Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1218.60 up $17.10 (comex closing time)
Silver: $17.10 up 41 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1214.50
Silver: $16.96
Gold/silver trading: see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.
Expect the banker crooks to attack gold/silver tomorrow as they hate to see two advances in precious metals on consecutive day and we are very close to upper resistance (for gold at $1224 and silver at $17.40
Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:
At the gold comex today, we surprisingly had a poor delivery day, registering 3 notices served for 300 oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz .
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 244.16 tonnes for a loss of 59 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!
end
In silver, the open interest fell by a large 3506 contracts, as Thursday’s silver price was down by 39 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 168,215 contracts. The front April month has an OI of 179 contracts for a loss of 1 contract. We are still close to multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.
We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold the collapse of OI continues. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 382,278 for another loss of 4,986 contracts as gold was down $7.20 on Thursday. We had 3 notices served upon for 300 oz.
Today, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/ Gold Inventory rests at 737.24 tonnes
In silver, / the SLV/Inventory /we have a small withdrawal of 136,000 oz and thus the inventory tonight is 321.839 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
1, Today we had the open interest in silver fall appreciably with the 39 cent drop in price on Thursday. The OI for gold surprisingly fell by a huge 4986 contracts as the price of gold fell on Thursday ($7.20). Also we will report on both the gold COT and silver COT released at 3;30 pm today.
(report Harvey/)
2. Gold demand into China equals 46 tonnes of gold during the last weekly reporting
(Koos Jansen)
3. USA jobs report lousy/people not in the labour force rises again.
(zero hedge, Dave Kranzler, IRD/)
4. Reports that Greece will exit the Euro and then nationalize their banks
(zero hedge)
5. To further inflame Germany, Greece calculates what they are owed in reparations Germany is not enthralled
(courtesy zero hedge)
6.Goldman Sachs states that with the latest jobs report that the Fed will put its hiking of interest rates on hold. This propelled gold.
(zero hedge)
we have these and other stories for you tonight
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest fell by another whopping 4,986 contracts from 387,264 down to 382,278 as gold was down by $7.20 on Thursday (at the comex close). We are now in the active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 1708 contracts down to 3,087. We had 667 contracts filed upon on Thursday so we lost another 1041 contracts or 104,100 oz will not stand for delivery in April. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI rose by 33 contracts up to 690. The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 2,961 contracts down to 259,437. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calender. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 58,932 (Where on earth are the high frequency boys?). The confirmed volume on Thursday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 123,186 contracts. Today we had 3 notices filed for 300 oz.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell by 3506 contracts from 171,721 down to 168,215 as silver was down by 39 cents, with respect to Thursday’s trading . We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the OI fell to 179 for a loss of 1 contract. We had 0 notice filed on Thursday so we we neither lost nor gained any silver contracts standing for delivery in April. The next big active delivery month is May and here the OI dropped by 4,571 contracts down to 94,185 The estimated volume today was poor at 13,788 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 44,713 contracts which is good in volume. We had 1 notice filed for 5,000 oz today.
April initial standings
April 6.2015
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
3 contracts (300 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4128 contracts(412,800) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
674 contracts(67,400 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
163,579.2 oz
Today, we had 0 dealer transaction
total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total customer withdrawal: nil
we had 0 customer deposit:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 0 adjustments
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 600 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (674) x 100 oz or 67,400 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (3087) and the number of notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for gold for the April contract month:
No of notices served so far (674) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (3087) – the number of notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz which equals 375,500 oz or 11.679 tonnes of gold.
we lost 1041 contracts or 104,100 oz of gold that will not stand for delivery in April
Total dealer inventory: 647,270.900 or 20.13 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,849,806.094 oz. (244.16) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 59.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real. I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.
end
And now for silver
April silver initial standings
April 6 2015:
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
205,424.110 oz (Scotia, CNT)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served (contracts)
0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
179 contracts(895,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1 contracts (5,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
586,230.1 oz
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits: nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT: 5,191.410 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 200,232.700 oz
total withdrawals; 205,424.110 oz
we had 1 adjustments: and it was a doozy!!!!!
Out of CNT:
7,104,910.93o oz was adjusted out of the dealer at CNT into the customer account of CNT ( in tonnage: 220 tonnes)
something is going on with respect to silver!!
Total dealer inventory: 63.192 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.287 million oz
.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contract for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1) x 5,000 oz = 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (179) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for silver for the April contract month:
1 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(179) -number of notices served upon today (0} x 5000 oz = 900,000 oz standing for the April contract month.
we neither lost nor gained any silver ounces standing.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com
end
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
April 6. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
April 2/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
April 1/2015/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
march 31.2015/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
March 30/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes.
March 27/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
March 26 we had another huge withdrawal of 5.97 tonnes of gold. This gold is heading straight to the vaults of Shanghai, China/GLD inventory 737.24 tonnes
March 25.2015 we had a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 743.21 tonnes
March 24/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 744.40 tonnes
March 23/we had a huge withdrawal of 5.37 tonnes of gold from the GLD vaults/Inventory 744.40 tonnes
march 20/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes
March 19/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory 749.77 tonnes
April 6/2015 / we had no changes in gold/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 737.24 tonnes.
end
And now for silver (SLV):
April 6. we had a small withdrawal of 136,000 oz/inventory tonight rests at 321.839 million oz
April 2/2015: no changes in inventory/SLV inventory rests this weekend at 321.975 million oz
April 1.2015: we had a huge withdrawal of 1.913 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory 321.975 million oz
March 31.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 323.88 million oz
March 30.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory at 323.888 million oz.
March 27. we had a huge withdrawal of 1.439 million oz leave the SLV/Inventory rests this weekend at 323.888 million oz
March 26.2015; no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz
March 25.2015:no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz
March 24.2015/ we had another withdrawal of 835,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 325.323 million oz
March 23./we had a huge withdrawal of 1.174 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory 326.158 million oz
March 20/ no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
April 6/2015 we had a small change (withdrawal) in inventory at the SLV of 136,000 oz/ inventory rests at 321.839 million oz
end
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 8.1% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.8% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 60.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.7%
cash .4%
( April 6/2015)
Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 0.32%!!!!! NAV (April 6/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises -.36% to NAV(April 6/2015
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +0.32%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.36%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
Normally we get the COT report on Friday but due to the holiday it was released today.
Let us see the gold COT:
Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
172,818
92,799
37,572
144,197
225,312
354,587
355,683
Change from Prior Reporting Period
4,584
-21,154
-14,618
-33,861
-5,671
-43,895
-41,443
Traders
135
87
78
49
51
220
187
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
32,998
31,902
387,585
-2,287
-4,739
-46,182
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
end
Our large specs:
My goodness!!
Those large specs that have been long in gold saw the light and added a huge 4584 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in gold covered a monstrous 21,154 contracts from their short side as they were squeezed
Our commercials:
Those commercials that have been long in gold liquidated 33,861 contracts from their long side.
Those commercials that were short in gold covered 5671 contracts from their short side.
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 2287 contracts from their long side.
Those small specs that have been short in gold covered a huge 4739 contracts from their short side.
Conclusion: I have never seen anything like this with respect to the commercials.
end
And now for the silver COT: (quite a difference between the gold COT and silver COT)
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
65,426
22,314
21,968
63,225
113,086
3,094
-7,895
-829
-4,051
6,568
Traders
85
40
46
37
48
Small Speculators
Open Interest
Total
Long
Short
170,105
Long
Short
19,486
12,737
150,619
157,368
-768
-398
-2,554
-1,786
-2,156
non reportable positions
Positions as of:
139
120
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in silver added another 3094 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in silver covered a huge 7895 contracts.
Our commercials;
Those commercials that have been long in silver pitched a huge 4051 contracts from their long side.
Those commercials that have been short in silver added a huge 6568 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 768 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered a tiny 398 contracts from their short side.
Conclusions; in the commercials are wrong, they are in serious problems in silver.
end
And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:
Gold and silver trading early this morning
(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)
off today.
end
James Turk is interviewed by Eric King and they discuss the inevitable default of Greece;
(courtesy Kingworldnews/Eric King/James Turk)
ECB will expropriate Greek bank deposits, Turks tells KWN
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2015-04-03 13:06. Section: Daily Dispatches
9a ET Friday, April 3, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The European Central Bank will expropriate deposits in Greek banks to recover the loans the bank has made to the Greek government, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:
http://kingworldnews.com/man-who-remarkably-first-predicted-ecb-would-st…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
Gold demand in China for the week ended March 27 amounted to 46 tonnes of gold. Year to date: 607 tonnes and a lot higher than Koos had predicted last month. At this rate, gold demanded for the year will be in excess of 2400 tonnes. The world ex China ex Russia produces on an annual basis 2200 tonnes of gold. Also remember that this demand (equals withdrawals of gold from SGE) excludes sovereign purchases.
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Posted on 4 Apr 2015 by Koos Jansen
Thoughts On The Price Of Gold
Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold exchange (SGE), which equal Chinese wholesale gold demand, in week 12 (March 23 – 27) accounted for 46 tonnes, down 14.5 % w/w. Year to date total withdrawals have reached 610 tonnes, up 9 % from 2014, up 33 % from 2013.
Ever wondered why Chinese demand doesn’t move the price of gold substantially higher? A much perceived analysis in the gold space is that (central) banks suppress the price of gold. While it certainly is in their interest to control the price of gold and there are many clues they do intervene, in this post I would like to approach this subject from scratch, from what I believe is basic economics, hopefully sparking debate.
Thoughts On The Price Of Gold
In any market where goods are traded there is supply and demand. For this post we’ll look at the gold market to examine the relationship between both; there can be people offering gold for sale (supply), meeting people who are willing to buy gold (demand). If a transaction is agreed at a certain price the amount of gold sold (supply) is always equal to the amount of gold bought (demand), it’s impossible supply and demand are not equal by any measure – or one would use different metrics to measure either one.
When demand increases relative to supply (economic agents are willing to buy more gold at prevailing prices), the strength of demand will transcend the strength of supply. As a result the price of gold will rise until a new market equilibrium is found. The volume of gold bought in itself does not indicate the price will rise, for if an immense flood of supply would be unleashed that is being met by equally strong demand the price of gold will not change. No matter how much gold is sold, it won’t tell us anything about the strength of demand relative to supply, only the price can tell. The price unveils the forces of supply relative to demand.
In the graph below we can see how an increment in demand relative to supply can move the price.
P – price
Q – quantity of good
S – supply
D – demand
In this example demand increases from Q1 to Q2, while supply remains constant; the price moves up from P1 to P2 for a new market equilibrium.
Technically, if India buys (or imports) 4,000 tonnes a year this doesn’t necessarily mean demand is strong, nor does it mean the price will go up or would have gone up in the process. If supply to India was stronger than demand from India, the price can go down while thousands of tonnes cross the globe (given India has no domestic mine production).
The gold market is quite unique and cannot be compared to other markets, like the potato market. The primary difference lays in the fact that gold can’t be consumed, as it doesn’t corrode all gold is immortal and can be recycled indefinitely. We humans can lose gold, but it can’t vanish. Therefor, all gold mined is added to the total above ground stock. In contrast, potatoes have a limited life span of itself and when eaten are digested. Yearly supply and demand of potatoes is determined by what is produced versus human trends that set our need for consumption.
Gold supply, on the other hand, is less determined by mining output, as this is effectively only a small percentage of the total above ground stock. It’s estimated yearly mining output is 1.6 % of the total above ground stock. I doubt whether this number is accurate, though, for this post the accuracy of this percentage is not important. In theory the total above ground stock is potential supply at the right price. The willingness of owners of gold to sell largely depends on the “category of existence of the gold”. Yearly mining output is likely to be sold no matter what the price is; bullion can be sensitive to price movements to be sold; gold from redundant cellphones is stripped and sold before the chips become actual waste, ancient gold artifacts are likely never to be sold; etc. Furthermore, no one is ever forced to sell – though exceptions by government confiscation have occurred in history. In short, the volume of yearly supply is hard to predict, but for sure it’s more than mining output.
Additionally, many other aspects determine the volume of supply and demand (the price). To name a few: technical analysis, monetary circumstances, inflation, the strength of alternate currencies, industrial applications and supply and demand data (for example, if China buys 2,000 tonnes of gold per annum, but analysts worldwide state – for whatever reason – the Chinese buy 1,000 tonnes, this leads to distortion of sentiment as the market will react on false assumptions).
Two other major components that influence the price are gold derivatives – futures, options, forwards and unallocated gold – and the London Gold Fix. Derivatives are leveraged a multitude of physical supply and demand volumes and therefor have an equally greater impact on the price and sentiment, especially in the near term. In derivative markets the price of gold can be easily moved up or down to the likes of big traders.
Terry Smeeton of the Bank Of England stated at the Australian Gold Conference in March of 1994 (from Frank Veneroso’s Gold Book 1998):
…at least 20 central banks are engaged in swaps, options and futures. This is double the number of banks who were regular players a few years ago.
CME Group, the world’s biggest derivatives marketplace located in the US, launched a program in July 2013 to incentivize central banks outside the US to trade in a number of products, a few of which are Metals Futures Contracts traded on CME Globex, by offering them a special discount (click here to read the details from CME Group). I would be surprised if central banks don’t trade gold futures at this moment.
The London Gold Fix is set twice a day in the London gold market through an electronic, auction-based platform, at which currently seven bullion banks participate. The auction has been under scrutiny as its opaque nature is vulnerable for manipulation.
It should be noted that the volume of gold traded in the London OTC gold market is unknown, but estimated to be a few times the size of the futures market in New York (the COMEX).
Derivatives can be used by bullion banks and central banks to influence the price, subsequently influencing technical analysis and sentiment on which the rest of the market reacts. People can be scared to sell, however, when the price in the paper markets (derivatives) moves up or down, no physical owner of gold is forced to sell at the paper prices. If the paper price goes down and physical demand increases this has to be met by equal physical supply, that is, if the price for physical gold follows the paper price. If the physical price disconnects from the paper price, premiums will appear at one location.
Reality Check
In 2013 the price of gold made a spectacular nosedive, which was followed by an even more impressive exodus of physical gold from Western vaults to China. The UK net exported 1,424 tonnes of bullion, China net imported 1,507 tonnes.
According to my textbooks the drop in price and the physical moving east was a stronger force of supply than demand. We could quantify Chinese demand as “strong”, but supply was stronger. From the World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2014:
The rapid 25% drop in the gold price during the April-June period of 2013 sparked a leap in gold demand that we have heard described as a ‘once in a generation’ event.
My point being, if central banks suppress the price of gold, this can only be done if physical gold is supplied to the market. So the question is, who is currently selling gold to China? (Or in the free market since the London Gold Pool collapsed in 1968.)
China is the largest miner of gold at 450 tonnes a year, though to satisfy domestic demand additional gold is imported; in 2013 Chinese net import exploded to 1,507 tonnes, my estimate for 2014 is at least 1,250 tonnes and year to date China has imported well over 400 tonnes. Is this sold by institutional investors in London (the LBMA system) or by central banks? Eventually time will tell. In the meantime I will continue to research how much gold is flowing to Asia and if there is any gold left in Fort Knox (read this and this post for my Fort Knox research).
Koos Jansen
E-mail Koos Jansen on: koos.jansen@bullionstar.com
end
An interesting commentary from Alasdair Macleod
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
Alasdair Macleod: Gold becomes even more underpriced compared to fiat money supply
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2015-04-03 02:27. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:25p ET Thursday, April 2, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Getting out his fiat money quantity charts again, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod concludes that gold has become even more underpriced compared to fiat money supply in recent months, so much so that an upward correction is due. Macleod’s commentary is posted at GoldMoney’s Internet site here:
http://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/usd-fmq-update?gmrefcode=gata
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
Dave Kranzler interviews Bill Murphy of GATA
(courtesy Bill Murphy/Dave Kranzler)
GATA chairman interviewed by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2015-04-05 01:38. Section: Daily Dispatches
9:38p ET Saturday, April 4, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed for 20 minutes this week by Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics, discussing gold and silver market manipulation and the refusal of mainstream financial news organizations to acknowledge the issue. The interview can be heard at the IRD Internet site, beginning at the 7:30 mark here:
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/shadow-of-truth-ep-14-bill-murphy-…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
IMF chief Lagarde states that Greece will pay what it owes on April 9/2015:
(courtesy London Telegraph/GATA)
IMF chief Christine Lagarde: Greece will pay us back
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2015-04-06 11:18. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mehreen Khan
The Telegraph, London
Monday, April 6, 2015
Greece’s finance minister has reassured the International Monetary Fund that his government will make a key debt repayment this week after meeting with chief Christine Lagarde in Washington.
Following two hours of talks, Lagarde said she had received “confirmation by the minister that payment owing to the fund would be forthcoming on April 9.”
Greece’s growing insolvency problems have raised fears the country would become the first developed nation to ever fall into an arrears process with the IMF. …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11517720/IMF-chief-Christin…
end
I guess these guys are worried about supply:
(courtesy Dave Forrest/OIlPrice.com)
We’ve Never Seen This Before In The Gold Market
Submitted by Dave Forrest via OilPrice.com,
It might prove to be a one-off. But one group in the gold industry this week forged ahead with a unique strategy – which might just change the market.
The group is India’s largest jewellery-maker, Rajesh Exports. Which said that it is taking an unusual step in securing gold supply for its operations.
Buying gold mines.
The firm’s owner, Rajesh Mehta, told reporters in Australia this week that he is visiting the country to vet potential mining acquisitions. Adding that his company has hired investment bankers to identify assets that could “ensure a reliable and permanent gold supply-line to our company”.
The buys are apparently sizeable. With Mehta indicating that he may spend up to $700 million to acquire “equity or loan” interests in mining projects.
“We would also like to invest in the retail jewelry sector in Australia,” he said. “That is, take the gold from here, process it in India and then supply the jewelry back here in the retail line that we set up here.”
Of course, the words of one company don’t make an industry trend. But in the case of Rajesh Exports, the firm does have substantial clout in terms of gold demand — currently consuming about 140 tons per year of the metal. Equal to about 15% of India’s total yearly gold import volume.
It also signals an interesting trend in natural resources of late. Where end users of metal globally are becoming some of the most active parties in funding new mining projects.
We’ve seen similar moves from state-owned metals firms in Asia — in markets ranging from copper to platinum to coal. But the Rajesh Exports asset buy would be one of the first-ever project transactions by an end user for the gold market. Watch for announcements on specific investments for the firm.
Here’s to going to the source.
A must see interview with Bill Kaye and Grant Williams. This youtube interview is in the clear.
(courtesy Bill Kaye/Grant Williams/GATA)
Fund manager Kaye gives Real Vision the case for gold without being a gold bug
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2015-04-05 21:07. Section: Daily Dispatches
5:10p ET Sunday, April 5, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed by Grant Williams, lately editor of the “Things That Make You Go Hmmm. …” letter, for his new Real Vision series of video interviews by subscription, fund manager William Kaye of Pacific Group in Hong Kong observes that markets are now completely manipulated by high-frequency trading and derivatives. Kaye adds that it is hard to make a case for gold on the basis of currency fundamentals without being disparaged as a gold bug, even as Williams notes that many serious investment professionals like Kaye are starting to recognize that case. Kaye argues that the volume of derivatives linked to the currently artificially low interest rates is so huge that it would threaten the world financial system if rates rise.
Kaye’s interview with Williams is posted in the clear at You Tube here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyaiJpCcZdc
A subscription to Real Vision costs $400 per year, but GATA supporters can get a $100 discount by using promotion code GATA-RV when they subscribe. More information about the Real Vision service, other sample material, and a subscription mechanism are accessible at Real Vision’s Internet site here:
https://realvisiontv.com/teaser/118272195
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
And now for the important paper stories for today:
end
(courtesy Forbes/GATA)
The Philippines, another rich country insisting on being poor
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2015-04-06 13:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
Trillion-Dollar Goldmine For Philippine Economy Emerging From Murky Pit
By Ralph Jennings
Forbes.com, Jersey City, New Jersey
Sunday, April 5, 2015
The Philippines holds the world’s second largest gold reserves, and applications from foreign mining firms are piling up to tap that plus a list of other metals that basically just sit under the ground now.
Mining made up just 0.72 of the impoverished Southeast Asian country’s economy in 2012 as gold production fell back that year. Access to the $1.4 trillion Philippine mining sector, rich also in copper and nickel, has been mired since the 1980s in klutzy laws, environmental battles, and land rights issues. It may be on its way out of the pit this year.
Officials in Manila see mining as an untapped treasure that could help sustain recent annual economic growth of about 6 percent and bring in foreign investment — a national priority since 2010. It’s one of the country’s next boom sectors, forecasts Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist with Banco de Oro UniBank in metro Manila. …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2015/04/05/trillion-dollar-gol…
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A must read….
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin
Greeced Lightning!
We seem to have finally arrived at some sort of moment of truth regarding Greece and their inclusion in the EU. The speculation is they will be out of money byApril 9th, this Thursday, unable to make a less than 500 million euro payment. Please keep in mind they have already been raiding the country’s pension plans to fund day to day services. How large of a “dent” they have already made remains to be seen but that is not the point. The point is this, any person, corporation or government who needs to dig into retirement savings for daily operations is like buying a carton of cigarettes with a credit card at 14.99% …and then carrying the balance!
Before laying out their potential options, please keep in mind that Mr. Varoufakis was in New York this past weekend meeting with Christine Lagarde , Mr. Tsipras plans a trip to Moscow forTuesday. Are they pleading for unpaid bailout funds from the IMF? And if they don’t get them, do they cut a deal and fall into Russia’s arms? This, just as so many nations have pledged their allegiance to the East and the AIIB bank (topic for tomorrow), Greece may be forced into a pivot toward the rising Sun. They do however have something left to offer, they stand between Turkey and Eastern Europe, they can provide a route for Russian gas to flow to Europe.
What options does Greece have left? As I see it, they really only have three, and all with blurry edges. First, they can cut some sort of deal with Germany (the EU) and the IMF. They can kick the can down the road by extending maturities of existing debt and restructuring it. The IMF still owes past monies pledged in bailouts, will they really throw new money away knowing it cannot be paid back? Obviously this does nothing to face the real problem, Greece simply has too much debt for the size of their economy (this is a global problem but not “admitted yet”). This option may have been taken off the table on Friday. As a side note, it was reported Friday by Der Spiegel the IMF evacuated their Athens office. Why would they do this? I can only come up with one or two scenarios. The IMF is giving up and know it is over … or, they are getting out of town while they still can. Maybe they realize massive social unrest will be unleashed and don’t want to see their employees hanging from lamp posts? This was denied by Saturdayhttp://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_04/04/2015_548826
but interesting nonetheless!
Their second option is to just default. If they cannot make debt payments, they simply don’t pay and thus become classified as a default. The next question is whether or not they would stay in the EU? Would they want to? Or even be allowed to? Option number three, an offshoot of number two, is Greece defaults and they decide to leave the EU (or are kicked out) and join team Russia.
My guess is we will see Greece default, leave the EU and cut a gas pipeline deal with Russia becoming a stepping stone for China’s “silk road”. At this point, it’s the only thing that makes any sense …if you are Greek and try to do what is best for Greece. A story also making the rounds on Friday was preparations to re issue the “drachma” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11513341/Greece-draws-up-drachma-plans-prepares-to-miss-IMF-payment.html . If this is true, I would say the decision to leave the EU has already been made except for the formalities! The next question is the biggie, and one which will affect the entire world. How do the markets and financial systems react to this?
Before exploring this, James Turk proposed a theory the Greek banks will be bailed in as their deposit balances slip down to equal the close to 100 billion Euros that Greece owes the ECB. http://kingworldnews.com/man-who-remarkably-first-predicted-ecb-would-steal-greek-bank-deposits-issues-more-shocking-predictions-for-2015/ He believes this will be done within the next 10 days or so. In my opinion, there is one big “IF” in this theory. I would question whether or not the ECB or even the BIS would have the authority to do Cyprus style bail ins if Greece leaves or has already left the EU. Wouldn’t this be a sovereign decision? One made by the Greeks themselves? If I were a Greek depositor, I wouldn’t however hang around to see how it turns out, I’m just not sure if the authority exists to bail in Greek b