When to Draft a Tight End in 2016
We’ve all been there, you need a Tight End and decide to target one in the middle round of your fantasy football draft. You’re about seven to eight picks away from being on the clock when suddenly, one comes off the board, then another. Before you know it, league mates panic and a trend is born. Tight Ends are now flying off the board leaving you to regret not taking one around earlier. It’s a yearly sighting at nearly every fantasy football draft, and so many times it pressures owners to reach for a player when they otherwise wouldn’t.
Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Eifert, and Jordan Reed are in the upper tier of Tight End studs in the league, but come with a high price tag; costing you anywhere between a 1st and a 4th round pick. These guys all averaged upwards of 9.6 FPPG in 2015, which is very impressive, but tight end production dropped off pretty sharply from there on out. The players that are being drafted in the next tier such as Delanie Walker and Gary Barnidge cost drafters a 6th -10th round pick; a pick that could be used on a WR2 or an RB2 for fantasy purposes. Filling your key starting position at tight end is important, and that’s an entirely understandable strategy, but when your players start to get injured or don’t meet your stat-expectations, you’ll be wishing there was depth on that bench of yours at receiver and running back.
This year, above other years, in particular, fantasy football tight ends are becoming more utilized in the NFL, and there is a coinciding increase in fantasy depth at the position. This allows drafters the opportunity to develop needed depth on their squads, especially following an injury-riddled 2015 fantasy season that is still giving fantasy owners nightmares.
Sixteen tight ends averaged more than six fantasy points per game in 2015, which is a solid baseline for a starting tight end. This ranged from players with exactly 6 FPPG in Eric Ebron, to a league leading 12.2 FPPG in Rob Gronkowski, and everywhere in between. Moving onto 2016, there are eighteen tight ends being drafted in 12-team standard formats.
The fifth highest scoring tight end in points per game in 2015, Gary Barnidge only held a 3.3 FPPG lead over 16th ranked Eric Ebron. Granted this is equitable to a 52.8 fantasy point difference over a sixteen game span, but there are arguably better ways you can make up this sum at other positions. Coming into 2016, who does better week-to- week? The owner who drafts Gary Barnidge in the 7th round? Or the drafter that waits until the 13th or 14th and picks up a guy like Jordan Cameron, and uses his earlier picks to build depth at other key positions? My money is on the latter nine times out of ten. Now I’m not suggesting that you be the last person to take a starting tight end in your league this upcoming season, but there is some substance to the idea of not pulling the trigger on one too early.
Patience Pays
The projected point differentials between the bottom two tiers of these draft groups are few and far between. For example, Delanie Walker, who is being drafted in the sixth round currently, is projected to achieve an average of 7.9 FPPG in 2016. When you compare this to the 5.8 FPPG projected for Zach Miller, who is the second to last tight end being drafted in most leagues, and you have a difference of only 2.1 FPPG. There are very intriguing tight ends going in the 10th-15th rounds of fantasy drafts this year, ones that could fill the before-mentioned role later on, and allow you to utilize your early picks on developing wide receiver and running back depth. Here’re a couple of candidates to get your mind moving in the right direction:
Dwayne Allen
Indianapolis Colts | ADP 169
Dwayne Allen is without a doubt one of the most underrated tight ends coming into 2016. The pass-catching tight end has had a very tumultuous career thus far, having missed 21 out of 64 potential games in his first four season. Combine these injuries, with the fact that Allen was sharing snaps with former teammate Coby Fleener, and you can see that Allen has been the farthest thing from a consistent starter the past few years.
With this said however, we got a glimpse of the enormous potential that the Indianapolis tight end position contains during the 2014 season. This was a season in which we saw a healthy Andrew Luck playing at his full potential, amassing over 4700 yards and 40 touchdowns. During this season, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen combined for 1169 yards, and 16 touchdowns. That’s 40% of Luck’s touchdown passes being thrown to his tight ends, which is a mouth-watering stat. Last year was very much a fluke season that was riddled with injuries for the Indianapolis Colts, but with an improved offensive line, and a healthy Andrew Luck, their 2016 numbers should more closely resemble those from 2014. If this happens, and with Coby Fleener having moved on to the New Orleans Saints, Dwayne Allen should be in line for an immense amount of targets. Donte Moncrief will be a reliable red zone target for Luck this year, and that will take away from some of Allen’s fantasy value, but the presence of this potential breakout receiver could also help Allen find mismatches across the field. All Dwayne Allen has to do is stay healthy, and work on minimizing his drops. If this happens, a top ten fantasy tight end performance could emerge right before our eyes in a very powerful offense. Keep him on your radar.
Martellus Bennett
New England Patriots | ADP 140
Martellus Bennett is one of the sneakier plays for tight end in the upcoming season. Many analysts and fans alike are pegging him as more of a high-level handcuff to Gronkowski than anything else. This makes a lot of sense, as the Gronk has had his share of injuries over the past couple of seasons, and people are questioning the ceiling for a TE2. However, Bennett can provide solid fantasy numbers even if Gronkowski stays healthy in my opinion. There is a huge chance that Bennett develops more of a TE1-B role for the New England Patriots.
In 2013, both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez finished as top-three tight ends in fantasy football. Two tight ends from the same team, basically leading the entire NFL in yards and touchdowns is insane. If you take a look a the 2013 Patriot’s roster, it shares a lot of similarities to their current status. You have names like Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, and Nate Washington joining the squad in 2016; but fantasy confidence in these guys is extremely lacking considering what we saw from players like LaFell, Dobson, and Amendola over the past couple of years. If Bennett can earn Brady’s trust, seeing two Patriots tight ends finish in at least the top ten wouldn’t be too farfetched of an idea. Rex Ryan put it best following the Patriots’ pickup of Bennett in February: “How are we supposed to guard both of them?”. Gronk and Bennett are going to give defenses nightmares across the NFL in 2016.
Beyond the ADP
With wide receivers being so heavily valued in fantasy football drafts this year, and with people being in disarray following the slew of running back injuries in 2015, more and more tight ends are slipping into the later rounds. Eighteen tight ends are being taken off the board in twelve team leagues right now. That means that fourteen starting tight ends are going undrafted in these leagues. So even if you miss out on that tight end you were targeting in the later rounds, there are more than enough streaming options this year. These next tight ends are presently going undrafted this year, and all of them have a chance to make the move from the waiver wire to fantasy relevance during the 2016 regular season.
Charles Clay
Buffalo Bills | Undrafted
Charles Clay only managed to go for 528 yards receiving and found pay dirt only twice during the 2015 NFL season. With this said, they did implement a new offensive system in Buffalo, and they had a young Tyrod Taylor under center; both factors that contributed to a poor 2015 performance by Clay. With a more comfortable quarterback in the pocket of an established offense, Clay should have quite a few more balls thrown his way. Sammy Watkins is a huge injury concern coming into the season, which could help Clay develop more chemistry with his quarterback during training camp as well. Even if Watkins does overcome his nagging injuries, and stay healthy, the league is now acutely aware of this WR1’s precision and speed, and he will thus see a lot of double coverage over the course of the season. This should leave Charles Clay open more often, and the tight end should certainly be a better receiving option than WR2 Robert Woods. The question is: Can Charles Clay capitalize on these opportunities?
Clive Walford
Oakland Raiders | Undrafted
Clive Walford is only 23 years old and is playing for one of the most successfully overhauled teams in the NFL over the past decade. Just about every component of the Raider’s offense except the offensive line is under the age of 25, including the quarterback. This means obvious growing pains before the offense will reach maximum efficiency, but if the performance the Raiders put on last year can be defined as ‘growing pains,’ then I’m drooling at the thought of the possible end-results.
The youth of this team as a whole makes Clive Walford’s 2016 fantasy prospects all that more intriguing because they can grow together as a unit. Also, the reinforcements the Raiders made to their line in the offseason will help immensely, as they won’t have to use Walford to plug holes in various blocking schemes. Last year we saw Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Latavius Murray all carve out significant roles in that offense, and thus provided owners with consistent week-to-week numbers. Opposing defenses learned the hard way last season that Crabtree and Cooper are a potent duo. They will draw a lot of attention this year, much like the Watkins-Clay situation in Buffalo, and this should give the young tight end some more opportunities. Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense are coming into their own in the Black Hole. Get on the hype train before it leaves the station.
Cameron Brate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Undrafted
Yea, it’s quite the stretch, I know, but these are streaming options after all. Austin-Sefarian Jenkins, while being hyped up earlier in the offseason, managed to get himself kicked out of practice at OTA’s. Coming into his third year in the NFL, Jenkins getting tossed by his coach is the equivalent of an adolescent being removed from gym class. Not impressive. Training camp is coming up, so ASJ will no doubt have a chance to redeem himself, but there are obvious red flags here regarding his character. While Cameron Brate was in a young offense, and had a frustrating injury carousel to deal with ASJ, he did manage to make the most of his opportunities in 2015. Brate averaged 12.5 yards per reception, and also managed to turn 13% of his receptions into touchdowns. I like Brate’s chances of making an impact if he is given the nod over ASJ, and if he is able to develop a report with an improving Jameis Winston.
Grain of salt
Every draft is different, and there is no one size fits all solution to overcoming the tight end slide. Some leagues may have members that devalue or overvalue tight ends, and as a fantasy owner, you have to react to your environment. If you do want to wait to draft your tight end, but don’t want to miss out on your target, take note of the players being drafted before him ADP-wise when preparing for draft day. When these players start to go off the board, you know you’ll have to make a move on your target sooner than later.
As said before, the offensive schemes in the NFL have been slowly trending more and more around pass-catching tight ends. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the pool of elite-level tight ends expand significantly this season, and it would certainly be beneficial to your fantasy squad to be ahead of this trend.
Christian Kirchner | Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Patience Pays With Tight Ends - Gridiron Experts