This week’s Challenger: Pete James
Our third challenger to go up against The Mathematician is FBO contributor Pete James. A life-long fan of Arsenal FC and a keen follower of football in the Premier League and other divisions, it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on in this weeks challenge. As usual, Pete gets to take his pick on the weekend’s Premier League games using 20% of the Challenger’s pot.
James’ Value Bets recap
A good week for our Challenger, TomFBO, whose correct picks raise the pot to £166.75. The Challengers’ now overtake the Value Bet Strategy which drops to £148.33 after losses for the third week running. Several people have been in touch to ask what has gone wrong with the Value Bet Strategy over the last few weeks. After the early season successes and rapid profits, the pot has dropped from its maximum of £210.14 in Week 6. With the Value Betting Strategy, there will be weeks of loss as well as weeks of profit. As I have said all season; long term strategies take time.
This weekend is overflowing with value for the potential punter, with a fantastic selection of games to bet on. The standout fixture of the weekend has to be at the Emirates, where Arsenal take on a Liverpool side enjoying their best start to a season since 2008. After a couple of cup losses at home, I expect Arsenal to get back to winning ways, and 13/10 with William Hill represents a decent punt. Super Sunday brings us a couple of tasty fixtures with the South Wales derby, and Everton at home to Tottenham. The Toffees are looking to continue their good form against a Tottenham side who have won just two of their last twelve games against them. Everton have dropped only two points all season at Fortress Goodison, and I recommend putting a few quid on them, with William Hill offering a good value 6/4 for the home win. Please see below for the full list of this weekend’s Value Bets and, as always, check out the FBO Odds Comparison Tool for the best odds available.
Value Bets
Home Win
Away Win
Draw
Top 5
Home Fave
Random
Challenger
0
£100.00
£100.00
£100.00
£100.00
£100.00
£100.00
£100.00
1
£101.84
£90.08
£120.01
£89.41
£92.00
£93.36
£94.61
2
£110.05
£98.96
£106.72
£94.38
£92.00
£93.20
£87.25
3
£116.27
£106.18
£102.17
£82.63
£95.31
£102.66
£89.45
4
£112.79
£99.24
£93.94
£92.12
£101.60
£91.23
£81.78
5
£145.53
£93.04
£116.52
£73.70
£108.21
£90.99
£81.97
6
£210.14
£98.08
£154.66
£64.36
£108.21
£84.71
£71.41
7
£191.09
£93.05
£170.22
£60.90
£108.21
£85.77
£64.77
£191.09
8
£159.03
£86.01
£149.98
£64.30
£104.89
£84.60
£64.67
£152.87
9
£148.33
£87.85
£130.81
£60.65
£113.29
£95.61
£60.09
£166.75
This week’s Predictions: James’ Choices
Value Bets – Bank £148.33 – Stake £29.67
The Value Betting strategy targets overpricing of bookmakers’ odds to improve chances of long-term profitability. We compare the best odds available using the FBO Odds Comparison Tool with match outcome probabilities generated from a statistical model. For more information on this strategy please see the FBO Betting Strategy Guide.
Newcastle at home to Chelsea, 5/1 with Bet365
Fulham at home to Man Utd, 11/2 with Bet365
Sunderland away to Hull, 14/5 with Bet365
Norwich away to Man City, 18/1 with Sporting Bet
Stoke at home to Southampton, 23/10 with Bet365
Draw West Brow home to Crystal Palace, 33/10 with BetVictor
Arsenal at home to Liverpool, 13/10 with William Hill
Everton at home to Tottenham, 6/4 with William Hill
Draw Cardiff at home to Swansea, 12/5 with Bet365
Top 5 At Home – Bank £113.29 – Stake £22.66
The Top 5 At Home strategy backs Top 5clubs playing at home against lower-half of the table opposition (using final league placings for the 12/13 season).
The Top 5 at Home bets for this week are:
Man City at home to Norwich, 1/5 with William Hill
Home Favourites – £95.61 – Stake £19.12
This week’s Home Favourites are:
Hull, Man City, West Brom, West Ham, Arsenal & Everton.
Random Selection – Bank £60.09 – Stake £12.02
Newcastle
v
Chelsea
Home Win
Fulham
v
Man Utd
Draw
Hull
v
Sunderland
Draw
Man City
v
Norwich
Draw
Stoke
v
Southampton
Home Win
West Brom
v
Crystal Palace
Away Win
West Ham
v
Aston Villa
Away Win
Arsenal
v
Liverpool
Home Win
Everton
v
Tottenham
Away Win
Cardiff
v
Swansea
Away Win
Challengers’ Selection – Bank £166.75 – Stake £33.35
Fulham to draw with Manchester United – 16/5 with Bet365 – £8.00
A resurgent Man United can grab three crucial points today, and Fulham’s home form would suggest that a home defeat to United is likely, but I’ll go against the grain and back a draw today. Dimitar Berbatov will fancy scoring against his old club to prove they should’ve kept him, whilst Wayne Rooney will be keen to add to his goal tally.
West Ham to lose to Aston Villa - 14/5 with Bet365 – £15.00
I’ve gone for an away win for Villa today, as West Ham may struggle to deal with Benteke up front for the claret & blues. West Ham will sit deep and try to restrict Villa’s counter attacking tactics, meaning a game of small margins is likely. Villa to win by a goal.
Arsenal to draw with Liverpool – 5/2 with Bet365 – £10.35
With both Arsenal and Liverpool scoring for fun in the opening part of the season we could see a goalfest at the Emirates today, but with both teams keen to keep their impressive runs going they won’t give much away. Sturridge and Suarez are in frightening form, but Aaron Ramsey will fancy a goal if he can get it, and Mesut Ozil will pull the strings in midfield. Score draw for this one, I’m going 2-2.
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