It’s official, Donald Trump is set to be the 45th President of the United States. Trump is incoming with an unprecedented relationship with Russia. I’m sure that sounds nice without elaboration, but when you actually dig into the nature of said relationship things start to get a little scary. Throughout the Presidential campaign, Trump denied ever having a relationship of any kind with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was debunked fairly soundly, with Trump himself having claimed in an interview a few years ago to have known Putin and engaged in a dialogue with him. Furthermore, Trump’s daughter Ivanka was a known associate and friend of Wendi Deng, rumored to be Putin’s girlfriend and the former wife of Rupert Murdoch.
Trump denied having any business involvement in Russia but leaked documents after his election suggested that was indeed a lie. Through Trump’s campaign, staff members were linked to the Russian regime, namely campaign manager Paul Manafort. Manafort was associated with Viktor Yanukovich, the former President of Ukraine who has long been considered a puppet of Putin. Again, in the campaign, it was alleged that a Trump campaign server was making connections with one out in Russia.
Trump also called on Russia to hack his political nemesis, the Democratic Party. It was also believed that the reason Trump refused to release his financial information was that it would show discreet loans from Russian-based investment firms with links to the Russian regime. As a final post-election silver bullet on this issue, Donald Trump also received what he calls a “beautiful letter” from Vladimir Putin congratulating him on his win. Despite having tried to deflect that he knows Putin, Trump has cozied up to him incredibly quickly since winning the Presidential race.
Now that we have established that Donald Trump is categorically a Russian puppet, you might be somewhat fearful about what will happen to the United States. Putin’s plans may be to discredit the country in the eyes of the world and force nations closer and closer to Russia as the world’s dominant superpower. This Machiavellian plotting on Putin’s part is to help set in a slow rot to the United States, so its economy, social fabric, and diplomatic ties begin to erode irreversibly.
Politicians of all sides fear this. While Trump may be the Republican’s “guy,” they know he’s a loose cannon and not part of their circle of insiders. Like Putin, the Republicans seek to control Trump. Control may be too strong a word, so perhaps a better descriptor would be that they aim to limit the damage he can do to the established order in the United States. This is where Congress comes in.
Congress, if there is sufficient support on the floor and across the aisle, can chew up any legislation Trump throws at them and spit it out like it was nothing. The Republican-led Congress pettily gummed up the works for any bill Barack Obama had hoped to pass, but now Congress may find itself being the driving force that fights for the survival of the United States as a significant world power.
The first order of business will be to make assurances and legislate in ways that give confidence to NATO-allied countries. Putin has long considered NATO a thorn in his side and even invaded Georgia in 2008 to get NATO off his doorstep. Similarly, his covert actions in Ukraine were to push NATO back from the Baltic States. Putin’s prize at the moment are exactly those States, as he seeks to seize territory and resources to help establish Russian interests further and further into Europe. Trump has advocated for withdrawing from NATO due to the cost of it and criticizing the smaller States like the ones in the Baltic for not paying enough into the system to enjoy the benefits.
Even ignoring the fact that these countries cannot possibly afford the defense NATO allows, Trump is essentially trying to turn NATO into a blackmailing system, and failing that will drag the United States out of the alliance; leaving the Baltic vulnerable. If either situation occurs, Putin wins. Blackmailing the Baltic will make the United States look terrible worldwide, but if NATO is decimated, Putin can easily install puppets because the Baltic will fear Russia’s military might with no adequate defense.
Congress can also combat Russia’s vast expansion into cyber warfare by legislating for increased powers, resources, and capacity to fight back on the battlefield of the future. Given how the election was dominated by leaked information that can be traced back to Russia or Russian proxy groups like Wikileaks, it seems the United States has been asleep at the wheel on this issue. Russia’s cyber warfare tactics are well ahead of the US right now, but with the correct legislation, they can be pushed back significantly.
These actions may not sound like much, but they are going to be useful in holding back the calculated decisions being whispered into Trump’s ear by Putin. It aims to bolster defenses against cyber attacks while at the same time ensuring any changes to NATO commitments are vetoed.
It has to be said that none of this will genuinely improve relations with Russia. So long as Putin is in power and making machinations for political and military power worldwide, the United States and Russia cannot truly be firm allies. The long game must be played with Russia, which includes traditional, friendly diplomacy. While ties have gotten worryingly cold over the last decade, the kind of relationship between Trump and Putin is not the kind you want to replace it with. It is a dangerous game that could end very badly for the United States in the long term, even if it does mean a short term thawing of communication with Russia.
While the Cold War was a battle for ideological dominance, it is hard to place what exactly Russia intends to get out of its attempts to exert influence on the rest of the world. While the land grabs in Georgia and Crimea were prizes for them, ultimately it doesn’t seem like that’s their final goal for all this.
Russia is technically capitalist now, but the regime works effectively like the mob. It could be Putin is just an ambitious criminal who likes to puff himself up and revel in unparalleled power. Perhaps egotism is what made Trump and Putin such good friends. Whatever the final plan Russia has, though, it can be assured that Congress will not allow it so long as they prove a threat to American interests.