The UEFA Champions League continues this week with the first leg of the semifinals.
Sportsnet’s panel of soccer writers and broadcasters preview the matches and offer their predictions.
Wednesday programming alert: Watch Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich live on Sportsnet and Sportsnet World. Coverage begins at 2:30 pm ET/11:30 am PT. | Sportsnet World Online | TV schedule
Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Gerry Dobson: Until they get knocked from their perch the title holders are always the favourites in my mind. And yet there are plenty reasons to be concerned about Bayern Munich. In the Bundesliga, they’ve struggled mightily since wrapping up the title. It’s natural for a let down to take place, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time with the Champions League semifinals about to get underway. Even the boss is showing signs of worry. Yes, they ended a three-game winless run on the weekend, which came as a huge relief, but Pep Guardiola says they’ll need to be much better if they are to compete with Real Madrid. The signs of trouble go back farther. They weren’t exactly dominating against a terrible Manchester United in the quarterfinals and even before that in the round of 16 they were only average.
Even though it looks like an uphill battle to win La Liga, Real Madrid are flying high after their thrilling win in the Copa del Rey final. Gareth Bale’s astonishing goal is simply another sign he is emerging from the shadows of Cristiano Ronaldo. Bayern Munich has not faced an attacking team such as the Spanish giants this year and their backline will be severely tested and could be run ragged. Both Guardiola and Carlo Ancelotti have won this competition before and will not get fooled by anything the other team does. It’s only a question of trying to stop them. This should be very fun to watch.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 3-2.
John Molinaro: I agree with Gerry—this will be fun to watch and of the two semifinals, this should be the one to provide plenty of goals, entertainment and attacking soccer. Consider this: Real Madrid have scored in each of their last 17 Champions League home games, netting 55 goals in the process (3.2 goals per game), while Bayern Munich have scored in each of their last 15 Champions League games overall, the longest current run.
It would be brave to bet against Bayern, as they’ve swept all who’ve come before them this season, both domestically and in Europe. Consistency and balance are the two words that best describe the Bavarians, and no players better exemplify that than Philipp Lahm (one of the best passers in the world) and Arjen Robben. Say what you want about the Dutchman and his propensity for going down easily—the guy’s “got game.” Robben has scored seven goals and tallied five assists in his last 11 Champions League games.
Real, though, is the one team in the world that will give Bayern a serious test. Gareth Bale is in fine form, coming off that marvellous performance in last week’s Copa del Rey final, showing why he’s the most expensive player in the world. Cristiano Ronaldo has overcome injury issues and should be fit for this one. With both Bale and the Portuguese in the lineup, Bayern will have their hands full against a Real side noted for its quick-tempo game and for unlocking defences.
Prediction: A 2-2 draw.
Thomas Michalakos: We can all agree that this semifinal tie would have been better suited for the final. From a financial standpoint alone, the dream sequence would have proven to be extremely lucrative for everyone involved. Bayern are looking to become the first club since AC Milan (1989 and 1990) to successfully defend the European crown, and even more impressively the first to claim back-to-back trebles. Equally, Real Madrid are also chasing a piece of history; the much anticipated and elusive Decima (tenth European Cup), having last contested a final in 2002.
Instead of focusing on what might have been, I’d rather look at the positives. A sixth semifinal clash brings the return of Pep Guardiola to Madrid, the last manager to win a Champions League fixture at the Bernabeu. Since then, Real have posted a 17-match unbeaten record (15 wins). If that’s not enough drama, current los blancos boss Carlo Ancelotti was a member of the famed Rossoneri dynasty that claimed consecutive European trophies. The past has no bearing on the present, though it does create plenty of interesting talking points before a ball is kicked. Bayern have the edge looking at overall results–11 victories to Madrid’s seven in 20 meetings–the most recent being a penalty shootout win two years ago in the same fixture. News of Cristiano Ronaldo returning to full training this week has given Real a reassuring boost of confidence, though Copa Del Rey match-winner Gareth Bale might miss out due to the flu-like symptoms.
Prediction: Real Madrid wins 2-1.
Tuesday programming alert: Watch Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea live on Sportsnet and Sportsnet World. Coverage begins at 2:30 pm ET/11:30 am PT. | Sportsnet World Online | TV schedule
Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea
James Sharman: If Jose Mourinho shuts his eyes and envisions his perfect team, it may well resemble his opponent. Atletico Madrid have arguably the best defence in Europe—they are tenacious with a nasty edge, and ruthless in front of goal with a world class forward in Diego Costa.
Mourinho’s Chelsea is still a work in progress; to believe the Special One is to accept that this season was really just a get-to-know-each other exercise ahead of a major transition this summer. Of course he’d love for us to believe that, but the reality is that Chelsea remains one of the top squads in the game, and are a force to be reckoned with even with the lack of that world-class striker. That is the area in which most eyes will be focused on Tuesday at the Vicente Calderon. Samuel Eto’o is the most trusted of Mourinho’s goal scorers, however Demba Ba has three goals in three Champions League matches, and the maligned Fernando Torres is a legend at this Spanish ground. Does that motivation earn him the start?
The Blues are coming off a dramatic and controversial loss to Sunderland on the weekend, a result that may well have handed next week’s opponents Liverpool the title. Atletico on the other hand keep on marching in Spain. Diego Simeone—perhaps soon to be the most in demand manager in Europe—has his side in first place and on the cusp of a historic La Liga title. On form, it might be argued this side could be the favourite to add a double to his resume.
Prediction: A 1-1 draw.
James Doyle: Let’s call this tie an experiment in the benefits of consistency. All things being equal, does the more consistent team prevail against the more erratic? On the one hand, Atletico are enjoying a long, steady rise in fortune that has taken them straight to the top of La Liga and their first Champions League semifinal since 1974. They haven’t lost since Feb. 23, and have only drawn twice—to Real Madrid and Barcelona, not incidentally—winning 10 times and earning eight clean sheets.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are a different team every time they take the field. Since Feb. 22 they’ve lost to Aston Villa (15th in the Premier League), and crushed Tottenham (6th); they’ve fallen to Crystal Palace (11th), yet scorched Arsenal (4th) 6-0; they’ve just lost to Sunderland (rock bottom at 20th) only 11 days after a heroic win over Paris St. Germain.
So Tuesday is all about which Chelsea side shows up. Atletico away is always tough, but after a huge upset all but cost Chelsea their title run this weekend, it’s hard to think they’ll be in the frame of mind to overcome at the Vicente Calderon. Not with the unstoppable (and apparently invincible) Diego Costa in the game. Not with Eden Hazard (likely) out of it.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid wins 2-1.