THIS week I would like to focus on developments in South Africa; our neighbour and biggest trading partner in the region. It’s a country that has also had to house a lot of those fleeing from political and economic challenges in Zimbabwe.
Within the last two months we have experienced very disturbing trends and evolutions in South Africa, which all have implications for where the nation seems headed to and how it will get to that.
Just last week, we saw the heckling in the South African parliament and the eventual brutal eviction of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) legislators, during President Jacob Zuma’s state of the nation address (SONA).
Prior to that and to-date, we are seeing very disturbing scenes of xenophobic attacks on foreign shop owners in some of the townships such as Soweto and in Pretoria North.
The xenophobic attacks are also laced with looting of shops and public violence.
South Africa also experienced violent service delivery protests, prompted by the now constant power outages across the country and water shortages in some settlement areas.
There were also shooting incidents among gold artisanal miners — commonly referred to as “zama zamas”, as they contested for disused mining claims.
The perennial industrial action period is now due and more work stoppages are expected across the country’s productive sectors.
Within the past two months, the critical issue of land equity also came up, forcing Zuma to make halfhearted commitments to consider some form of land redistribution in the country.
Out of all this quagmire, the question is where exactly is South Africa headed for and who or what is to blame for the emerging crises, which threaten to set the country ablaze?
One cannot undermine the rumblings and the bubbling challenges as they have potential to influence nation-wide instability.
The question of who and what is to blame is difficult to address but is also incisive to the resolution of the country’s challenges.
The African National Congress (ANC), being the governing political party, seems to be misreading the situation and therefore placing blame in the wrong quarters.
The challenge for the ANC is that; if the party is not able to squarely identify who and what is to blame, then their prescription to the challenges will likely inflame the instability.
One lesson from the Zimbabwe political and economic situation is that; if the leadership is not able to take responsibility for the state of matters, blame will always be allotted elsewhere and resolution becomes elusive.
One senses that the ANC solely blames the apartheid era for current challenges in the country.
However, many in its rank and file, including former finance minister and national planning commissioner — Trevor Manuel —seem to have made efforts to discourage such conception as the only source of the problem. Other party stalwarts, like secretary general — Gwede Mantashe — however prefer to dig-in, out rightly blaming it all on the historical legacy of apartheid in the country.
Others within the ANC place the blame with opposition political parties — the EFF and Democratic Alliance (DA), whom they accuse of fanning disruptive and riotous behaviour among the citizenry.
Looking at the latest xenophobic attacks, there is a sense that some ordinary South Africans blame other African foreigners for having come into their country to either push them away from economic opportunities or for increasing competition for resources.
This is somehow ironic because xenophobic eruption in South Africa is nearly always mainly against other black/African foreigners and rarely targeted at those from outside of Africa.
Not that it should be, but it’s the mindset that merely focuses at the sub-national and community based opportunity squeeze without the overall focus on the broader national economic structure.
This structure is still very much controlled by the capital-laden, many from outside of Africa, yet form a minority of the populace.
South African social and economic policy has attempted to shift in the last few years to address the marginalisation of blacks, which was prompted by the apartheid regimes, but also sustained by post-apartheid ANC governments.
Government policy has, however, not been holistic, preferring to address proximate issues as equality in employment without addressing the structural ownership and control of the economy.
Although the popular Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) has had some successes, it has failed to overhaul the economic structure and exclusion of the majority of the black population.
BEE, has however, been further manipulated to entrench the minority’s grip on the economy by mainly empowering black individuals rather than the black population.
The legacies of post-apartheid South African presidents have also not made it easy to address the emerging challenges.
On the background of the crumbling of apartheid, the country’s first post-apartheid president, Nelson Mandela, settled for a stabilization strategy. This was characterised by avoiding radical post-apartheid shifts but rather preferring to maintain an orderly transition premised on prioritisation of stability.
After him, came Thabo Mbeki, who was considered to be a foreign policy president.
His main focus was to place South Africa as a leader on the African continent and on matters of advancing pan-Africanism.
That focus, however, failed to balance out with domestic policy strengthening, probably leading to his ouster as president in 2008.
Zuma’s legacy is yet to be written, given he still has four years to go. Zuma, however, started off attempting to drive at a radical pro-majority and pro-poor policy framework.
This was to contrast Mbeki’s era and to justify Mbeki’s dislodging.
However, within his first term (2009 to 2014), Zuma faced the compelling power of the capital side of the economy, and tended to try and strike a balance between capital interests and pro-poor/pro-majority policy deliverables.
That balancing act led to mistrust between him and the capital holders as well as between him and the pro-poor/pro-majority proponents. He struck middle ground which, however, won him few or no friends on the contesting sides of capital bearers and pro-poor/pro-majority exponents.
The emergence of Cyril Ramaphosa from the “world of capital” back into the fold of popular politics is seen by many as influenced by capital holders who are sending one of their own to ensure recovery and fortification of their threatened interests in the political economy of South Africa.
Perceptions are rife that Ramaphosa was considered a good candidate for such assignment as his trade union background was deemed as appealing to both the ANC and the pro-majority and pro-poor proponents.
However, on the other hand, his identity is more inclined and tainted by his post-apartheid capitalist flirtations than his apartheid era labour movement exploits.
With Ramaphosa likely to take over the country’s presidency in 2019, there is a sense that if he goes ahead with the capitalist agenda, or at least overly embraces it, then the ANC is yet to face its ugliest clashes with the majority black demands in the country.
Some minority capital holders are not making it easier, already calling on Zuma to relinquish his post for Cyril, prematurely, to ensure that their interests be propped up even before his anticipated 2019 take-over.
It is not clear if Cyril will play along to the pro-capital script or he will face a Damascene moment and instead take sides with, or appease, the pro-poor/pro-majority cluster, which is clamouring for nothing short of radical shifts.
The current challenges in the South African economy are disturbing and need resolution.
They need a political solution that prompts economic and social transformation. South Africa cannot continue postponing the expectations of its majority population.
Lessons from Zimbabwe are critical here.
Delays in addressing simmering challenges will lead to pressure in addressing them. Such pressure leads to desperate measures and entrenchment of interests with debilitating effects on national stability, prosperity and advancement.
South Africa is on a knife-edge, any further slip ups will lead to a thudding fall or the uncomfortable piercing from the sharp edges of that knife.
newsdesk@fingaz.co.zw