I really have no desire to watch Kid Rock play golf. Fall off a Pacific cliff while attempting to swing a club? To quote the movie Django Unchained, “Gentlemen, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention.”
And if we’re involving musicians and movie stars whose talent on the links is questionable at best, it must be time for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
What’s not to love about this tournament? Split between three beautiful courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula) for the first 54-holes when pros and amateurs will be paired off prior to a cut, the scenery alone is entertaining. Although without Bill Murray in the celebrity field, I do feel a void that cannot be filled unless surfer Kelly Slater performs some kind of trick shot while riding a killer wave.
The professional field includes a lineup of past champions, such as last year’s winner Brandt Snedeker or Phil Mickelson, who will be looking for win No. 5 at this tournament.
With three days of play at different courses each day, and the courses of unequal par, any fantasy owners in leagues that require day-to-day changes should be aware of how each course plays, but also not be scared off by a higher score on one day. Ride your selection like Slater does a pipeline, and let’s take a look at some of the rocky dangers out there on the way to euphoria. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.
RISK
Recent form has changed how many may view several of my risky selections, but by no means does that mean don’t use them. Rather, it’s sort of a “buyer beware” tag that must be read before indulgence. In fact, I have no problem running out any of these five this week, and two actually do make many of my lineups.
Brandt Snedeker
As I outlined, Snedeker is the defending champion, and if you’ve read this column in past weeks, you’d know I’m still high on Snedeker despite his slow start to this season. Recently, he said he is 100 percent healthy after the freak knee injury suffered last November. It’s taken time for Snedeker to get going this year, unlike last, when he blistered courses for six straight weeks, culminating in a win at Pebble. He isn’t likely to duplicate that this week, but his touch with the flat stick means he can’t be discounted if everything begins clicking with his now-healed lower body.
Phil Mickelson
Lefty is one of those guys who can play bad for a couple weeks and will give us a quote such as, “I feel like my game is coming around and I’m really driving the ball well. I’m just not scoring well.” One week he’s off the radar and the next he wins a tournament. This could set up like 2012 when Mickelson performed ho-hum at the Waste Management Phoenix Open then won at Pebble Beach. And since the four-time Pebble champion has historically played well here even regardless of victory, there’s little to shy from. Oh, except for that back issue, which did allow him to play four days in Phoenix. There’s your risk.
Graeme McDowell
This will be McDowell’s first start of the calendar year and his first since early December. He’s played well in two unofficial PGA Tour events and well at the WGC-HSBC Champions tournament in November. Now he returns to the site of his only major championship title, the 2010 U.S. Open. But he hasn’t played Pebble Beach since then, and he’s only played the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on one occasion— 2006 when he missed the cut. I don’t like that he tends to hover near even-par and doesn’t shoot particularly low, especially for consecutive days. He’s a solid golfer to say the least, just don’t let the U.S. Open win fool you.
Jim Furyk
If Furyk can eliminate the one high round he shoots at this tournament, which typically occurs as the course rotation does, you could be looking at a top-10 finish. The last two years, it was a round in the mid-70′s that ballooned his finish. Even back in 2007, when he finished T6 at 11-under, it was a 76 on Saturday that ruined the 67, 65 and final-round 69 he put together. But seriously, how solid is Furyk’s game? He’s had a Hall of Fame career and even at 43-years old keeps posting strings of top-10 finishes.
Charlie Wi
This could be one of those “horse for the course” picks, but I get it if you don’t use him. He missed the cut last week and he’s been moderately successful in the weeks prior. But then you look at his history at Pebble Beach and you just wonder how it clicks as well as it does for him there. A T16 last year, solo second in 2012, and a host of other strong rounds mixed in throughout the years. And, yes, in his second-place finish he shot a Monterey Peninsula course-record 61 on the opening day. I may go for broke on Monterey with him and switch for other rounds to someone stable like Jimmy Walker, who has been just as much a horse for the course in his career (T3 last year, T9 twice before that).
REWARD
I’m not sure why Graham DeLaet isn’t playing this week, but given that Snedeker scored second at the WMPO last year and walked out of Pebble with a win the week after, the Canadian would be as close to a sure thing this week with his recent stretch of upward-trending hot play. But since he’s not, four big names takes center stage and one recent winner in this week’s batch of Reward selections.
Hunter Mahan
Sean Foley pupils just seem to need a few tournaments under their belt before they really begin swinging the club well from tee box to green. Like Tiger Woods, Mahan is one such pupil whose mechanics seem to be catching up to his talent. He opened his 2013-14 season in strong fashion at the WMPO and now looks to grab a victory at a spot where he’s had three consecutive years of top-20 finishes. This includes a solo second result in 2011. Last year, Mahan won the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships and the Shell Houston Open following weeks of casual results. I like him to finish in the top-10 and to me he’s the most secure golfer to navigate any course irregularities through consistent iron work.
Dustin Johnson
Born on the Eastern coast in South Carolina where he also attended college, Johnson seems to be at home on courses where the wind can blow and views of the ocean can be see. He already has a win in his first start of the season (World Golf Championships-HSBC CHampions), and he finished T6 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions after a month break so there’s zero worry now with this being the first tournament he’s played since the first week of January. Johnson may be the longest driver on Tour and has really compartmentalized his height into a consistent approach near the greens. Oh, by the way, he’s also a two-time champion at Pebble Beach (’09, ’10) and has a T5 (’12) since then. He’s my pick to win, yet again.
Jason Day
Though he has just one PGA Tour win to his name, Day has developed a reputation as a high-stakes player. If it’s a major, Day is usually in contention. And while this isn’t a major, what it does tell you is the Aussie is supremely close to being an every-day elite golfer. He finished sixth last year at 13-under and finished T14 in his go-round in ’09. He also didn’t miss a single cut last year and finished T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago at Torrey Pines.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth showed the golf world he should not be taken lightly by finishing second at the Hyundai TOC in January. He missed the cut at the Sony Open before putting together a top-20 at the Farmers despite a sore ankle. Now properly rested, Spieth is ready to tackle the course where he finished T22 in his second Tour start. He could get white hot any time and obliterate any notion of a sophomore slump.
Patrick Reed
Reed keeps building off of last year’s dream run to the FedEx Cup finale. If you haven’t read anything about him, I’ll spare the recap, but it’s still phenomenal to think how the former NCAA champion at Augusta State has put together two wins in such a short span of time with a wife as his caddy and Monday qualifiers as last year’s best friend. We’re now three tournaments removed from the site of his second victory at the Humana Challenge, but Reed shows no signs of slowing down. He finished T19 last week after a week to rest his ribs and he’s been such a great scorer recently it could be near impossible to leave him off a lineup this week for fear he could go super low once again. He shot 12-under last year, good for T7 in his debut at Pebble Beach.
RUIN
Many times, this Ruin bit is really for fantasy leagues such as Golf Channel’s where your Group 4 could have several names you’re unfamiliar with and you think “Oh hell, I’ll just take this guy.” It could be those little decisions that cost several hundred thousand in fictional winnings, especially through the course of year. Don’t think of any pick as a throwaway because history can tell you a lot. And a missed cut gets you nowhere fast.
George McNeill
Ranked 294th in the world, McNeill hung a T7 in his first start of the season at the Frys.com Open. But since he’s had a string of subpar outcomes, including a missed cut last week. At Pebble Beach in 2012, the year he won the Puerto Rico Open, he missed the cut, as he did the year before. Two MC’s in two tries? You can do much better.
Chris Stroud
Stroud just turned 31 a couple days ago and ranks 84th in the world. With T3 finishes twice this year and two-20′s, including last week’s WMPO, he may still have a solid career and get that first Tour victory. But Pebble Beach hasn’t been kind to Stroud. He’s missed the cut the last four years since a T6 in 2009 broke a string off two MC’s before that.
Geoff Ogilvy
There have been a couple times over the past year where Ogilvy, a seven-time champion, has resembled the golfer of his prime (mustache excluded). But to this point this season, he has missed two cuts and been a non-factor. A T29 at the WMPO last week was nice and netted him a little money, but with MC’s in two of his last three trips to Pebble, there’s nothing to suggest picking him is anything other than a tip of the cap to his career standing, not his current form.
J.J. Henry
Henry has missed his last two cuts, which is a significant trend downward with seven tournaments already under his belt this season. Last year at Pebble, he finished T69, and the year before missed the cut. And aside from a T15 finish in 2011, he has missed the cut five other times with no standout rounds dating back to the beginning of his career.
Vijay Singh
Looking back on history, Singh has had one truly good Tournament at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. That came in 2008 when he finished second in a playoff. But since then the 34-time Tour winner has done nothing of note, other than hover around the cutline. At 50, his best years are undoubtedly behind him.
As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!
This week’s picks
Yahoo!
A: P. Mickelson (S), P. Reed
B: H. Mahan (S), D. Johnson (S), J. Day, J. Spieth
C: C. Wi (S), J. Walker
(Last week: 184 points; Winter segment: 860 points; Rank: 3,508)
PGATour.com
D. Johnson, J. Day, H. Mahan, J. Spieth
(Last week: 535 points; Season: 1,909; Rank: 4,268)
Golf Channel
Group 1: D. Johnson
Group 2: P. Reed
Group 3: C. Wi
Group 4: T. van Aswegen
(Last week: $726,764; Season: $2,438,239; Mulligan: $63,115; Rank: 10,133)