Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1184.80 up $15.70 (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.87 up 77 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1183.50
Silver: $16.76
Gold/silver trading: see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.
Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz .
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 243.75 tonnes for a loss of 59 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!
In silver, the open interest fell by 2175 contracts, due to short covering, as yesterday’s silver price was up by 58 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 176,948 contracts. The front month of March fell by 3 contracts to 571 contracts. We are still close to multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.
We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold we had a huge rise in OI as gold was up by $17.70 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 436,331 for a gain of 5994 contracts. Today, surprisingly we again had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
Today, we had no changes at the GLD/ inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 749.77 tonnes
In silver, /SLV we had no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory, remaining at 327.332 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
1, Today we had some short covering in the silver comex with the silver OI falling by 2175 contracts. Gold OI again rises by close to 6000 contracts. Both gold and silver rose nicely today but silver was the standout.
The big news is the continual removal of gold from the comex. From the start of the month 12 tonnes of gold has been removed from the customer side.
The COT report shows the commercials buying gold (and covering shortfalls) in massive quantities. It’s net short position is only 54,000 contracts. It looks like the specs are going to be buried.
In silver, no so. Whoever is the long on silver seems to have everything under control and this is bothering our bankers greatly.
(report by Harvey)
2, Bloomberg comes out with figures that suggest that Greece is still short by 3.7 billion euros for the end of the month financing. Even if they obtain the 1.9 billion euros that Greece is owed, they are still short.
(Bloomberg/zero hedge)
3.On Wednesday, the big news was the dovish report from the FOMC/gold and commodities rose with the Euro and just about all currencies rising against the dollar. Today we saw a repeat action in the currencies following yesterday’s reversal.
(zero hedge)
4. Koos Jansen reports another huge 51 tonnes of gold demanded by China (SGE removals) To date: 508 tonnes of gold.
5. Rig counts continue to plunge yet production is still elevated as shale firms in the USA desperately need the revenue to feed the interest owed on bonds issued.
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/zero hedge)
6.More countries are leaving the USA fold, by joining the new Chinese development bank. Today, Switzerland and Japan are joining.
(zero hedge)
7. Finally, we have a report showing global earnings falling faster than Lehman.
(courtesy zero hedge)
we have these and other stories for you tonight.
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest rose by 5994 contracts from 430,337 up to 436,331 as gold was up by $17.70 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the contract month of March which saw it’s OI fell to 111 for a loss of 14 contracts. We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday so we lost 14 gold contracts or additional 1400 oz will not stand for delivery in this delivery month of March. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 686 contracts up to 203,231. We have less than two weeks before first day notice for the April gold contract month. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 72,040. (Where on earth are the high frequency boys?). The confirmed volume on yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 175,115 contracts. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI fell by 2,175 contracts from 179,123 down to 176,948 despite the fact that silver was up by 58 cents with respect yesterday’s trading and equally astonishing that the volume yesterday was extremely light. We therefore had some short covering. We are now in the active contract month of March and here the OI fell by 3 contracts falling to 571. We had 3 contracts served upon yesterday. Thus we neither lost nor gained any silver contracts standing in this March delivery month. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 19,256 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 44,921 contracts which is good in volume. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.
March initial standings
March 20.2015
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
67,368.132 oz (Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
32,150.000 (1000 Kilobars) Scotia
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
111 contracts (12,500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8 contracts(800 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
114,790.651 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
626,388.9 oz
Today, we had 0 dealer transaction
total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Scotia: 67,368.132 oz
total customer withdrawal: 67,368.132 oz
we had 0 customer deposits:
We had 0 adjustment
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8) x 100 oz or 800 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (111) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:
No of notices served so far (8) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (111) – the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz} = 11,900 oz or .3701 tonnes
we lost 1400 additional ounces that will not stand for delivery in this March contract month.
Total dealer inventory: 658,537.414 oz or 20.48 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.836 million oz. (243.75) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 59.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real. I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.
end
And now for silver
March silver initial standings
March 20 2015:
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,550,429.424 oz (Scotia, HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
9173.26 oz (CNT)
No of oz served (contracts)
0 contracts (15,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
571 contracts (2,855,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2004 contracts (10,020,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
6,349,204.2 oz
Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of HSBC: 1,515,142.034 oz
ii) Out of Scotia; 35,287.39 oz
total withdrawals; 1,550,429.424 oz
we had 0 adjustment
Total dealer inventory: 70.021 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.874 million oz
.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 3 contracts for 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2004) x 5,000 oz = 10,020,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (571) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:
2004 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March(571) -number of notices served upon today (0} x 5000 oz = 12,875,000 oz standing for the March contract month.
we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing in this March delivery month.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com
end
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
march 20/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes
March 19/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory 749.77 tonnes
March 18/ we had a withdrawal of .9 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes
March 17.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes
March 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes
March 13/ we had a small change in gold inventory at the GLD (small withdrawal/probably to pay for fees)/Inventory at 750.67 tonnes
March 12.we had a withdrawal of 2.09 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 750.95 tonnes
March 11.2015: no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 753.04 tonnes
March 10 no report on the GLD tonight/computer down/inventory remains 753.04 tonnes
March 9/ we had another huge withdrawal of 3.38 tonnes of gold from the GLD, no doubt heading for Shanghai/Inventory 753.04 tonnes
March 6/we had a huge withdrawal of 4.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory rests tonight at 756.32/Also HSBC is getting out of the gold business in London and is giving up all of its 7 vaults.
March 20/2015 / we had no changes at GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes
inventory: 749.77 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 749.77 tonnes.
end
And now for silver (SLV):
March 20/ no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 19/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 18/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 17/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 16/no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 13.2015: no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 12: no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 11/no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 10/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz
March 9/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.332 million oz
March 6: huge addition of 1.34 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 727.332 million oz
March 5 no change in inventory/725.992 million oz
March 20/2015 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/ SLV inventory rests tonight at 327.332 million oz
end
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
Not available tonight
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.3% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.1%
cash .5%
( March 20/2015)
Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 0.96%!!!!! NAV (March 20/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to -.13% to NAV(March 20 /2015)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +0.96%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.13%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
At 3:30 pm we get our COT report which gives position levels of our major players.
Due to the big rebound in gold, these numbers are extremely important if accurately supplied by the CME:
Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators
Commercial
Total
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
Long
Short
162,268
109,175
46,560
180,464
236,954
389,292
392,689
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-9,553
19,246
3,303
25,886
-6,966
19,636
15,583
Traders
131
96
79
56
55
227
198
Small Speculators
Long
Short
Open Interest
40,446
37,049
429,738
-816
3,237
18,820
non reportable positions
Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Our large speculators; (it looks like are specs have been burnt again)
Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a huge 9553 contracts from their long side and they are not happy campers tonight
Those large specs that have been short in gold added a monstrous 19,246 contracts to their short side and they are sitting shiva tonight.
Our commercials;
Those commercials that have been long in gold added a monstrous 25,886 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in gold covered 6966 contracts from their short side
Small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in gold covered a smallish 237 contracts from their long side
Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 3818 contracts to their short side.
conclusion:
I strongly believe that the 3 1/2 yr whacking of gold is over.
The commercials are only net short by 56,490 contracts. I am sure that Turd Ferguson will report on this and explain why the game is over. You will see a massive short squeeze on our long speculators.
and now for silver:
(let’s see if silver follows in gold’s footsteps)
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculator
Commercial
Long
Short
Spreading
Long
Short
61,649
37,238
23,631
72,202
102,412
3,683
5,244
142
6,349
3,296
Traders
86
49
43
42
44
Small Speculators
Open Interest
Total
Long
Short
178,524
Long
Short
21,042
15,243
157,482
163,281
-775
717
9,399
10,174
8,682
non reportable positions
Positions as of:
148
122
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
©
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in silver added another 3683 contracts to their long side (in total contrast to gold)
Those large specs that have been short in silver added another 5244 contracts to their short side
Our commercials:
Those commercials that have been long in silver added another 6349
contracts to their long side.
Those commercials that have been short in silver added( ???) another 3296 contracts to their short side.
Small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 775 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver added another 717 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions: our bankers are having real trouble in silver. It seems that they are going to destroy the specs in gold but they are not having their way in silver.
end.
And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:
Gold and silver trading early this morning
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)
Gold Downside $850/oz; Upside Jump to $2,000/oz on ‘Grexit’
By Mark O’Byrne March 20, 2015 0 Comments
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-Capital Economics chart-based analysis sees gold ending year higher at $1,400 per ounce
-Sees a remote possibility of gold falling to $850 per ounce
-A “Grexit” may cause gold to surge to $2,000 per ounce
Julian Jessop from Capital Economics has written an interesting short piece on the company’s expectation for gold prices. It analyses golds performance, in four charts, against the US dollar, US treasury yields and expectations by investors for a Eurozone break-up.
The first chart shows the inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar trade weighted index. As the dollar began its decline in mid-2010 it had a very close inverted relationship with gold.
In July 2011, the dollar began to strengthen again and gold began to decline almost moving in lock-step. When the spike which pushed the dollar to its current bloated valuations began in July of last year gold began its steep decline – in dollar terms.
However, Capital Economics chart shows that this inverted relationship between gold and the dollar broke down in November. The dollar soared from July to the present, spiking 21% against the other major currencies.
Had the relationship continued gold would probably be trading at somewhere between $400 and $800 dollars per ounce. Instead it fell to around the $1,150 mark and has been hovering in that region since.
Capital Economics make the point that the most of the negative commentary regarding gold in recent months misses “the rather bigger point that the gold price has held up remarkably well given the extent of dollar’s move.”
We would add that it is the U.S. dollar which looks precariously out of synch with historical norms and that gold looks relatively comfortable in its current range.
The analysis moves on to the relationship between gold and treasury yields which has also been close this year. Capital Economics speculates that “a 50bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields would appear to be consistent with a $150 fall in the price of an ounce of gold.
They speculate that a 100bp rise in yields this year could therefore push gold down to $850 an ounce. The third chart shows a close relationship between gold and real yields since 2008 which suggests, however, that gold has already fallen disproportionately against yields.
They add that these charts do not consider the fact that miners simply cannot produce gold at such a low price and that buyers in Asia consistently buy dips in price in large volumes.
They also reference geo-political factors – specifically the possibility of a “Grexit”- which is the subject of their final chart.
Chart 4 graphs the gold price against “Investor Expectations of Euro Break-Up”. The data was collated by Senix in Frankfurt.
In mid-2012 investors polled by Senix assigned a probability of over 70% to a Euro break-up. This corresponded with gold surging to its record nominal highs.By around October of last year investors gave a Euro break-up a probability of around 10% as gold was falling through the $1,200 per ounce region.
By this metric it would appear that an 80% expectation of a “Grexit” could push gold up towards the $2,000 mark. However, by mid-January, that negative expectation had risen to over 35% with no discernible corresponding rise in gold prices.
Must Read Guide: Gold is a Safe Haven Asset
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,171.75, EUR 1,096.17 and GBP 794.73 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,164.00, EUR 1,091.52 and GBP 781.10 per ounce.
Gold fell 0.06 percent or $0.70 and closed at $1,170.30 an ounce yesterday, while silver rose 0.44 percent or $0.07 at $16.13 an ounce.
In Singapore, bullion for immediate delivery hovered at at $1,171.20 an ounce near the end of day trading, close to its two week high of $1,177.46 reached yesterday.
The yellow metal is up nearly a percent this week its largest weekly gain since January, after reaching a four month low just prior to the U.S. FOMC policy meeting outcome.
The Fed’s dovish stance on interest rates, caution over the U.S. economic recovery, Yellen’s fear about the dollar’s strength, coupled with a Fed that decreased the Fed Fund rate estimates – all were bullish for precious metals.
The world’s largest ETF, The SPDR Gold Trust, logged its first inflows in a month.
Physical demand from Chinese buyers is seeing Shanghai Gold Premiums at $6-$7 above the benchmark.
Goldman Sachs has joined HSBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Barclays and Scotiabank in the ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA).
The IBA has replaced the almost 100 year old London Gold Fix today and the above banks will set prices electronically.
In London’s late morning trading, spot gold is at $1,173.28 or up 0.12 percent. Silver is $16.20 or up 0.30 percent and platinum is $1,125.39 or up 0.22 percent.
Platinum is trading at almost a $50 discount to gold and The Perth Mint of Australia said it is increasing its production of platinum coins to meet the strong demand.
Updates and Award Winning Research Here
end
A terrific report today from Alasdair Macleod as he talks about the short positions on gold and silver on the comex
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
Market Report: FOMC is boxed in
By Alasdair Macleod
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday was notable for deferring interest rate rises to some unspecified time in the future.
This was realistic, given the continuing strength of the dollar, downward revisions to the inflation outlook, and economic weakness in virtually all industry surveys. The Fed’s obvious problem in deferring a rise in interest rates is the continuing improvement in the unemployment statistics. However these are seriously flawed: for example in February housing starts fell sharply due to the bad weather, yet seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for residential construction jobs were said to rise by 17,200.
It appears the Fed is boxed in, and raising the Fed funds rate would probably only serve to increase excess reserves. If so, the Fed would have to shell out interest payments to the banks at a rate it really cannot afford, given its own balance sheet is geared over 70 times. Markets seem to be slow to understand this problem: if the Fed is unable to raise interest rates (i.e. the Fed funds rate) the dollar itself is at risk.
The immediate effect on precious metal prices was to turn them sharply higher, and Open Interest on Comex has continued to climb. Gold was up a net $16 on the week and silver $0.55. Oversold currencies bounced strongly, but gave back most of their gains yesterday. The set-up is now for a bear squeeze in gold and silver, with the Managed Money category on Comex somewhat short. The chart for gold and its Open Interest is shown below.
Silver has continued to resist moves to the downside, and here the Open Interest has continued its climb as well. Silver has outperformed gold, illustrated in the chart at the head of this report.
Normally falling prices are accompanied by lower Open Interest. The current divergence is therefore indicative of increased buying support, which may be enough to reverse the bear trend of the last three years.
It has been a momentous week, and rarely do so many important events occur. As well as the Fed showing they dare not or cannot raise interest rates, Greece’s negotiations with the other Eurozone members are stranded on the rocks of reality. This was the week when markets suddenly realised the UK faces a general election with considerable political risk so sterling was sold heavily. The UK, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and Switzerland are queuing up with probably Australia and New Zealand to become members of the Chinese and Russian led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, compromising NATO and Pacific alliances. Unfortunately for American hegemony, the political line-up is following an economic interest, and this is a party to which America does not have an invitation.
If all that is not enough, the London gold fix changes this morning after ninety-six years from a committee to a platform run by the International Commodity Exchange. Participants (the approximate equivalent of market makers) announced so far are Barclays, HSBC, Scotiabank, Société Generale and UBS. It is interesting that the American and Chinese houses are holding back.
GoldMoney’s customers sat on their hands ahead of the FOMC announcement, turning buyers after the event, according to our dealing desk.
Wholesale gold bullion deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange amounted to 51.456 tonnes last week, totaling 507.71 tonnes since 1st January.
end
Withdrawals this week from China (which equals demand, excluding sovereign purchases) equals 51 tonnes of gold. To date: 508 tonnes up to March 7.2015:
(courtesy Koos Jansen)
Posted on 20 Mar 2015 by Koos Jansen
SGE Withdrawals 51t In Week 10, YTD 508t.
Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold exchange (SGE), which equal Chinese wholesale gold demand, in week 10 (March 9 – 13) accounted for 51 tonnes. Year to date total withdrawals have reached 508 tonnes.
Chinese wholesale gold demand can be slightly less than what is disclosed because of withdrawals from the Shanghai International Gold Exchange. My best estimate is SGE withdrawals could be 3 tonnes less at 505 tonnes. However, I have no hard evidence any foreign traders are withdrawing gold from the Shanghai International Gold Exchange. I’ve made an inquiry at the SGE if they can shed some light on this. Hopefully, next week I know more.
Week 10 was a clear example of a falling gold price in renminbi, which spurred the Chinese to purchase gold at the SGE and subsequently withdraw from the vaults.
BullionStar has a new unique feature online; a chart widget to measure anything in anything (stock indexes, precious metals, fiat currencies, commodities and stocks). For example Gold in Euros, the S&P 500 in Crude Oil, or US dollars in Renminbi. The next screenshot is an example of the price of gold in renminbi in week 10, 2015.
Click here to use the widget!
Because of the mechanics of the Chinese gold market,
Import + mine + scrap = SGE withdrawals
And thus
Import = SGE withdrawals – mine – scrap
Over the first ten weeks in 2015 domestic mine supply has been roughly 85 tonnes, SGE scrap supply (at a yearly rate of 250 tonnes) approximately 45 tonnes.
508 withdrawals – 85 mine – 45 scrap = 378 import
From January 1 until March 13, in just over months, China has imported an estimated 378 tonnes.
A rough estimate suggests SGE withdrawals are set to reach 600 tonnes in Q1; net import 450 tonnes, domestic mining 100 tonnes and scrap (gold-for-gold and gold-for-cash) 50 tonnes. Depending on what metric used, Chinese gold demand will be somewhere in between 570 and 600 tonnes. Let’s wait what the World Gold Council (WGC) will publish as Chinese gold demand Q1. Probably about half of this, just like they did last year.
While the WGC is understating Chinese gold demand, it’s allegedly overstating Vietnamese gold demand. I came across an article titled; Experts doubt WGC’s report on Vietnam’s gold consumption:
VietNamNet Bridge – The World Gold Council (WGC) has reported that Vietnam consumed 69.1 tons of gold in 2014. However, Vietnamese experts disagree with that assessment.
“It is unclear where WGC sought information to make report. But I can say for sure that the total revenue of all Vietnamese gold companies could not make up such a figure,” he said.
Trong said a large jewelry company needs about 200 kilos of materials a month to make jewelry.
The number of large jewelry companies can be counted on one hand or two, and the actual volume of gold materials is not high.
Other goldsmith shops mostly process finished products they buy from customers, and do not have demand for gold materials.
“12.7 tons of jewelry gold consumed in 2014 was reasonable, if counting the jewelry illegally imported from China. The jewelry market last year was very gloomy,” he noted.
“The remaining 56.4 tons of gold was listed as bullion gold for investment. However, it’s unclear where the imported bullion gold has gone,” he said.
Koos Jansen
E-mail Koos Jansen on: koos.jansen@bullionstar.com
end
Ronan Manly on the London gold fix
(courtesy Ronan Manley/Bullionstar)
Ronan Manly: London gold trading data disappears as new fix mechanism begins
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2015-03-20 02:11. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:08a SGT Friday, March 20, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold researcher and GATA consultant Ronan Manly reports that much data about gold trading in London is apparently about to be hidden as the daily London gold price fixing mechanism is changed. Manly’s commentary is headlined “London Gold Fixing Website www.goldfixing.com Taken Offline, Chairperson in the Shadows” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/london-gold-fixing-website…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
(courtesy Ben Protess/New York Times/GATA)
Bank of New York Mellon will settle currency trade case for $714 million
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2015-03-20 01:58. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ben Protess
The New York Times
Thursday, March 19, 2015
The Bank of New York Mellon will pay $714 million to settle accusations that it cheated government pension funds and other investors for more than a decade, federal and state authorities announced on Thursday. It is part of a deal requiring the bank to dismiss some employees and make fuller public disclosures of its foreign exchange operation.
The settlement resolves lawsuits filed in 2011 by Preet Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, and Eric T. Schneiderman, the New York attorney general.
The authorities accused the bank of assuring clients that they would receive the best possible rate when executing a currency trade. In reality, the authorities said, the bank did just the opposite: It provided clients “prices that were at or near the worst interbank rates,” enabling the bank to make extra cash during the 2008 financial crisis. …
… For the remainder of the report:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/business/dealbook/bank-of-new-york-mel…
end
Dave Kranzler on the new gold fix:
I agree with him that it will not change until China enters the fix:
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)
The “New” LBMA Gold Fix Is Just As Rigged As The Old One
March 20, 2015Financial Markets, Gold, Market Manipulation, Precious Metalsbullion banks, gold fix, ICE, LMBA
As my undergrad English major advisor used to say: “This is old wine in a new bottle.” Meaning, you can dress up a pig but underneath the fancy clothes it’s still a pig. The “new” London gold fix will enable the big bullion banks to continue rigging the paper gold market and looting investor money. They are now emboldened to do it in broad daylight and without masks.
This applies wholeheartedly to the “new” LBMA fix. Given that the reporting of the GOFO rates has been eliminated and the “new” price data has fancy lipstick but is even less informative than the LBMA’s old data reporting, the “new” London gold price fix is at least – if not more – corrupted than the old fix.
As I expected, the “new” LBMA gold fix will even more opaque than the previous process, despite the appearance of more transparency. Four banks have already been named: Scotia, HSBC, SocGen and Barclays. Seen those names before? Here’s a brief update: LINK.
Scotia is one of the most corrupt bullion banks and one of the primary paper manipulators of gold and silver on the Comex. If you keep your bullion at Scotia, get it out. If you read thru custodial documents available from funds who “safekeep” metal at Scotia, you see that there’s a good chance your gold and silver bars have been hypothecated.
HSBC – not much needs to be said there. HSBC has been one of the most frequently prosecuted and fined banks for market manipulation in areas other than precious metals. Sure, HSBC rigs the trading and its books in every other business line it operates but not precious metals…Of course, there is the issue of HSBC closing its NYC “retail” vaults in 2009 and its London “retail” vaults this year…
SocGen and Barclays – both primary LBMA bullion banks who participate openly in market rigging and gold leasing.
We don’t know who the last two banks will be, but up to this point the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) – which will administer and manage the “new” gold fix process – has indicated that a Chinese bank will not be involved.
The likely candidates to fill the remaining two spots include JP Morgan and Citibank. I don’t think anything more needs to be said about this matter. The crooks who control the paper gold trading markets in London and NYC have been enabled to continue their illegal trading activities and looting of investor money.
Ronan Manly of Bullionstar has written an excellent description of the “new” gold fix: London Gold Fixing
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And now for the important paper stories for today:
Early Friday morning trading from Europe/Asia
1. Stocks generally higher on major Chinese bourses (only India’s Sensex and Hang Seng lower)/yen falls to 121.07
1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan falls to 6.2062
2 Nikkei up 83.66 or 0.43%
3. Europe stocks all in the green/USA dollar index down to 98.91/Euro rises to 1.0695
3b Japan 10 year bond yield .33% (Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 121.07/
3c Nikkei still above 19,000
3d USA/Yen rate now above 121 barrier this morning
3e WTI 44.95 Brent 53.78
3f Gold up/Yen down
3gJapan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil up for both WTI and down for Brent this morning.
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU
Except Greece which sees its 2 year rate rise to 22.83%/Greek stocks up by a huge 2.75%today/ still expect continual bank runs on Greek banks.
3j Greek 10 year bond yield: 11.99% (up by 70 basis point in yield)
Greece needs to pay 2 billion euros by today.
3k Gold at 1172.00 dollars/silver $16.19
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble down 1/3 rouble/dollar in value) 60.35 with the lower brent price
3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 53 handle for Brent
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees hugh risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This scan spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China may be forced to do QE!!
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF
3p Britain’s serious fraud squad investigating the Bank of England/ the British pound is suffering
3r the 7 year German bund still is in negative territory/no doubt the ECB will have trouble meeting its quota of purchases and thus European QE will be a total failure.
3s Greece must submit new reforms quickly (see zero hedge story below)
3t Bloomberg calculates Greece’s shortfall in March at 3.5 billion euros.
(see zero hedge story below)
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.96% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3% at 2.52%/yield curve flatten/foreshadowing recession.
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
Calm Ahead Of Today’s Quad-Witching Which May Lead To Vol Surge
Quad-witching days are volatile on normal days, so in an environment of virtually zero liquidity, in which the market careens from one extreme to another simply based on whether the Fed utters one single word, in which volatility across asset classes is soaring, and in which it is all about igniting algo momentum, today’s quadruple withicng should be memorable, which is good since there is virtually no macro data today to speak of.
As Nanex reminds us, during last year’s quad witching on March 21, 2014, at 15:45:00, a new record was set for most trades in 1 second in NMS stocks (NYSE, NY-ARCA, NY-MKT and Nasdaq listed stocks and ETFs – approximately 8,000 symbols). The 3rd and 4th most active seconds were also set, at 15:50:00 and 15:55:00 respectively. The 2nd most active second was set at 10:00:00 on September 1, 2011. Today may surpass it.
If quad witching proves to be a dud, then there is always Europe’s partial solar eclipse to fall back on: an eclipse which may strain and test Europe’s conventional electricity backup grid as suddenly a substantial portion of Europe’s alternative electricity generator grid is about to go, pardon the pun, dark.
In the final trading session of the week, European equities trade in positive territory with the latest developments regarding the ongoing Greek/Eurogroup negotiations relatively upbeat thus far.
Yesterday it was reported that following emergency talks with German and French leaders, Greece agreed to submit a reform list in coming days, with Greek PM Tsipras saying that Greece will not have to take recessionary measures. This has subsequently bolstered sentiment so far with accompanying comments from various European premier’s conveying that progress is being made. There was an article run in German tabloid Bild saying that Schaeuble expects a Greek exit from the EUR, however, the market isn’t paying these uncited reports much credence with German Chancellor Merkel in favour of keeping the troubled nation in the currency union.
Here is DB’s take on last night’s Greek events:
Over in Greece meanwhile, following their meeting at the EU summit, we heard from various European leaders shortly after urging more progress from the Greek side to speed up the work around reform measures. The EU’s Juncker, Tusk and Dijsselbloem issued a joint statement following the meeting saying that there is a commitment to speed up the work and that Greece is expected to present full reform measures within days. German Chancellor Merkel was noted as saying that she was disappointed by progress so far and that the next list will be ‘full’ on details. French PM Hollande reiterated the need to speed up progress and said that pressure was put on Tsipras to act urgently. Greece’s Tsipras was seemingly upbeat meanwhile, saying that all sides were in agreement to restore financing to Greece and that talks are back on track after the process had been somewhat derailed. The push for progress is unsurprising in the face of a deteriorating liquidity position for Greece. Yesterday Greek press Ekathimerini reported that bank deposit outflows were estimated at around €350-400m on Wednesday following the chatter around potential capital controls. The outflows were the most in a single day since February 20th.
Elsewhere, with newsflow particularly light fixed income markets trade relatively unchanged with a lack of upcoming tier 1 US/Eurozone data points.
Nikkei 225 (+0.4%), Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+1.4%) all swung between losses and gains, with the latter on course to post its biggest weekly gain in 3-months. Heading into the European open, the Shanghai Comp ga