By Ken Boehlke
Giants at Redskins
Spread – WAS -3.5
Moneyline – NYG +165 WAS -185
Total – 45.5
Side: Short weeks have grown increasingly unfair on the road team. Of course last week isn’t an excellent barometer because the Falcons would have destroyed Tampa Bay on any day but the 56-0 score had to have a little to do with it being Thursday Night. Look for the Redskins to throw the ball all over the yard on a Giants defense coming off a win against the putrid passing attack in Houston. Eli Manning does appear to be grasping the offense better, but it’s just too tall a task on short rest against a team who is much better than the 1-2 record indicates. Pick: Redskins -3.5
Total: Last week was exactly what we did not want to see from a betting perspective when it comes to the Giants. New York had appeared to be a team that would fall short of totals week in and week out as their west coast offense continued to struggle, but the effort they put forth against a very good Texan defense was certainly impressive. There is one concern however, and that is Washington’s run defense has been excellent thus far and Rashad Jennings’ ability to gain major yards seemingly at will had to open things up for Eli and the receiving corps. Let’s hope the number is inflated a bit after the good showing and Kirk Cousins and the suddenly dominant offense of the Redskins doesn’t burn us. Pick: Under 45.5
Dolphins at Raiders (at Wembley Stadium in London)
Spread – MIA -4
Moneyline – MIA -200 OAK +175
Total – 40.5
Side: Both teams had opportunities late in their Week 3 games in which each played rather poorly. The Raiders definitely deserve some credit for going into New England in the dreaded cross country early game situation and putting up a heck of a fight. However, the Patriots offense is not what it used to be, especially while Rob Gronkowski is sill hobbled. As for Miami, what a disaster of an afternoon trying to stop the usually weak Chiefs offense. The Dolphins couldn’t stop the run and Kansas City was actually able to pass on the Dolphins D. Now the Dolphins are favored? There is a slight concern for Oakland having to travel all the way to London after the long trip the prior week, but it’s not as much of a concern as how poorly Miami played a week ago. Pick: Raiders +4
Total: This game might be Ryan Tannehill’s last chance to keep his starting job, so there’s definitely going to be an extra sense of urgency, but the Raiders defense just made life a living hell for the great Tom Brady so they should be expected to do the same to the Dolphins. The game will hinge on how well Miami is able to pressure Derek Carr, which they should successful in doing. Turnovers have to be a concern with a number in the low 40’s, but it should be a safe bet as nether team is averaging 20 points per game through three weeks. Pick: Under 40.5
Packers at Bears
Spread – GB -1.5
Moneyline – GB -125 CHI +105
Total – 49.5
Side: The Bears had no business beating the Jets on Monday Night after they were handed call after call by some terrible officiating, and now they take on division row and rival Green Bay. The Packers on the other hand could not find their usual offensive prowess and are looking to rebound before the season spirals out of control. This looks like an excellent spot for Aaron Rodgers as the Bears defense has taken advantage of careless mistakes and turned them into scores. The Bears aren’t pressuring the QB as much their turnover ratio would indicate and the general rule of thumb is, give Rodgers time, watch Rodgers throw TD’s. Pick: Packers -125 (Don’t risk the 1.5 in a major rivalry game)
Total: The over train that is the Chicago Bears is back on the tracks after they played a game against the Jets that got over the total despite New York scoring just one touchdown in six red zone appearances. If the Packers are in the red zone six times, they will probably put up at least three touchdowns and a couple field goals. As for the Bears, that offense continues to shine. They weren’t great against the Jets but they did enough and New York has one of the toughest defenses to run against, which completely neutralized one of Chicago’s biggest weapons Matt Forte. Might sound crazy, but this one shouldn’t even need the fourth quarter to reach the number. Pick: Over 49.5
Bills at Texans
Spread – HOU -3
Moneyline – BUF +155 HOU -175
Total – 41
Side: After starting 0-2 the Bills fell completely on their face in what looked like a winnable home game against San Diego. Of course the Texans didn’t look much better in their trip to New York. Expect to see a much better game out of both, but the Texans are ultimately the better team and have the home turf advantage. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been nothing but average while E.J. Manuel has played much better than most thought. It’s likely that the Texans are in Manuel’s face much of the afternoon and the continued fear of throwing the ball more than 20 yards down the field will catch up with Buffalo. Pick: Texans -3
Total: As mentioned above each team is in line for a bit of an offensive bounce back. Aside from that, not much points to this one being a very high scoring affair. Arian Foster’s presence would be a huge lift to the Texans offense which sputtered with Alfred Blue handling a majority of the carries. It will definitely be a struggle for both offenses at times, but there should be enough scoring chances for this one to reach the total. Plus, both teams are prone to some bad turnovers that could throw the game out of whack. Pick: Over 41
Titans at Colts
Spread – IND -7.5
Moneyline – TEN +300 IND -360
Total – 45.5
Side: For the second week in a row the Colts will face a wounded duck. Last week they took apart the Jaguars and the same can be expected in this one with Tennessee. Indianapolis had a tough first two weeks and the spread has yet to adjust back to where it should be for a team of this caliber. This spread could be closer to 10 and the Colts high powered offense shouldn’t have any one afraid of the touchdown-plus number. The Titans looked helpless against the Bengals last week and didn’t look much better in their home opener with the Cowboys. They aren’t much better than Jacksonville who gave seven to Indy at home and were never even close to covering. Pick: Colts -7.5
Total: This game screams under, except for one major aspect of the Titans offense that might finally be fully unleashed this week. Running back Bishop Sankey could very easily be the difference between a below average Titans attack and a slightly above average one. In other words, if Sankey gets the full complement of carries he’s deserved since he got there, the Titans could push 20 total points. Figure that in with the 30+ the Colts should reach easily, and we’ve got a winner. Pick: Over 45.5
Panthers at Ravens
Spread – BAL -3
Moneyline – CAR +155 BAL -175
Total – 40.5
Side: The previously 2-0 Panthers were exposed on their home soil Monday Night when the Steelers came to town and completely out manned them. Reigning defensive MVP Luke Kuechley was a non-factor for the first time in 2014 and the Panthers defense crumbled. They were unable to stop Le’Veon Bell and had no answer for Antonio Brown. Baltimore does not have quite the elite weaponry Pittsburgh does, but they are very good at home and the stable of running backs got one deeper with Lorenzo Taliaferro proving his worth. Carolina might still be slightly overvalued at the moment, so now is the time to pounce before the market adjusts. Really wish the number was short of a field goal as it could be a low scoring game, but it’s not enough to change minds and back the Panthers. Pick: Ravens -3
Total: While it very easily could be a game played in the mid to high teens, there’s also the possibility that the Week 3 Panthers take their act on the road and allow bundles of points again. Carolina is obviously not the same along their front without Greg Hardy and it’s putting extra stress on a linebacking corps that while very good, isn’t great in coverage. Joe Flacco isn’t in the league’s elite (aside from his salary) but if he’s afforded time to throw the ball he’ll have no problem finding open guys in the space underneath the Carolina zones. Pick: Over 40.5
Lions at Jets
Spread – DET -1.5
Moneyline – DET -125 NYJ +105
Total – 45
Side: Detroit is known for having a good defense, but they are not known for winning games based solely on their defense’s performance. That’s exactly what they did against an excellent Packers offense. They completely shut down Rodgers and did not ever let Eddie Lacy get going. Now they face a Jets team that couldn’t seem to get the engines revved up against a still porous, yet opportunistic, Bears defense. The big fear is that of the bounce back for both teams. The Jets are angry after their Monday Night failure, while the Lions are coming off a massive victory against Green Bay. Let’s go with the better team against the one on the short week and hope the site of the game doesn’t burn us. Pick: Lions -1.5
Total: After as well as the Lions defense played this number appears to be way too high. Usually when we say that the next sentence disputes it. Not this time. The number is simply too high for a game in which the better offense is on the road and both defenses are incredibly proficient at getting to the quarterback. Each team will be able to cause problems for their oppositions passing attack by getting front four pressure, while each has also been stellar against the run. Not sure why this number is in the mid-40’s when it really could be in the high 30’s. Pick: Under 45
Buccaneers at Steelers
Spread – PIT -7
Moneyline – TB +300 PIT -360
Total – 44.5
Side: Lovie Smith’s Buccaneers were utterly embarrassed on national television and have officially become the laughing stock of the NFC. However, this is actually a solid situational spot for Tampa Bay. They are coming in off three extra days of rest, they were able to watch the Steelers put together their best effort of the season, and they almost have to be playing for their collective egos after the drubbing last Thursday. Add in the fact that the Steelers defense is banged up and the Buccaneers rush defense could cause problems to an offense that has learned to rely on Le’Veon Bell. It’s incredibly hard to look yourself in the mirror and pick Tampa Bay, but it’s the right side, and actually there’s a legitimate shot they win this game outright and cash some +300 tickets. Pick: Buccaneers +7
Total: Pittsburgh’s offense proved on Sunday Night that they are able to put up points against anybody anywhere. They also showed off their two dominant forces in Bell and Brown which are now beginning to look like two of the most nationally underrated players in the league. A week ago the Buccaneers were tortured by Julio Jones as Lovie Smith’s stubborn defensive mindset refused to move Alterran Verner onto Jones side. If Brown finds himself in front of Verner, he’ll likely be nearly neutralized, but if Smith continues to think he’s dictating the game, Antonio could be a star yet again. Bank on the latter, and the Bucs offense will eventually get out of its own way and figure out how to correctly utilize their two gigantic receivers. Pick: Over 44.5
Jaguars at Chargers
Spread – SD -13
Moneyline – JAX +650 SD -1000
Total – 44.5
Side: These two teams could not have had more opposite seasons thus far. The only similarity is that both played poorly in the second half in Week 1. Now, the Jaguars are traveling across the country to take on what has become a top notch AFC contender. San Diego has effectively turned themselves into a ball control team that wins games by simply not letting the other team have the ball, and when they are on defense, taking it right back. There is still the continued problem of the Chargers inability to finish tight games, but that shouldn’t come into play in this one. Jacksonville’s improved defense looks nothing of the sort. Black Bortles will get the start, but he’s kind of running into a buzz saw. It’s back door or bust for the Jags. Pick: Chargers -13
Total: With Bortles taking over for the Jaguars they are likely to attempt to open up the playbook a little more than they are used to in an effort to give him every chance they can to win the game. Unfortunately for the rookie QB, his offensive line is miserable and the Chargers front seven will be all over him the entire game. San Diego will remain a team in which the normal lean should be on the under based on their effectiveness in shortening games, but in this one you have to look the other way. Jacksonville will have a tough time stopping San Diego and the Jags will throw the ball all over the yard trying to catch up. Pick: Over 44.5
Eagles at 49ers
Spread – SF -5
Moneyline – PHI +205 SF -245
Total – 50.5
Side: Here’s another one of those cross country trips that tend to throw spreads all out of whack. But as we learned from the Chargers going into Buffalo and destroying the Bills, travel doesn’t trump talent. In this game the talent is relatively close, but the momentum is completely on the side of the Eagles. Philly is clicking on all cylinders offensively and their defense should get a bit of a break as the 49ers have had trouble scoring. Through three weeks the tendency is that the Eagles start slow and finish fast, while San Francisco does the exact opposite. Don’t bank on that happening again. There’s a good chance Philly jumps all over the Niners early and San Francisco will be forced to buck their nasty trend of getting shut out in the fourth. Pick: Eagles +5 (Place a portion on Eagles +205 as well)
Falcons at Vikings
Spread – ATL -3
Moneyline – ATL -150 MIN +130
Total – 46.5
Side: Yet another rookie QB will be taking the reigns in hopes of reviving a team’s season. In this case though Teddy Bridgewater has a shot to do some good things. Despite their ability to get through the awful Buccaneers O-Line, the Falcons have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. Bridgewater is cool and collected when he’s given time, and his legs will give him the option to make something out of nothing when Atlanta’s coverage holds up. Minnesota is building a nice little defense who gave Drew Brees and the Saints all they could handle in the dome a week ago. Hate to bank on a rookie in his first start, but the Vikings defense should be able to keep them afloat despite the growing pains. Pick: Vikings +3
Total: Atlanta’s offense went berserk against Tampa Bay on Thursday. Now, they’ll head to Minnesota off a few days of extra rest and are expecting Roddy White back in the ballgame. However, the Falcons offense fell flat on its face against a Cincinnati defense that is a better comparison to the Vikings than Tampa’s or New Orleans’ defenses. Atlanta’s run game will likely have a bit of trouble and unless Julio Jones can dominate his matchup the Falcons could have some trouble scoring again. Minnesota will again be without Adrian Peterson, so the expectation has to be more of the same from their attack. Pick: Under 46.5
Saints at Cowboys
Spread – NO -3.5
Moneyline – NO -165 DAL +145
Total – 53
Side: What are the 2014 New Orleans Saints? The offense that looked its usual self against the Falcons? The team that blew a lead and eventually lost to the Cleveland Browns? Or maybe the team that struggled yet held off the A.P.-less Vikings. They have been difficult to figure out thus far and their third road game out of four has them favored by just over a field goal against a Cowboy team the American public decided before they season started was terrible. Is it possible this Saints team really is not that great? This game will likely answer a lot of those questions, but picking it is almost like flipping a coin, because the Cowboys are impossible to figure out as well. Ummm, heads… No! Tails. Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Total: Everything about this game tells us it’s going to be a shootout in which the first team to 40 will win. However, the Dallas defense has actually been quite a bit better than what they were originally made out to be. Dallas is allowing 23 points per game while New Orleans is averaging 24 points against. Neither defense has been bad, but they’ve also come in contact with some really bad offenses (MIN, CLE, STL, TEN). Jimmy Graham was absent from the Week 3 game, so we can certainly expect him to get back to his normal ways. Good offense vs. below average defense on both sides of the ball, have to go over, even though the gigantic number might suggest otherwise. Pick: Over 53
Patriots at Chiefs
Spread – NE -3.5
Moneyline – NE -185 KC +165
Total – 45
Side: Tom Brady is 13-5 in Monday Night Football games, so betting against him in primetime probably isn’t the best idea. The spread is surprisingly a lot closer than one would probably suspect, likely due to Kansas City’s excellent Week 3 win and the fact that Jamaal Charles is expected back in the lineup. It will probably be more bad news for Charles fantasy owners though even if he does play he will be facing what has become a dominant defense. The Patriots rank 4th in the league in points allowed (16.3), third in the NFL in total yards allowed (272) and they are best in pass yards allowed (169). The Chiefs feasted on a Dolphins D that looked lost a week ago, they will not be afforded the same luxury against New England. The game should be close, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Bill Belichick’s boys run away with it. Pick: Patriots -3.5
Total: No matter which way you slice the statistics this game comes up pointing at the under. The Patriots don’t allow many points, the Chiefs don’t score many. The Chiefs don’t allow many, and the Patriots have been struggling to score as well. A healthy Charles and a healthier Rob Gronkowski will help both offensive units but it’ll be a defensive showdown on Monday Night. Both teams are committed to running the ball and each will refuse to abandon that game plan if they fall behind early. This isn’t yesteryear’s Patriots offense, and this is the same vanilla Chiefs team. The winner might score less than 20, and it’s possible one team doesn’t get into the double digits. Pick: Under 45
Listen to Over and Under with Ken Boehlke and Jason Pothier on CBS Sports Radio 1140 every Sunday morning from 8 to 10. Follow the show on Twitter @OAU1140 and on Facebook.