Source: JT Long of The Mining Report (5/13/14)
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/what-will-shake-retail-investors-out-of-their-shell-shock
Mining companies competence usually have one some-more year of tough going. Speaking about what he calls “the tray of a branch point,” John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online creates a box for sell investors to demeanour severely during find scrutiny while watchful for metals prices—gold in particular—to pierce behind into a supercycle. In this talk with The Mining Report, Kaiser shares a names of underpriced gold, china and zinc juniors with staying power, and explains given scandium is a steel that could save a world.
The Mining Report: The last time we talked, we approaching that a commodity supercycle would reappear in 2017. Does that meant 3 some-more years of tough going for mining companies?
John Kaiser: we would contend mining companies have one some-more year of tough going, not three. We are in a transition zone.
China and a U.S. are weaning their economies off a interventionist kick that followed a 2008 crash. China has curtailed a infrastructure impulse module and is pulling in a shade banking system. Its genuine estate marketplace is cooling off; a genuine estate burble implosion would significantly harm a Chinese economy. The U.S. continues to finish quantitative easing. The deteriorate feed resolution to a Great Recession and a unavoidable doubt compared with it has disheartened businesses from creation a poignant collateral investments that kindle employment, and disheartened banks from lending to consumers.
Uncertainty will insist by a transition. Metal prices will languish. Right now, we’re operative by a stockpiles generated in a final 5 years as a outcome of new cave supply mobilized in response to a aloft steel prices of a past decade and weaker-than-expected demand. It will take about a year to know if a weaning routine is over, and a economy is flourishing organically again. If we are growing, metals prices will climb up, along with a valuations of mining stocks. After one some-more year of misery, a light ceiling trend for a mining territory will top with a supercycle being behind on lane in 2017.
TMR: What about enlargement in Europe?
JK: Europe is a problem child. It listened to a purgation summons call of a semi-libertarian ideologues, and put a Eurozone into a unequivocally delayed liberation mode. Now, it is grappling with deflation and a brawl between Russia and Ukraine. The Eurozone is unequivocally contingent on tender element reserve from Russia. Russia depends on a income from a sales of oil, gas and other materials to Europe. If a problem does not get resolved, both sides will be hurt. Overall, we do not see any good assistance for a tellurian economy entrance from a Eurozone.
TMR: Do a new Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) association filings endorse your topic from final year about a approaching disappearance of as many as 500 companies from a Venture sell (TSX.V)? Are a healthy companies a usually ones left?
JK: The statistics are grim. Of a 1,700 companies we cover, 40% have disastrous operative capital. These are zombie companies, still listed and trading, nonetheless in no position to emanate new wealth. Another 20% have between $0–500,000 ($0–500K) operative capital. To me these paint good bottom-fishing domain given a marketplace has already combined them off as destiny zombie companies. Unfortunately, these statistics do not nonetheless embody a Dec. 31, 2013 annual filings for about 600 TSX.V-listed companies. Once we routine those filings, we will know what a numbers are. we design them to be worse given monthly financing activity among a apparatus juniors is behind to what it was in 2003 and during a six-month tray straddling 2008-2009.
To date, about 600 youth companies sojourn in reasonable financial shape. But even they demur to spend money, given they don’t see any easy approach to reinstate it solely in a box of superb results. The whole thought of a try collateral marketplace as a appropriation apparatus is stalled. In a deficiency of ceiling trends in metals prices, this creates it tough for investors to be confident about a sector. And with tiny income going into find exploration, a chances of a world-class find that brings investors regulating behind are low.
TMR: How do we establish if a association competence be one of a survivors?
JK: Ideally, it will have sufficient collateral to continue to allege a awaiting in a subsequent year, be that an scrutiny play or a cave expansion play. It competence have copiousness of operative collateral or it competence have farmed a devise out to another association with low pockets to allege a project, nonetheless worrying about what a marketplace in ubiquitous is doing.
TMR: What are a many vicious factors someone reading your association profiles should demeanour for?
JK: It’s a customary threesome of people, collateral and story. Is there a well-rounded group of people involved? For this to be a case, a association needs sufficient operative collateral to compensate salaries that will keep a technical and executive teams total and during work. You also need collateral to allege a project. And of course, there has to be something constrained about a story.
On a scrutiny side, that story would be a devise or an thought that creates investors trust that a association can boost a batch cost 10, 20 or even 30 times—a find play. The story behind an existent deposition would be a grades and cost structure that could concede a deposition to be grown during stream prices. However, during stream prices, many of a projects in a hands of juniors are not unequivocally exciting. Their projects have turn options on aloft steel prices.
The devise for investors now would be to buy juniors, accumulate them divided and wish they do not get bought adult inexpensive by bigger companies formulation to register them until a steel cost cycle turns positive.
TMR: Which companies listed in Spec Value Hunter do we cruise to be good values?
JK: Among companies with modernized deposits, Clifton Star Resources Inc. (CFO:TSX.V; C3T:FSE) usually finished a prefeasibility investigate on a Duparquet devise in Québec, that resolved that vigour burning is a best approach to routine a ore. However, with a $1,300 per unit ($1,300/oz) bottom box bullion price, a after-tax net benefaction value (NPV) of $135 million ($135M) and inner rate of lapse (IRR) of 12.1% aren’t high adequate to get vehement about. This is an instance of a association treading water, watchful for a aloft bullion price. we suggest it to people who trust that bullion is going behind to $1,500+/oz. At that cost Clifton Star’s NPV and IRR boost almost and a stream $15M marketplace gratefulness will grow by multiples as a youth becomes a buyout target.
TMR: If that’s a gold-going-to-a-higher-price story, what about a story on another metal?
JK: Zinc could rise a tolerable uptrend in a subsequent few years. Zinc never unequivocally rallied like nickel and copper did during a final decade. The mining attention responded to both copper and nickel. Only China responded to zinc, that helped put zinc into a doghouse as distant as cost is concerned.
Several vital Western zinc deposits are depleting. China’s ability to ramp adult a zinc supply has stalled and will approaching go into shelter as China addresses a wickedness problem.
In a rest of a world, it will take time to rise a vast zinc deposits given they are in remote locations and will need infrastructure development.
I have pinned my hopes on InZinc Mining Ltd. (IZN:TSX.V) and a West Desert zinc deposition in Utah, one of a some-more development-friendly states. It usually finished a rough mercantile comment (PEA) for a unfolding that includes magnetite as a payable byproduct. That almost altered a economics of this project. Its mining devise now includes zinc, copper and an vicious magnetite credit. Indium stays a potentially payable vicious steel byproduct. The association is removing prepared to lift income for some-more enlargement drilling, that will set a theatre for a prefeasibility investigate subsequent year. Because it’s a smaller-scale project, it could be grown by 2017-2018, by that time we design zinc to be in a poignant supply deficit, labelled above $1.20 per pound.
TMR: Interesting. What else is building in a U.S.?
JK: we have been following Adamera Minerals Corp. (ADZ:TSX.V). Formerly in a uranium and plain scrutiny sector, a integrate years ago Adamera began to concentration on eastern Washington. Several good-grade bullion deposits were exploited there in a past, nonetheless there has not been poignant informal scrutiny for utterly a few decades. Adamera has a clever technical group and a series of a shallower targets teed adult for drilling this season. It has a good possibility of pulling a kind of initial intersections that will attract sell investors. The batch has a low marketplace top and estimable upside. It needs to get out of a trap of being stranded with financing during unequivocally low prices and diluting divided a upside taken on by a early-stage investors. While a unequivocally low valuations of scrutiny juniors offer unequivocally large upside in a eventuality of a find hole, a downside is that a upside competence get diluted divided by a high cost of delivering that find hole.
TMR: Its batch cost is adult from January. Does being in an ancestral mining area seductiveness to investors?
JK: Yes. You can make discoveries 3 ways. One is informal scrutiny that looks during aspect anomalies in a form of mineralized outcrop or dirt geochemical anomalies. You beget targets by prospecting a out-of-date way, conducting dirt sampling surveys, and even examining satellite images for justification of alteration halos, that vigilance that potentially ore combining liquid upsurge took place.
The second approach is to use worldly geochemical or geophysical methods and unpractical meditative to beget targets that are dark underneath empty cover. That is difficult, costly and outward a ability of many juniors given it requires worldly geology and drilling. A furnish or backhoe are invalid for blind targets.
The third is to demeanour during aged districts where smaller-scale mineralization such as bullion veins were found and exploited prolonged ago by mom-and-pop-scale operations until a easy pickings were depleted. When we lapse with complicated geological models and cavalcade for revoke class in a context of a aloft steel price, we can come adult with a bigger territory within what had been discharged as a tiny potatoes system. Adamera belongs in this third difficulty of find scrutiny strategy.
TMR: Is there an instance in Europe of a association regulating one of those strategies successfully?
JK: Avrupa Minerals Ltd. (AVU:TSX.V) is regulating a second strategy: looking underneath cover rocks. It picked adult a square of a Iberian Pyrite Belt in Portugal, a 240-by-35 kilometer belt that runs from southern Portugal into southern Spain. It hosts some of a world’s biggest polymetallic volcanogenic large sulfide (VMS) deposits. One of these is a Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK) deposition found in Roman times. Another is Neves Corvo; a second biggest VMS deposition in a universe after Kidd Creek, found usually 40 years ago.
In this partial of Portugal, younger cover rocks problematic a impending horde rocks. The Alvarade awaiting has been explored a satisfactory bit in a final 20 years, nonetheless success. Avrupa’s Paul Kuhn grown a speculation about given prior scrutiny strategies unsuccessful to find anything meaningful, and he captivated Antofagasta Plc (ANTO:LSE) as a farm-in partner. Avrupa spent a final few years and some-more than $4M of Antofogasta’s income contrast his theories. In Feb 2014, it reported a initial new VMS intersection found in a final 20 years in a Iberian Pyrite Belt.
Avrupa detected a new VMS territory underneath 90 meters (90m) of empty stone cover and is regulating Antofagasta’s collateral assisting to infer a discovery. It is drilling around this initial intersection to see how a geology and a geometry work. It is not a vital deposition yet, nonetheless a diversion of focused scrutiny is now on. we design that, within 12 months, Avrupa will have a 20% net seductiveness in a world-class VMS discovery.
TMR: What is a matter on that project?
JK: You wish to see signs that government understands a geometry of a find territory within a internal geology, that in a Iberian Pyrite Belt can get unequivocally messed adult with faulting and folding. Neves Corvo consists of 8 detached bodies, that approaching were all partial of one physique that got ripped detached by tectonic forces. The final partial was found usually a few years ago. Watch for a pointer that Antofagasta is following adult a new six-hole module with a vital program. Then, it will be usually a matter of time before a large intersection clinches a find as a vital one.
TMR: Avrupa also works in Kosovo. Do we watch a projects there as well?
JK: Yes. Avrupa picked adult a series of geologically earnest areas in Kosovo, a integrate of that have been farmed out to other parties. It did a same in a Erzgebirge of southeastern Germany, before East Germany, that had been explored essentially for tungsten. These sheeted brazen tungsten systems mostly have a poignant bullion component. This is an instance of devise series three: looking during aged districts from a new perspective.
TMR: Let’s pierce to Canada. Which companies there use these strategies?
JK: Probe Mines Limited (PRB:TSX.V) has been one of my Top Picks. It is a hybrid story. On a one hand, it has some-more than 4 million ounces (4 Moz) of 1 gram per ton (1 g/t) gold, that can be open-pit mined, nonetheless not unequivocally profitably, during $1,300/oz gold. One gamble here is that bullion goes behind over $1,500/oz and a marketplace afterwards assigns value to these ounces.
But in a final year, a story has been a find of a high-grade territory fluctuating southeast of a low-grade zone. The association tracked that by drilling from a corner of a lake final summer. Its winter drilling module extended a territory for another 600m and recently expelled results. The marketplace responded negatively to a formula due to a miss of high-grade intervals that were seen where it stopped drilling during a summer. The suppositional wish had been that a territory would freshness in class and breadth as it plunged deeper. Instead, a territory continued with a revoke grade, identical to other tools of a zone. That reduced a wish for a 5-10 Moz high-grade complement behind to a 1–2 Moz intensity demonstrated by drilling final year.
The stock’s new shelter reflects a market’s beating over this outcome, nonetheless a jury is still out on a blue sky potential. Probe designed a winter drilling module according to a apparent thrust of a high-grade zone. This involves thickening a ice for optimal cavalcade pad locations. Partway by a program, government satisfied that a zone’s thrust intended off. The drills were intersecting a revoke class down-dip pouch of a zone, rather than a high-grade core that dazzled a marketplace final year. But it was too late to ready new cavalcade pads given winter in Canada came to an end.
The suppositional upside has been nude out of a batch for now, nonetheless Probe skeleton to cavalcade several pointed holes from a lake seaside to join up-dip where government now thinks a high-grade mineralization is still present. Confirmation would revive confidence that a prolongation will supplement many mineable high-grade ounces. Meanwhile, we are watchful for an NI 43-101 apparatus guess for a high-grade zone. We wish it comes in during 1–2 Moz with a class of 4–6 g/t. A PEA approaching during a finish of Q3/14, will uncover what subterraneous mining would cost. In 3 to 5 years, a time to assent and build a medium 2,000 tons per day (2,000 tpd) subterraneous mine, bullion is approaching to be aloft than $1,300/oz. At that point, a cave could be fed with additional ore from a low-grade zone.
TMR: With a batch cost down right now, is this a bottom-fisher opportunity?
JK: The apparatus guess is approaching in early June, during a latest. There is debate right now about a correct cutoff class indispensable to emanate a mineable resource. Some analysts use a 4–6 g/t cutoff. It they go that high, a deposition shrivels and does not demeanour unequivocally valuable. Management wants to use a revoke cutoff grade, around 2.5 g/t, that would emanate a incomparable resource. It will be a duty of costs. So Probe’s Borden bullion devise has shifted to a feasibility proof story.
For a moment, we courtesy Probe as a Buy during a stream price, nonetheless we will have to revisit this recommendation after a NI 43-101 apparatus guess is expelled to see how poignant a upside is.
TMR: Let’s switch to scandium. What’s a supply and direct design going forward?
JK: Scandium is sincerely abounding in a earth’s membrane nonetheless it does not combine good in a demeanour of reduction abounding metals such as lead. When it’s alloyed during unequivocally low percentages, 0.5%, with aluminum, it creates a ensuing amalgamate most stronger. It has an anti-corrosion characteristic, good conductivity and is most some-more feverishness resistant. If a $100 billion ($100B) aluminum attention had a arguable annual supply of hundreds of tonnes of scandium oxide, there would be no prerequisite of applications regulating aluminum scandium alloy, that end-users would rush to commercialize.
Unfortunately, a universe usually produces about 10 tonnes of scandium oxide annually from a mixture of byproduct sources that are not scalable. Emerging byproduct sources embody certain titanium dioxide estimate operations in China. Another source is in situ leaching of uranium deposits in Russia and Kazahkstan, as good as nickel-cobalt operations in a Philippines. Tests are underway to see if scandium can be recovered by a remediation of red mud, a poisonous rubbish combined when bauxite is converted into alumina. The usually primary scandium cave was a Zhovti Vody deposition in Ukraine, that was partial of an iron cave in that a Soviets detected 100 g/t scandium that they exploited to make aluminum scandium amalgamate for their MiG warrior jets. The supply conditions of 10 ton per annum (10 tpa), even during a $2,000/kilogram ($2,000/kg) price, has an insignificant value of $20–40M/year. But over a final 6 years scandium-enriched laterite deposits were detected in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia during or nearby aspect with grades of 200-500 g/t.
I have high hopes for EMC Metals Corp. (EMC:TSX). It is $3M divided from owning a Nyngan deposition in New South Wales, that has a apparatus during $2,000/kg, $9B in situ value and a stone value of $800/ton on a 100% liberation basis. According to my suppositional income upsurge indication of this system, a cave producing usually 50 tonnes annually could be value $200M. But there is a chicken-and-the-egg problem: If there is no supply, there is no demand, and nobody wants to put adult collateral for something that does not have an offtake agreement. The aluminum amalgamate attention isn’t peaceful to assistance EMC. It wants to see a scandium first.
But Bloom Energy, formed in Silicon Valley, has grown a plain oxide fuel dungeon that relies on scandium to revoke a heat of a Bloom Boxes. This would revoke a high upkeep cost that prevented plain oxide fuel cells from commercialization as a approach to modify healthy gas into electricity most some-more good than typical combustion.
Bloom reached an commissioned ability of 100 megawatts (100 MW) final year. That would usually have consumed about 7 tons of scandium oxide, nonetheless if a annual sales doubling trend continues, annual direct could be 20–40 tons scandium oxide by 2017. This could outcome in a matrimony of prerequisite between EMC Metals and Bloom. If Nyngan can be in prolongation by 2016-2017, it solves Bloom Energy’s supply problem. we would also design a aluminum attention to be interested.
Until unequivocally recently, EMC Metals has been an intensely unsure collect given it had a marketplace top of usually $5M nonetheless indispensable to lift $3M by Jun 24 to secure a Nyngan asset, on that it has finished feasibility work given 2010. What altered during a past week was news from EMC Metals that it has finished a new scandium oxide find not distant from Nyngan in Australia with identical grades and a tonnage footprint sufficient to accommodate Bloom’s needs for a subsequent decade. The Honeybugle find can be fast-tracked in place of Nyngan, nonetheless it is still vicious for EMC Metals to acquire Nyngan. But with a marketplace top of about $15M reflecting both a value of Honeybugle and a choice it has on 100% of Nyngan, it should be most easier for EMC to lift a $3M merger cost and another $3-4M indispensable to broach a feasibility investigate by a finish of 2015.
TMR: Is Bloom articulate with EMC Metals about that funding?
JK: Bloom Energy has been in discussions with EMC Metals given 2010. The talks derailed in 2012 when a pretension brawl arose over EMC’s merger of a interest in Nyngan, during that point, Bloom Energy did an offtake agreement with Metallica Minerals Ltd. (MLM:ASX) for Metallica’s lower-grade Lucknow deposition in a volume of 20–30 tons scandium oxide and an choice for another 30 tons. But Metallica could not scale down to usually furnish 20–30 tons. It attempted to find another offtake partner for a surplus, nonetheless could not.
Bloom has finished deals with Chinese titanium oxide producers, nonetheless a byproduct reserve are incremental and can't be scaled up. If Bloom Energy is going to succeed, it needs a primary supply that can pledge it 30–50 tpa scandium oxide.
I like a Bloom story given it’s about creation things some-more fit and utilizing an appetite source of that America has a flourishing supply, healthy gas. Solid oxide fuel cells have a smaller CO dioxide footprint than required explosion of healthy gas. As Japan looks during ways to equivocate chief energy, including a import of liquefied healthy gas, it becomes an apparent and large marketplace for Bloom’s technology.
TMR: Could a other Australian scandium devise be a partner for Bloom?
JK: Yes, indeed. In 2011, Platina Resources Ltd. (PGM:ASX), detected a Owendale scandium deposition along with a bullion system. The bullion grades aren’t high adequate nonetheless to clear development, nonetheless Platina lifted income to remove a bulk representation for metallurgical studies on a Owendale scandium deposit, that is detached from a bullion zone. In about a year, we’ll know some-more about a metallurgy.
As with singular earths, metallurgy and mineralogy are pivotal factors. Owendale will have a class tighten to 400 g/t. The doubt is either a disproportion between 300 grams (300g) and 400g is wiped out given a ore has a aloft calm of magnesium and other acid-consuming elements. The companies have to cruise a class and whatever else scandium-enriched ore contains. The cost of removing absolved of a other things competence change out a class difference.
Nonetheless, this is a estimable resource. Now that Metallica has returned to a sketch house with Lucknow, EMC’s Nyngan deposition has a first-mover advantage, that we doubt Platina’s Owendale will overtake. Owendale will arrive to offer a alumnimum-scandium amalgamate market. The finish users wish to see mixed sources of ore-grade, primary scandium deposits so they are not reliant on a singular source. The conditions is opposite from singular earths in that no suggestive scandium supply now exists, nonetheless there is a implicit intensity expenditure of 500-1,000 tonnes scandium oxide annually by 2025. There is a foe underway now to be a celebration that reserve Bloom’s needs, nonetheless a unequivocally execution of this foe will awaken direct from a aluminum-scandium amalgamate sector, so that a runner-ups collect a same prize.
Those juniors with scandium deposits grading 300 g/t or improved do not need to gash any other in a back, as singular earth juniors felt compelled to do given their idea was to any supply a world’s incremental direct growth. It will be a while before a lot some-more deposits are found, even if New South Wales undergoes a scandium rush.
TMR: You cruise investing in scandium an investment in changing a world. How will scandium make a universe a improved place?
JK: If airlines converted a skins of a planes and all a brackets into aluminum-scandium alloy, it would revoke a weight by 15–20%. That would severely revoke fuel consumption. It competence even convince a airlines to postpone their unequivocally unwelcome devise to supplement a fifth chair to a center quarrel of their abroad aircraft.
Ford is producing aluminum-based pickup trucks to assistance it strech a 2025 aim of 54-mile-per-gallon fuel efficiency. Apart from fiddling with a engine and aerodynamics, a usually approach we can do that is shortening a weight of a vehicle. Even electric cars would advantage from a lighter weight that does not scapegoat safety. Unlike other metals such as beryllium, that show conspicuous properties to alloys, scandium is not toxic. It is not mostly that apparatus juniors can definitely change a universe by anticipating and building a mine. Scandium is that opportunity.
TMR: What’s your summary for a Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in June?
JK: It’s a hapless summary that we seem to be in a fourth year of a apparatus territory bear market. Without significantly aloft bullion prices, it will be formidable for companies to lift collateral for feasibility proof or find scrutiny nonetheless a cost of appalling dilution.
Investors need to demeanour for stories that can attract capital, even if it involves a rollback and dilutionary financing.
We’re in a tray of a branch point. Stock prices are approaching to break again in a summer doldrums. It will be an glorious bottom-fishing opportunity, generally with so many companies clearly sidelined. But there will be foe from high-net-worth groups looking to dip a improved stories. Minority shareholders will see their interest reduced, as their companies get rolled behind and refinanced by new money.
Going forward, there will be event to make poignant money, nonetheless 700 companies will be left in a dust. They have no story. They will be shells watchful for whatever a movement traders are peaceful to raise into next.
TMR: John, interjection for your time and insights.
John Kaiser, a mining researcher with 25-plus years of experience, produces Kaiser Research Online. After graduating from a University of British Columbia in 1982, he assimilated Continental Carlisle Douglas as a investigate assistant. Six years later, he changed to Pacific International Securities as investigate director, and also became a purebred investment adviser. He changed to a U.S. with his family in 1994.
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DISCLOSURE:
1) JT Long conducted this talk for Streetwise Reports LLC, publisher of The Gold Report, The Energy Report, The Life Sciences Report and The Mining Report, and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee. She owns, or her family owns, shares of a association mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in a talk are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Clifton Star Resources and Probe Mines Limited. Streetwise Reports does not accept batch in sell for a services or as sponsorship payment.
3) John Kaiser: we possess or my family owns shares of a following companies mentioned in this interview: InZinc Mining Ltd., Adamera Minerals Corp., Avrupa Minerals Ltd., and EMC Metals Corp. we privately am or my family is paid by a following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My association has a financial attribute with a following companies mentioned in this interview: None. we was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions voiced are my possess comments and opinions. we had a event to examination a talk for correctness as of a date of a talk and am obliged for a calm of a interview.
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