OHL Mayakoba Classic 11/12/15 – 11/15/15
RECAP
What a week. First of all, congrats to Russell Knox on a great victory. There are a lot of us in the DFS community who I’m sure would’ve liked him to do that on a few select weeks last year. But, fortunately for me, Knox just so happened to be the sixth man flier in a lineup that performed reasonably well on another DFS site. I’m pretty pumped!
Results-wise, it was a very hit or very miss week for the picks. Dustin Johnson was, as predicted, an absolute scoring machine with a great T5 finish and Justin Thomas surged on Sunday for a reasonably strong finish. The other chalky plays, however, had some uncharacteristically bad results, particularly Adam Scott with a horribly busto 70th, Matsuyama with the back problem WD, and Kevin Na with a 57th. If that’s not proof that you need to be very conservative with your bankroll in the fall, I don’t know what is.
The value section was undoubtedly the star of the show, however, with Fitzpatrick carding reasonably-priced T7, Casey T23, Wiesberger T17, Poulter T30, and of course, the runner-up finish from Kisner. Oosty was a bit on the scrubby side with a T44, but I guess that’s just his game.
Finally, the scrub section could’ve definitely pushed you over the finish line if you played it right. I will fully admit my eye-rolling punt on Shane Lowry’s hideous T68 – he just didn’t have it, and neither did Danny Lee. However, I feel pretty great about Olesen’s T17 and An’s high-scoring T19, the latter of whom definitely helped push my winning LU over the finish line with his low ownership and eagle-making ability. Overall, it’s still fall golf, and you should be conservative with your spend no matter what, particularly in high-scoring shootouts.
Onward!
OVERVIEW
• The Course
o El Camaleon GC
o Par 71
o 6,987 Yards
o Three Par 5s, Four Par 3s
• Location – Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
• Forecast – Could be a very wet event. See below.
• Scoring Expectation – Even with the impact of the weather, we’re almost certainly still looking at reasonably high scores as the winner over the last two years has shot -17 and -21.
• Cut Expectation – Probably under par if scoring is high. It was -3 last year!
• Past Champions in Field
o Charley Hoffman (2014)
o Harris English (2013)
o John Huh (2011)
o Johnson Wagner (2010)
o Cameron Beckman (2009)
o Mark Wilson (2008)
o Fred Funk (2006)
KEY STAT ANALYSIS
• IMPORTANT – Birdie or Better %
o Sigh, this is getting old, but if it’s going to be a high-scoring slugfest, we need lots of these.
• IMPORTANT – Strokes Gained: Putting
o Can’t score if you can’t putt.
• IMPORTANT – Strokes Gained: Tee-Green
o The best predictive metric of success on almost any track.
• IMPORTANT – GIR% and Proximity
o We have a very short course with a limited number of Par 5s – we want guys that will stick it close and kick in those birdies.
• LIKELY IMPORTANT – Driving Distance
o While this probably won’t be the sole determinant of the winner, you always want guys that can carry the ball a ways when there’s rain involved, so keep an eye on this.
FANTASYACES GENERAL DRAFT STRATEGY
FantasyAces PGA scoring will force us to shift our strategy from other PGA DFS sites quite dramatically. The system is as follows:
• DblEag = 8.00
• Eag = 5.00
• Brd = 3.00
• Par = 1.00
• Bog = -0.50
• DblBog = -2.00
• DblBogPlus = -4.00
• Win = 10.00
Notice a few things a bit different than what you’ve seen elsewhere? Here are the variables changed and implications.
Variable: Only the winner gets position points. This scoring system makes zero distinction between the guy who is 2nd and 72nd. While other sites like DK award a whopping thirty points for the win, FantasyAces only awards ten, and nothing else to anyone else.
Variable: Hole-by-hole scoring is somewhat different. A double will erase two pars or 2/3 of a birdie, a triple will erase a birdie and a par. Eagles aren’t quite as strong, and pars are a little stronger.
Implication: Far more aggressive drafting strategy. By aggressive, I mean you want the guys who are putting up crazy amounts high-variance scoring with birdies and bogeys. Your steady-eddie par-machine may get an additional half point per par, but that birdie-minus-bogey 2.5 net points is worth a whole lot more without position bonus.
Implication: MC is (potentially) not quite as punitive. If no position points are awarded except for the winner, then everything is decided by hole-by-hole performance. On a high-scoring track, an MC can still crush you with all of the birdies, but you should still be able to have a reasonably good week without getting all six through if your MCs make a bunch of birdies and bogeys.
Overall: Be Risk Tolerant. This scoring system will reward players for aggression with drafting strategy in both cash and GPP formats. We can’t be as comfortable picking our lock made cut and T60 here as usual, so we need to be somewhat more risk tolerant than usual. Yes, getting six through will still be valuable and much preferred, but particularly in cash games, you’re going to have to roll the dice a bit.
OHL MAYAKOBA 2015 DRAFT STRATEGY
Well, if last week was the cream of the crop, this would definitely be closer to the chaff. However, PGA DFS marches on, and we shall find a way to profit even in a rather dirty, smelly, dumpster fire of a field. Without question, you do not need to be betting the farm this week. Out of the 132 player field, I can point to maybe 10-15 that have almost a zero chance of winning this. Otherwise, it’s totally open, and your guess is most definitely every bit as good as mine as to who takes it down.
That said, we do have some scoring opportunities, and that’s where I want to go with my soapbox lecture this week.
When you are looking at a really poor field with a very likely under-par cut, you need to be very biased not only to GPPs, but to high-value scorers, not just cut-makers. Particularly with no position points awarded, your edge is not just a function of finding six through (that is a very, very challenging task on weeks like this) but also sheer scoring volume. Guys like Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, (usually) Danny Lee, and others are very likely to throw up a lot of birdies and outperform players who finish at equivalent positions.
From my observation and study, the vast majority of PGA drafters are excessively risk averse, opting for balanced, conservative strategies with players who generally make cuts, but don’t do much else. This might work about 50% of the time, but probably not enough to beat rake, and definitely not enough to ship a GPP. Find your birdie machines, buy them early and often, and don’t sweat it if they punt – you’re still making the +EV decision over the rest of the field.
Now for the picks!
THE PICKS
THE (SOMEWHAT) OBVIOUS
Matt Kuchar (FantasyAces $7,200)
This is about as obvious as it gets in a field like this, but it would be just flat out irresponsible of me not to throw Kuch on here given how much lower-tier value you can stuff into your LUs. He’s solid, steady, and tends to play great on short courses. A no-brainer in most LUs.
o Course History: Hasn’t played since 2007, but finished T3 then.
o Form: First event of the season, but finished last season with a pretty phenomenal eleven made cuts in a row, including a T9 at the DBC and T10 at the TOUR.
o Stats: 33rd in SG:P, 22nd in SG:T-G, 33rd in Birdie Average
o Other: Should be very, very popular this week, but with good reason.
Jason Bohn (FantasyAces $6,900)
It’s really odd to be this interested in Jason Bohn given how meh I was on him last year, but his results don’t lie, and he seems to be having a pseudo-Jimmy Walker mid-life surge. Couple that with solid course history here, a short course, and a weak field, and you’ve got the recipe for a stout Bohning.
o Course History: T7 last year, T3 in 2013, and T19 in 2011.
o Form: Didn’t play exceptionally well last week at the Sanderson (T39), but carded a T2 at the Shiners and T3 at the Frys.
o Stats: 40th in Driving Accuracy, 18th in GIR%, 14th in SG:T-G, 14th in Birdie Average, 4th in Scoring Average
o Other: Could easily be the most popular play in the field, and you should be among the buyers.
Brendan Steele (FantasyAces $6,800)
I shall continue to come back to this well over and over, particularly when there may be rain involved and length can be an advantage. Aside from his MC at the Shriners, Steele has looked phenomenal, and I’m perfectly content with him at this price in all formats.
o Course History: Meh, T37 last year, T16 in 2013
o Form: Aside from that MC, he drilled a beautiful, birdie-filled T3 at the CIMB after his Sunday collapse at the Frys where he was in great position to win.
o Stats: 20th in Driving Distance, 26th in SG:T-G, 18th in Birdie Average, 4th in Total Driving, 15th in Scoring Average
o Other: I’d project high but not ridiculously high ownership, and he’s playing well enough to buy at least on par with the field.
Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
Harris English (FantasyAces $6,800) – He’s not normally known as a huge birdie machine, but I love him in a weak field event – particularly one he’s already shipped in the past. He drives the ball reasonably long and tends to be exceptionally good about at least making the cut, so this is a very limited downside play for a very talented guy who has been on the uptrend as of late.
Patton Kizzire (FantasyAces $6,500) – Welp, the kid can definitely play, and he nearly became rookie #3 to win this year last week at the Sanderson. He’s top 10 in SG:P, 16th in Birdie Average, and seems completely unfazed by his transition into the PGA – a pretty safe bet with relatively capped ownership due to low name recognition.
Charles Howell III (FantasyAces $6,200) – I’m not sure I’ve ever recommended Howell, but he has generally been an exceptional cut-maker who gets faded more often than not by the field just because he’s not great at that whole winning thing. Nevertheless, he’s carded a T17 and T10 in 2/3 events and has made the cut in all three and continues to be one of the longer and more consistent players on tour. It’s not a cheap price, but he’s steady and a good hedge against riskier plays down below.
THE VALUE
Jhonattan Vegas (FantasyAces $6,000)
So when I refer to big-scoring value, Vegas really, really fits the bill here. He’s boom-town long, has been remarkably accurate even with his length, is putting brilliantly, and is now 3/3 on cuts made this year with a T10 at the Frys and T4 at the Sanderson Farms. It’s probably the highest price you’ll ever pay for him, but I fully expect him to be low-owned and worth every penny.
o Course History: Made three out of four cuts, did place T19 in 2010 here.
o Form: Looking sharp. Made all three cuts this year and put in a T10 and T4 in two of them.
o Stats: Exceptional. 44th in Driving Distance, 29th in GIR%, 16th in SG:T-G, 53rd in SG:P, 18th in Scoring Average
o Other: Not a lot of trust in this guy on the whole, I have a feeling we’ll see a lot more Patrick Rodgers/Matt Kuchar/scrub constructions than Vegas plays.
Patrick Rodgers (FantasyAces $6,500)
So why am I putting Rodgers in this section when he’s this expensive? Well, because frankly, I didn’t have enough room in the obvious section to fit him in. That doesn’t take anything away from the fact that he perfectly exemplifies “birdie machine” when he gets the ball rolling, and it’s only a matter of time before he ships one. This week makes for a very promising candidate.
o Course History: T37 last year.
o Form: Has made all three cuts this year going T6 at Frys, T13 at Shriners, and T20 at the Sanderson. There’s a reason why you’re paying top dollar for him.
o Stats: 7th in SG:T-G, 34th in Birdie Average, 11th in Scoring Average, 16th in GIR%
o Other: Likely to be quite popular, but may still have a little bit of low name recognition and hesitance due to the high price.
Smylie Kaufman (FantasyAces $5,000)
Oh, so the rookie who already shipped the Shriners had an off week at the Sanderson, yet you can still buy him for this price? Great, let everyone else fade him, you’re smarter than that. Kaufman clearly has the upside to win, particularly in this chump field. Play with confidence.
o Course History: No CH here.
o Form: T54 last week at Sanderson, but before that he won the Shriners and finished T10 at the Frys.com.
o Stats: 34th in Driving Distance, 30th in SG:T-G, 29th in Birdie Average, 14th in Scoring Average.
o Other: Low name recognition will still cap his ownership, though at this price I’m sure we’ll see a rather substantial contingent of buyers.
Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
Spencer Levin (FantasyAces $5,700) – Not sure what happened to make this guy turn it on, but he’s looked sharp as of late, and with a short course I can’t really avoid the recommendation. He’s made all three cuts and has gone T17 and T25 at the CIMB and Shriners respectively. Not known as a birdie machine, but he’s been bucking that rep a bit with his scoring lately.
Jamie Lovemark (FantasyAces $4,600) – Low name recognition, tons of length, and coming off a MC at the Sanderson Farms where he whiffed by one shot? I’m buying! Lovemark slams the ball off the tee (9th in Driving Distance) and has the talent to play exceptional golf when he turns it on, evidenced by his great Web.com season last year and T13 at the Shriners. A strong, contrarian value at this price.
Hudson Swafford (FantasyAces $4,450) – It’s so easy to recommend Swafford because he’s so unlikely to disappoint. A guy with his talent and statistical profile should really be much more expensive, but his every-so-often punts (like the Shriners) just keep him in this nice, affordable range. Otherwise, he’s a statistical monster in virtually every relevant category, has put up two top-25 finishes this season, and is a threat to contend, particularly in a weak field.
THE SCRUBS AND SLEEPERS
Jon Rahm (FantasyAces $4,350)
JON RAHM ALERT! Along with Austin Cook, ASU’s Rahm was easily one of the best-kept secrets on the PGA tour last year when he’d show up to play once in a while. If you’re sickos like us, you might remember the fact that he legitimately contended at the Waste Management last year all the way to the final round – as an amateur. This guy is seriously talented, and very few people will be buying him at this exceptional price.
o Course History: MC last year, but he’s young and improving.
o Form: He was ranked the #1 amateur in the world at the end of August.
o Stats: He was third in the history of NCAA season stroke average behind only Bill Haas and Maverick McNealy in 2014-2015. I’ll take my chances.
o Other: Nobody knows who he is, and this price is amazing for a guy with his upside.
Greg Owen (FantasyAces $4,050)
Weak field, relatively hot hand, and surprisingly good statistical profile? Yeah, seems like a Greg Owen week. The journeyman hasn’t exactly put up any stunning finishes this season, but he’s 3/3 on made cuts and has the scoring profile we’re looking for at a course like this as well as the CH to back it up. A great GPP flier who will likely be very low-owned.
o Course History: MC last year (by one shot at -2), T16 in 2011, T20 in 2008.
o Form: Not bad with the three made cuts, but not wowing anybody with nothing better than a T43 at the Shriners.
o Stats: This is what we’re interested in. 22nd in Driving Distance, 27th in SG:T-G, 92nd in GIR%, and top 100 in Birdie Average. It’s not amazing, but he should be able to handle rain reasonably well with his length.
o Other: Definitely low-owned.
Scott Stallings (FantasyAces $4,300)
Yeah, Greg Owen is a pretty dicey rec, and Scott Stallings is not a whole lot better. Coming off his PED suspension, however, Stallings is putting together a very nice start to the season, carding a T28 at the Sanderson and a T16 at the Shriners. He probably won’t win here, but we know he’s capable of competing with substantially better players (Torrey Pines) and the price is right.
o Course History: 0/2 on cuts, sadly.
o Form: Two good finishes at the Sanderson and Shriners in the past two weeks.
o Stats: This is a bit of a mess, but he’s top 100 in most of our key stats (Driving Distance, SG:T-G, Birdie Average) and tends to be streaky, so you’re betting on him performing well above his EV this week.
o Other: Near zero ownership, guaranteed.
Honorable Mentions (mix into your lineups)
Seung-yul Noh (FantasyAces $4,200) – Noh has been a frustrating golfer to forecast due to his ridiculous inconsistency. However, he came up with a solid T20 finish last week, and has had moments over the past few seasons where he has looked like a guy who knows how to win, even if only for a week. Call it a feel play, but he’s 2/2 on made cuts here and tends to thrive in scrubby fields. Throw a dart.
John Huh (FantasyAces $4,400) – Weird to call him a sleeper given that he won the event, but he seems to really like the course and has not finished worse than T30 in three starts here. On the other hand, his season has been basically garbage up until last week, and even then it was just a slight flicker with a T39 at the Sanderson. I expect some people will be buying him at this price due to his CH, and it’s not unreasonable to give him a few shots.
Carlos Ortiz (FantasyAces $4,650) – Ortiz was rather disappointing a few weeks ago when I gave him the nod with a meh T32 at the Frys, but we’ve seen him turn it on before with his nasty putter (13th in SG:P) and the course history looks very solid with a T9 here in his first start last year. I don’t love the price, but frankly I can’t hold down the puke any longer from recommending PGA swill.
Thanks for reading, and good luck to all of you from all of us at FGI! Follow me on Twitter (@DRogerCasey) if you have any questions – I’m always happy to help!