What are the chances of the Welsh pulling off just their second win over the Boks this weekend? BetFlash will only give you 13/10 on a win for Wales, suggesting a fairly tight contest!
Tank Lanning
And the Boks are back! Along with a whole host of international rugby … Some of it complete moose (I see BetFlash have not even deemed the Georgia vs Canada game worthy of even 3 way odds – thankfully), but some of it pretty damn spicy, especially the Boks vs Wales, All Blacks vs France, and England vs Argentina …
The Bok side looks powerful, even if a little P Divvy like! Perhaps a few concerns around debutant Frans Malherbe at tighthead, and how returning Boks Jaque Fourie and JP Pietersen will fit in, both in terms of form and playing the slightly more attacking game that coach Heyneke Meyer has been trying to implement, but it is a big (perhaps the biggest ever?), physical side that should have enough in the tank to deal with anything that the Northern Hemisphere can throw at them.
And with the Welsh only having ever beaten the Boks once, it might seem a foregone conclusion, but the last 4 games between the 2 sides have seen the Boks literally just scrape past the coal miners … Hence the 3 way odds being tight:
Wales – 13/10, Draw – 19/1, South Africa – 13/20
Only 13/10 on a Welsh win … You would need to drop a fair amount of risky cash on an upset win to get any real return … But how about that draw at 19/1? R20 bucks down and you get 2 cases of beer back!
Or how about a fade from either of the sides …
South Africa up at ½ time and game ending in a draw – 45/1
Wales up at ½ time and game ending in a draw – 50/1
Both of those look a little tempting at those odds … R10 down and you get 4 cases of beer back!
The other 3 way odds for the weekend:
England – 1/8, Draw – 265/10, Argentina – 5/1
France – 4.25, Draw – 235/10, New Zealand – 0.15
Ireland – 0.23, Draw – 25/1, Samoa 3/1
Italy – 34/10, Draw – 225/10, Australia – 0.21
Scotland – 1/20, Draw – 32/1, Japan – 78/10
Perhaps the Argies to win the Falkland war this time round? How about the Brave Blossoms to fire up the Scots for the Boks next week? Both pretty unlikely …
And to show how certain BetFlash are, they will only give you 11/10 on all of AUS, ENG, SA, IRE, and the Kiwis winning their games this weekend!
It changes to 15/2 if you think the Welsh might upset the Boks though … Some sneaky Bok Radio Flashpots worth a gander – CLICK HERE
And a look again at the other 2 very cool FlashPots up on the site. The first one is the total points difference between the Boks and all of Wales, Scotland and France in the 3 games:
SA to win by 0 to 3 – 9/2 (Was 4/1 last week)
SA to win by 4 to 7 – 4/1 (Was 3.75/1)
SA to win by 8 to 11 – 3.25 (Was 3/1)
SA to win by 12 to 15 – 3/1 (Was 2.25/1)
SA to win by 16 to 19 – 5/2 (Was 3/1)
SA to win by 20 to 23 – 7/2 (Was 4/1)
SA to win by MORE than 23 – 3.25/1 (Same)
And the other FlashPot is the total points to be scored by the Boks in all 3 of their games on tour:
SA Total Points 50 to 54 – 4 (Same as last week)
SA Total Points 55 to 59 – 3.5 (Same)
SA Total Points 60 to 64 – 3 (Same)
SA Total Points 67 to 71 – 2.5 (Same)
SA Total Points 72 to 77 – 2.75 (Same)
SA Total Points 78 to 83 – 4 (Same)
SA Total Points 84 to 88 – 5 (Same)
SA Total Points More than 88 – 3.25 (Same)
We will obviously have a MUCH better idea of how these are going to pan out after this weekend’s round of games, but I still can’t see the Boks losing any of these 3 tour games. Boks to win by 20 to 23 while scoring between 84 and 88 points is what I said last week, but I might need to adjust my total points scored downwards. Sadly, as that comes down so do the odds shorten … Until we get to between 50 and 54 points for some reason, so perhaps that is the call?
And at 3.5 and 4 to 1 respectively, there is still a little tom to be made on those two, R20 on each and you walk away with R150 if they come off. Not quite the 1.8kg of extra mature rump at Food Lovers you would have got last week, but still enough to impress with at a bring and braai!
All above odds available on the BetFlash site …
My weekend predictions:
CANADA to beat Georgia by 9
AUSTRALIA to beat Italy by 12
ENGLAND to beat Argentina by 9
SCOTLAND to beat Japan by 9
FIJI to beat Portugal by 7
SOUTH AFRICA to beat Wales by 7
TONGA to beat Romania by 5
IRELAND to beat Samoa by 9
NEW ZEALAND to beat France by 18
NEW ZEALAND MAORI to beat USA by 19
Times and teams for the TV games:
Saturday 09 November
16:00 Italy vs Australia, Torino
Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Tommaso Benevenuti, 13 Luca Morisi, 12 Alberto Sgarbi, 11 Leonardo Sarto, 10 Alberto Di Bernardo, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Robert Barbieri, 6 Alessandro Zanni, 5 Marco Bortolami, 4 Antonio Pavanello, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Davide Giazzon, 1 Michele Rizzo.
Bench: 16 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 17 Matias Aguero, 18 Lorenzo Cittadini, 19 Quintin Geldenhuys, 20 Joshua Furno, 21 Tobias Botes, 22 Tommaso Allan, 23 Tommaso Iannone.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Rob Simmons, 5 James Horwill, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga’a, 17 Benn Robinson, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Nic White, 22 Christian Leali’ifano, 23 Joe Tomane.
16:30 England vs Argentina, Twickenham
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Joel Tomkins, 12 Billy Twelvetrees, 11 Ben Foden, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Chris Robshaw (captain), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 David Wilson, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler.
Bench: 16 Tom Youngs, 17 Alex Corbisiero, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Geoff Parling, 20 Ben Morgan, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Toby Flood, 23 Alex Goode.
Argentina: 15 Lucas González Amorosino, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernández, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolás Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamón (captain), 7 Pablo Matera, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Mariano Galarza, 4 Patricio Albacete, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Eusebio Guiñazú, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Bench: 16 Santiago Iglesias Valdez, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 19 Manuel Carizza, 20 Benjamín Macome, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Gonzalo Tiesi, 23 Santiago Cordero.
19:30 Wales vs South Africa, Millennium Stadium
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 12 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Bench: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Justin Tipuric 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 James Hook, 23 Ashley Beck.
South Africa: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Flip van der Merwe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Bench: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 JJ Engelbrecht, 23 Willie le Roux
19:45 Ireland vs Samoa, Lansdowne Road
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Fergus McFadden, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (captain), 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Mike McCarthy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath.
Bench: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Paul O’Connell, 20 Sean O’Brien, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Dave Kearney.
Samoa: TBA
22:00 France vs New Zealand, Stade de France
France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Florian Fritz, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Maxime Medard, 10 Remi Tales, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Wenceslas Lauret, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (captain, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Pape, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Yannick Forestier.
Bench: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 20 Antonie Claassen, 21 Jean-Marc Doussain, 22 Camille Lopez, 23 Gael Fickou.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Ben Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Charles Piutau, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Bench: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ryan Crotty.