Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 18 2013
All eyes on the last FOMC meeting of 2013, expect taper speculation to reach fever pitch
Wednesday sees the publication of the German IFO business climate index, expected in at 109.7. The UK publishes its latest claimant count figures, predicted to be down 35.2 K month on month. The expected percentage unemployment claimant count is expected in at 7.6%. The UK's BoE MPC reveals the votes on interest rate setting and quantitative easing both expected in as unanimous votes. ECONFIN meetings continue through the week, whilst the Swiss ZEW sentiment index is published. In the afternoon session attention turns to the USA data, housing starts data is predicted in at 0.91 million year on year, whilst crude oil inventories might have the capacity to shock again with the previous week's figure coming in -10.6 m barrels. Then attention turns to the FOMC and the expected news regarding the potential taper, the Fed's base rate decision will be announced expected to remain at 0.25%, thereafter the FOMC will deliver an explanatory statement and deliver their economic projections. The DJIA closed down marginally by 0.06% at 15875 on Tuesday, SPX down 0.31%, NASDAQ by 0.14%. European indices suffered a sharp selloff over the two trading sessions on Tuesday; STOXX 50 down 1.24%, CAC down 1.24%, DAX down 0.86%, FTSE down 0.55%. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.08% at the time of writing (10:00pm UK time), the SPX future is down 0.42%, NASDAQ down 0.27%. STOXX future is down 0.97%, DAX future down 0.62%, CAC future down 1.00%, FTSE future down 0.33%. NYMEX WTI oil is down 0.38% on the day at $97.11 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas is up 0.02%, COMEX gold sold off sharply by 1.15% at $1230.10 per ounce, silver on COMEX is down 1.02% at $19.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 102.67 yen mid-afternoon New York time Tuesday, after touching 103.92 yen on Dec. 13th, the strongest level since October 2008. It was little changed at $1.3768 per euro. The 17-nation common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.36 yen. The dollar traded at almost a five-year high versus the yen as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting that may will result in a reduction of currency-debasing stimulus. The Aussie fell 0.4 percent to NZ$1.0773 after earlier touching the weakest since October 2008. It was 0.5 percent weaker at 88.98 U.S. cents. The Aussie dollar fell to a five-year low versus New Zealand’s currency as the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its most recent meeting that it maintained the option to cut interest rates. The pound fell for a fifth day versus the dollar on Tuesday after a government report showed U.K. consumer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed in November to the lowest level in four years. Sterling declined 0.2 percent to $1.6267.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. Claimant Count Change (Oct)
2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Oct)
2013-12-18 19:00 GMT | US. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-12-18 19:30 GMT | US. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-18 04:25 GMT | USD/JPY hits 103.00 on high-volume Nikkei 225 rally
2013-12-18 02:31 GMT | GBP/USD on the rise ahead of the Fed; 1.6317 is ST “correction resistance”
2013-12-18 01:40 GMT | AUD/USD: Rally finds resistance at 0.8930
2013-12-18 01:06 GMT | EUR/JPY surges from weekly lows
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37748 LOW 1.37627 BID 1.37709 ASK 1.37714 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.3792 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3814 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.3832 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3746 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3729 (S2) and 1.3709 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3792, 1.3814, 1.3832
Support Levels: 1.3746, 1.3729, 1.3709
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.62888 LOW 1.6262 BID 1.62839 ASK 1.62846 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the resistance level at 1.6309 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.6260 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 1.6244 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.6228 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6309, 1.6333, 1.6353
Support Levels: 1.6260, 1.6244, 1.6228
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USDJPY :
HIGH 103.034 LOW 102.564 BID 102.954 ASK 102.958 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 36:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 103.11 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 103.28 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 103.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Neutral market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome next support level at 102.64 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our intraday targets at 102.46 (S2) and 102.24 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 103.11, 103.28, 103.42
Support Levels: 102.64, 102.46, 102.24
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )