The last place Calgary Flames.
Well, it wasn't supposed to go like this. But hitting the team and its fans Monday morning like a glass of icy cold water thrown in their face is the stark reality that Calgary is now alone in last in the Western Conference. Behind the Coyotes. Behind the Oilers. Behind everyone.
Two points through five games also equals the Flames worst start in their 35 years in Calgary. They also had two points after five games in 1997-98, a season in which they started out 0-3-2.
The result has been a divided fan base. Some are shrugging it off as a slow start -- season isn't even two weeks old yet, relax, no big deal. For others, the sky is falling and faster than a two ton anvil hurtling towards the earth.
Here, in a variation of my regular Eight From 80 Feet feature, I look at both sides. Eight reasons to sleep soundly and eight reasons to be fearful that the night terrors will continue.
Eight Reasons to be Optimistic:
1. The Season is 12 Days Old
With an NHL season 186 days in duration, we've played just 6.5 percent of the games so far. That's a drop in the bucket and there is plenty of time to recover. Last year, the Winnipeg Jets started off an identical 1-4-0 yet finished the season at 99 points to make the playoffs. In 2013-14, the New York Rangers also began 1-4-0 but finished the season with 96 points and not only made the playoffs, they went all the way to the Stanley Cup final before losing to Los Angeles.
2. Not Far Behind the Teams That Matter
Two weeks ago, the consensus in many circles was that Calgary had a very good shot at finishing top three in the Pacific Division. Most had the Ducks first with the Kings and Flames in some sort order of second and third. Well, you may have noticed that it hasn't exactly been a sizzling start for Anaheim or Los Angeles either. They were sitting at two and one points respectively until each won Sunday night. So despite the slow start, the Flames can take solace in the fact that they have barely lost any ground to two of the Pacific's biggest threats.
3. Defence Will Come Around
The Flames have to be pleased with what they're getting from the team's third D pairing of Deryk Engelland and Brett Kulak. For all six Calgary blue-liners, here's a look at their individual SAT% (aka Corsi) as of Monday morning, which is a measurement of shot attempts for/against. If you're above 50, that means your team is generating more shot attempts than they're yielding when that player is on the ice. The higher above 50, the better.
17. Deryk Engelland, 58.25
21. Brett Kulak, 57.73
129. Mark Giordano, 46.91
147. Dougie Hamilton, 43.86
149. Dennis Wideman, 43.68
175. Kris Russell, 39.44
You know Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton will get it going pretty soon. They are both proven top defenders. Last year, Hamilton (54.93) was 15th in the NHL and Giordano (48.36) led the Flames. With TJ Brodie coming back in the next couple weeks, Calgary's top four will get that much better and with the better-than-expected calibre of play already coming from the third pairing, that bodes well for Calgary getting its vaunted defense corps back to the level where everyone expected them to be at to start the season.
4. Ramo Getting Better, Ortio Yet to Lose
While in the early going, neither Jonas Hiller or Karri Ramo have been able to deliver the type of consistency coach Bob Hartley is looking for, this would be a worse problem if they were the team's only two goaltenders. That's not the case this year as Hartley still has Joni Ortio as a card up his sleeve and you sense we could see him soon.
As you may recall, it was with the team scuffling last year -- having lost three straight games on home ice (sounds familiar), the last being an ugly 6-5 loss (also sounds familiar) to Florida -- that Ortio got his chance in Vancouver to start off a five-game road trip and he promptly rattled off four consecutive wins.
Meanwhile, despite surrendering that awful go-ahead goal on Saturday (which he talked about in my piece on Ramo on the weekend), Ramo was excellent and virtually perfect for 58-and-a-half minutes prior to that. He said Saturday's game was the best he felt yet and he that he feels he's settling in and finding his game after a tough opening night start that was followed by not playing for eight days.
5. Just A Matter of Time for Top Line
Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Jiri Hudler made up the best line in the NHL for the final two months of last season. You sense it's just a matter of time before they revert to that form. Mind you, Gaudreau is already flying with five points so far compared to the bagel he was sitting at this same point one year ago.
Once the top line does get going and if the newly formed trio of Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund and Micheal Frolik can generate some chemistry, which we saw glimpses of Friday in Winnipeg (Bennett did not play Saturday due to a minor upper body injury) and if red-hot David Jones can keep contributing, the Flames will have a more balanced attack that ultimately will make them a better team than a year ago when they were so reliant on the No. 1 line.
Also of note, Jones' power play goal on Saturday night was the first time in 43 games the Flames got a goal from the second power play unit. Getting over that mental hurdle is big and it should lead to more production from that group going forward.
6. Better First Periods
Calgary has played better first periods this year and that's good news. Last year, Calgary led after one period only 18 times, which was only more than Detroit and Buffalo. This season, three times already they've headed to the first intermission in front.
The Flames showed an impressive ability last year to lock down first period leads also. Only the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks were better at it. If that trend continues, that means far less reliance on third period comebacks and a team winning more conventionally and that's the type of winning that is sustainable.
7. Playing Well on the Road
The Flames have played twice on the road so far and have looked good. They picked up a win in Vancouver and they were 88 seconds away from getting at least a point in a very difficult MTS Centre in Winnipeg on Friday before succumbing to the Jets. After tying a franchise record with 22 road wins a year ago, the early indications are that the Flames will once again thrive in opposition arenas this year using their aggressive forecheck to bottle up teams in their own end and get them off their game. Combine with better first periods and Calgary has the ability to take the crowd out of it early and that's the path to road success.
8. Schedule Has Been Difficult
While there is plenty of consternation about the Flames record, it hasn't been an easy schedule so far so that's a consideration to keep in mind. Opening night was a stinker, for sure, but heading back to Vancouver was not a gimme either. The Jets and Blues are two of the top teams in the Central Division and the Oilers were a motivated group and let's be honest, are a much better team than a year ago with Connor McDavid among the many changes.
Eight Reasons to be Worried
1. Slow Starts Can be Crippling
While the Jets were a slow starter from a year ago, the other three teams that had two or fewer points at this point in the season were Carolina, Buffalo and Edmonton, all three of whom never climbed out of that early hole and finished in the bottom five overall.
Meanwhile, I mentioned that 1997-98 Flames team that also had two points after five game. That very much foreshadowed how that season was going to go. That ended up being the Flames worst season in Calgary. Under Brian Sutter, they finished with a 26-41-15 record for just 67 points. It earned them No. 6 draft pick that summer, which they used on Rico Fata and what followed was some very, very lean years.
2. Chasing the Teams That Really Matter
The pessimist should be very concerned after a glance of the standings today. Heck, you know Anaheim and Los Angeles are going to get on a roll very soon so the Flames have essentially blown a golden chance to create some separation on them. Meanwhile, Pacific rivals Vancouver and San Jose are already six points up on Calgary. As two teams expected to battle Calgary for a top three spot, the Flames already find themselves in a significant hole when it comes to chasing the Sharks and Canucks.
3. Concerns About Hamilton
The whispers have already begun. Perhaps Hamilton was a bigger benefactor of playing alongside Zdeno Chara last year in Boston than everybody thought. Hamilton and Giordano has struggled to the point where it shouldn't surprise anyone if Brodie is put back with Giordano shortly after his return. Of course, that leaves the question of what next for Hamilton.
If the 6-foot-5 defender is struggling with Giordano, it's hard to see him faring better in a pairing with Kris Russell or Dennis Wideman. Meanwhile, Ladislav Smid's pending return could leave the Flames with eight defencemen meaning someone heads back to the minors, which would probably be Kulak, despite the fact he's been a bright spot.
The other concern with Giordano is he's at zero points. That's not how you measure his value but he was the engine of the Flames offence last season and they do need him to contribute. He's coming back from a major injury but we've yet to see that dynamic game from Giordano we got accustomed to last season when he was up in the rush constantly and always a scoring threat.
4. More Questions Than Answers in Net
Of 42 goalies that have made at least two starts, here is where the Flames goaltenders rank:
Overall Save Percentage:
29. Karri Ramo, .904
37. Jonas Hiller, .872
Even-Strength Save Percentage:
36. Jonas Hiller, .889
37. Karri Ramo, .885
It's the type of goaltending that isn't going to get this team into the playoffs and you wonder how it might be affecting the team's overall play. For years in this city, we saw how the Flames would play very poor whenever Miikka Kiprusoff's back-up got a start. Almost as if they were expecting to lose. The mental drain on the pysche of players that almost come to expect a bad against should not be understated.
Meanwhile, given the reluctance to play Ortio so far, what does that say about the team's confidence in the 24-year-old Finn, who would be in the minors if not for the situation with his contract.
What if Ortio does get the tap to play Tuesday night against Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals? Hard to expect anything spectacular given it will be his first time dressing for a game since he faced Winnipeg in a pre-season game on October 1. After sitting dormant for 18 days, what could one realistically expect from Ortio. Further, what if he struggles, then where is this team at?
Three good goalies is a good problem to have, three below average goalies is not.
5. Overreliance on the Top Line
Getting held off the scoresheet two games in a row does not happen very often for the trio of Gaudreau, Monahan and Hudler. It happened once last year in the playoffs (games 1 and 2 against Anaheim) and just once over the final three months of the regular season (March 14 and 17).
But that's where the Flames find themselves right now with all three blanked Friday in Winnipeg and again on Saturday against the Oilers. Most troubling is if that line is not scoring, the team's not winning. You have to go back to November 15, 2014, a 4-2 win over Ottawa in game No. 19 of last season to find the last time Calgary won a game in which they got no points from Monahan, Gaudreau or Hudler.
6. Miserable Second Periods
While it's been good news that the Flames have taken three first period leads this season, they've blown the bad news is they've blown all three with not one of them lasting into the third period. Now one of these blown leads happened in the game in Vancouver, which Calgary came back to win in overtime, but their record when leading after one period of 1-2-0 is a bad trend.
The undoing has been some dreadful second periods. In the middle 20 minutes, the Flames have been outscored 8-2 and outshot 54-27. They're simply not giving themselves a chance playing that poorly in the middle frame.
7. Dreadful on Home Ice
Calgary has lost its first three games at the Scotiabank Saddledome for the first time since 2000-01. They've been outscored 14-6 and been outshot all three games (by a total of 100-72). Not winning on home ice should be a concern as you cannot count on the team thriving on the road once again, just like last season. The Flames are a team that is no longer sneaking up on opponents. Teams are geared up to play Calgary and are determined to outwork them and do what they did to teams last year. Edmonton's Taylor Hall said this after Saturday night's game.
If they cannot play at the same level at home as they did last year, the tiniest of slips on the road will result in this team watching the playoffs on TV.
8. Schedule Getting Increasingly Difficult
The Flames schedule hasn't been easy so far and it's not getting any easier anytime soon. Following this stretch of four of five games coming against playoff teams from a year ago, Calgary's next six games are also against teams that are coming off trips to the post-season.
The tough Capitals play at the Saddledome on Tuesday and then starting on Friday, the Flames begin a hectic stretch of six games in nine nights. There aren't any pushovers in that mix either -- The Red Wings, back-to-back against the Rangers and Islanders, Ottawa and Montreal after that and the improved Oilers at Rexall Place on Halloween. If they manage only a couple victories in that stretch, Calgary would enter November 3-9-0 and that's leaving an awful lot of ground to make up.
Looking Ahead
In these final two weeks of October, we're going to learn a lot about the Flames.
Will they be able to remedy their goalie situation? Once the schedule gets busier, you want to have extra skaters on the roster so when players are banged up, they can miss a game here or there without having to be parked on injured reserve for a week to free up a roster spot to call-up somebody from Stockton. Having a third goalie tying up one of your roster spots makes navigating through busy stretches of the schedule far more difficult.
What about the health of the team? Is Bennett's injury minor? How close is Joe Colborne, who was a participant at practice on Monday? How quickly can Brodie make it back and a bigger question, how quickly can he get back to the high level he was at a year ago and that this team needs? He won't be the saviour but in his absence, his value to the team has certainly become noticeable the last couple weeks.
The Flames were a fascinating story last season for their ability to defy the odds. They've become a fascinating story once again this year for their inability so far to meet heightened expectations.
Making the second round of the playoffs early in a rebuild as was the case last season does comes with its traps and we're in the midst of one of them. Higher expectations have been set -- arguably unrealistically high given the youth on the team and where this team was at just two summers ago -- but that's how it goes.
The one thing we do know for sure is with 93.5 percent of the season remaining, there are many more chapters still to be written and with all books, it's how it ends that most people will remember, now how it began.
By the way, have you liked Flames From 80 Feet on Facebook yet? Go there and do so now. It's just another way to be alerted to new Calgary Flames articles that I've written.
-----------------------------------------------
Recent Flames Reading
Left in One Batter Too Long: Karri Ramo's Night and NHL Career in a Nutshell: For eight-and-two-thirds innings on Friday night, Karri Ramo essentially pitched a shutout. But all that goodwill was lost when he surrendered an awful go-ahead goal with 88 seconds left. It seems the only thing that's consistent with Karri Ramo is his inconsistency. (Oct. 17, 2015)
Eight From 80 Feet: Monday Ramblings on a Thanksgiving Long Weekend: Boyz N The Hud, Raymond's resurgence, the 411 on Stockton, Mason McDonald's fight to make Canada's World Junior Team. All this and more in my latest eight Flames thoughts. (Oct. 12, 2015)
Three Goalie Remedy? Buffalo's Loss of Lehner is the Perfect Storm for Calgary: I examine six reasons why Robin Lehner being lost to the Sabres for 6-10 weeks should be the perfect opportunity that Flames GM Brad Treliving has been waiting for. (Oct. 9, 2015)
Eight From 80 Feet: Eight Keys to the Flames Returning to the Playoffs: There are plenty of things that need to go right for that to happen and I've taken some time to identify a few areas where they either need to remain good at, or get better at. (Oct. 7, 2015)
Eight From 80 Feet: Eight Bold Predictions for Calgary for the 2015-16 Season - There are predictions and then there are 'bold' predictions. This is the latter. They could all happen, or none could happen, but yes, I'm saying there's a chance. (Oct. 6, 2015)