The Green Bay Packers have been so bad lately that even oddsmakers are giving up on them.
When the opening odds for Week 11 were released on Sunday night, the Packers opened as an underdog for just the second time this year.
When the Packers travel to Washington this week, they’ll be a 2.5 point underdog, which shouldn’t be a shock to anyone who’s watched Green Bay play over the past five weeks.
Dating back to Week 6, the Packers are just 1-4, with that one win coming against the horrible Chicago Bears . The Packers defense has played a large part in the collapse with the unit surrendering 30.2 points per game over the past five weeks.
The Packers defense has been especially ugly over the past three weeks, with Green Bay surrendering 47, 31 and 33 points in three straight losses.
The odd thing about the Packers being an underdog is that it doesn’t happen often. Including last year’s playoffs, the Packers have only been an underdog in five out of their past 28 games. In those five games, the Packers are just 2-3 straight-up, but 4-1 against the spread.
That being said, don’t be surprised if Aaron Rodgers plays like a man possessed in Washington. A loss to the Washington Redskins would be Green Bay’s fourth loss in a row, something that Rodgers hasn’t experienced as a quarterback since his first year as a starter in 2008.
It’s been a rough year for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. USATSI
Alright, let’s get to the odds.
NFL Week 11 early odds
(All lines via VegasInsider.com)
All games on Sunday, unless noted
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6) (Opening line: Panthers, -4.5 points) Thursday
Current line: Panthers, (-4 points). Both of these teams are coming off of painful losses in Week 10, a fact that just might favor the Saints. Since the beginning of 2015, New Orleans is 9-4 ATS after a loss, which is the third-best mark in the NFL over that span. As for the Panthers, betting on them in a division game might not be the best idea. Carolina is 0-3 straight up in 2016, and is 3-6 ATS against the NFC South since the beginning of 2015. That’s the worst ATS mark of any NFC team against divisional opponents over that span. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 41-38 back in Week 6.
Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5) (Opening line: Colts, -3.5 points)
Current line: Colts, (-3 points). These teams just met in Week 7 with the Colts going into Nashville and knocking off the Titans 34-26. That outcome wasn’t exactly a shock though because Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee. Since Luck’s rookie year in 2012, the Colts are 9-0 straight-up against the Titans and 8-1 ATS. The Colts will be coming off a bye, which is good news for them because they’re 3-1 ATS and 3-1 straight-up with Luck coming off a bye. If you’re thinking of betting this game, you might want to look at the over (52.5 points). Each of the Titans’ past five games have gone over that mark.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4) (Opening line: Lions, -6.5 points)
Current line: Lions, (-6.5 points). Although the Jaguars struggle against everyone, they really struggle against NFC teams. Since the beginning of 2013, the Jags are just 2-12 straight-up and 2-13 ATS against NFC teams. The Jags are also a disaster on the road, going 2-10 straight-up since the beginning of 2015. Betting on Blake Bortles right now might not be the best idea: The Jags quarterback threw his ninth pick-six in Week 10, the most that any quarterback has thrown since the beginning of 2014. Jacksonville will be going into the game on four-game losing streak, which is tied for the second longest losing streak in the AFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) (Opening line: Chiefs, -7.5 points)
Current line: Chiefs, (-7.5 points). The Chiefs are winning games, but they’re not covering. Despite taking a 7-2 record into Week 11, the Chiefs are just 4-4-1 ATS this season, which can make them a risky bet. Although Arrowhead Stadium can be a tough place to play, it might not bother the Buccaneers, who are 3-1 both straight-up and ATS in road games this season. The Bucs also have history on their side: They haven’t lost to the Chiefs since 1993. One other nugget: The Chiefs are 18-2 straight-up in their past 20 regular season games.
Bears (2-7) at New York Giants (5-3 prior to Monday’s game) (Opening line: Giants, -6 points)
Current line: Giants, (-6 points). If we’ve learned one thing about the Bears this year, it’s that betting against them in a road game is basically a lock. Not only is Chicago 0-5 straight-up on the road, but they’re also 0-5 ATS. The Bears have lost their last two road games by an average of 21 points, a total that includes a 36-10 loss to Tampa in Week 10.
Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4) (Opening line: Pick’em)
Current line: Pick’em. One of the lowest over/unders of Week 11 (41 points) is in this game, which isn’t exactly shocking since the Cardinals and Vikings will bring two of the NFL’s top-3 defenses into Minnesota. Playing a top defense isn’t exactly what the Vikings need right now. Minnesota is currently on a four-game losing streak and has only averaged 14 points per week over the past four games. The good news for the Vikings is that they’re playing at home where they’re an NFL-best 10-3 ATS since the beginning of 2015. These two teams played last year in Arizona with the Cardinals winning 23-20.
Buffalo Bills (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1 prior to Monday’s game) (Opening line: Bengals, -4 points)
Current line: Bengals, (-4 points). The Bills have been the streakiest team in football this year. First, they opened the season by losing two in a row, then they won four in a row, and now they’re on a four-game losing streak. To break that streak, they’re going to have to do something that’s never easy: Beat the Bengals in Cincinnati in a 1 p.m. game. The myth of Daytime Dalton stems from the fact that the Bengals are 16-3-1 straight-up at home since 2012 in games that kickoff at 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (7-1) (Opening line: Cowboys, -7 points)
Current line: Cowboys, (-7 points). Although the Ravens are seven-point underdogs in this game, don’t write them off just yet. For one, the Ravens are almost impossible to blow out. Baltimore has the NFL’s top-ranked defense, and that defense has been so good that the Ravens have been in every game they’ve played. Their four losses have come by one, six, four, and eight points. One thing the Ravens haven’t been good at though is covering the spread on the road. Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are an NFL-best 8-1 ATS overall in 2016. Also, you don’t have to worry about a QB controversy in this game. The Cowboys have already announced that Tony Romo won’t be taking Dak Prescott ‘s spot when Romo returns on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-4-1) (Opening line: Steelers, -8.5 points)
Current line: Steelers, (-9 points). Nothing screams blowout quite like Big Ben vs. the Cleveland Browns. Since the beginning of 2013, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are 5-1 straight-up against the Browns, with four of those wins coming by 13 or more points. It’s probably also worth noting that the Browns have been terrible in divisional games lately. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, Cleveland has gone 1-8 both straight-up and ATS against AFC North opponents. That being said, there could be some hope for Cleveland to at least cover. The Steelers are just 1-3 ATS on the road this year, which is the worst mark of any AFC team in 2016.
Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5) (Opening line: Pick’em)
Current line: Rams, (-1 point). In what might be the weirdest stat of the year, the Rams are 2-1 this season in games where they don’t score a touchdown and 2-3 in games where they do. That basically tells you how many times the Rams offense has been bailed out by their defense this year. Despite the fact that the Rams have the 31st-ranked offense in the NFL, coach Jeff Fisher plans to start Case Keenum against the Dolphins. In this game, the safest bet might be the under (40.5 points). The Rams have gone under that number in their past three games and have held their opponents to an average of just 12 points per game over the past three weeks.
New England Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8) (Opening line: Patriots, -14 points)
Current line: Patriots, (-14 points). As if things aren’t already bad enough for the 49ers this season, they have to face a Patriots team coming off a loss, which is never good news for the other team. Since 2013, the Patriots are 11-2 straight-up coming off a loss and 10-3 ATS. This game will match up the NFL’s second best ATS team in 2016 (New England at 7-2) against the second worst (San Francisco at 2-7). The Patriots are 4-0 on the road this season both ATS and straight-up. This game could be a disaster for the 49ers.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1) (Opening line: Seahawks, -4.5 points).
Current line: Seahawks, (-4.5 points). Beating the Seahawks at home has almost been impossible to do during Russell Wilson ‘s career. Since Wilson was drafted in 2012, the Seahawks are 31-5 straight-up at home, although that hasn’t meant much in regards to the spread. Sure, Seattle is 4-0 at home in 2016, but they’re just 2-2 ATS. Of course, betting the Eagles in a road game might be the biggest mistake you could ever make: Philly is 1-4 both straight-up and ATS in five road games this season.
Packers at Redskins (Opening line: Redskins, -3 points)
Current line: Redskins, (-2.5 points). When it comes to the spread, the Redskins have been one of the best teams in football lately: They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. On the other hand, the Packers have been one of the coldest teams in football in recent weeks. Not only are the Packers on a three-game losing streak, but they’re 0-2 ATS over the past two weeks. Don’t be surprised if the Packers defense gets lit up in this game. Over their past five games, Green Bay’s defense is giving up an average of 30.2 points per game.
Houston Texans (6-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City (Opening line: Raiders, -3.5 points)
Current line: Raiders, (-5 points). One thing to keep in mind for this game is that it’s being played at an elevation of 7,382 feet, which is where Mexico City stands above sea level. If you thought teams had trouble in the Mile High air of Denver (5,280 feet), just wait until you see these two teams play here. Of course, the Raiders will probably be slightly more adjusted since they get to play one game in Denver per year (the Texans also played at Denver this year, and lost 27-9). The Raiders are 6-3 ATS overall this year, which is tied for the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Even if we don’t count the elevation, the Texans have been horrible on the road in 2016, going 1-3 both ATS and straight-up.
Bye week: Denver Broncos , San Diego Chargers , Atlanta Falcons , New York Jets
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