Each year, we take a moment in early January to look back on the topics that surfaced multiple times in the previous year and what we anticipate talking about in the coming 12 months. These conversations are topics our readers tell us (via interaction and page views) that were important to them and will likely be of interest moving forward.
Four of our five predictions from last year continued to be relevant throughout 2015. The one about VR still doesn’t have resolution, but represents the question most frequently asked with regard to the fledgling technology.
Looking back on 2015
Consumers will remember the lessons of fall 2014’s failures
As expected, consumers were not quick to forgive publishers that sold broken games. While Microsoft and 343 Industries made a splash with Halo 5, owners of The Master Chief Collection continued to bring up its ongoing problems.
It’s likely that the longer gap between new Halo games saved Halo 5 from a disastrous launch. Instead, 343 took the top spot in the October NPD report, which represents United States retail traffic.
Ubisoft wasn’t so lucky. Despite being technically sound, Assassin’s Creed Syndicate met with weaker sales. “Clearly in our first week we were impacted by what happened with Assassin's Creed Unity," said Ubisoft chief financial officer Alain Martinez.
Releases this year seem to have fared better, but there were blemishes. Warner Bros. is facing a critical eye from its PC consumers after the catastrophic failure of Batman: Arkham Knight on that platform. The game was removed from sale for months due to serious problems, giving Steam’s new refund procedure a workout.
The current console generation is defined
At the start of 2015, we stated that this would be a formative year for the current console generation. In the past 12 months, we’ve seen Sony’s lead solidified (likely for the remainder of the hardware cycle). Microsoft has decided to abandon console shipment reporting, as head of Xbox Phil Spencer says he’s more invested in rebuilding the brand.
And while there are still gaps between resolution and framerate on the two consoles, that hasn’t received quite as much emphasis. Attention has instead focused on secondary features like backward compatibility and emulation, as well as the games themselves.
Who will Nintendo be in 2015?
In 2014, Nintendo started to rouse from its slumber. Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros., and Amiibos all gave the publisher a much needed adrenaline injection. Unfortunately, the subsequent delay of The Legend of Zelda and Star Fox out of 2015 put the brakes on again.
Nintendo spent most of 2015 signaling that the Wii U’s days are numbered. The company formally announced its next console, currently codenamed “NX.” It also struck a deal with DeNA to finally appease investors and take a crack at the mobile sector.
This year was also marked by tragedy for the company, as president Satoru Iwata passed away due to cancer. The publisher named former Nintendo of America president Tatsumi Kimishima to lead the House of Mario into the NX era.
Publisher business models will adapt to survive
The last year was marked by a major transition in how publishers approach and discuss their businesses. As we mentioned in our Gaming Trends of 2015 feature a few days ago, we’re seeing a more substantial transition from a goods-based to a service-focused industry.
This is emerging in part as in-game cosmetic transactions, smaller live events for online games, and a shift away from player base-fracturing DLC. But microtransactions aren’t the only major changes we’ve seen.
Other models have been explored that bridge traditional premium offerings and free-to-play. Bethesda transitioned The Elder Scrolls Online to a subscription-optional offering. You still need to purchase the base game, but recurring revenue is derived from cosmetics and content purchases (either a la carte or as part of the monthly premium account service).
Blizzard made a big move with World of Warcraft, also. While that game still requires paid game time each month, you can now use in-game gold to purchase tokens that extend your play time. Alternatively, you can purchase a token with cash and sell it on the auction house as a way to earn spending money for your toon.
We also saw a major shift when Blizzard experienced a huge spike with the release of the Warlords of Draenor expansion, followed by a plummet by just under 50 percent in the months following. As a result, Blizzard will not be reporting subscription statistics moving forward.
Publishers and customers are in it for the long haul these days. That means added expenses for updates and server maintenance. This in turn suggests (as it has over the past 12 months) that players should anticipate monetization methods to pop up that were previously unheard of outside of free-to-play games.
The true cost of virtual reality will determine success
This discussion is still a wild card, but cost is one of the most common questions any time virtual reality comes up. Right now we only know vague details.
Oculus CEO Brendan Iribe told us that you’ll be able to get a VR-compatible computer and Rift kit for about $1,500 at retail. That price could be significantly lower if you build your own. We anticipate that high-end PC manufacturers like Origin and iBuyPower will have their own Rift-ready products.
Sony and HTC haven’t said much about pricing on PlayStation VR and Vive. The most we know is that Sony suggests that its VR solution will likely cost as much as a new console.
Read ahead for the conversations we expect we’ll be having in the new year.