The fireworks were flying last week as George McNeill carded an emotional 9-under Sunday round that included an ace and seven birds. In the end, Angel “El Pato” Cabrera got things done, as he won his first non-major PGA TOUR event. El Pato posted back-to-back top 25s before winning last week, but other than that, this win basically appeared out of thin air. Those were his only two top 25s of the season, and he hadn’t posted a top 10 since last year’s Travelers Championship.
This week we head to Silvis, Illinois, which is basically in Iowa. It’s less than 10 miles from the Iowa border, and about 100 miles from the Wisconsin border, so it’s easy to see why Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker have feasted on the competition here. The Course is TPC Deere Run, a par 71 that stretches out to 7,268 yards. The field is extremely weak, which makes the favorites stand out that much more, but also increases the chances for a no-name to finish near the top.
Correlated Stats
Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker take control of the winner stats, so it’s important to look past just the winners when looking at stats. This week we will find adjusted scoring average, par 3 scoring, par 4 scoring, bogey avoidance, and strokes gained-t2g as the most important stats to look at.
Strokes gained-putting is important, but don’t get caught up on it. Stricker in 2009 and Sean O’Hair in 2005 are the only two (of last 9) winners that failed to gain at least 4 strokes putting the week of their JDC win. However, the past nine winners all gained at least 11.71 strokes over the field. On average, John Deere Classic winners have gained 42.93% of their strokes on the putting surface. That means the majority of strokes are still likely to be gained tee-to-green.
Over the past three editions, only four (of 34) top-10 finishers have finished the season outside of the top 100 in par 3 scoring average. It’s not the end of the world, but this may be a red flag for Martin Flores, Charles Howell III, Brian Davis, Brendon de Jonge, and Kevin Streelman.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson
The Travelers – Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, Marc Leishman
Sony Open – Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner
Valspar Championship - John Senden, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald
Zurich Classic – Seung-yul Noh, Billy Horschel, Jason Dufner
The Travelers, Sony, and Zurich are all easy courses with weak fields. Cha-ching. No wonder the result correlate nicely with the John Deere Classic. The Valspar has some monstrous greens, averaging 8,900 sq. footage, very similar to John Deere which average 8,000 on the green sizes. There are plenty of other connections, but just make sure you don’t over-emphasize these, they are primarily used for tie-breaking scenarios.
Players to Watch
Steve Stricker: Mr. John Deere won this tourney three years straight, but his laid-back approach to golfing these days makes it hard to expect another win. Even so, you should expect to see him post at least one low round and find himself in the top 25.
Zach Johnson: The recent form is disappointing, but that has never mattered when it comes to the John Deere Classic. This is his fifth major, and he brings his A game year in and year out.
Jordan Spieth: Will he have a letdown in his first attempt at defending a PGA TOUR title? Based on his pressure performances, I would say he doesn’t buckle under pressure. We could have a repeat on our hands.
Ryan Moore: After the big three, Moore gets my nod for #4 this week. However, our friend Joel Harrington at 4DeepBlog gave him the kiss of death by naming him Bust of the Week. He’s been on fire all year with these busts, so that worries me just a little.
Jerry Kelly: The Midwesterner always gets it done at the JDC. He has a very Stricker-esque approach to scheduling, sometimes withdrawing or planning his schedules around his family events, but this is one that he circles on his calendar every year. Look for Kelly to make his presence known this week.
Jordan Niebrugge: Currently sitting in 6th place in the Amateur Golf Rankings, this Wisconsin boy is a youngster with plenty of upside. He met fellow Wisconsite, Steve Stricker, at the Masters and plans to follow in his footsteps when it comes to success at the John Deere Classic. This is one deep sleeper to keep a close eye on this week.
Camilo Villegas: He’s made the cut each of the past two John Deere Classic, but has lost 7.101 strokes-putting on the way. Assuming he kept that average of 3.5 strokes lost-putting, he would need to gain at least 16 strokes tee-to-green in order to win. That’s just not going to happen, so while his Greenbrier performance may put him on many gamers radars, I won’t even consider this week.
Ben Martin: Remember when Martin posted that 62 at this year’s Zurich Classic? That’s proof that he feels comfortable in a shootout. He’s finished 21st or better in five of his last eight events. It wouldn’t be shocking if Martin made TPC Deere Run the site of his first PGA TOUR win.
Bryce Molder: He’s gained a ridiculous amount of strokes with the flat stick in his last four trips to TPC Deere Run. That makes him an interesting option this week. However, his 7-of-9 missed cuts since his W/D for personal reasons at the Valero Texas Open makes him someone I just can’t take a chance on.
Brian Stuard: Stuard looks like a mess lately with five straight MCs, but he is someone I will always plug-and-play on easy courses. His last eight results on courses that played a stroke-under-par or easier on average: 43rd-5th-15th-67th-128th-4th-10th-5th. Yup, that’s 5-of-8 top 15s. Need more ammo? How about his track record vs. weak fields. He’s earned top 25s in eight of his last 16 tournaments when the OWGR strength of field is less than 250, including top-6 finishes in three of his last four. This week the SoF is 166. #SLEEPER
Martin Flores: Marty Floor has six top 20s since the beginning of March. If you look at his SGP at TPC Deere Run over the past two seasons, you’d expect to see another top 20. In the 2013 John Deere Classic, he gained 4.965 strokes with the flat stick. Not bad, right? Then have a look at 2012 when he gained 7.003 strokes on the putting surface. It’s safe to say Flores feels very comfortable around these greens. Oh yea, he’s also Under Armour sponsored, so he gets a boost in my book for style.
Kyle Stanley: In case you missed it, read the handpicked value plays from yesterday’s DraftKings Edition.
Billy Hurley III: He’s posted back-to-back top 10s but those were just his fifth and sixth top 10s of his career. I’m not saying he can’t post another top finish, but now that he has his PGA TOUR card sealed up and qualified for the Open Championship, a letdown may be in the works this week.
Searching for First PGA TOUR Wins: For people chasing maiden PGA TOUR wins, here is my list of most likely to breakthrough this week: Brendon de Jonge, Ben Martin, Kevin Chappell, Chris Stroud, David Hearn, Martin Flores, Daniel Summerhays, Luke Guthrie, Brian Stuard, Patrick Rodgers, Tyrone Van Aswegen, Scott Langley, Billy Hurley III, .
My Top 25 for the 2014 John Deere Classic
1. Jordan Spieth
2. Steve Stricker
3. Zach Johnson
4. Ryan Moore
5. Harris English
6. Brendon de Jonge
7. Chris Kirk
8. Kevin Na
9. Ben Martin
10. Charles Howell III
11. Kevin Streelman
12. Kevin Chappell
13. Chris Stroud
14. Jerry Kelly
15. Robert Garrigus
16. David Hearn
17. John Senden
18. Daniel Summerhays
19. Luke Guthrie
20. Retief Goosen
21. Jason Bohn
22. Brian Stuard
23. Martin Flores
24. Scott Langley
25. Billy Hurley III
FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Greenbrier Contest to win $2,500
Fantasy Golf Contests
DraftKings: Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.
GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.
GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.
Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.
DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.
DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.