With the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and occasionally Manchester City under-performing and struggling for form, we ask the question, ‘are the big 6, still big?’
Why do team performances matter?
Gameweek 12 saw Tottenham just scraping past Hull City – Arsenal failing to beat a struggling Manchester United and Liverpool slumping to a disappointing loss at Crystal palace. The question must be asked, can these four giants of the Premier League pick up their act in the coming weeks, and provide us with top-end Fantasy Premier League assets?
You may be asking “What does it matter how a team is playing if individual players are still producing?” It’s a good question, and in some cases, you’d be right. Team form isn’t always an issue – generally if a player is good enough to be “Fixture Proof”, you are fine. But any defensive assets are massively impacted by team form, and offensive threats are affected too. Say a player would be involved in 60% of their team’s goals (scoring or assisting). If their team scores half as many goals, so do they. Of the players who have scored 200+ points since 2011, 10 out of 13 of them have finished in the top 4, with only Suarez (7th) in 2012/13 and Dempsey (9th) in 2011/12 coming outside the top 6. Now that’s a nice stat!
So, here’s my take on the outlook of Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United in the coming weeks in an attempt to help fantasy football managers and answer the question – “Do they still have top assets, or is it time to jump ship?”
Arsenal – 8th in the Barclays Premier League
Fixtures: wba / SOT / stk / NEW / liv / QPR / whu / sot / STK / mci
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It’s a mixed bag of fixtures for the Gunners. I think Southampton will be looking at their trip to the Emirates in Gameweek 14 as the place most likely to yield points in their run of awful games and won’t go away without a fight.
Form Analysis: Arsenal have been struggling to put a run together. If we take a slightly deeper look at their points over the last few games it’s hard to find any positives at all. A 2-0 win against Sunderland away. Not bad right? This was GW9 where Sunderland had just come off their 8-0 battering by Southampton. Immediately having to take on big bully Arsenal, all they were looking to do was not get battered again. They were so in their shell defensively it was only a matter of time (and a shocking Mannone error) until a Gunners goal, and a 3-0 win at HOME to Burnley is hardly a stormer. Before that – a draw against Hull. What’s even scarier for Gunners fans is that Alexis Sanchez has scored or assisted a whopping 77% of their goals in that period. A silver lining is that Giroud, Walcott and Ramsey are coming back from injury, but that added squad will be needed as they are likely to progress in the Champion’s League because of their ‘easy’ group.
Prospects: Owners of mid-priced forward Danny Welbeck have enjoyed modest returns (considering his cheap-ish price) but now is the time to ditch. Sadly. Oliver Giroud’s return will impact gametime too severely, and Arsenal don’t have the form to carry him through. Giroud, Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey all have fantasy potential, but while recovering from injury in a confidence-shot side, now is not the time. In defence, because of his cheap price-tag, Calum Chambers isn’t a bad option, but his penchant for yellow cards, and Arsenal’s average defensive form don’t make him that attractive to me. However, Alexis Sanchez really is one of those players who bucks the team form and is pretty close to fixture proof. He’s the only Arsenal player I’d consider drafting in at the moment.
Fancy Arsenal to finish in the Top 4 again this season? Treat yourself to a Betfred £25 Free Bet and join Arsene Wenger in his quest for fourth.
Liverpool: 12th in the Barclays Premier League
Fixtures: STO / lei / SUN / mun / ARS / bur / SWA / LEI / sun / avl
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Irritatingly for Liverpool, these good fixtures are coming at the worst time. Liverpool’s form isn’t good enough without Daniel Sturridge to make proper gains out of this lovely run. Though I suppose a hard run of fixtures could be just as costly. If fixtures alone were important, Liverpool would be a great prospect.
Form Analysis: It just keeps getting worse for Rodgers. The selling of Suarez could have been fine – a class Defender or two and a replacement brilliant striker were all that was needed in the 1st team. Instead he went for quantity over quality, and took risks on age (Lambert) and temperament (Balotelli) in replacing his star striker. If it wasn’t for narrowly scraping a few wins (Other than 3-0 against Spurs, all of their wins have been by 1 goal), and the relative patchy form of rivals, they would be even further off the top 4. The big defensive issue is bad enough, but their real problem is in their attacking fluidity. The real danger last year was with Surez, Sturridge AND Sterling all running at different angles against defenders, which opened up huge pockets of space for Gerrard and Henderson to slide balls into. With Suarez gone and Sturridge out, it doesn’t matter how well Raheem Sterling plays, he just doesn’t have the space to operate. And with midfielders not distracted by the carnage-inducing runs of the aforementioned strikers, they have much more time to close down Steven Gerrard, limiting his potential. Until Sturridge comes back, Liverpool will continue to struggle. They can only hope that he is enough.
Prospects: Defensively, the Alberto Moreno and Dejan Lovren experiments have failed. Liverpool are defensively disjoined and not potent enough in attack for their defenders to collect attacking returns. Stephen Gerrard has been Mr. Reliable for many years, but he keeps dropping deeper, and as previously stated, is being closed down too much. Liverpool are also less likely to win penalties with fewer pacey runs into the box. Mario Balotelli and Rickie Lambert will take game-time from each other, and rely too much on the players around them to profit without good team form. Now… Raheem Sterling. Sterling is a wonderful player, at a very reasonable price. But he is nowhere near the point in his development where he can carry a team on his own, and until Daniel Sturridge is fit enough to create space for him to run into, Sterling just isn’t worth the premium team spot. He should be ditched.
Manchester United: 4th (double checks) in the Barclays Premier League
Fixtures: HUL / STO / sot / LIV / avl / NEW / tot / sto / SOT / qpr
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Whilst it’s not a perfect string of fixtures ahead for Manchester United, the tough ones are spaced out quite nicely, and without Champion’s League or League Cup ‘distractions’ it could be much worse.
Form Analysis: What a difference a week makes. It feels as though their smash and grab victory against Arsenal away could be a really game-changer for The Red Devils, as 4 points from Chelsea, City and Arsenal looks significantly better than 1. At this stage of the Louis van Gaal team development program, he can be extremely happy to find his struggling side in the top 4. It’s not all a bed of roses, however. The Red’s injury list is still extensive, Daley Blind’s injury in particular is a big blow, and likely what caused LVG to employ 3 at the back again against Arsenal. Marouane Fellaini is finally doing well, however, which could mitigate the loss of Blind. Honestly, United are still a very tough side to analyse because of how changeable their line-up, tactics and form have been. However their performances have been, however, there has certainly been a notable improvement in their mental approach to games recently. To me, this indicates that LVG might be starting to instil an old confidence back into his squad.
Prospects: The United back-line has changed in every single game this year. Injuries and poor performances make investment in United’s back-line insane at the moment. Further forward, however, there’s a little more to think about. Angel Di Maria is on the expensive side of things, but has managed a few assists in a tough run of fixtures, and now things start to clear up he may well regain his explosive form. Wayne Rooney isn’t at his best at the moment, but with many managers looking to shift out Danny Welbeck and / or Graziano Pelle, Rooney could be an interesting differential if the funds can be found. Once Radamel Falcao returns from injury (returned to full training yesterday), he too could be a differential option in the united line-up. On the other hand, Robin van Persie is a bit of a joke at the moment if we are honest. He had 13 touches in the whole game against Arsenal, one being from kick off, another from a corner. It might be the beginning of the end for the flying Dutchman.
Tottenham Hotspur: 10th in the Barclays Premier League
Fixtures: EVE / che / CRY / swa / BUR / lei / MUN / CHE / cry / SUN
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Very mixed fixtures, certainly nothing to get excited about.
Form Analysis: Tottenham’s place in the table, a mere 2 points off the Top 4, flatters to deceive. The truth is they have been extremely lucky on several occasions. They were thoroughly out-played by Hull before the Red Card at the weekend, and their previous win was similar, Aston Villa being beaten by a Benteke Red Card. Losses to Stoke, Newcastle and Man City round up their last 5 fixtures. As far as FPL goes, however, Spurs do have a few prospects because of the relative Value / Cost of their assets. My analysis, however, is that Spurs players should be viewed as non-big-team differentials until their form improves. The higher the cost, the less appealing a Spurs player is right now.
Prospects: In defence, Spurs have little to offer while they are in this poor vein of form. A mention should be given to Danny Rose, however, who, at 5M could represent decent value if Spurs start to improve – offering a little attacking threat to augment defensive scores. In midfield, Eric Lamela is unpredictable form wise, and doesn’t offer enough goal threat to merit his price. Christian Eriksen is a better option, but while Spurs are still in a bit of a rut, any midfield Tottenham coverage should be assigned to Nacer Chadli (assuming his injury is short term). Chadli’s low price-tag is enough to offset his team’s below par performances, as he fills a different, non-premium role in your Fantasy Premier League squad. Going forward, Emmanuel Adebayor seems to have losLt his place (not that he was particularly good value anyway), but the boy he’s lost his place to, young Harry Kane is a very interesting prospect at just 4.9M. If you are planning on running a 3/5/2 formation, Kane is an excellent bench option and if he keeps his place, could even be a good addition to your first team, freeing up funds elsewhere.
Why are Chelsea and Manchester City not mentioned in the above options? Well, I’m sure you’d all agree that Chelsea’s currently 2014/15 can’t really be criticised; especially by me! Manchester City on the other hand have struggled but also shown signs of their true colours – Especially in last nights Champions League scrap against a 10-man Bayern Munich side which saw Sergio Aguero bag a hat-trick, which now puts him joint favourite alongside Diego Costa in the top goalscorer markets for this seasons Premier League.
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