Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1200.90 down $7.20 (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.69 down 39 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1202.00
Silver: $16.70
Gold/silver trading: see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.
Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:
The gold comex today, we surprisingly had a good delivery day, registering 667 notices served for 66,700 oz. Silver comex registered 1 notice for 5,000 oz .
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 244.16 tonnes for a loss of 59 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!
end
In silver, the open interest rose by 1,616 contracts, as Wednesday’s silver price was up by 46 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 171,721 contracts. The front April month has an OI of 180 contracts for a gain of 50 contracts. The gain of silver OI in the front month for two days in a row is quite telling as the bankers seem to be in need of silver. We are still close to multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.
We had 1 notice served upon for 5,000 oz.
In gold the collapse of OI has stopped. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 387,264 for another loss of 321 contracts despite the rise in gold price yesterday to the tune of $25.55. We had 667 notices served upon for 66,700 oz.
Today, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/ Gold Inventory rests at 737.24 tonnes
In silver, / the SLV/Inventory remains constant, at 321.975 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
1, Today we had the open interest in silver rise quite appreciably with the 46 cent rise yesterday. The OI for gold surprisingly fell by 321 contracts despite the huge rise in price of gold yesterday (25.50)
(report Harvey/)
2. Greece will likely miss some payments in April. However they do have a 30 day grace period. The action may begin on April 9 with a missed payment to the IMF:
(Bank of America)
3. Iran and the P 5 plus 1 countries “agree” to a settlement on their nuclear capabilities. The problem is that it is not an agreement but only a document that outlines the parameters for a deal.
(zero hedge)
4. Yemeni rebels are in the centre of Aden and they may obtain a stranglehold on the Bab al Mandeb strait. Also a division of the central bank of Yemen is in Aden. Saudi Arabia is reading to invade as they suffered their first casualty.
(zero hedge)
5. India’s imports of gold in March seem to total in excess of 100 tonnes
(Dave Kranzler/IRD/John Brimelow)
6. Israel joins the AIIB as almost all of the USA’s friends are departing.
This could be a huge game changer
(GATA/Reuters)
7. With respect to USA economic data:
The trade deficit plummets. The real scary situation is the fact that imports have fallen faster than USA exports. We can understand the USA exports falling with the high dollar but imports falling through the roof? And the higher dollar encourages imports!!
(zero hedge)
8. USA factory orders fall. On a non seasonal report new factory orders have fallen quite badly in the latest 12 months and this geneally signals a recession
(zero hedge)
we have these and other stories for you tonight
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest fell by another 321 contracts from 387,585 down to 387,264 despite the fact that gold was up by $25.55 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 627 contracts down to 4795. We had 1 contract filed upon yesterday so we lost another 626 contracts or 62600 oz will not stand for delivery in April. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI rose by 115 contracts up to 657. The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 222 contracts down to 262,398. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calender. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 62,275 (Where on earth are the high frequency boys?). The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 160,912 contracts. Today we had 667 notices filed for 66,700 oz.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by 1616 contracts from 170,105 up to 171,721 as silver was up by 46 cents, with respect to Wednesday’s trading . It certainly seems that we have some resolute longs who refuse to part with their silver contracts. We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the OI rose to 180 for a gain of 50 contracts.(most unusual). we had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained 50 contracts or an additional 250,000 oz of silver will stand for delivery in April. The next big active delivery month is May and here the OI dropped by 361 contracts down to 98,756 The estimated volume today was poor at 17,352 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 49,009 contracts which is good in volume. We had 1 notice filed for 5,000 oz today.
April initial standings
April 2.2015
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
161,135.800oz (Manfra,Scotia) 5012 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
300.000 oz ???
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
667 contracts (66,700 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4128 contracts(412,800) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
674 contracts(67,400 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
163,579.2 oz
Today, we had 1 dealer transaction
total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 dealer deposit
i) Into Brinks: 300.000 oz (can someone explain this??? exact oz deposit)
total dealer deposit: 300.000 oz
And the farce on kilobars continues!!
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Manfra: 321.50 oz (10 kilobars)
ii) Out of Scotia: 160,814.300 oz (5002 kilobars
total customer withdrawal: 161,135.800 oz (5012 kilobars)
we had 0 customer deposit:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 1 adjustment
Out of Scotia: 12,060.695 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Scotia.
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 600 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 667 contract of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 209 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (671) x 100 oz or 67,100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (4795) and the number of notices served upon today (667) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for gold for the April contract month:
No of notices served so far (671) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (4795) – the number of notices served upon today (667) x 100 oz which equals 479,500 oz or 14.91 tonnes of gold.
we lost 626 contracts or 62,600 oz of gold that will not stand for delivery in April
Total dealer inventory: 647,270.900 or 20.13 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,849,806.094 oz. (244.16) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 59.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real. I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.
end
And now for silver
April silver initial standings
April 2 2015:
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
157,052.770 oz (Brinks,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts)
1 contracts (5,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
179 contracts(895,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1 contracts (5,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
586,230.1 oz
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposits: nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks: 15,729.12 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 141,323.659
total withdrawals; 157,052.77 oz
we had 1 adjustments:
Out of Delaware:
4,923.545 oz was adjusted out of the customer at Delaware into the dealer account of Delaware
Total dealer inventory: 70.297 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.493 million oz
.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 1 contract for 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1) x 5,000 oz = 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (180) and the number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for silver for the April contract month:
1 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(180) -number of notices served upon today (1} x 5000 oz = 900,000 oz standing for the April contract month.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com
end
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
April 2/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
April 1/2015/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
march 31.2015/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
March 30/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes.
March 27/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
March 26 we had another huge withdrawal of 5.97 tonnes of gold. This gold is heading straight to the vaults of Shanghai, China/GLD inventory 737.24 tonnes
March 25.2015 we had a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 743.21 tonnes
March 24/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 744.40 tonnes
March 23/we had a huge withdrawal of 5.37 tonnes of gold from the GLD vaults/Inventory 744.40 tonnes
march 20/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes
March 19/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory 749.77 tonnes
April 2/2015 / we had no changes in gold/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 737.24 tonnes.
end
And now for silver (SLV):
April 2/2015: no changes in inventory/SLV inventory rests this weekend at 321.975 million oz
April 1.2015: we had a huge withdrawal of 1.913 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory 321.975 million oz
March 31.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 323.88 million oz
March 30.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory at 323.888 million oz.
March 27. we had a huge withdrawal of 1.439 million oz leave the SLV/Inventory rests this weekend at 323.888 million oz
March 26.2015; no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz
March 25.2015:no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz
March 24.2015/ we had another withdrawal of 835,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 325.323 million oz
March 23./we had a huge withdrawal of 1.174 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory 326.158 million oz
March 20/ no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
April 2/2015 we had no changes in inventory at the SLV/This weekend inventory rests at 321.975 million oz
end
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 8.2% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 8.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.8%
cash .4%
( April 2/2015)
Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 0.25%!!!!! NAV (April 2/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises -.41% to NAV(April 2/2015
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +0.25%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.41%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:
Gold and silver trading early this morning
(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)
“Faith Many People Have In Gold Is Rising As Instability Increases”
By Mark O’Byrne April 2, 2015 0 Comments
Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on linkedin More Sharing Services
Inflation fears have caused a surge in Russian demand for gold jewellery
Currency depreciation and falling wages weighing on average Russians
Classified ad websites booming as Russians try to raise cash
Ruble has fallen more than 35% against gold in recent months
Ruble today … other fiat currencies tomorrow
Gold in Russian Ruble – 1 Year
Currency depreciation, inflation fears and falling wages are weighing on average Russians and leading them to buy gold and silver bullion and some are making “unusually large purchases” of gold jewellery.
A large Russian chain of jewellery stores, Adamas, with 250 outlets across the country saw “same-store sales climb 40 percent in December,” according to a report from Bloomberg.
The role of gold as a store of value in times of high inflation is well known to Russians. “Many are still scarred by the memories of the ruble devaluation of 1998, which sent the annual inflation rate over 100 percent several months later” according to Bloomberg.
Inflation rose 17% in February against 6% for the same period in 2014. Since the economic crisis in Russia took root gold price in roubles has risen substantially.
Gold in Russian Ruble – 5 Years
Between October and early January gold surged from around 50,000 roubles an ounce to over 87,000 roubles an ounce.
However, with the price of Russia’s main exports – oil and gas – stabilising at lower levels, the rouble has also stabilised following a collapse of 46% last year. Gold has since retraced some of its gains and now trades at 70,000 roubles – up from below 45,000 in June 2014.
However, the crisis does not look like ending any time soon. People in Russia continue to struggle. Real wages have declined 9.9% in February when compared to the same time last year. The Russian government is projecting a 3% contraction in the economy this year.
Bloomberg report on how for Avito – Russia’s largest classified ad website – business is booming as Russians buy and sell used goods to raise cash and make ends meet. It has seen a 43% increase in goods for sale since the crisis began.
Gold in Russian Ruble – 20 Year
Canned food businesses are also thriving – sales are up 10% – suggesting that Russians fear sustained crisis and potential supply chain disruptions. War frequently leases to supply chain disruptions and shortages of food, energy and staples.
Russian people suffered many economic crises over the course of the past century and the protective function that gold can play is understood by many.
“The faith many people have in gold is rising as instability increases,” Adamas executive director Maksim Vainberg said in an e-mail. “Unlike home electronics, gold jewelry can be always resold.”
The depreciation seen in the ruble is likely to be seen by other fiat currencies in the coming months and years as competitive currency devaluations and currency wars intensify.
Click here in order to read GoldCore Insight –
Currency Wars: Bye Bye Petrodollar – Buy, Buy Gold
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,201.50, EUR 1,110.91 and GBP 811.11 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,181.25, EUR 1,099.50 and GBP 800.36 per ounce.
Gold in USD – 1 Month
Gold rose 1.69 percent or $20 and closed at $1,204.20 an ounce yesterday, while silver gained 1.86 percent or $0.31, closing at $16.96 an ounce. Overnight in Singapore, gold prices went sideways prior to very slight gains in London this morning.
Gold is hovering above $1,200 an ounce after the nearly 2 per cent gain yesterday, its biggest single-day rally since January 30.
Gold priced in euros is down 0.4% this morning, underperforming spot after posting it biggest quarterly rise since Q3 2011 in the first quarter, rising 12.7%. This was largely due to a particularly strong performance in January, when it rose 16.2% prior to weakness in February in particular.
Gold ETFs posted their first net inflows in Q1 since Q4 2012 due to heavy inflows in January. Although March saw net outflows of 55.7 tons on dollar price weakness.
Breaking News and Award Winning Research
end
USA Mint sales for silver flying off the shelves:
(courtesy seeking alpha)
U.S. Mint Sales For March: U.S. On Pace To Use All Domestic Mine Production For Silver Eagles
Apr. 2, 2013 9:28 AM ET | 44 comments | Includes: PHYS, PSLV, SLV
Pay Attention GLD, PHYS, PSLV, and SLV investors – the U.S. Mint’s full March sales numbers show the strongest March in terms of silver eagles sold. We will go inside the numbers to show this to investors, but the dichotomy between the silver price and silver sold seems to continue, with strong physical investment demand being opposed by relentless paper sales.
Analyzing the U.S. Mint Sales Numbers
When analyzing sales numbers it is important that investors go past the headlines and dig deep into the true nature of the sales. For brevity we are only showing the last few years of sales, but for doing comparisons we have used data from the beginning of the current bull market in 2001.
To start, let’s take a look at the U.S. Mint sales numbers for silver and gold for March and compare them to the same month in previous years. We are doing a year-over-year comparison because coin sales are very seasonal in nature; to get a fair read we have to compare March to March.
(Click to enlarge)
The first thing that stands out about the numbers is that silver eagle sales continue to be very strong with 3,356,500 ounces sold in March. This was the second largest amount ever sold in March, and the only March that surpassed this number was in 2010 – when silver prices were 40% lower. The year-to-date numbers continue to impress with 14 million silver ounces sold through March – which is 15% higher than the second highest month (March 2011). As a reminder, 2011 was the strongest year for silver eagle sales (and for the silver price) with 39 million silver eagles selling in 2011, and if we continue matching this sales pace, 2013 will be 15% higher than 2011 and reach 45 million silver eagles sold.
To put these numbers in perspective, according to the U.S. Geological Society, the U.S. mined 1050 tons of silver in 2012 (or 33.6 million ounces). If sales maintain their pace of 45 million ounces of silver, the U.S. will use ALL of its mined silver to mint silver eagles and then have to import and additional 350 tons of silver (11.4 million ounces) simply to meet silver eagle demand – leaving no domestically mined silver for anything else. This is a very extraordinary situation!
Gold eagle sales were relatively subdued with 62,000 ounces of gold eagles sold. Not particularly impressive but on the low side of average. Cumulative gold sales of 292,500 ounces were much better, with the third highest amount of year-to-date sales in the current bull market.
On a dollar-basis these sales numbers are shown in the following table.
(Click to enlarge)
In the table above we have used the average monthly London price fix to calculate the dollar value of the month’s bullion sales. Investors can see that monthly silver sales (in terms of the total dollar amount) have almost tied their record-high amount of $99 million dollars worth of sold silver in 2011 and were only $3 million (3% short) of the record-high dollar sold amount. But in terms of the year-to-date numbers, the $432 million dollars worth of sold silver are 15% higher than the previous high set in 2011 (the best year in silver since the 1980 high), and are continuing to impress.
Not only are silver sales impressive, but gold sales year-to-date are also very impressive. With $480 million dollars worth of gold sold year-to-date, it is more than 15% higher than the previous high and that includes a lackluster March.
Conclusion
Based on the U.S. Mint sales numbers, physical gold and silver are being bought at an unprecedented level which, if the pace keeps up, will break both the gold and silver annual totals. Additionally, silver demand should use up all of mine supply, if it keeps up at this current rate, and should force the U.S. Mint to eat up additional silver supply to make up the difference.
Investors have had a rough year investing in gold and silver and the strange divergence between the physical market and the paper market continues. This is an epic tug-of-war between investors, but we believe that the physical end will win as the physical and paper markets continue to duke it out for two reasons. First, physical silver investors are much “stickier” than paper investors because the investor buying $50,000 worth of silver eagles is less likely to sell if the price drops 2, 3, or 4 dollars – while the paper investors can buy and sell on a whim. This is essentially moving silver from weak hands to strong hands and when the paper investors come back into silver the market can reverse rather quickly.
The second reason we believe that the physical investors will win the battle is that the physical market is ultimately what determines price when sales numbers get high enough. As we mentioned, if sales numbers continue then ALL of U.S. mined silver will be used to mint silver eagles and large amounts of silver will have to emerge from secondary sources simply to meet silver eagle demand. Paper markets can set the price short-term but as other users of silver find it harder to source the metal, you may see some interesting things happen in the paper market (and large jumps in price) as paper contracts are used as a way to deliver physical silver. SLV and PSLV investors be patient and make sure you buy some physical silver as a way to hedge your paper position.
end
Gold figures from the USA Mint:
Sales of the gold bullion coins during 2014 totaled 524,500 ounces.
end
(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)
Former BIS official criticizes central bank ‘guidance’ on interest rates
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2015-04-02 01:27. Section: Daily Dispatches
9:27p ET Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In the second part of his interview with the Cobden Center’s Sean Corrigan and Max Rangeley, former Bank for International Settlements official William R. White criticizes what has come to pass for transparency in Western central banking — “guidance” about likely changes in interest rates, which, White says, promotes financial speculation. If only transparency in central banking constituted full disclosure of the interventions central banks already are undertaking in the markets. Part 2 of the interview is posted at Hinde Capital’s Internet site here:
https://hindesightletters.com/blog/william-white-interview-part-ii/
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
The following is no surprise as Obama and Netanyahu friendship is frosty:
(courtesy UKTelegraph/GATA)
Israel applies to become founding member of Asian development bank
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2015-04-02 00:43. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mehreen Khan
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
The Israeli government has submitted its application to become a founding member of a controversial Chinese-led development bank, in a move that is likely to cause consternation in Washington.
Newly re-elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed a letter to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank by the March 31 deadline, according to the country’s foreign ministry.
Israel would become the latest country to join the 40-nation bank, which already includes the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Australia.
“Israel’s membership in the bank will open opportunities for integration of Israeli companies in various infrastructure projects, which will be financed by the bank,” said an Israeli government statement.
The creation of the bank, under the vision of Chinese premier Xi Jinping, has attracted criticism from the United States, which has warned its closest allies against courting better relations with Beijing. …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11509242/Israel-applies-to-…
end
Looks good on Barrick. These guys were the original hedgers and became the best friends with our criminal bankers. Now they are in deep trouble…
(courtesy Reuters/GATA)
Barrick Gold must face U.S. lawsuit over mothballed mine
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2015-04-02 15:48. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jonathan Stempel
Reuters
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
NEW YORK — Barrick Gold Corp. has lost its bid to dismiss a U.S. lawsuit that accuses the world’s largest gold producer of concealing problems at a troubled South American mine and of fraudulently inflating the company’s market value by billions of dollars.
U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin in Manhattan ruled on Wednesday that shareholders can pursue class-action claims that Barrick intended to deceive them about environmental problems afflicting its Pascua-Lama project on the border of Argentina and Chile.
“Though plaintiffs have not alleged a motive, they have sufficiently alleged strong circumstantial evidence of conscious misbehavior or recklessness,” the judge wrote in a 55-page decision. …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/barrick-gold-lawsuit-idUSL2N0W…
end
Kraft manipulating wheat??? and the CFTC files civil charges against them? These CFTC guys have to be the biggest bozos on the planet.
Kranzler through John Brimelow who follows the Indian market better than anybody notes that India may have imported 100 tonnes of gold in the month of March. Gold is on fire in both India and China.
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)
Paper Gold Manipulation And India’s Physical Demand
I had to laugh yesterday when a colleague sent me a news report that the CFTC filed a civil enforecement Complaint against Kraft Foods for manipulating wheat futures. Thank GOD the Government has decided to crack down on wheat futures manipulation. Of course, I would bet that no one in the world other than wheat traders knew that the manipulation was occurring.
Contrast this to the incessant and escalating manipulation of the gold futures market by the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund in conjunction with the NY Fed and the big bullion banks like JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotia Mocatta and Citigroup. Everyone in the precious metals market knows about this manipulation. GATA has exhaustively produced evidence, including FOIA inquiries which produced information from the Fed verifying that gold is manipulated. For some reason the CFTC just can’t see it.
After spiking higher yesterday on the release of very bearish economic and geopolitical reports which signify the continued collapse of the U.S. economy and sphere of global influence (see my earlier post on the AIIB), the gold manipulation cartel took advantage of the fact that India is closed Thursday and Friday and hit the price of gold on non-event news:
The factory orders report for February was released at 10:00 a.m. It came it slighly higher than the consensus expectations BUT the previous month’s report was revised substantially lower from -.2% to -.7%. Net-net the report reflected a significantly weakening U.S. economy, which should be bullish for gold.
As you can see from the graph above, the paper gold market was smashed at 10:00 a.m. EST. 3,326 contracts were unloaded onto the Comex (both the floor and electronically. This was 15x greater than the minute by minute average volume during the previous hour of trading.
The mechanism that enabled the paper manipulators to throw this much paper onto the market was India’s absence from the physical gold market last night and tonight (India’s markets are closed today and tomorrow).
However, on balance, it appears as if India’s demand for gold significantly increased this year, including the expectation that India may have imported 100 tonnes in March. John Brimelow tracks India’s gold market in his “Gold Jottings” subscription report. The major gold dealing city of Ahemedabad is reporting that 20.73 tonnes of gold were imported into that city in March. This was vs. 5 tonnes over the previous three months. As JB says:
There was talk recently that Indian March gold imports as a whole might have doubled over the preceding month to 100 tonnes. A quadrupling of imports by this key Province is something the Bears ought to think about.
It appears to me that something fundamental has changed in the gold market. I believe it’s based on an enormous uptick in demand from China (after its Lunar New Year) and from India. At some point the physical gold market will overwhelm and “break” the ability of the United States to control the price of gold with paper. I believe that this control is beginning to fade now.
end
Bill Holter discusses the insanity with respect to the huge QE orchestrated by the Japanese government through the Bank of Japan:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
Insanity.
Full Definition of INSANITY
1: a deranged state of the mind usually occurring as a specific disorder (as schizophrenia)
2: such unsoundness of mind or lack of understanding as prevents one from having the mental capacity required by law to enter into a particular relationship, status, or transaction or as removes one from criminal or civil responsibility
3 a : extreme folly or unreasonableness
b : something utterly foolish or unreasonable
Of course we could also look at the “real definition” of insanity, “doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result”. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSKBN0MS36S20150401
Or, we could just look at a real life display of insanity to know what it is. Its name is “JAPAN Inc.”! Think of the above definitions, doesn’t Japan either financially fit each and every one of these or at least it’s their leaders hope that they do? Think about what Japan has done over these last 25 years and now doing even more so? They believe by simply printing money, they will be able to prosper and erase all foolishness …with of course more foolishness.
Specifically, Japan embarked on “Abenomics”, their version of American “QE”. Currently the Bank of Japan is buying more treasury debt than their Treasury is issuing. They have also been supporting their stock market since at least 2010, and doing it publicly. At the current pace, the bank of Japan will own ALL ETF’s in little more than two years. Next they will be targeting individual stocks to tuck away and into their portfolio.
There are some very unintended consequences to all of this. If they keep buying sovereign debt, this will continue to reduce the amount of marginable collateral available and at the same time reduce liquidity even further, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-01/bank-japans-liquidity-crisis-one-chart . Could it be that what started out as being a liquidity crises actually ends as a liquidity crises …made worse by their own actions? While on the subject of debt, Japan initially balked at joining the AIIB, then applied …and now apparently has withdrawn. Will they really be one of the very few Western nations not to join the party…and in their own backyard?
Moving away from finance and looking more toward the real world, Japan is considering building a 250 mile long “protective seawall”. This presumably to prevent any more tidal waves from crashing the island. The last one as you remember breached Fukushima and caused a nuclear accident. The response to this accident has been “insane”, they decided to pour sea water on the reactors to keep them cool …and then drain the radioactive water into the ocean. Sushi anyone? Now, it seems they have even “lost” one of the reactors and cannot locate it!
Asking a few common sense questions, would you lend money at virtually zero percent interest to someone who owed over 200% of their income? This is the case with Japan, their debt to GDP ratio is over 200% and they can proudly say “they are the world leader” in this category. The next question, if your proposed debtor told you they wanted to pay you back in a currency they would actively try to debase, would you do it? This of course is the heart of Japan’s grand plan, devalue the yen …undercut your manufacturing competition …increase exports and as a side dish …pay your debt back with a currency worth less …or even worthless! As a side note, Japan has been running trade deficits, so they haven’t even put a dent in their trade problems.
I wanted to bring Japan back into the picture because they have seemed to be hiding. They are a huge problem but have been kept in the background. They are the number three or four economy in the world and are also one of the top three holders of U.S. Treasuries along with China and of course the Federal Reserve. Japan is the epitome of the West’s Ponzi markets with the Bank of Japan monetizing their debt over 100% plus supporting their stock markets.
Ask yourself this question, for what possible reason could the Bank of Japan be buying more treasuries than are being issued? This is easy, but also very dumb. The plan is to outright devalue the yen and also to pump liquidity into their markets by printing and spending the new money on stocks and bonds. So far it has worked as their stock market has been on an upward trajectory with almost no corrections. The problem is this, it has also sucked the liquidity right out of the system and in case you need the connection made, volatility increases as liquidity decreases.
While Japan is not currently considered a “fuse” like the greatest show on Earth (Greece, Ukraine and Austria), they are a very big powder keg! Once one of these little flames start licking out, Japan, because they are so levered and thinly margined could easily go into a Friday close fat and happy …and just not open the following Monday. Regards, Bill Holter
And now for the important paper stories for today:
end
Early Thursday morning trading from Europe/Asia
1. Stocks all higher on major Chinese bourses /Japan and Australia higher as well/yen rises to 11957
1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan slightly strengthens to 6.1970
2 Nikkei up by 277.95 or 1.46%
3. Europe stocks mixed/USA dollar index down to 97.86/Euro rises to 1.0828
3b Japan 10 year bond yield .34% (Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 119.57/
3c Nikkei still barely above 19,000
3d USA/Yen rate now just below the 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI 48.87 Brent 55.59
3f Gold up/Yen up
3gJapan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil down for WTI and down for Brent this morning despite the fact a proxy civil war continues in Yemen
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU
Except Greece which sees its 2 year rate rises to 24.00%/Greek stocks down by .01% today/ still expect continual bank runs on Greek banks.
3j Greek 10 year bond yield: 11.79% (up by 40 basis point in yield)
3k Gold at 1205.50 dollars/silver $16.84
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble down 1/4 rouble/dollar in value) 57.98 , rising even with the lower brent oil price
3m oil into the 48 dollar handle for WTI and 55 handle for Brent
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees hugh risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This scan spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China may be forced to do QE!!
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF
3p Britain’s serious fraud squad investigating the Bank of England/ the British pound is suffering
3r the 7 year German bund still is in negative territory/no doubt the ECB will have trouble meeting its quota of purchases and thus European QE will be a total failure.
3s Eurogroup reject Greece’s bid for more euros of bailout funds as proposal is to vague. The ECB increases ELA by .7 billion euros up to 72.0 billion euros. This money is used to replace fleeing depositors.
3t USA non farm payrolls to be released tomorrow at 8:30
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.84% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3% at 2.44%/yield curve flatten/foreshadowing recession.
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy zero hedge/Jim Reid Deutsche bank)
Futures, Dollar Drift Lower, Oil Slides Ahead Of “Whisper Miss” Payrolls
Unlike yesterday’s vertigo-inducing overnight session, today has been a smooth sea by comparison even if one which has flowed from the top left to the bottom right for now, with futures erasing all of the last minute surge which was HFT programmed to sticksave the S&P just green for the year and then some. It is difficult to pinpoint the catalyst that will be today’s market narrative although with NFP in just over 24 hours, falling on a holiday which will allow S&P futures just 45 minutes of trading after the BLS report hits before closing for the day, and with the weak ADP not to mention the 0.0% Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast, the “whisper” expectation is for a NFP print that will be well below consensus, somewhere in the mid-100,000s if not worse now that the bartender hiring spree is over. The fact that March payrolls have missed on 6 of the last 7 reports probably adds to the dollar weakness, even if a huge miss tomorrow may just be the catalyst Yellen needs to launch the QE4 trial balloon.
A quick look at oil, and the energy complex, shows Brent and WTI crude futures were initially seen lower amid profit taking: at last check WTI was approaching $49 to the downside, around yesterday’s low and accelerating on hope an Iran deal, which almost certainly is not coming, will be announced at some point today. Earlier today we learned that Iran Foreign Minister Zarif said a joint statement expected today, says no agreement yet.
Progress in Greece continues to remain slow and despite the government submitting an updated ‘list’ yesterday, it’s looking increasingly likely that the government won’t receive any sort of early fund disbursement or mini tranche approval ahead of next week’s T-Bill auction and IMF payment. According to Reuters, eurozone officials noted that they received the list from Greece too late for it be discussed at yesterday’s teleconference for deputy finance ministers. It’s looking more likely that talks will resume next week which means in the meantime Greece will need to scrape together the funds to pay next week’s financial maturities as well as pension’s and public sector salaries.
Slower progress is also being felt in the Iran nuclear talks where negotiations have already passed the end-March deadline and appear set to move onto this morning. According to Bloomberg, US Secretary of State John Kerry will stay until at least Thursday morning while yesterday the French foreign minister Fabius returned to talks having previously left. German finance minister Steinmeier acknowledged that a collapse in negotiations is still a possibility but maintained that progress is being made. With a hard deadline for a final agreement set for the end of June, and with few key points appearing to be remaining it could well be that talks are left somewhat unresolved or postponed until a later date, giving both sides longer to firm up on an agreement.
Asian stocks rose after shrugging off yesterday’s negative Wall Street close, led by the Nikkei 225 (+1.46%) after tracking back all of yesterday’s declines. Furthermore, sentiment was lifted by prospects of further easing from the BoJ, after the second-part of the central bank’s Tankan survey showed that large companies see inflation at 1.6% in 5yrs, well off the BoJ’s around end-FY15 2% target. Elsewhere, both the Hang Seng (+0.77%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.41%) trade in the green, the latter in close proximity to its 7yr highs, in an extension of the yesterday’s post Chinese HSBC/Official Mfg. PMIs.
European equities trade relatively mixed to unchanged in what has been a subdued start to the session ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report and Easter weekend. In terms of index-specific moves, the DAX underperforms albeit modestly so after being dragged lower by Deutsche Lufthansa who were subject to a negative broker move and Daimler who are trading ex-div. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 has been buoyed by Marks & Spencer following their pre-market update which saw a beat on expectations. In terms of the latest developments for Greece, markets still await any notable progress in negotiations, although according to banking sources, the ELA for Greek Banks has been increased by EUR 700mln by the ECB, while the Greek Labour Minister has stated the country will repay the IMF next week and has enough cash to last until the end of the month.
For fixed income markets, Bunds were dragged lower in early trade ahead of this morning’s auction from the French Tresor with analysts at IFR noting extra concession being built in for longer-dated taps. In terms of the auction, it was relatively well-received with French paper being dragged modestly lower after the auction as a result of minor-profit-taking, while Bunds returned to relatively unchanged territory with the supply out of the way.
In FX markets, the USD-index has taken a breather from recent gains ahead of the aforementioned US jobs report, subsequently providing a modest boost to some of its major counterparts, with nothing else in terms of fundamental news driving the index. Elsewhere, GBP saw a minor bout of weakness in the wake of the latest UK construction PMI data which fell short of expectations (57.8 vs. Exp. 59.8), while political uncertainty continues to weigh on the UK currency. Finally, the AUD continues to remain softer against its peers ahead of the looming April 7th RBA rate decision, with markets pricing in a 78% probability of a 25bps rate cut.
Iranian foreign minister Zarif stated today that there has been significant inroads in nuclear negotiations however no agreements have been made as yet. This comes as they continue to work towards a technical compromise ahead of a final deal expected in late June this year. (RTRS)
Iraq (2nd largest OPEC producing nation by production) has reported that exports were at 92.401mln/bbl in March, an increase of 15%. (BBG) In other notable news, Flint Hills Corpus Christi west plant in Texas, US, has sent notifications of an unscheduled shutdown affecting several units. (RTRS)
In precious metals markets, both spot gold and silver trade relatively unchanged with gold holding above the USD 1,200/oz level. Elsewhere, Nickel has trimmed its losses for the week amid technical and physical buying stoked by Asian demand after the industrial metal fell to 6-year lows earlier during the week.
In Summary: European shares decline and U.S. equity index futures fall, signaling S&P 500 Index decline for third day, with dollar weakening before U.S. jobs report. Asian equities rise, led by Nikkei 400. European underperforming sectors incl. autos, basic resources; retail, oil & gas stocks outperform ahead of Good Friday holiday. Yields rise on most eurozone 10-yr sovereign notes, while Portuguese yields fall slightly. Brent, gold, copper fall while wheat gains among food commodities. U.S. jobless claims, Bloomberg consumer comfort, ISM New York, factory orders, trade balance, Challenger job cuts due later.
Market Wrap
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2045.5
Stoxx 600 down 0.1% to 398.1
US 10Yr yield down 0bps to 1.86%
German 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.17%
MSCI Asia Pacific up 1.2% to 147.7
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1202.7/oz
Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2%, CAC 40 +0.1%, DAX -0.2%, IBEX -0%, FTSEMIB -0.1%, SMI +0.1%
Asian stocks rise with the Nikkei outperforming and FTSE Straights Times STI, Jakarta Composite underperforming
MSCI Asia Pacific up 1.2% to 147.7
Nikkei 225 up 1.5%, Hang Seng up 0.8%, Kospi little changed, Shanghai Composite up 0.4%, ASX up 0.6%, Sensex up 1.1%
10 out of 10 sectors rise with telecom, industrials outperforming and helath care, materials lagging
Euro up 0.58% to $1.0825
Dollar Index down 0.38% to 97.81
Italian 10Yr yield up 1bps to 1.28%
Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.24%
French 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.47%
S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 406.2
Brent Futures down 0.2% to $57/bbl, WTI Futures down 0.2% to $50/bbl
LME 3m Copper down 0.5% to $6017.5/MT
LME 3m Nickel up 1.3% to $12870/MT
Wheat futures up 0% to 528.8 USd/bu
Bulletin Headline Summary
European equities trade relatively unchanged, while the USD-index takes a pause from recent gains ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report
USD-index trades