Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1200.60 down $3.40 (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.13 down 13 cents (comex closing time)
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1200.00
silver $16.24
We have many stories to bring your way.
However first..your data from gold and silver trading together with data from the comex…
Gold/silver trading: see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.
Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:
The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz. Silver comex registered 39 notices for 195,000 oz .
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 260.08 tonnes for a loss of 43 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest rose by 1278 contracts even though Tuesday’s silver price was down by 15 cents. The total silver OI continues still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 164,018 contracts. The front month of March contracted by 10 contracts.
We had 39 notices served upon for 195,000 oz.
In gold we had a good rise in OI even though gold was down by $3.70 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 405,124 for a gain of 97 contracts. Today, surprisingly we again had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
Today, inventory stays at 760.80 tonnes/ i.e. no change
In silver, /SLV we had a small deposit of 328,000 oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 326.118 million oz
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are today’s comex results:
The total gold comex open interest rose by 97 contracts today from 405,027 up to 405,124 despite the fact that gold was down by $3.70 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the contract month of March which saw it’s OI fall by 10 contracts down to 153. We had 1 notice filed on yesterday so we lost 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will not stand for delivery in March. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3,251 contracts down to 257,573. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 54,920. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 174,001 contracts even with mucho help from the HFT boys. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by 1278 contracts from 162,740 up to 164,018 with silver down by 15 cents with respect to Tuesday’s trading. We are now in the active contract month of March and here the OI fell by 257 contracts down to 1,136. We had 200 contracts served yesterday. Thus we lost 47 contracts or 235,000 oz will not stand. The estimated volume today was poor at 12,603 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair (regular plus access market) at 44,654 contracts. We had 39 notices filed for 195,000 oz today.
March initial standings
March 4.2015
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
153 contracts (15,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1 contracts(100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
16,590.00 oz
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 dealer deposits:
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total customer withdrawal: nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit:
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 0 adjustment
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.
To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1) x 100 oz or 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (153) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:
No of notices served so far (1) x 100 oz or ounces + {OI for the front month (153) – the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz} = 15,400 oz or .4790 tonnes
we lost 900 oz of gold that will not stand in this March contract month.
Total dealer inventory: 814,793,315 oz or 25.34 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8.385 million oz. (260.08) tonnes)
Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 43 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real. I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.
end
And now for silver
March silver initial standings
March 4 2015:
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
211,816.530 oz (CNT,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
592,542.700 oz (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts)
39 contracts (195,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1097 contracts (5,485,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1632 contracts (8,160,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
525,445.4 oz
Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawal: nil oz
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Scotia: 592,542.700 oz
total customer deposit: 592,542.700 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT: 151,088.660 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 60,727.87 oz
total customer withdrawal: 211,816.530 oz
we had 0 adjustment
Total dealer inventory: 68.850 million oz
Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 177.79 million oz
.
The total number of notices filed today is represented by 39 contracts for 195,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1632) x 5,000 oz = 8,160,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (1136) and the number of notices served upon today (39) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:
1632 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March (1136) -number of notices served upon today (39} x 5000 oz = 13,645,000 oz standing for the March contract month.
we lost 47 contracts or 235,000 oz will not stand for delivery in March.
for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:
http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com
end
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:
i) demand from paper gold shareholders
ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
vs no sellers of GLD paper.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
March 4/ no change/inventory 760.80 tonnes
March 3 we had another 2.69 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the GLD. Inventory is now 760.80 tonnes.
March 2 we had 7.76 tonnes of withdrawal from the GLD today and this physical gold landed in Shanghai/Inventory 763.49 tonnes
feb 27.2015 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes
Feb 26. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes
Feb 25. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes
Feb 24.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes
Feb 23.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes
Feb 20/we had another good addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold into the GLD. Inventory 771.25 tonnes
Feb 19/ a huge addition of 1.5 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory 769.46
Feb 18/ a small withdrawal of .3 tonnes/no doubt to pay for fees/Inventory 767.96 tonnes
Feb 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes
March 4/2015 / no change in inventory
inventory: 760.80 tonnes.
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).
GLD : 760.80 tonnes.
end
And now for silver (SLV):
March 4 a slight reduction of 126,000 oz of silver/SLV inventory at 725.992 (probably to pay for fees)
March 3 a small deposit of 328,000 oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory at 726.118 million oz.
March 2/ no change in silver inventory tonight; 725.734 million oz
Feb 27.2015 no change in silver inventory tonight: 725.734 million oz
Feb 26. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 725.734 million oz
Feb 25. no changes in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz
Feb 24.we had an addition of 1.435 million oz of silver to the SLV/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz
Feb 23 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz
Feb 20 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz
Fen 19/ we had a huge addition of 4.082 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 324.299 million oz
Feb 18.2015/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz
Feb 17 no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz
March 4/2015 a small reduction of 128,000 oz of silver into the SLV/SLV inventory registers: 325.992 million oz
end
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.7% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.0%
cash .5%
( March 4/2015)
Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV
Sprott NAV not available at press time/I will adjust later tonight.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 2.70%!!!!! NAV (March 4/2015)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to +.30% to NAV(March 4 /2015)
Note: Sprott silver trust back into positive territory at +2.70%.
Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.30%
Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
end
And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:
Gold and silver trading early this morning
(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)
Canada’s Central Bank Orders End To Defacing of Debasing Canadian Dollar
By Mark O’Byrne March 4, 2015 0 Comments
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- From “Spocking” in Canada to overtly political imagery in Greece, paper currency is growing in popularity
- Outpouring of affection for Leonard Nimoy has inspired the phenomenon of “Spocking” in Canada
- Greek artist Stefanos alters Canadian, Euro and Australian notes to make deliver political message
- Defacing notes is illegal and a criminal offence in Canada, the EU, U.S. and most countries
- Disgruntled citizens defaming already debasing currencies … this may catch on …
The death of Leonard Nimoy inspired a wonderful outpouring of affection across the world, and possibly beyond.
Nimoy was best known for playing the role of Dr. Spock in Star Trek, possibly the most beloved character in the sci-fi genre for several generations.
From our point of view, with our interest in the nature and history of money, the most interesting of these expressions is the resurgence of the phenomenon of “Spocking” in Canada.
“Spocking” is the act of defacing the Canadian $5 note by superimposing the likeness of the half-Vulcan doctor onto the image of former prime minister, Sir Wilfred Laurier. There is quite a resemblance and therefore not much art is required to transform the former prime minister into the beloved Dr. Spock.
The trend, like all the most entertaining forms of mischief, is apparently illegal. That has not deterred Canadians who for years have enjoyed replacing the unfortunate Sir with the likeness of Spock or Alan Rickman’s portrayal of professor Snape in the Harry Potter movies.
Enough Spocking was being done that the Canadian central bank felt compelled to act and said:
Yes, it’s legal, but it’s just not a very nice or Canadian thing to do. “Bank spokeswoman Josianne Menard said Tuesday that scribbling on bills is inappropriate because it defaces a Canadian symbol and source of national pride,” the Associated Press reports.
The practice of defacing paper notes will come to an end in November when the Bank of Canada will issue new plastic notes with a different image of Laurier.
Meanwhile in Greece a different, overtly political, form of graffiti has started to emerge. An artist known as Stefanos has been defacing Euro notes with images of little human figures in a painfully bleak depiction of life in Greece under austerity.
The €100 note is particularly poignant and shows an apparent suicide by hanging while bystanders, including a child look on.
The €10 seems to depict a black hole sucking people into it – a possible reference to the Euro itself and the seemingly unending extraction of wealth from working people in servicing a debt from which they derived no benefit.
Other images refer to violent crime, police harassment and possibly football hooliganism. The grim reaper is shown on the €100 note and the €50 note features a figure who has been stabbed in the back while another looks on from the shadows – a possible reference to the betrayal of the people of Greece by their own elites.
It is a criminal offence to deface the Euro in a manner that is deemed offensive, whatever that means. Cited as examples in law are pornographic or violent imagery.
Shop-keepers and lenders are obliged by law to accept legal tender and cannot refuse a note that has been defaced.
Stephanos defaced the notes, photographed them to circulate on social media and then released them back into circulation in the hope that the universal imagery would communicate a message across European state and linguistic boundaries.
It is an interesting phenomenon and bears watching. We expect the trend to grow in popularity as disaffection with the euro, the dollar and other paper currencies builds.
What if this sort of thing catches on and people begin to deface debt-based and increasingly debased paper currencies across Europe and the world? It could be a further factor leading to the penny dropping and a tipping point being reached regarding the intrinsically worthless nature of paper and digital currencies today.
Updates and Award Winning Research Here
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,204.25, EUR 1,082.67 and GBP 785.19 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,207.75, EUR 1,081.20 and GBP 786.14 per ounce.
Gold fell 0.19% percent or $2.30 and closed at $1,203.20 an ounce yesterday, while silver slipped 0.67% or $0.11 to $16.26 an ounce.
Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,204.74 an ounce in late Asian trading. Gold in Singapore climbed higher after two days of losses, limited by the U.S. dollar’s strength ahead of key economic data.
Outflows from SPDR, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, showed a small dip of 0.35 percent to 760.80 tonnes yesterday. Monday the fund lost eight tonnes – its largest loss this year.
Market players are keeping a close watch on U.S. economic data for signs that the economy is doing well.
The European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting is set for Thursday and it is expected that Draghi will begin the €1 trillion QE program of bond purchases this month. This monetary experiment is very bullish for gold – especially in euro terms.
Gold in the late morning in Ireland is trading at $1,254 or off 0.01 percent. Silver is $16.32 or down 0.01 percent and platinum is $1,178.89 or off 0.46 percent.
Breaking News and Updates Here
end
(courtesy Times of India)
Gold has worked for Indians, billionaire investor Thomas Kaplan says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2015-03-04 13:39. Section: Daily Dispatches
By the Press Trust of India
via The Times of India, Mumbai
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/gold-has-worked…
NEW DELHI — Telling Indians not to buy gold is like asking Americans not to consume liquor, billionaire investor Thomas Kaplan has said.
Appreciating Indians’ appetite for gold, Kaplan said the precious metal has historically been a very good way to store wealth for India and pointed out that China is “specifically and overtly” encouraging its people to buy gold.
India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world and imports as much as 800-1000 tonnes of gold each year
“I think trying to ban gold or to ban gold imports, you know, would have about as much success as trying to tell Americans not to drink alcohol. And prohibition did not work and eventually someone had to accept the reality,” he told PTI on the sidelines of a CII event when asked whether India’s efforts to curb gold imports would work.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Budget 2015-16 had proposed three schemes, including redeemable gold bonds and monetisation scheme, to curb gold imports and monetise large stocks of the precious metal lying idle in the country.
“The price of gold has shown that those Indians who purchased these metals over the years can look back and they can say, you know what, it worked. So, that’s what known as positive reinforcement.
“If you tell people, particularly really smart people like Indians that they can’t do something that has given them gratification for a very, very long time. They will find another way to get what they want,” Kaplan, widely known as gold evangelist, said.
Referring in China, another huge consumer of precious metals, Kaplan said: “I was is Beijing a couple of weeks ago. The Chinese government, specifically and overtly, is encouraging its people to buy gold. They want to buy gold. China is importing almost as much gold as the world’s annual production and they like India are sucking it out of West.”
Kaplan, who figures in the Forbes 2015 list of world’s billionaires, said that when people tell him gold and silver are commodities, he counters them saying they are currencies.
“In the world of massive money printing, they can’t be debased. Gold and silver are the only financial assets that you can own that do not represent someone else’ liability. When I used to explain that a decade ago, people found that whole concept to be very esoteric,” he added.
Referring to the situation faced by Bank of Greece and the Royal Bank of Scotland, Kaplan said with these precious metals one does not have to worry about bankruptcy.
“Then the question is: What is the long-term price? I happen to be bullish and so I believe that the positive reinforcements that the Indians have on precious metals is going to continue,” he added.
end
Dave Kranzler of IRD on what he believes is going on behind the gold/silver scene:
(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)
The Foul Stench Of Desperation
March 4, 2015Financial Markets, Gold, Market Manipulation, U.S. EconomyHousing bubble, retail sales, subprime bubble
Something is really wrong behind the scenes. The insiders are exhibiting an extreme degree of desperation to keep the price of gold and silver from trading freely and to keep the stock market from plunging. Every time the S&P 500/Dow are in a free-fall, one of the big HFT electronic commications networks (ECNs) mysteriously “breaks” (source: zerohedge): click to enlarge
Today the S&P 500 was down 16 points and falling quickly. Then the BATS ECN announced that it had to suspend trading in all of its trade routing systems to the NYSE. It just so happens that BATS is one of the largest, if not the largest, electronic communication networks in the world. This happens every time the stock market goes into cliff-dive mode. How come it NEVER happens when the S&P 500 is going parabolic to the upside?
The economy is starting to fall apart. The plunging price of oil is just one indicator. Retail sales down nearly 1% two months in a row with one of the months being December, which is historically the best month of the year for retail sales. DOWN 1%. Declines in retail sales are not very common – especially back-to-back monthly declines just under 1%. It means that consumers are not buying. They are not buying because they have run out of money.
Revolving credit balances have been rising steadily now since 2011. The rise has begun to accelerate (source: St Louis Fed, click to enlarge):
Contrary to popular Wall Street myth, consumers don’t take out an increasing amount of high-cost credit card debt when they feel “good” about the economy. Since the mid-2000’s people have been using credit card debt increasingly to pay for necessities: food, gasoline, etc. Many will even put their monthly mortgage payment on their credit card. This is part of the dynamic that lead to the credit market collapse in 2008. Banks are all too willing to issue them to everyone with less than stellar credit ratings because they can charge 15% (current average APR) on money for which they are borrowing from depositors for almost 0%.
How do we know that consumers don’t “feel good” about the economy? Because if you review all of recent macro economic surveys, you’ll find that they all have sub-indices which measure “sentiment” or “expectations.” Those sub-indices in particular are plunging.
I don’t know how much longer “they” can keep up this absurd charade, but I know when that when they lose control the collapse will be spectacular.
end
Bill Holter delivers another dandy commentary
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
“Gold has never been more valuable than it is today!”
While doing an interview a few months back with Turd Ferguson at www.tfmetals.com , he made the comment “gold has never been more valuable than it is today”. This is so true and correct, I’d like to break it down into small pieces because from a historical standpoint there is no comparison to where we are today.
OK, I guess it would be best to first clear the air and address those who will say Turd’s statement is wrong because they paid $1,700 for their gold and are sitting on “losses”. Yes, from the standpoint of what gold will “fetch”, gold is “down”. Were you to sell it today or barter for a piece of real estate, it will take more ounces today than it would have two or three years ago. I get it and am not a stu-nod.
The key word in the statement is “valuable” with the root word being “value”. The other key word is “today”. I bounced writing this piece off my mentor and he said “very good quote but I’m not sure it is true”. He went on to the examples of France just prior to the Revolution and to Germany prior to and during WW II. This is very true if you were French in 1790 or a Jew living in Germany but …like the snotty kid in grade school who likes to correct his teacher, I pointed out the obvious. In these two examples, only were the French and German Jews affected. Today, everyone on the planet will be affected one way or another because the dollar’s global pervasiveness and reach. As for “value”, the key is to retain value. Gold is THE only money all throughout history to have done this. Gold is THE only money on the planet that cannot default and THE only money which cannot be debased (though this has been attempted 24/7 by central banks forever).
Digging into this deeper, even with many countries trying to distance themselves, the U.S. dollar is still a more widespread and all engulfing reserve currency than any before it (with the exception of gold). The dollar is held as “reserves” in central banks and sovereign treasuries all over the world. A “change” in the dollar for better or worse will directly and indirectly affect more countries, more institutions and more people than any previous reserve currency. We live in a world where everyone is “in bed” so to speak with everyone else. We live in a world of instant information made available by computers to any and all locations on the planet so a hiccup anywhere in the world will circle the globe in less than 24 hours. My point is this, how long would it have taken a devaluation in Dutch or Spanish reserve currencies to be known and understood 300 or 400 years ago? The answer is YEARS rather than minutes or even seconds today.
The point Mr. Ferguson was trying to make is the current scenario is fraught with more risk (and not just financial) than any time all throughout history. Dollar (reserve currency) risk? Yes of course, but the truth is, it’s about “risk” in everything. Never before has the entire world been as levered as it is today. Never have central banks been more levered than the grossest and most bloated financial institutions in the world. Never before have scores of sovereign treasuries been collectively insolvent as they are today. Never before have bond prices been so high, yields so low and financial ratios so poor. Collective PE ratios and “rent to price” of real estate have never been where they are today. Derivatives never existed and the “rules” were never changed to the extent they are today. Think about it, have banks ever before in history been allowed to suspend real accounting mark to market or not report losses due to “national security”? Please do not tell me this was common in communist regimes because they no longer even exist, they have already failed and were not the center of anything. The Soviet Union went down the path of falsely reporting economic numbers, bending reality and living under “laws” that applied to some but not others, where did it get them?
If you understand this very basic premise, “risk of everything” has never been greater than it is today then you understand the phrase “gold is more valuable today than ever before”. Think of it this way, if you absolutely knew 100% that an unstoppable forest fire or flood was going to strike your house, how “valuable” would your fire or flood insurance be? Would you be upset if you paid your premium and it took longer than a year for the fire or flood to arrive? Would you ever cancel your insurance policy at the end of the year, (still knowing a disaster was coming) and scoff at it while saying “I’m not ever doing that again, I lost money”?
Do you see? Mathematically, our fiat currency system will fail. Mathematically, the current system of “debt equals growth” will fail. This is not “Bill Holter’s opinion”, this is fact because it is math! In the above hypothetical flood or fire, they can never be known 100% in advance. This is not so with our monetary system. The way our monetary system is set up we CAN know with 100% certainty it will fail, we just don’t know “when”. It is the “when” part that has people so discouraged. I am here to tell you it does not matter “when” this happens, what matters is whether you have your monetary insurance policy in place …or not.
We know the central banks have every motive in the world to suppress the price of gold. We have seen several times where 50% of global gold production has been sold in less than two trading days, it is clear that actions have been taken to suppress the price. Can we do anything about it? Will “regulators” do anything about it? Of course not. However, if you understand this risk of financial collapse has never been higher than it is today then you then you know your insurance has never been more necessary or valuable. This risk will ultimately be borne out in the failure of what we use as money. If you are a student of history and understand what has acted as “financial insurance” time and time again throughout recorded history …then you understand what is meant by “GOLD HAS NEVER BEEN MORE VALUABLE THAN IT IS TODAY!”. This is not rocket science, chart mumbo jumbo or opinion, this is 2+2=4 logic, defy it or try to time it at your own risk! Regards, Bill Holter
end
And now for the important paper stories for today:
Early Wednesday morning trading from Europe/Asia
1. Stocks mostly lower on major Asian bourses / the yen rises to 119.60
1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/ yuan strengthens to 6.2712
2 Nikkei down 111.56 or 0.59%
3. Europe stocks mostly lower // USA dollar index up to 95.67/
3b Japan 10 year yield huge rise to .41%/ (Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 119.60/everybody watching the huge support levels of 117.20 and that level acting as a catapult for the markets.
3c Nikkei still above 17,000/
3e The USA/Yen rate still below the 120 barrier this morning/
3fOil: WTI 50.77 Brent: 60.60 /all eyes are focusing on oil prices. This should cause major defaults as derivatives blow up.
3g/ Gold up /yen up;
3h/ Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion usa dollars worth of bonds per MONTH or $1.3 trillion
Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa/thus bond purchases of 26% of GDP
3i Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt (see Von Greyerz)
3j Oil up this morning for WTI and down for Brent
3k Surprise rate cut in India as global economy contracts
3l Greek 10 year bond yield :9.51% (up 2 basis points in yield)
3m Gold at $1205.50 dollars/ Silver: $16.33
3n USA vs Russian rouble: ( Russian rouble up 1/2 rouble / dollar in value) 61.63!!!!!!.
3 0 oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent
3p More easing in China/also they are trying to lessen their real estate bubble
3Q SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again driving down the SF/window dressing/Swiss rumours of intervention to keep the soft peg at 1.05 Swiss Francs/euro and major support for the Euro.
3r USA justice department investigating 10 major USA banks in the manipulation of gold and silver pricing
3s European service PMI coming in lower than expected/bourses lower
3t Some Greek treasury bills may not roll over today/Greece may ask for larger treasury bill limit
4. USA 10 yr treasury bond at 2.13% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3% (2.72%!!!!)/yield curve flattens/foreshadowing recession
5. Details: Ransquawk, Bloomberg/Deutsche bank Jim Reid
Market Wrap: Futures Slide Despite Latest Central Bank Easing Blitz
Just like yesterday, it has – so far – been mostly about Asia in the overnight session, where as reported previously, we got the latest central bank engaging in an “unexpected” rate cut, after Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan cut rates in an unscheduled move days after the government agreed for the first time to give the central bank a legal mandate to target inflation. This was India’s second rate cut in 2 months, and yet despite the Sensex surging to a all time high over 30,000, it subsequently ended up closing red on the day, down -0.7%, despite the Indian currency sliding 0.4% to 62.1463 to a dollar. Is the half-life of thany incremental rate cut in an unprecedented barage of global central bank easing now less than a day?
It wasn’t only India: next door in China, the PBOC increased the maximum amount of overnight and 7-day loans that its local branches can provide to financial institutions by 220 billion yuan. Cumulative amount PBOC’s local branches can provide in overnight and 7-day loans is now 340b yuan, according to Bloomberg. Banks that meet “prudent” lending criteria set by the PBOC may obtain overnight loans at 4.5% and 7-day loans at 5.5%, in yet another gentle attempt to ease the monetary situatin and slow down the bursting of the domestic housing bubble.
Completely the Asia roundup, as Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow writes, the “news overnight from Asia adds more fuel to the question whether Asia is stalling, with Taiwanese IP weak and Australia’s slowing q/q growth putting a rate cut back on table.” We would add how much longer can the dreaded global “D” word be avoided when it is clear that everyone but the Fed is now desperate to avoid deflation.
Shifting west, after opening in the green, European equities have swung between gains and losses, this follows on from negative closes out of the US and Asia with Services PMIs from around Europe and the UK coming out below expectation (Eurozone Service PMI 53.7 vs. Exp. 53.9, Prev. 53.9 & UK Services PMI 56.7 vs Exp. 57.5, Prev. 57.2). On a sector specific basis, material names are underperforming in Europe after Fresnillio (-5.0%) reported negative earnings pre market. Weakness in equities has seen Bunds and USTs recover from earlier position squaring ahead of upcoming key risk events, namely ADP today, ECB rate decision on Thursday and NFP on Friday.
In FX markets, the USD index printed fresh 11 year highs after breaking out of its tight overnight range and through 95.5 to the upside, while resistance could come in the form of the 50% retracement from the 2001 high to the 2008 low at 95.859. The strength seen in the greenback weighed on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with the EUR reaching an 11 year low, while both EUR and GBP have seen weakness after the aforementioned Services PMI readings.
Elsewhere, NZD/USD trades at session highs amid no fundamental news after breaking through its 50DMA of 0.7572 to the upside and above yesterday’s highs. Meanwhile, ahead of today’s BoC rate decisions, CAD has weakened, with the move attributed to USD strength as the central bank are expected by most surveyed analysts to keep rates on hold. During Asia hours, RBI unexpectedly cut its Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25bps to 7.5% and 6.5% respectively, with Goldman Sachs bringing forward expectations of possible rate cut by the Indian central bank from April by a month.
WTI crude futures resides in positive territory to outperform Brent heading into the NYMEX pit open after yesterday’s API inventory showed a build of 2900k, substantially less than last week’s 8900k build. This comes ahead of DoE inventories today, expected at 3950k (Prev. 8427k), while comments from Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi had no effect on markets, failing to add any new rhetoric. NatGas outperforms in the energy complex as a consequence of cold weather in the US. Finally in terms of the metals complex, gold has traded mildly higher overnight, coming off its best levels heading into the North American cross over, with the safe-haven supported amid a bout of weakness seen across global equity markets.
In Summary: European shares stay lower, close to intraday lows, with the basic resources and chemicals sectors underperforming and autos, telco outperforming. Euro-area composite PMI, U.K. services PMI below estimates. U.K. wins court ruling on ECB policy on Euro clearinghouses. India cuts interest rate in surprise move. Obama extends sanctions against Russian officials over Ukraine. The Swedish and Spanish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Commodities decline, with wheat, soybeans underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing, mortgage applications, ADP employment change, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI, due later.
Market Wrap
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2097.5
Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 387.1
US 10Yr yield up 1bps to 2.13%
German 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.37%
MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6% to 145.6
Gold spot up 0% to $1204.4/oz
Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.4%, CAC 40 -0%, DAX -0.4%, IBEX -0.7%, FTSEMIB -0.3%, SMI +0.3%
Asian stocks fall with the Shanghai Composite outperforming and the Hang Seng underperforming.
MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6% to 145.6
Nikkei 225 down 0.6%, Hang Seng down 1%, Kospi down 0.2%, Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, ASX down 0.5%, Sensex down 0.7%
Euro down 0.47% to $1.1124
Dollar Index up 0.34% to 95.71
Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.38%
Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.37%
French 10Yr yield up 0bps to 0.67%
S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 416.7
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $60.7/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.5% to $50.8/bbl
LME 3m Copper down 0.1% to $5816/MT
LME 3m Nickel down 0% to $13670/MT
Wheat futures down 0.9% to 501.3 USd/bu
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg
European equities have swung between gains and losses with Services PMIs from around Europe and the UK coming out below expectation
The USD index printed fresh 11 year highs to weigh on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with EUR reaching 11 year lows
Looking ahead, this afternoon sees US ADP Employment Change, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manf. Composite and DoE Crude oil Inventories, as well as the BoC rate decision and a host of Fed speakers
Treasuries steady before ADP Employment, est. +219 vs +213 in Jan.; U.S./Germany 10Y spread near widest since May 1989 before Draghi’s expected release of QE details at tomorrow’s ECB meeting.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan cut rates in an unscheduled move days after the government agreed for the first time to give the central bank a legal mandate to target inflation
Britain scored a rare victory in its bid to challenge EU powers over the City of London as EU judges sided with the U.K. in a clash with the European Central Bank on clearinghouses
Investors are paying to hold covered bonds as ECB stimulus pushes yields on EU21.3b ($24 billion) of the highly rated debt below zero
Yellen, countering criticism from members of Congress, said the Fed is trying to avoid being too cozy with the Wall Street firms it supervises and wants to ensure that regulators aren’t afraid to confront the financial industry
RBS may cut more than 2/3 of its investment-bank jobs as part of a plan to shrink the securities unit and focus on the U.K. consumer market, a person with knowledge of the matter said
U.K. Conservatives led in a third straight poll of voting intentions as their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, sank to a 25-year low with just over two months to go until the general election
Sovereign 10Y yields higher. Asian, European stocks stocks fall; U.S. equity-index futures decline. Crude, gold and copper steady
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap
This week hasn’t really got going yet but it’s set to liven up today and as we move towards the weekend. ADP employment data and the Greek T-bill auction are the main events before we see the China National People’s Congress meeting tomorrow along with the ECB meeting and then payrolls on Friday. As we write this the Indian central bank has added to the list of surprise rate cuts this year with only 3 out of 15 polled on Bloomberg expecting the move. More on this later.
As mentioned the Greek T-Bill auction will be worth keeping an eye on today. The nation has a €1.4bn maturity due on Friday along with a €300m repayment due to the IMF. DB’s George Saravelos noted that the portion of the bill held by foreigners (c. €800m) may be unwilling to roll over and so potentially raise the risk that the auction does not generate the necessary amount to cover Friday’s maturity. This, combined with reluctance by the ECB to raise the cap on T-Bill issuance, will likely place the government under considerable near term pressure. It’s likely that we hear the first request from the Greek government to the ECB to increase the T-Bill issuance cap at the Eurogroup meeting next Monday. However it remains to been seen whether or not the ECB is willing to comply and instead we heard earlier suggestions from the EC’s Dijsselbloem that Europe may be willing to allow for an early disbursement of the final tranche should conditions be agreed upon. On this, Greek press Ekathimerini reported yesterday that finance minister Varoufakis is due to present a collection of six reform proposals to Eurogroup ministers on Monday. The report also claims that Varoufakis is likely to be prepared to discuss what privatizations the government is willing to carry out with suggestions that he is in favour of further private investment at the Piraeus Port and in the Greek railway. This appears to conflict with comments from other Greek government officials however with the state minister in particular saying that the coalition would not consider selling Greece’s water or electricity assets.
Recapping the market moves yesterday, it was a relatively subdued day on the whole culminating in equity markets in the US retreating from recent highs. The S&P 500 finished -0.45% at the close. Aside from a better day for energy stocks (+0.23%) following gains for WTI (+1.88%) and Brent (+2.49%) – which in turn appeared to rise on geopolitical concerns in Libya – losses were generally broad based across sectors. In terms of data, readings on the whole were largely mixed. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for March rose 1.6pts to 49.1 (vs. 47.8 expected) and the lesser-followed ISM NY firmed over 18pts to 63.1. Vehicle sales disappointed however. The 16.16m saar for February was down versus both consensus (16.7m) and also from the January reading (16.56m). Treasury yields rose for the second consecutive day meanwhile. Both 10y (+3.7bps) and 2y (+1.6bps) yields climbed to 2.119% and 0.678% respectively. The latter is in fact now at its highs in yield for the year. Elsewhere, the Dollar was largely unchanged.
It was a day of rising bond yields in Europe also yesterday. Indeed, 10y benchmark yields in Germany (+0.7bps) and France (+3.0bps) both rose whilst peripherals fared little better with yields 4-6bps wider generally. With newsflow relatively light yesterday, the market appears to be in something of a wait and see mode ahead of the ECB this Thursday. Macro data was also relatively light, however retail sales out of Germany provided something for the market to digest. The +5.3% print was in fact up half a percent from the December print and also came in well ahead of expectations of +3.0%. The reading was also the highest since June 2010 and marked a fourth consecutive monthly increase which has only happened four times since 1994. Despite a modest rise in Bund yields yesterday, the yield curve is still trading in negative territory up until the 6-year bucket which is in stark contrast to the relatively solid macro data releases we’ve seen out of the nation of late. Elsewhere, PPI for the Euro-area continues to be subdued with the -3.4% yoy reading below market (-3.0% yoy).
Yesterday’s data did little to help equity markets in Europe with the Stoxx 600 in particular extending its weaker start to March closing -0.92% and led by Banks (-1.55%) and Autos (-2.08%) in particular. Credit markets on the other hand closed a touch firmer with Xover tightening 2bps. In fact primary markets appeared to be the one area of decent appetite yesterday. Interestingly, in Europe the Icelandic Bank Arion issued the first bond by an Icelandic bank in Euro’s since the collapse of its domestic banking sector. The 3-year senior bonds were priced at a yield of 3.24%. In fact glancing across peripheral bank debt, similar maturity senior Bank of Ireland bonds are trading at 1.1% and Monte dei Paschi bonds are 2.2%, which is of course in stark contrast to their counterparts in Greece where 2-year senior Piraeus Bank debt is trading north of 15%. Elsewhere, the other headline in credit markets yesterday centered around the record bond sale by US drug-maker Actavis (BBB- rated). The $21bn of bonds sold by the corporate yesterday as part of its M&A financing was in fact the second largest corporate debt raising ever. Clearly there was little issue around appetite for the deal with Bloomberg reporting that there was around $90bn of orders across the structure.
Just wrapping up yesterday’s news, Ukraine was of some attention yesterday following the news that the nation’s Central Bank raised its main benchmark rate by 10.5% to 30% – the highest benchmark rate globally. The rate is in fact up from 14% just a month ago and 6.5% this time last year. Governor Gontareva was reported on Bloomberg saying that the move was to ‘stabilize the situation on the money and lending markets’ with the nation suffering from rising inflationary issues (+28.5% yoy as of January) and a depreciating currency. The move appeared to provide some support to the Ukrainian Hryvnia, with the currency bouncing 8.5% versus the Dollar
Taking a look at the early morning trading in Asia, bourses are generally following the US lead and trading lower as we type. The Nikkei (-0.64%), Shanghai Comp (-0.17%) and Hang Seng (-0.31%) in particular are weaker. The exception is in India where the Nifty (+0.83%) and Sensex (+0.99%) are sharply higher after the surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The Central Bank has cut the benchmark repurchase rate by 25bps cut 7.5%, marking the second easing this year.
In terms of today’s calendar, as mentioned focus this morning in Europe will be on the Greek t-bill auction whilst away from that attention will be on the PMI readings where we get the final February services and composite prints for the Euro-area, Germany and France as well as the first readings for Italy, Spain and the UK. Also due up this morning are retail sales for the Euro-area. This afternoon in the US, as well as well the ADP employment reading we get the final services and composite PMI readings as well as the ISM non-manufacturing reading and the release of the Fed Beige Book. So it does feel the week will heat up a little after a dullish start.
end
In a surprise move the Central Bankof India cut its interest rate a second time in two months. Another indicator of the global economic contraction.
(courtesy zero hedge)
India Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate “Pre-Emptively” For Second Time In 2 Months
In a surprise move, the RBI just cut its main interest rates for the second time in two months, taking it from 6.75% to 6.50%, in what the central bank calls a “pre-emptive” policy move, but what is in reality merely a confirmation that so far in 2015 at least 20 central banks have lowered their interest rate.
From the statement:
The RBI notes that the rupee has remained strong relative to peer countries. While an excessively strong rupee is undesirable, it too creates disinflationary impulses…
…softer readings on inflation are expected to come in through the first half of 2015-16 before firming up to below 6 per cent in the second half. The fiscal consolidation programme, while delayed, may compensate in quality, especially if state governments are cooperative. Given low capacity utilisation and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the Reserve Bank to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilise available space for monetary accommodation.
Via Bloomberg:
INDIA’S RBI CUTS RATE TO 7.5%
INDIA CUTS REVERSE REPURCHASE RATE TO 6.50% FROM 6.75%
RBI KEEPS CASH RESERVE RATIO OF SCHEDULED BAN