2015-07-30

BARCHART MORNING CALL

Thursday, July 30th, 2015View Older Reports

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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.06%) this morning are little changed while the EuroStoxx 50 index is up +0.47%. European stocks are higher on the rise in Eurozone economic confidence to a new 4-year high and positive earnings news. European stocks are broadly higher today with 16 of the 19 EuroStoxx 600 sectors showing gains, led by technology and oil and gas. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index today fell by -2.20%, giving back some of Wednesday's +3.44% upward rebound. Facebook is down -2.3% this morning after its Q2 earnings report late yesterday.
The markets this morning are mainly looking ahead to today's U.S. Q2 GDP report, which is expected to improve to +2.5% after the dismal -0.2% performance in Q1.
Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong -0.49%, China -2.20%, Taiwan +1.03%, Australia +0.81%, Singapore -1.05%, South Korea -0.96%, India +0.51%, Turkey +0.18%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.36%) this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) while EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.20%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is +0.40% (+0.32%). The dollar index is seeing some continued strength today on expectations for a decent U.S. GDP report and yesterday's slightly more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement. Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.18%) are down -8 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand and caution ahead of this today's U.S. GDP report.
Commodity prices are up +0.30% this morning. Sep crude oil (CLU15 +0.51%) this morning is up +0.45 (+0.92%) and Sep gasoline (RBU15 +1.59%) is up +0.0357 (+2.03%) on carry-over support from yesterday's EIA report that featured a -4.2 million bbl drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and a -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production.
Metals prices are lower this morning with Aug gold (GCQ15 -0.71%) down -6.6 (-0.60%), Sep silver (SIU15 -0.87%) down -0.108 (-0.73%), and Sep copper (HGU15 -1.64%) down -0.018 (-0.73%). Grains and softs are mostly higher.
The European Commission's July index of executive and consumer sentiment rose by +0.5 points to a new 4-year high from 103.5 in June, stronger than market expectations for a -0.3 point decline to 103.2. The July industrial confidence index rose to -2.9 from -3.4 in June. July service sector confidence rose to 8.9 from 7.9. European confidence in July received a boost from Greece's preliminary agreement to reform conditions that should lead to a 3-year bailout agreement and avoid the chance of Greece leaving the Eurozone.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +15,000 to 270,000 after last week's -26,000 to 255,000) and continuing claims (expected -2,000 to 2.205 million after last week's -9,000 to 2.207 million), (2) Q2 GDP (expected +2.5% q/q annualized after Q1's -0.2%), and (3) the Treasury's auction of $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
There are 54 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Procter & Gamble (consensus $0.95), ADP (9.59), Coca-Cola Enterprises (0.76), Valero (2.42), CME Group (0.92), Time Warner Cable (1.80), Marathon Petroleum (1.75), Amgen (2.43), Electronic Arts (0.03), Fluor (1.06), Expedia (0.86).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: TerraForm Global (GLBL), NEP Group (NEPG), Aqua Metals (AQMS), EyeGate Pharmaceuticals (EYEG), Riverbanc Multifamily Investor (RMI).
Equity conferences this week: none.

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning are little changed with support from a +0.47% rally in European stocks but downward pressure from today's -2.20% sell-off in the China Shanghai index. Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +0.73%%, Dow Jones +0.69%, Nasdaq +0.44%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday extended Tuesday’s upward rebound on the +3.4% rally in the Chinese Shanghai stock index and relief that the FOMC in its post-meeting statement left its interest rate guidance virtually unchanged and did not adopt language to indicate that a rate hike is likely at the next meeting in September. Stock prices were undercut, however, by the weak June U.S. pending home sales report of -1.8% m/m versus expectations of +0.9%.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Positive SPX earnings reports this morning include: ConocoPhillips (COP +1.26%) ($0.07 vs consensus of $0.04), Air Products (APD +0.99%) (1.65 vs 1.58), Cigna (CI -0.32%) (2.55 vs 2.25), Helmerich & Payne (HP +3.51%) (0.27 vs 0.12), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK +1.88%) (1.49 vs 1.44), Allegion (ALLE +2.18%) (0.71 vs 0.706), Alexion Pharma (ALXN -2.35%) (1.44 vs 1.39), Starwood Hotels (HOT +2.42%) (0.84 vs 0.74), Pitney Bowes (PBI +0.87%) (0.45 vs 0.44), Procter & Gamble (PG +0.49%) (1.00 vs 0.95), Cardinal Health (CAH +0.80%) (1.00 vs 0.99), DENTSPLY (XRAY +2.21%) (0.73 vs 0.68), Sealed Air (AEE +0.79%) (0.60 vs 0.53), CME Group (CME +0.88%) (0.97 vs 0.92), Delphi Automotive (DLPH +1.36%) (1.34 vs 1.339), Valero (VLO +1.49%) (2.66 vs 2.42), Coca-Cola (CCE +1.90%) (0.79 vs 0.76), SCANA (SCG +1.03%) (0.69 vs 0.67), Invesco (IVZ +1.18%) (0.62 vs 0.618).

Negative SPX earnings reports this morning include: TECO Energy (TE +0.51%) (0.26 vs 0.267), Ball Corp (BLL +1.61%) (0.89 vs 0.94), Time Warner (TWC +0.12%) (1.54 vs 1.80), Xcel Energy (XEL +0.42%) (0.39 vs 0.396), L-3 Communications (LLL +2.02%) (1.41 vs 1.71), Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.79%) (0.70 vs 0.704), Occidental Petroleum (OXY +1.78%) (0.21 vs 0.225), Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL -0.04%) (1.01 vs 1.103), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +2.38%) (1.51 vs 1.75), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH +0.47%) (1.12 vs 1.57).

On positive earnings news late yesterday, Skechers (SKX +3.12%) rallied 10%, Teradyne (TER +0.27%) rallied 6%, and Lam Research (LRCX -0.10%) rallied +1.5%.

On negative earnings news late yesterday, Facebook (FB +1.78%) fell -3%, Whole Foods (WFM -0.29%) fell 11%, Lifelock (LOCK +11.15%) fell 7%, La Quinta (LQ +2.45%) fell 3%, and Whiting Petroleum (WLL +7.02%) fell 5%.

MARKET COMMENTS
Sep 10-year T-note prices are down -8 ticks on reduced safe-haven demand and caution ahead of this today's U.S. GDP report. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -6, FVU5 -2.75. Sep 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed mildly lower on reduced safe-haven demand as Chinese and U.S. stocks rallied and on supply overhang as the Treasury sells $105 billion of T-notes this week. T-notes found support, however, on the weak pending home sales report and relief the FOMC did not move to a more hawkish post-meeting statement.
The dollar index this morning is up +0.341 (+0.35%) while EUR/USD is down -0.0022 (-0.20%) and USD/JPY is +0.40% (+0.32%). The dollar index is seeing some continued strength today on expectations for a decent U.S. GDP report and yesterday's slightly more hawkish FOMC post-meeting statement. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.20 (+0.21%), EUR/USD -0.0076 (-0.69%), USD/JPY +0.38 (+0.31%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed mildly higher on technical buying and the rally in Chinese and U.S. stocks. However, the dollar was undercut by the weak U.S. pending home sales report and the dovish FOMC post-meeting statement, which suggested that the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
Sep crude oil this morning is up +0.45 (+0.92%) and Sep gasoline is up +0.0357 (+2.03%) on carry-over support from yesterday's EIA report that featured a -4.2 million bbl drop in U.S. crude oil inventories and a -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production. Wednesday's closes: CLU5 +0.81 (+1.69%), RBU5 +0.0066 (+0.38%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Wednesday closed higher on the rally in Chinese stocks and EIA's report of a -4.2 million bbl decline in U.S. crude oil inventories versus expectations for a +850,000 bbl build. Crude oil prices were also boosted by the EIA report's -1.5% drop in U.S. oil production in the week ended July 24 to 9.413 million bpd, which is down by -2.0% the 43-year high of 9.610 million bpd posted in the first week of June.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR07/30/2015

US

0830 ET

Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +15,000 to 270,000, previous -26,000 to 255,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -2,000 to 2.205 million, previous -9,000 to 2.207 million.

0830 ET

Q2 GDP expected +2.5% (q/q annualized), Q1 -0.2%. Q2 personal consumption expected +2.7%, Q1 +2.1%. Q2 GDP price index expected +1.5%, Q1 unch. Q2 core PCE deflator expected +1.6% q/q, Q1 +0.8% q/q.

0830 ET

USDA weekly Export Sales.

1300 ET

Treasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.

JPN

0030 ET

Japan Jun vehicle production, May -16.6% y/y.

1930 ET

Japan Jun jobless rate expected unch at 3.3%. Jun job-to-applicant ratio expected +0.01 to 1.20, May 1.19.

1930 ET

Japan Jun overall household spending expected +1.9% y/y, May +4.8% y/y.

1930 ET

Japan Jun national CPI expected +0.3% y/y, May +0.5% y/y. Jun national CPI ex-fresh food expected unch y/y, May +0.1% y/y. Jun national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.4% y/y, May +0.4% y/y.

1930 ET

Japan Jul Tokyo CPI expected +0.2% y/y, Jun +0.3% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected unch y/y, Jun +0.1% y/y. Jul Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% y/y, Jun +0.2% y/y.

GER

0355 ET

German Jul unemployment change expected -5,000, Jun -1,000. Jul unemployment rate expected unch at 6.4%.

0800 ET

German Jul CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Jun -0.2% m/m and +0.1% y/y.

EUR

0500 ET

Eurozone Jul economic confidence expected -0.3 to 103.2, Jun 103.5. Jul business climate indicator expected +0.06 to 0.20, Jun 0.14.

0500 ET

Revised Eurozone Jul consumer confidence, previous-1.5 to -7.1.

UK

1905 ET

UK Jul GfK consumer confidence expected -2 to 5, Jun 7.

U.S. STOCK CALENDAR07/30/2015

Company

Ticker

Time

Event Description

Period

Estimate

Air Products & Chemicals Inc

APD US

Bef-mkt

Q3 2015 Earnings Release

Q3 2015

1.581

Automatic Data Processing Inc

ADP US

Bef-mkt

Q4 2015 Earnings Release

Q4 2015

0.593

Ball Corp

BLL US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.94

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc

CCE US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.756

Colgate-Palmolive Co

CL US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.704

Helmerich & Payne Inc

HP US

Bef-mkt

Q3 2015 Earnings Release

Q3 2015

0.121

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc

HOT US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.74

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc

HST US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.456

Occidental Petroleum Corp

OXY US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.225

ConocoPhillips

COP US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.037

Pinnacle West Capital Corp

PNW US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.225

Pitney Bowes Inc

PBI US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.442

Procter & Gamble Co/The

PG US

Bef-mkt

Q4 2015 Earnings Release

Q4 2015

0.946

SCANA Corp

SCG US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.67

Stanley Black & Decker Inc

SWK US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.443

TECO Energy Inc

TE US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.267

Cardinal Health Inc

CAH US

Bef-mkt

Q4 2015 Earnings Release

Q4 2015

0.986

Ensco PLC

ESV US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.026

BorgWarner Inc

BWA US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.829

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc

ALXN US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.392

Iron Mountain Inc

IRM US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.538

Valero Energy Corp

VLO US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

2.42

L-3 Communications Holdings Inc

LLL US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.711

CME Group Inc/IL

CME US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.924

Time Warner Cable Inc

TWC US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.796

Xcel Energy Inc

XEL US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.396

Marathon Petroleum Corp

MPC US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.746

Delphi Automotive PLC

DLPH US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.339

Allegion PLC

ALLE US

Bef-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.703

WestRock Co

WRK US

Bef-mkt

Q3 2015 Earnings Release

Q3 2015

1.017

Cigna Corp

CI US

6:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

2.308

DENTSPLY International Inc

XRAY US

7:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.683

Sealed Air Corp

SEE US

7:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.53

Xylem Inc/NY

XYL US

7:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.433

Invesco Ltd

IVZ US

7:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.618

Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc

ZBH US

7:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.566

Owens-Illinois Inc

OI US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Pitney Bowes Inc

PBI US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Stanley Black & Decker Inc

SWK US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

MetLife Inc

MET US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Mondelez International Inc

MDLZ US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.394

Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc

ZBH US

8:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd

KORS US

8:00

Annual General Meeting

Y 2015

Automatic Data Processing Inc

ADP US

8:30

Q4 2015 Earnings Call

Q4 2015

Cigna Corp

CI US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Procter & Gamble Co/The

PG US

8:30

Q4 2015 Earnings Call

Q4 2015

Cardinal Health Inc

CAH US

8:30

Q4 2015 Earnings Call

Q4 2015

DENTSPLY International Inc

XRAY US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Iron Mountain Inc

IRM US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

CME Group Inc/IL

CME US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Time Warner Cable Inc

TWC US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Delphi Automotive PLC

DLPH US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Allegion PLC

ALLE US

8:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Baxalta Inc

BXLT US

8:30

Business Update Call

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc

HST US

9:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

TECO Energy Inc

TE US

9:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Unum Group

UNM US

9:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Invesco Ltd

IVZ US

9:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Xylem Inc/NY

XYL US

9:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

WestRock Co

WRK US

9:00

Q3 2015 Earnings Call

Q3 2015

Williams Cos Inc/The

WMB US

9:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

BorgWarner Inc

BWA US

9:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Air Products & Chemicals Inc

APD US

10:00

Q3 2015 Earnings Call

Q3 2015

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc

CCE US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Lincoln National Corp

LNC US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Occidental Petroleum Corp

OXY US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc

ALXN US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Boston Properties Inc

BXP US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Marriott International Inc/MD

MAR US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Sealed Air Corp

SEE US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Mondelez International Inc

MDLZ US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Xcel Energy Inc

XEL US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Marathon Petroleum Corp

MPC US

10:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Ball Corp

BLL US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Colgate-Palmolive Co

CL US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Helmerich & Payne Inc

HP US

11:00

Q3 2015 Earnings Call

Q3 2015

Ensco PLC

ESV US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

O'Reilly Automotive Inc

ORLY US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Valero Energy Corp

VLO US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

L-3 Communications Holdings Inc

LLL US

11:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

ConocoPhillips

COP US

12:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Pinnacle West Capital Corp

PNW US

12:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc

HOT US

13:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Murphy Oil Corp

MUR US

13:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Public Storage

PSA US

14:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Realty Income Corp

O US

14:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

SCANA Corp

SCG US

15:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Western Union Co/The

WU US

16:01

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.393

Broadcom Corp

BRCM US

16:05

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.752

KLA-Tencor Corp

KLAC US

16:15

Q4 2015 Earnings Release

Q4 2015

0.915

Edison International

EIX US

16:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Western Union Co/The

WU US

16:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Expedia Inc

EXPE US

16:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Hanesbrands Inc

HBI US

16:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

PerkinElmer Inc

PKI US

17:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Amgen Inc

AMGN US

17:00

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

KLA-Tencor Corp

KLAC US

17:00

Q4 2015 Earnings Call

Q4 2015

Electronic Arts Inc

EA US

17:00

Q1 2016 Earnings Call

Q1 2016

PerkinElmer Inc

PKI US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.59

Leggett & Platt Inc

LEG US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.538

Eversource Energy

ES US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.562

Edison International

EIX US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.826

Universal Health Services Inc

UHS US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.646

Amgen Inc

AMGN US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

2.427

Flowserve Corp

FLS US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.794

Electronic Arts Inc

EA US

Aft-mkt

Q1 2016 Earnings Release

Q1 2016

0.027

Essex Property Trust Inc

ESS US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

2.34

Apartment Investment & Management Co

AIV US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.537

FirstEnergy Corp

FE US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.47

Fluor Corp

FLR US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

1.055

Expedia Inc

EXPE US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.863

Hanesbrands Inc

HBI US

Aft-mkt

Q2 2015 Earnings Release

Q2 2015

0.499

Fluor Corp

FLR US

17:30

Q2 2015 Earnings Call

Q2 2015

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd

KORS US

Annual General Meeting

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