Garcia’s exemplary Ryder Cup record should stand him in good stead this week
The Ryder Cup takes place on European soil this year in the shape of Gleneagles in Scotland, and it is Paul McGinley’s home side that are favoured by the oddsmakers with a number of high-profile absentees from the US team and some pretty rough looking form for Tom Watson’s captain’s picks. Furthermore, the last time a US team was victorious on European soil was back in 1993 at The Belfry, so there’s good reason to favour McGinley’s side this week.
Whilst the current odds for a European victory look largely justified, the end result of the 2012 Ryder Cup should be a warning to punters that things are rarely as predictable as they may look on the face of things. Suffice to say, although I like Europe’s chances here, I can’t be tempted to get involved in the outright market at a best price of 4/6.
CORRECT SCORE MARKET:
There are other ways of siding with Europe without having to wade in at an odds-on price. I toyed with betting on Europe to achieve a wire-to-wire victory at 5/2 which I think is entirely possible. However, although it’s a tricky market to predict, I think the best value can be found in the correct score market. In two of the last five Ryder Cups, Europe have won by a margin of 18.5 – 9.5. However, given the fact Tom Watson was the last man to captain a winning American side on European soil (in 1993), it would be little bullish to suggest a rout of the same proportions is likely this week. With that said, there’s little argument that the US team is weaker than the team of 2006 who only managed 9.5 points at the K Club so statistically-speaking there’s a good chance Europe can win by a handful of points. In this type of market, hedging is arguably the way to go, so I’m plumping for three correct score bets (two of which, incidentally, are the winning scores in the two Seve Trophies that Paul McGinley has captained).
3pts Europe to win 15.5 – 12.5 (10/1 Paddy Power)
2.5pts Europe to win 16.5 – 11.5 (14/1 Coral)
1.5pts Europe to win 17.5 – 10.5 (25/1 Betfair Sportsbook)
TOP COMBINED POINTS SCORER:
Sergio Garcia – I think it’s important not to just look at players’ overall Ryder Cup records, but their Ryder Cup records on home soil as opposed to US soil. Market leader Rory McIlroy has been in sensational form over the last couple of months but his record in his one and only Europe-based Ryder Cup (in 2010) doesn’t leap off the page. Ian Poulter would seem an obvious choice given his excellent Ryder Cup and indeed general matchplay record, but I’m plumping for another Ryder Cup specialist whose game has been in much better nick lately, namely Sergio Garcia. As well as playing some excellent golf in big events over the last couple of months, Garcia’s record reads 4-1-0 and 3-2-0 in his last two Ryder Cups on European soil (2006 and 2002 respectively) which makes him a very interesting prospect here. The Spaniard is available at a best price of 7/1 for European top points scorer, but given the fact a European has been top combined points scorer in 5 of the last 6 Ryder Cups, I think it’s worth chancing him in this market at better odds.
Sergio Garcia top combined points scorer 5pts win only (12/1 Paddy Power)
TOP DEBUTANT:
Jamie Donaldson – In a relatively weak looking top debutant market, Jamie Donaldson looks a stand-out bet to me. As well as having some decent Gleneagles course form to his name (finishing 6th and 3rd in the Johnnie Walker Championship in recent years), Donaldson played well in the winning GB & Ire side in the 2011 Seve Trophy, captained by McGinley himself. Most of all, Donaldson’s game is in excellent nick at the moment, coming to Gleneagles with current form reading 1-7-4 on European soil which should see McGinley give him the chance to prove himself. Ahead of him in the top debutant market, Jordan Spieth is clearly a superb talent, but comes here off the back of a third-from-last-place finish in his last outing at the Tour Championship and doesn’t have the team matchplay experience that Donaldson has under his belt. My concern over the other debutants on both sides (as well as general form concerns over Gallacher and Reed), is that they are unlikely to be presented with the opportunity to pick up many points by their respective captains.
Jamie Donaldson top debutant 5pts win only (9/2 Stan James)
TOP EUROPEAN/AMERICAN WILDCARD:
Ian Poulter – Ordinarily, wildcard selections take the shape of players who come into the Ryder Cup in a good streak of form without quite doing enough to qualify automatically. This year is a little different with arguably none of the wildcard picks on either side looking particularly strong in terms of current form. On the European side, Lee Westwood comes off the back of a pretty disappointing tie for 60th in the Welsh Open having closed with a 76. Next up, Stephen Gallacher has a wealth of Gleneagles form to his name but his missed cut in Wales really doesn’t bode well. My selection is therefore a no-brainer with Ian Poulter a Ryder Cup (and general matchplay) specialist and almost certain to play in all formats this week. The Englishman may not have been in red-hot form himself lately, but history would suggest we don’t need to worry too much about that where he’s concerned.
Keegan Bradley – On the American side, few could have argued with the selection of Hunter Mahan at the time Tom Watson announced his wildcard picks (coming shortly after Mahan’s win at The Barclays). However, since that time Mahan’s form reads 64-59-23 (with the latter coming in a field of 29) so there’s little to get excited about ahead of his trip to Gleneagles. Webb Simpson barely managed better than Mahan in his last two events, tying for 53rd at the BMW Championship and joining Mahan in a tie for 23rd two weeks ago at the Tour Championship. The final man, Keegan Bradley, bowed out of the FedEx Cup in unusual fashion – withdrawing from the BMW Championship with a self-confessed rules violation and maybe the extra time off will have helped him fine-tune his game. Although it’s not a dead-cert, there is a very strong chance Bradley will be paired with Phil Mickelson on at least a couple of occasions this week which immediately gives him an edge over Mahan and Simpson in my mind.
Poulter top European wildcard, Bradley top American wildcard 5pts double (4/1 Ladbrokes)