You’ll have to excuse me if my knowledge of last week’s Memorial Tournament is a little vague. I spent all weekend tucked away in the mountains enjoying my first taste of true mountain golf. My friend and I started off bright and early with a round at The River Course at the Keystone Resort before ending our day with 18 holes of Raven Golf Club at Three Peaks in Silverthorne, Colorado. The scenery was breathtaking and really put me in the mood to get back on the grind and crush it this week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
The St. Jude Classic is played in Memphis, Tennessee, at TPC Southwind. A par 70 course that stretches out to 7,239 yards according to this year’s scorecard. That is a lengthy course for a par 70 which explains why driving distance is so important. If you’re not overpowering the course this week, you better be striping all the fairways and gaining 2+ strokes per round on the putting greens.
Correlated Stats
I’ve narrowed down the stats this week to driving distance, par 3 scoring average, par 4 scoring average, strokes gained-T2G, and scoring average before the cut. These are my primary focus, but was also intrigued by the following trends:
Putting is usually a useful stat to look at but that’s just not the case this week. If you look at the results over the past three years you will see that 46% of the golfers that finished in the top 10 entered the week with a negative strokes gained-putting. If you look at the top 25 then it goes down to 39% and only 29% for golfers that missed the cut. I’m not suggesting that you target only poor putters this week, but that trend is the opposite of what you see week in and week out on the TOUR. Putting really is a non-factor this week, as the correlation is basically zero.
When putting is less important, that also means tee-to-green is more important. These two go hand-in-hand. According to Mark Broadie in Every Shot Counts, the average PGA TOUR winner gains 35% of their strokes on the green and 65% from tee-to-green. The median ratio of the last nine winners at TPC Southwind is 23/77 in favor of tee-to-green play. When Dustin Johnson won in 2012 he earned 95% of his strokes before the green. Woody Austin had the same ratio in 2007. For this reason, I’m taking a hard look at strokes gained-T2G this week. Current top 10 strokes gained-T2G in the field are: Dustin Johnson, Harris English, Kevin Stadler, Boo Weekley, Russell Knox, Phil Mickelson, Charles Howell III, Ryan Palmer, Zach Johnson, and Robert Streb.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
Memorial Tournament – Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods
PGA Championship – Jason Dufner, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley
The PLAYERS – Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar
U.S. Open - Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy
Sony Open- Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner
Since 2008, golfers who do well in these tournaments also do well at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. The reasons why can vary. Some of them are schedule based (Memorial, US Open). While others could be due to a par 70 course (Sony Open), Bermuda Greens (PLAYERS, Sony), or difficulty (PGA Champ, Memorial, PLAYERS, US Open).
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson: DJ is the man to beat this week. He’s won here before (2012) and followed it up with a 10th place finish last year. He leads the field in tee-to-green play with a 1.51 strokes gained-T2G on the season. There is a lot of rain in the forecast, and that is just more good news for DJ backers. He has a rediculous 300.3 yard carry distance so he won’t need the extra roll of dry fairways and softer greens will help out his short-game which can be inconsistent to say the least. Another win this week would frustrate OAD gamers as they will have to choose between this and Pebble Beach next year.
Patrick Reed: This top 5 golfer is getting no respect, and rightfully so. He’s disappeared off the leaderboards since making those comments, but this should be a track that gets him back on track. It should help clear his mind that his wife recently had her baby.
Webb Simpson: Another guy who went cold during the end of his wife’s pregnancy, but he should be ready to go again. Par 70s versus a weak field is the perfect place to target Webb Simpson, and that is exactly what this week entails.
Russell Henley: Speaking of guys to target at par 70s, Russell Henley is your man, at least from what we’ve seen early in his career. In 10 starts on par 70 tracks, Henley has two wins and a median finish of 28th place.
Matt Every: A par 70 course where accuracy is of least importance, seems like a great fit for this Florida Gator. I was surprised to see he missed the cut in his first attempt at TPC Southwind (2010), but I don’t think he suffers the same fate this week. I think he’s a good pick to contend that is certainly under the radar after his recent play.
Billy Horschel: Another Florida Gator who I like this week. It appears to be mental with Billy Ho as you can see him thrive versus weak fields like we have this week. Since 2012, his average finish in weak fields is 33rd while his average finish is strong fields is 56th. He was around 22/1 here last year before finishing T10, and he entered this week around 50/1 but has since shortened to around 30/1 at most books.
Kevin Kisner: Was featured in my DraftKings preview yesterday but found out today that he has quite the schedule coming up. He has a ton of upside this week but his wife being a week away from her due date puts him into too much risk. The last thing you need is to get Mahan’d by a mid-tourney child birth.
Phil Mickelson: If lefty can manage the par 3s somewhat, he should be in contention come Sunday. Phil loves to peak right before majors, which is another great sign for Phil backers this week.
Ryan Palmer: A bomber who has finished top 5 each of the past two years, and has just two missed cuts on the season. Sounds too good to be true.
Charles Howell III: Maybe it’s a swing change or maybe it’s a new driver, but Chucky Three Sticks has gained nearly seven yards on his drives this season, and this is the perfect place for that to come in handy. He finished 3rd here back in 2011 and 9th in 2004, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him near the top yet again this week.
My Top 25 for the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Zach Johnson
3. Phil Mickelson
4. Ryan Palmer
5. Harris English
6. Graeme McDowell
7. John Senden
8. Charles Howell III
9. Billy Horschel
10. Freddie Jacobson
11. Lee Westwood
12. Webb Simpson
13. J.B. Holmes
14. Boo Weekley
15. Robert Garrigus
16. Martin Flores
17. Paul Casey
18. David Hearn
19. Kevin Stadler
20. Russell Knox
21. Robert Allenby
22. Russell Henley
23. Patrick Reed
24. Cameron Tringale
25. Shawn Stefani
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