finally bringing its precipitation to the Big Island during the day Sunday. The primary concern with this cold front, as opposed to the last several, is the expected slowing pace it will take as it migrates through our area. The slower the front, the better chance it has to drop rainfall on us…which may lead to some localized flooding issues. Weather early in the new week ahead will show a marked improvement, with generally fair conditions…although a bit on the cool side at first. The latest forecast models are now describing another cold front approaching the state, with unsettled weather towards next weekend. I’ll be back many times during the day with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Saturday wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 58.1 degrees at 625am on this Saturday morning.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

North Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03W  remains active in the northwestern Pacific, to the southeast of Guam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image.

South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 16P remains active in the southwestern Pacific…near Fiji. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image.

North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Melting summer ice in Antarctica – Antarctica’s Ross Sea is one of the few Polar Regions where summer sea-ice coverage has increased during the last few decades, bucking a global trend of drastic declines in summer sea ice across the Arctic Ocean and in two adjacent embayments of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. But now, a modeling study led by Professor Walker Smith of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science suggests that the Ross Sea’s recent observed increase in summer sea-ice cover is likely short-lived, with the area projected to lose more than half its summer sea ice by 2050 and more than three quarters by 2100.

These changes, says Smith, will significantly impact marine life in what is one of the world’s most productive and unspoiled marine ecosystems, where rich blooms of phytoplankton feed krill, fish, and higher predators such as whales, penguins, and seals.

Smith, who has been conducting ship-based fieldwork in the Ross Sea since the 1980s, collaborated on the study with colleagues at Old Dominion University. Their paper, “The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century,” appears in the Feb. 26 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. Smith’s co-authors are Mike Dinniman, Eileen Hofmann, and John Klinck.

Smith says “The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating the production of Antarctica’s sea ice overall and is biologically very productive, which makes changes in its physical environment of global concern. Our study predicts that it will soon reverse its present trend and experience major drops in ice cover in summer, which, along with decreased mixing of the vertical column, will extend the season of phytoplankton growth. These changes will substantially alter the area’s pristine food web.”

Researchers attribute the observed increase in summertime sea ice in the Ross Sea—where the number of days with ice cover has grown by more two months over the past three decades—to a complex interplay of factors, including changes in wind speed, precipitation, salinity, ocean currents, and air and water temperature.

Sea ice covers a large part of the Ross Sea in this summer 2007 photo. A large opening in the ice cover, or polynya, extends to the east. Photo courtesy of NASA. But global climate models agree that air temperatures in Antarctica will increase substantially in the coming decades, with corresponding changes in the speed and direction of winds and ocean currents. When Smith and his colleagues fed these global projections into a high-resolution computer model of air-sea-ice dynamics in the Ross Sea, they saw a drastic reduction in the extent and duration of summer sea ice.

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