With the NFL Preseason finally behind us, all that stands in our way from NFL games that actually matter is this weekend and a handful of days before Thursday night NFL season kickoff between the Panthers and Broncos. While Gridiron Experts is about to close the chapter on Draft content, the staff got together to answer some final questions and talk shop before the season is here.
Question 1: Who’s one Rookie RB you’d target in a Re-Draft League not named Zeke Elliott and why?
Eric Ludwig: After watching film on most of the top name RBs, the guy that I love is Jordan Howard drafted by Chicago. Howard has a significant history with injuries, was hardly used in the passing game making his hands questionable, plays behind Jeremy Langford who was at least serviceable and his new Head Coach has a reputation for keeping rookies on the sideline for as long as possible. That being said; Howard had the same yards per touch as Zeke Elliott despite fewer receptions, running behind an inferior line and playing against a tougher schedule. The RBs behind Howard averaged 4.4 YPC, while Howard averaged 6.3. The RBs behind Zeke averaged 6.5 YPC while Zeke averaged 6.3. Both Howard and Zeke played against Michigan and Michigan State last year. Both RBs destroyed Michigan so that’s a wash, but Zeke averaged 2.8 YPC while Howard averaged 7.1 YPC against Michigan State. To be fair, neither RB saw extensive work against Mich. State, but it’s noteworthy. I think Zeke is the better athlete, the better RB overall and landed in the perfect spot, but I think Howard has the best chance of all the rookie RBs to straight-up win the starting RB role before the season starts. Don’t forget Langford is known for his pass-catching, but he could just as easily be known for his pass-dropping where he had 8 drops against 22 receptions.
Russ Prentice: Gonna go a little off the map here and go with Tyler Ervin of Houston. While he carried the load for San Jose State last season, Ervin is not gonna be the big carry guy for the Texans following the signing of Lamar Miller, but that’s not the type of player that Ervin is anyways, he is in the mold of a Shane Vereen/Dion Lewis type which teams are coveting in today’s NFL. Even with Lamar Miller on the field, there are opportunities for Ervin to make an impact due to the lack of a threat at the tight end position, opening up routes in the underneath zone. With a former New England staffer, Bill O’Brien, at the helm of the Texans, I feel he was looking for one of these new weapons when he selected Ervin in the NFL Draft. Ervin recorded 73 receptions for 642 yards in his past two seasons at San Jose State, which is a significant number in terms of receptions from a college running back — Kenneth Dixon, a higher touted receiving back in the rookie class, only had 64 receptions over the past two seasons. Ervin recorded the second fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine with a blistering 4.41 time, couple that with his advanced receiving skills, and I think the Texans may have found a new weapon to roll out in their offense. Ervin should also offer some additional points in leagues that award points for kick/punt returns.
Jeff Smith: What exactly from 2015 made everyone fully and completely sold on the whole C.J. Anderson-Ronnie Hillman duo? These two guys weren’t bad (together) at times last year, but there’s a reason why the Denver Broncos went out and drafted Utah’s Devontae Booker. This is a guy who’s not only a stellar runner (2,773 yards, 21 touchdowns in two seasons), but also can catch passes (80 receptions, 622 yards and two touchdowns). With the quarterback position seriously up in the air in Denver right now, Booker has the potential to be a PPR machine if he can prove that he’s capable of adjusting to the speed of the NFL. I think the Broncos got a complete and total steal in this guy, and there’s nothing that I saw last year from either Anderson or Hillman that has me thinking they can hold back a hungry rookie who’s looking to make a name for himself.
Question 2: What are your thoughts on the Rookie Receiver Class for Re-draft Leagues?
Jen Ryan: This is not a knock on the class per say but I am not high on rookie receivers, or rookies for that matter, in general. I truly believe in the adjustment period that comes with playing professional football and I do not buy into what someone did in college necessarily translating to the NFL. The 2014 anomaly rookie receiver class was just that, an anomaly. Rookie receivers were over drafted last season yet Amari Cooper was the only one who had a thousand yard season. There is certainly a lot to love in this class, especially with Corey Coleman and Josh Docston possibly assuming the WR1 role on their respective teams. With that said, I still will not be drafting any rookie receiver in re-draft leagues unless I am looking for a late-dart. It is a matter of preference. Some late round fliers I am looking at are Pharoah Cooper and Michael Thomas simply because of their landing spots. There is no clear cut WR1 on the L.A. Rams and Cooper could have an immediate role. Thomas will have Drew Brees throwing to him and that is good enough for me. I have a similar opinion with Sterling Shepard but only if he falls to the double-digit rounds. Eli Manning will have to throw to someone besides Odell Beckham, Jr and with Victor Cruz seemingly always questionable and Rueben Randle out the door, Shepard could be that someone.
Shae Cronin: In the case of rookies and redraft, it’s really all about the rookie’s fit and newfound situation. Sure there’s a growing period (in most cases) as greenhorns get their feet wet and become acclimated to the big leagues, but sometimes a perfect situation helps to speed up the process, in turn providing you with some immediate fantasy value, or at least some upside. For example, a guy like Josh Doctson may ooze with intrigue, but he has more than a couple names in front of him on the depth chart in Washington (in addition to a nagging injury), so we may not necessarily see ‘rosterable’ production as early as this season. On the other hand, take a guy like Corey Coleman in Cleveland, who should see plenty of balls come his way because his competition for such is much thinner. Another one to keep an eye would be Sterling Shepard in New York, who could see early benefit from playing alongside Odell Beckham Jr. And while many may be down on him (perhaps due to his quarterback NOTE Shaun Hill is a downgrade from Bridgewater) a guy like Laquon Treadwell — whose skill set I love opposite hometown hero Stefon Diggs — steps into a decent situation in Minnesota on the receiving end of a young quarterback who’s actively seeking more receiving targets. Coleman, Shepard, and Treadwell are the kind of situations you’re looking for when it comes to youngsters in redraft leagues.
Russ Prentice: The overall talent of the Rookie Receiver Class this year is fairly strong, but as some others mentioned already, their landing spots are not ideal. Corey Coleman appears to have moved to the top of the re-draft rankings in terms of the rookie class, and while I agree with that ranking, there is a lot of question marks surrounding the Browns passing game. Cleveland ranked 16th in gross passing yards last season. While that is league average, the Browns went 3-13 and were in many game flow situations where they had to throw for the majority of the second half; this scenario will likely be in place again in 2016, only a “league average” situation is not great for an unproven rookie. My second ranked rookie receiver, Josh Doctson, landed in a great spot for 2017, but in 2016 he has veteran receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon hogging targets. Michael Thomas is in a similar situation to Doctson, on a team with a good offense, but lots of other targets that are higher on the depth chart. Laquon Treadwell landed in a spot with a shaky passing game (shakier now with Shaun Hill as the presumed starter), at least for the time being while Adrian Peterson is still carrying the ball in Minnesota. Will Fuller may benefit from DeAndre Hopkins drawing top coverage and double teams, but I am just not sold on Fuller’s skills after seeing him drop a lot of passes at Notre Dame. Sterling Shepard landed in a spot similar to Fuller, but I believe he will act as a better complement to Odell Beckham and may be the best value rookie receiver this year, currently going in the early 9th round of MFL drafts.
Jeff Smith: Nope, just nope. Don’t do it. You want to do it, and you want to do it bad, but these guys are going to need time. It’s not going to be players who everyone wants to jump on who are the ones that step up either. Will Fuller has me concerned, as he’s not a hands-catcher, but more of a body-catcher, which can lead to a struggle transitioning from college to the NFL. There’s a reason why Laquon Treadwell went from being a potential top-10 pick, to falling to No. 23. Out of the entire class, I’d say Josh Doctson intrigues me the most, but there’s too many mouths to feed in Washington. To go along with him, I love Sterling Shepard and think he’ll be the most productive year one rookie if we’re being honest. Odell is going to hate it, but fantasy owners who take a chance on this guy will love it. Want another late-late sleeper? Pharoh Cooper of the Los Angeles Rams. The coaches are absolutely loving this guy, and he’s going to have an incredible opportunity to build rapport with Jared Goff from the word go.
Mitchell Renz: Over the past two seasons we as fantasy football players and fans of the NFL have been spoiled when it comes to rookie receivers. Which is the reason why rookie receivers are simply being over valued in re-draft leagues. There is good talent in this year’s draft class but many of the landing spots were not ideal. Corey Coleman is a WR 1 in an offense which is great, but he will most likely have RG3 throwing him the ball which doesn’t make me very confident. Will Fuller to me is Ted Ginn and if anyone thinks Ted Ginn has lived up to his hype than they still must be watching Ohio State footage. Doctson was my favorite receiver coming out of the draft but landed in an extremely crowded receiving situation with Washington, so predicting his impact this year isn’t easy. My second favorite receiver was Treadwell but he landed with the Vikings who ranked last a season ago in pass attempts and have now lost Teddy Bridgewater for the season. My favorite rookie receiver has to be Sterling Shepard, by far the best route runner from all rookie receivers and landed in the best situation. The Giants ran more three wide sets last year than any other team at over 90 percent so even if Victor Cruz overcomes his injury Shepard will be on the field 90 percent of the time. I am predicting about 100 targets for Shepard this season which for a rookie is pretty good. I am not saying it is impossible for the rookies to have a breakout season, but we as fantasy football players need to temper our expectations.
Question 3: Is there a Rookie Tight End that you Feel is Worth Drafting in a re-draft league this year?
Rich Thomas This one is easy – No. Even with ignoring history that shows how rookie tight ends tend to struggle to produce, there just aren’t enough out there this year to warrant consideration. The best rookie tight end from a talent standpoint is San Diego’s Hunter Henry, but he’s not going to supplant Antonio Gates this season. With an injury to Gates, Henry could become relevant. But using a roster spot on a tight end handcuff is poor roster management. Find lottery tickets elsewhere. Atlanta’s Austin Hooper is the most likely rookie tight end to see substantial playing time this season. Even so, the position is very deep this year. I counted over 20 veteran tight ends I’d prefer in a redraft format over Hooper. This simply isn’t the year to invest in a rookie tight end in your redraft league.
Christian Kirchner I’m not going to touch a rookie tight-end with a ten foot pole; this year, or any other year. There is way too much of a learning curve at that position in particular for players making the move from college to the NFL. Just like wide-receivers, tight-ends must learn an entire new offensive playbook, and a lot of times they must learn a new blocking scheme as well. Unlike receivers however, tight-ends are put in the trenches against some of the best and strongest defensive players in the NFL. This requires immense practice and concentration on the part of incoming tight ends. History has shown that the way to earn coaches trust in the NFL from the tight-end position is to establish yourself as a blocker first and foremost, and then let the offensive opportunities come. Many of the great names that we associate with the tight-end position such as Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Greg Olsen, all had one thing in common. None of the before-mentioned names surpassed 65 fantasy points during their rookie seasons (Regular Scoring). That is a staggering statistic. One statistical anomaly does exist in the dataset, however, and that is the physical specimen we know as “The Gronk”, who managed to rack up 114.6 fantasy points in his freshman debut with Tom Brady. I certainly don’t expect Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, or any of the other rookies to pull off anything close to what Gronkowski did back in 2010. Steer clear, for your own sake.
Doug Moore: Does Jeff Heuerman count? If not, then no. Hunter Henry obviously sticks out to me, but Phillip Rivers has a plethora of wide receivers to throw to already and Henry would probably only see some targets if Antonio Gates went down with injury. This was a very weak tight end class in 2015 and no one really stands out that could make a real impact in 2016. I’ve seen a lot of people mention Austin Hooper as well with the Falcons, but I believe Jacob Tamme is the starting tight end in 2016 simply due to his veteran experience. Besides Henry in San Diego, no rookie tight end landed in a “good spot” to contribute as a rookie in fantasy football. I’d stay away personally.
Mitchell Renz: Survey Says, No! I know readers can’t see how violently my head is shaking side to side but the answer to this question is very simple, No! Considering the fact that in the last two season no rookie tight end has ever gained more than 900 yards and only two in the last 17 seasons have ever had more than five touchdown (both were on the Patriots in 2010). In fact only 26 tight ends have ever gained more than 500 yards in their rookie season. The tight end position is very demanding which is no surprise many tight ends struggle in their rookie seasons. All of that being said tight ends in their second year make a huge leap forward. The top tight end in this year’s class is without debate Hunter Henry from Arkansas. Henry landed in San Diego and as long as Antonio Gates is still suiting up there is no room for Hunter Henry. For the most part rookie tight ends are just a dead end that you wish you never would have driven in the first place, which is why I encourage you to stay away from all rookie tight ends. That being said if Gates finally retires than Henry could become one of the biggest breakout candidates at the tight end position for 2017.
Question 4: Which Mid-Round RB do think has the best ADP Bargain?
Shae Cronin: I can see myself falling for Duke Johnson, now under the coaching of Hue Jackson in Cleveland. The comparison to what Gio Bernard was able to do under Jackson in Cincy may seem lazy, but I can board that train. Johnson has the quickness and the versatility to make the most of what Jackson seems to like at the running back position and he should still be available after the seventh round. And at the mention of Bernard, don’t fall away from him so quickly either. If you find yourself falling a little in love with Duke, theoretically you should feel even more warm and fuzzy about Bernard.
Josh Daniels: As unsexy a pick as it may be, Danny Woodhead will provide good value in the 7th Round. Currently his ADP puts him at RB 30 which seems too low to me for a guy who has the trust of Phillip Rivers and is second on the depth charts behind only Melvin Gordon. Gordon is a second year back who struggled mightily in his rookie season. Woodhead will play, as always, on third downs but I can again see him getting more and more reps as the season goes on or if Gordon’s knee becomes a problem again this season. I’d take Woodhead all day over the likes of Jay Ajayi who is already taking a big back seat to Arian foster and is being drafted at roughly the same ADP.
Christian Kirchner: I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest football fans everywhere take a hard look at T.J. Yeldon for their fantasy teams. This may seem a bit farfetched given that Ivory has proven that he can carry the load over the years, and he’s now in Jacksonville; but last year’s performance with the Jets came with almost ideal surroundings. Between Fitzpatrick breaking Jet passing records, their offensive line being second best in the league, and having a pair of great receivers to take the pressure off of the run game; he couldn’t have asked for a better situation. It is interesting to note here that even with the great year, Ivory’s 4.3 YPC in 2015 was the second lowest of his career. T.J. Yeldon only played 12 games last year, and still managed to achieve 740 yards on 182 carries, a pace that would have had him finishing with 987 yards as a rookie if he had played a full 16 games. He managed to pull off these numbers running behind the 29th overall ranked offensive line, an offensive line that is raising questions about the 2016 fantasy potential of the Jaguars’ QB and RB’s alike. This is a new year however, and both the Jaguars and Yeldon have a lot of things going in their favor for the upcoming season. Gus Bradley beefed up the offensive line by adding veteran free-agents Bernadeau, Linkenbach, and Beachum to the roster, which should serve to improve play in the trenches. Looking at the running-back situation, T.J. Yeldon is the younger of the two backs by almost six years, and has the upside to learn and grow on a young team. Given that Ivory is 28 years old, and is entering a new offensive system, I would be willing to bet that he is being plugged into the system to keep Yeldon from getting complacent, and to spell his snap count a bit. Worst case scenario here is that they roll with RBBC for the beginning part of the season to keep touches down for each back, but I fully expect Yeldon to take over the majority of the carries by the second half of the season. Currently going early in the seventh round at 81st overall, the upside and value that T.J. Yeldon possesses at that ADP should make adding him to your fantasy roster a no-brainer.
Question 5: Which Mid-Round WR do think has the best ADP Bargain?
Josh Daniels: In 2015 Donte Moncrief caught 5 TDs in 7 games from Andrew Luck and 1 TD in remaining 9 games of the season and still managed to finish as 38 overall WR. He is currently being drafted in the middle to late part of the 5th round (up from 8th round just a month ago) but should see a big uptick in his production with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck. Yes, T.Y. Hilton is still the de facto WR1 in Indy with his ability to stretch the field and superior route running, but Luck has shown the ability to spread the ball around in the past and Moncrief provides a better target in the red zone. I expect to see Moncrief’s RZ targets climb even more with the departure of Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson both of whom received the same amount of RZ targets (10) as did Moncrief in 2015. With less big-bodied competition for RZ targets and a full 16 game season with Andrew Luck, I could see Moncrief breaking into the top 20 at the wide receiver position fairly easily.
Russ Prentice: Although he is quickly becoming an industry darling, I believe the Rams have figured out how to get the most of Tavon Austin; at his current ADP of 109 (WR43), he represents a great draft value. It is no surprise that Austin has been able to add some fantasy points as a rusher (just YouTube his 2012 game highlights against the University of Oklahoma), but what was surprising was that he actually got better as a fantasy receiver when Todd Gurley entered the lineup (averaging 13.1 PPR points with Gurley, only 8.8 without). The threat of a running game opened up space just past the linebackers where Austin attacked the open space. The loss of Jared Cook to the Packers will open up more short yardage targets this year, I believe Austin will be the main beneficiary of these targets, especially with a rookie QB (Jared Goff) likely starting Week 1. Austin led all receivers with 52 rushing attempts last season, Jarvis Landry was second with only 17 — while his numbers are not going to blow you away in volume in the air or on the ground, the combined totals are very sneaky as he was the WR24 last year, making him a clear fantasy #2 option in most leagues; act now while you can still get him as a low-end WR4 in drafts, you really have nothing to lose at that price.
Christian Kirchner: One player that I feel everyone is taking way too late in fantasy drafts is Devante Parker. This receiver out of Louisville is a physical freak, with great instincts coming down with the ball in traffic. Devante Parker is currently ranked by consensus on FantasyPros as the 33rd WR in fantasy football, and has an ADP of around 83rd overall. This puts him being drafted in the late 6th, early 7th, rounds. The skepticism on this guy makes sense, as Parker took a while to get healthy last season, and he does catch passes from a quarterback named Ryan Tannehill. Once Parker did get healthy last season however, the Dolphin’s Y-receiver put on a bit of a show in South Beach. From Weeks 12-16 (the most important weeks of the fantasy season), Devante Parker put up 22 receptions for 445 yards and 3 touchdowns. This equated to 16.9 FPPG in PPR, and 12.5 FPPG in standard leagues. To put this in perspective, rookie favorite Amari Cooper averaged 12.48 FPPG in PPR, and 8.68 FPPG in standard leagues over the same span of games. The Dolphins were well off the playoff map by this point in the season, and Parker had not done much prior, so this increase in late-season production flew very much under the radar. Adam Gase also just came to town as the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins. One thing we know about Adam Gase is that he knows how to spread out the field and use each player’s unique skillset to the teams’ advantage. Think Demaryius Thomas, or Alshon Jeffery. This brilliant offensive mind at the helm of the Fin’s offense can mean nothing but good things for Parker. Don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on this stud come draft day, and also don’t be surprised if you see an Allen Robinson-like breakout season from him.
Gridiron Experts | Fantasy Football Staff Discussion & Debate: Rookies & Value Picks - Gridiron Experts