Week 1 Fearless Forecast
It’s hard to believe that the long offseason is finally over and that the real deal is finally back. Every NFL team is currently tied for first place, undefeated and vigorously supported by a rabid fanbase with visions of a Super Bowl trip to Houston in five short months.
Of course, that will all change soon. That optimism will be replaced with the reality that not every team is really all that good.
In an attempt to kick off the season in a bold way, I thought it would be fun to come up with a list of 20 bold predictions for the 2016 NFL opening week. Obviously. not all of these will happen, but with a few breaks, they are realistic possibilities.
Now, let’s get on to some hypothetical bets and real football.
1. Spencer Ware is a top-10 RB
No matter the format, standard, PPR or even DFS, Spencer Ware is a guy you want in your lineups this week.Ware looked liked Kansas City’s best back at times last year. In the four games that Ware got double-digit carries, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry and rushed for five touchdowns. With Jamaal Charles looking very questionable in the Chiefs’ opener, I’m expecting Ware to take the vast majority of carries against a San Diego defense that surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.
2. Julio Jones catches 10+ balls and scores 2 TD’s
Projecting Julio Jones as the top wide receiver is easy, but this seems like the kind of game where Jones will explode. The Bucs had their share of struggles against wideouts last season, allowing the seventh-most points to opposing receivers. Jones really thrived against this secondary and has lit up Tampa in this last two home games. I expect another huge week in the 2016 opener.
Year
Targets
Catch
Yards
TD
PPR
2014
11
9
161
2
34.2
2015
13
12
162
1
37.1
AVG.
12
10.5
161.5
1.5
35.6
3. Will Fuller will catch a long TD bomb
After observing all of the Texans’ preseason practices from the sidelines, I’m optimistic that Houston will be a pretty good offense this year. I’m especially high on RB Lamar Miller and I think we’ll see Bill O’Brien attack the weakened front seven for Chicago early and often. This will set up a play-action bomb to Fuller on a post route and the rookie will haul it in for his first career score.
4. The Packers and Jaguars will both exceed 30 points
Rev up your engines. Although both teams have made some nice addition to their defense, I think the offense will be humming in Florida. This game has the fourth-highest over/under on the board and I think they easily exceed it. Obviously, you start the big game games from this game, but TE Jared Cook, RB James Starks, TE Julius Thomas and WR Allen Hurns are all worth a look too.
5. Ryan Mathews finishes as a top-10 RB
The Eagles are trotting out a rookie QB and are moving from Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense to one that looks like it will be a bottom-5 paced unit under Doug Pedersen. That means Pedersen is likely to dial up a lot of runs for Mathews, especially considering Cleveland’s own deficiencies when it comes to stopping the run. Start Mathews with confidence this week.
6. Amari Cooper puts up top-5 numbers
Cooper already looked great as a rookie and with a years’ experience and solid offseason, he’s primed to take the next step. As for Week 1, the Raiders/Saints matchup has the highest over/under total for the week. Makes sense when you consider New Orleans’ defensive struggles last season. The Saints don’t have anybody in their secondary who can cover Cooper. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him put up 150 receiving yards this week and finish as a top-5 wideout.
7. Gio Bernard will be the best RB in the Jets/Bengals game
In what could be a lower scoring defensive battle, don’t expect Jeremy Hill to have a ton of success against a Jets’ D that gave up a mere four rushing scores last season. Instead, the Bengals are likely to use Bernard as a pass-catcher in the slot out of the flats. I also think the Matt Forte and Bilal Powell could put up disappointing numbers in this game for the Jets. Call it a hunch that Bernard makes an impact in the second half.
8. The Titans run for 200 yards and upset the Vikings
The biggest weakness for the Titans is in the secondary, but the Vikings aren’t really built to capitalize on that- especially now when we don’t know who will even be the starting quarterback. Meanwhile, Tennessee has a potential three-headed running attack with RB’s DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry along with QB Marcus Mariota and the Vikings were only average in terms of surrendering fantasy points to opposing rushers last season. The Titans pass rush poses enough of a threat that they may be able to stack the box and try to outrush the Vikings and win a low-scoring slugfest.
9. Mike Wallace has a big debut
Let’s face it- there isn’t a lot of appeal with the Ravens offense in Week 1. The team seems committed to the dreaded running back by committee and the receiving corps has been banged up and looks equally hard to predict. Enter Wallace, who has been the de facto WR1 throughout camp and still has enough deep speed that he can be dangerous when paired with QB Joe Flacco’s big arm. The Bills allowed the sixth-most points to opposing wideouts last season, so it’s easy to envision Wallace getting behind the coverage and catching a long touchdown in the season opener.
1o. The revenge of CJ Spiller
After last season, few people wanted anything to do with CJ Spiller this season and the much-maligned running back often went undrafted. But Spiller was simply not healthy last season and all indications are that not only is he finally healthy now, but he got plenty of time with the first-team offense throughout training camp and I expect that to carry over into the regular season. In a game that has the highest expected scoring on the entire slate, Spiller looks like an interesting flex play and decent candidate to catch 4-6 passes against the Raiders.
11. Isaiah Crowell is on the RB2 radar
The Eagles defense really struggled in all facets last season, including giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Hue Jackson has had success establishing a strong rushing attack everywhere he’s coached, and Crowell is the best bet to act as the Jeremy Hill-esque battering ram role for the Browns. There’s better than a 65% chance that Cleveland rushes for at least one touchdown, and odds are that Crowell will be the one that punches it in.
12. Philip Rivers will struggle
My love for Philip Rivers this season has been well chronicled, as I have the veteran ranked as our No. 6 quarterback for 2016. But as much as I love Rivers overall this season, this looks like the kind of game where he’ll struggle. The Kansas City defense is an intimidating unit and has fared really well against Rivers in San Deigo’s last two trips to Arrowhead Stadium.
Year
Score
Comp
Att
Yards
TD
INT
FPPG
2014
L 7-19
20
34
291
0
2
14.8
2015
L3-10
24
43
263
0
1
13.6
If you waited late to draft Rivers, a favorite strategy of mine, hopefully you quickly grabbed a backup that has a better matchup this week. Unfortunately, I see Rivers as a middling QB2 in the opener.
13. Ezekiel Elliott runs for 100+ yards
It might take him well over 20 carries, but the dynamic Dallas rookie rusher should be the focal point for a Dallas offense that is most likely to try to protect their rookie quarterback by establishing the run early and often. The Cowboys have won five of their last six against the Giants and will look to extend their winning ways and show they weren’t crazy for spending the No. 4 pick on a running back.
14. Dwayne Allen is a top-5 TE
Now that Coby Fleener is in New Orleans, Dwayne Allen should be Andrew Luck’s primary red zone target and that bodes particularly well this week as the healthy Colts face a Detroit defense that surrendered the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing tight ends.
15. Don’t count out the Dolphins
This looks like a lousy matchup for Miami, flying across the country to open the season in Seattle. But Adam Gase looks like he’s going to be a good coach and he’ll have his team ready for this game. Naming RB Arian Foster as the starter was big, but Miami’s signing of DE Mario Williams was an underrated move and gives the Dolphins a potentially ferocious D-line. I think the Dolphins will keep this game much closer than many expect.
16. The Cardinals easily defeat the Patriots
Bill Belichick is well-known for taking away what the opposing team does best and making them find other ways to beat the Patriots. The problem with that is that the Cardinals are an extremely well-balanced team, capable of winning with RB David Johnson or with the best receiving corps in football. Arizona’s defense also looks like one of the top units in the game and no doubt Chandler Jones will be motivated to prove that trading him to Arizona was a big mistake. I don’t see a New England offense sans Tom Brady having enough to hang with one of the two or three best teams in the league in their nationally-televised home opener.
17. LeGarrette Blount will do nothing
Overall, I like LeGarrette Blount this season. As the clear big back for Bill Belichick, he’s got a real shot at 8-10 rushing scores and RB2/flex value this season. But I want no part of Blount this week. The Patriots tend to abandon the run in favor of a short-passing game when the face teams with a strong front seven- like Arizona. I expect the Pats to run a ton of ’12’ sets and use RB James White on a lot of short passes en lieu of a running game. Keep Blount on your bench this week, but watch Miami’s D-line to see if Blount can be useful in Week 2.
18. DeSean Jackson goes off
Last year the Steelers allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and had a lot of coverage issues in the secondary. Those issues are likely to continue, especially with Pittsburgh’s offense currently missing their starting RB, WR2 and prized free agent TE. Jackson is a well-known boom-or-bust pick, but fully healthy in a promising matchup, Week 1 looks like a favorable week for him to get behind this secondary for a deep touchdown reception.
19. Jesse James will be a must-add for Week 2
With Ladarius Green gone for at least six games, the starting TE job in Pittsburgh belongs to second-year behemoth Jesse James. At 6-7, James is a potential red zone monster for a team that, minus suspended Martavis Bryant, is sorely lacking a sizable threat in that area. James has a good chance at catching 4-6 balls and making a big impression in and around the goal line. It QB Ben Roethlisberger can put up 2+ touchdowns in Washington, there’s a good chance James will catch one.
20. Todd Gurley approaches 200 yards
San Francisco’s run defense was already a disaster last season, allowing a league-high 21 touchdowns to opposing running backs. Now Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense is in town, meaning the beleaguered defense will likely be on the field for the most snaps in the NFL. That’s great news for Todd Gurley, who ran for 133 yards and a touchdown against this D last year. Expect Jeff Fisher to lean heavily on his superstar rusher and Gurley to approach 200 total yards with at least one touchdown.
Jody Smith | 20 Bold Fantasy Predictions for Week 1 - Gridiron Experts