Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 3rd through November 7th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 3rd through November 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, November 2nd
8:00am CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift
8:00am USD Daylight Saving Time Shift
Monday, November 3rd
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:30am AUD Building Approvals -11.0% versus -0.9% expected. The currency fell.
2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 50.4 versus 50.4 expected.
10:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.2 versus 51.5 expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.0 versus 56.5 expected. The currency rose.
6:50pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, "We will never know how bad things would have been without that aggressive, coordinated policy response. But as a student of economic history, I can say that all the ingredients of a second Great Depression were present. We’ve managed to avoid that extreme scenario, but the damage wrought by the Great Recession has been brutal nonetheless. By the end of last year, the loss to global output from the crisis was roughly US$10 trillion, which is close to 15 per cent of global GDP. Today, there are over 60 million fewer jobs around the world than had the crisis not occurred." The currency fell.
Tuesday, November 4th
1:30am AUD Retail Sales 1.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30am AUD Trade Balance -2.2B versus -1.78B expected. The currency rose.
4:30am AUD Cash Rate Decision 2.50% versus unchanged at 2.50% expected. The currency rose.
4:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, "The exchange rate has traded at lower levels recently, in large part reflecting the strengthening US dollar. But the Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the further declines in key commodity prices in recent months. It is offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy. Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years." The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 79.2K versus 23.4K expected. The currency rose.
10:30am GBP Construction PMI 61.4 versus 63.5 expected. The currency rose.
2:30pm CAD Trade Balance 0.7B versus -0.7B expected. The currency fell.
2:30pm USD Trade Balance -43.0B versus -40.0B expected. The currency rose.
3:27pm NZD GDT Price Index -0.3% versus 1.4% expected. The currency rose.
4:30pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that, "Some observers have commented that the considerable monetary policy stimulus around the world may be sowing the seeds for the next financial crisis. Certainly financial stability risks, especially those related to household imbalances, remain a concern to us here in Canada. But our economy faces significant headwinds and continued monetary policy stimulus is needed to offset them in order to achieve our inflation objective. It is our judgment that our policy of aiming to close the output gap and ensuring inflation remains on target will be consistent with an eventual easing of household imbalances." The currency fell.
10:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
10:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 5.4% versus 5.5% expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, November 5th
3:30am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, "During these 15 years of deflation, a view that prices will not rise or that they will decline moderately has been embedded among people. This is referred to as a deflationary mindset, or deflationary expectations. Once such a deflationary mindset is embedded, firms and individuals behave in a manner in line with it, and thus deflation and economic stagnation become protracted in a self-fulfilling manner. In order to escape from such a vicious cycle, it is necessary to drastically convert the deflationary mindset that took root among people by way of monetary easing that is totally different from past policies. The QQE aims to exert such an effect." The currency fell.
10:30am GBP Services PMI 56.2 versus 58.5 expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 230K versus 214K expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.1 versus 58.2 expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, November 6th
1:30am AUD Employment Change 24.1K versus 10.3K expected. The currency fell.
1:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 6.2% versus 6.1% expected. The currency fell.
10:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B versus unchanged at 375B expected. The currency fell.
1:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate Decision 0.50% versus unchanged at 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
1:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision 0.05% versus unchanged at 0.05% expected. The currency fell.
2:30pm CAD Building Permits 12.7% versus 5.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Mario Draghi said that, "Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, and in line with our forward guidance, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Following up on the decisions of 2 October 2014, we last month started purchasing covered bonds under our new programme. We will also soon start to purchase asset-backed securities. The programmes will last for at least two years. Together with the series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations to be conducted until June 2016, these asset purchases will have a sizeable impact on our balance sheet, which is expected to move towards the dimensions it had at the beginning of 2012." The currency fell.
2:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 278K versus 285K expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 51.2 versus 59.2 expected. The currency fell.
Friday, November 7th
1:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “Volatility in global financial markets has risen over recent months, after a prolonged period of being especially low. The timing of this increase in volatility has been somewhat asynchronous across various asset classes, and there have been no obvious triggers for some of these moves. Nevertheless, a combination of persistent weakness in the European economy and further divergence in the outlook for monetary policy among the largest economies – including as a result of significant new balance sheet expansions announced by the European and Japanese central banks – have been contributing factors." The currency rose.
2:30pm CAD Employment Change 43.1K versus 0.4K expected. The currency rose.
2:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.5% versus 6.8% expected. The currency rose.
2:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 214K versus 229K expected. The currency rose.
2:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 5.8% versus 5.9% expected. The currency rose.
Saturday, November 8th
Tentative CNY Trade Balance has not yet been released, 35.6B expected.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EURUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.25076 open to a 1.24102 close.
USDJPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 112.938 open to a 112.741 close.
GBPUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.59721 open to a 1.58325 close.
AUDUSD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.87568 open to a 0.87243 close.
USDCAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.12766 open to a 1.13518 close.
NZDUSD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7774 open to a 0.7733 close.