Good afternoon. A spectacular spring day today with an increasing south wind and temperatures quickly starting to warm up. As of noon we’re already into the 70s as expected and before the day is done highs should approach 80°. There will be a weak cold front nearby Monday and then a somewhat stronger set-up for storms sometime Tuesday into Wednesday AM.
Forecast:
Tonight: Clear and mild with lows closer to 60°
Sunday: Variable clouds, windy and warm with highs near 80°. South winds of 20-35 MPH are likely. Minimal rain chances during the day but a stray shower or storm I guess is possible after 5PM or so. In my opinion <20% for any one spot around KC increasing to about 30-40% later tomorrow evening
Sunday night: Some showers and fading storms are possible in the KC area. It’s certainly not a slam dunk that we get he rain but at least some of us may. Rain chances are higher towards the west and NW/N of the KC area up towards NW MO and NE KS. There may even be a marginally severe type storm up there as well. Odds are not favoring severe storms in the more immediate KC area.
Discussion:
Yesterday we were fighting quite a few clouds at this time. They were in the process of breaking up…today however that is not the case as skies are bright and blue. The visible satellite picture below confirms that nicely.
The main weather stories over the next 5 days will be 1) a weakening cold front that will slowly move through the KC region on Monday then quickly retreat northwards on Tuesday. 2) a potential upper level storm (and the reason for the quick retreat of the front) moving into the central Rockies Tuesday into the northern Plains on Wednesday 3) a BIG jump in surface dew points and eventual instability through the Plains. Strong surface moisture advection will be taking place sending dew points well into the 60s in the region later Tuesday into Wednesday AM 4) and outbreak of severe storms…timing of which is still a question for the KC area and elsewhere. The data today is already subtly different than yesterday and that will continue to be a trend through Monday at least. It appears the severe risk in KC is later Tuesday not earlier…and may even be pushed till later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. 5) there is still no way of telling how much severe weather will be an issue on the KC area…the timing changes already are showing up so there are more twists and turns coming I’m sure. Storms that fire well west of the area and get here after hours and in the middle of the night are typically wind/hail producers more than anything else…again let’s wait on this situation.
So with all the items above…wait and monitor approaches are the best. I’m already seeing some internet “chatter” about all sorts of terrible weather scenarios possible…and again how KC plays into that remains to be seen.
Let’s first start with tomorrow evening/night. A cold front will be dangling in the Plains west of KC (by more than an significant distance). Storms should develop with that front west of Manhattan. Here is the 7PM hi res NAM model showing some storm activity out there…also note the isolated activity closer to home. I’m not sure that is accurate but I guess I can see a way it could happen.
7PM Hi-res NAM model showing the forecast radar look.
The activity out west will move towards the ENE and NE and into NW MO…odds favor a lot of this to stay away from KC. I wouldn’t be shocked IF we got little to nothing from that development and stay dry into Monday. There may be fading showers MON AM in the area and certainly more clouds. The instability will be decent out to the west later tomorrow…then fade fast as the sun sets tomorrow evening.
7PM Sunday CAPE forecast. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher values represent more instability that can be released in an uncapped environment
Locally these CAPE values never get very high and droop quickly later Sunday evening indicating a more stable atmosphere closer to home and weakening storm potential as they get closer to KC.
On Monday that front to the west will be dangling closer to the KC area…and with temperatures forecast to be well into the 70s…this will lead to more instability. Here is the CAPE forecast for 4PM Monday off the NAM model.
On this model the front extends from north-central MO to near St Joe to the Topeka area.
The model really doesn’t fire up much convection in this set-up. Aside from the front there isn’t a lot above the surface to fire things off…and there is evidence of a cap that could prevent the updrafts from going too crazy so that could be a deterrent to convection as well. I still think it’s worthy of a 20% chance though…fronts in April with lots of surface moisture around just bother me.
Then the bigger potential of Plains storms sets up sometime Tuesday…the SPC is watching this region.
SPC forecast for severe weather chances on Tuesday into Wednesday 7AM
Notice that the higher risk resides out towards central KS southwards into the Red River area of far north central KS.
This is a classic Plains set-up for severe weather…the only issue seems to be timing and how much daylight there will be for storm chasing and where the worst storms would be. That corridor from Wichita to OKC though may be jam packed with storm chasers.
We’ll deal more with that scenario in tomorrow’s blog. It’s a day we should pay attention too though…especially Tuesday evening/night I think here in KC. Whatever forms out there would move toward the ENE…also there should be a warm front in the region and should storms fire up with that…then we could see some severe weather as well. So a few players on the field for Tuesday…
We’ll try and get a bit more specific tomorrow into Monday about those chances.
Finally a couple o relevant tweets to share with you
Note: #US #tornado season probabilities typically peak over the Southern Plains in month of #May #OKwx #TXwx #KSwx pic.twitter.com/O6WgmvJVPP
— Johnny Kelly (@stormchaser4850) April 22, 2016
Some of these on the Plains States are going to start rising in the next week or so… https://t.co/r9DAPfrTB0
— TornadoTitans.com (@TornadoTitans) April 22, 2016
Have a great weekend and the next blog update will be before 2PM on Sunday
Joe